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Technical Levels Give Direction to Markets O c t o b e r 2 0 0 8 The publication for trading and investment professionals www.technicalanalyst.co.uk GGloballobal SelSell OOffff TTeecchnicalhnical llevelsevels ggiveive ddirectionirection ttoo mmarketsarkets Interview Techniques Special Feature Jason Perl of UBS talks Trading the futures markets Chris Charlton of about DeMark indicators with Howe’s Limit Rule Centa AM discusses currency asset management 7HEN THE MARKETS MOVING FAST YOUR TRADING SYSTEMS NEED TO MOVE FASTER 4HATS WHY EIGHT OF THE TOP TEN GLOBAL lNANCIAL INVESTMENT lRMS USE 6HAYU 6ELOCITY4- )T WAS DESIGNED SPECIlCALLY FOR MISSION CRITICAL MANAGEMENT OF REAL TIME MARKET DATA !ND ITS THE ONLY #%0 SOLUTION THAT INTEGRATES STREAM PROCESSING WITH A HISTORICAL TICK DATABASE n BECAUSE TO MAKE SENSE OF CURRENT MARKETS THE SMARTEST lRMS LEARN FROM THE PAST 4HE -ARKET IS $ATA4- ¥ 6HAYU 4ECHNOLOGIES #ORP !LL RIGHTS RESERVED ÜÜÜ°Û >ÞÕ°V WELCOME Just when you thought things couldn’t get any worseHwith sentiment being so negative at the moment for all markets, not just stocks, it is perhaps time to take a contrary view, as advocated by Anthony Bolton. Technical analysis has much to offer in this area and the indicators of Tom DeMark work specifically as a coun - tertrend signal generator for both the short and long term. In this issue we summa - rize DeMark’s recent talk in London, review a new book on his indicators, and look at the D-Wave, a DeMark take on Elliott Wave formations. We hope you enjoy this issue of the magazine Matthew Clements, Editor CONTENTS 1 > FEATURES OCTOBER US stocks: 1973/74 revisited We summarise Tom DeMark’s recent talk at Bloomberg’s offices in London and the views he >08 gave on the markets 2008: presidential election cycle update >18 Dimitri Speck of Seasonal Charts looks again at the cycle and how stock markets may move as the election day approaches Interview We speak to Jason Perl, head of technical analysis at UBS about how he uses DeMark > 41 indicators in his client research © 2008 Global Markets Media Limited. All rights reserved. Neither this publication nor any part of it may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without the prior permission of Global Markets Media Limited. While the publisher believes that all information contained in this publication was correct at the time of going to press, they cannot accept liability for any errors or omissions that may appear or loss suffered directly or indirectly by any reader as a result of any advertisement, editorial, photographs or other material published in The Technical Analyst. No statement in this publication is to be considered as a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell securities or to provide investment, tax or legal advice. Readers should be aware that this publication is not > > intended to replace the need to obtain professional advice in relation to any topic discussed. October 2008 THE TECHNICAL ANALYST 1 TradeStationTTrrradeadedeSSttaattion® Introduced by TradeStationTradeStationStation Europe Limited YourYour Money.Moneyoney. YourYour Rules. Create, back-testback-testck-test and optimizemize your tradtradingingng strategies. Design, TestTest and Optimize YourYour TTradingrading Strategiestrategies Monitor andd Execute TradesTrades in Real TimeTime Customize your own trading strategies and back-testback-test them TradeStationTradeStationr is continuously monitoring the marketarket ticktick-by--by- against decades of historicalistorical intraday market data. Analyzenalyze your tick according to your defined rules. Reacting to your signals performance via TradeStation’sTradeStation’seStation’s Strategy PPerformanceerformancee Report. YouYou is a critical stepp in the trading process. Reducee latency and can then optimize yourur strategy based upon the variousous inputs unnecessary third-partyhird-party applications by automatingating execution you have defined, and then view these results via our Strategy via TradeStationTradeStationn Securities. Our DDVPVP and Give-UpUp services allow Optimization Report. you to maintainn your current custodial relationshiphip while taking advantage of TradeStation’sTradeStation’s unique technology.technologyy. Use TradeStation Simulator to test your strategies in live market trading — without risking a cent! TradeStation’s new trading Simulator brings an even greater level of confidence to your trading, allowing you to harness the power of TradeStation’s award-winning platform and test your trading ideas in real time in today’s markets—without risking your own money. No matter which markets you trade or would like to begin trading—equities, options, futures or forex—Simulator allows you to see how your ideas would perform under “live” market conditions—with no financial risk whatsoever. Simulator is a great way to get live, hands-on experience with all the advanced features of TradeStation, as well as to experiment with trading strategies and ideas in markets you may not have traded before, such as forex. BESTBEST StockStock TradingTrading SystemSystem BESTBEEST RATEDRAATEDTED BEST FOR:FOR: BESTBEST OptionsOptionsp ns TradingTradingg SystemSystemy ProfessionalPrrofessional Platform Frequent TradersTraders Trading TechnologyTechnology BESTBEST OptionsOptionsns AnalysisAnalysis SoftwareSoftware Options TradersTradersr Trade ExperienceExperience BESTBEST FuturesFuturees TradingTrading SystemSystem BESTBEEST IInternationalnternational TradersTraders BESTBEST FuturesFuturees Brokerage InstitutionalInstitutional Platform “BARRON’S new overall champ...” 4 YEARS IN A ROWW 2005-2008 6 YEARS IN A ROW 2003-2008 MARCH 2008 16 47 CONTENTS 2 >REGULARS MARKET VIEWS Editor: Matthew Clements FTSE 100: major low at 3277 04 Managing Editor: Jim Biss Consultant Editor: Trevor Neil AUS/USD: outlook to the downside 06 Advertising & subscriptions: US stocks: 1973/74 revisited 08 Louiza Charalambous Marketing: Vanessa Green Events: Adam Coole Design & Production: SPECIAL FEATURE Stuart Field Currency Asset Management 10 The Technical Analyst is published by TECHNIQUES Howe’s Limit Rule 16 2008: Presidential Election Cycle Update 18 Global Markets Media Ltd Jeffries House Observations on Lunar Phase & US Panics 22 1-5 Jeffries Passage Stumbling on Value Investing 25 Guildford Volatility Trading using the VIX 28 GU1 4AP UK TD-Wave - A rule based approach to Elliott Wave analysis 32 Sizing up a Superpower: a Socionomic Study of Russia 34 Tel: +44 (0)1483 573150 Web: www.technicalanalyst.co.uk Email: [email protected] INTERVIEW SUBSCRIPTIONS Jason Perl, UBS Investment Bank 41 Subscription rates (6 issues) UK: £160 per annum Rest of world: £185 per annum RESEARCH UPDATE 45 Electronic pdf: £49 per annum For information, please contact: [email protected] BOOK REVIEW DeMark Indicators 47 ADVERTISING For information, please contact: [email protected] TRAINING DIARY 48 PRODUCTION Art, design and typesetting by Stuart Field. Printed by Goodman Baylis ISSN(1742-8718) October 2008 THE TECHNICAL ANALYST 3 Market Views FTSE 100: major low at 3277 By Sandy Jadeja Sandy Jadeja 4 THE TECHNICAL ANALYST October 2008 Market Views The financial markets have been hit by a tornado of selling which has taken major indices to new five year lows. The question on investors and traders minds is how bad can this really get? Support levels bar before attempting to buy a particular stock. Many have The UK FTSE 100 index has already lost 37% from the July tried to capture bargains in the financial stocks only to have 2007 high of 6754. A bear market is considered if a decline found that the pain of losing can be excruciating as it has of 20% or more is in place. Clearly we have surpassed this been in this particular sector. and sentiment figures are showing that we are already in a If we take seasonality and cycles into consideration, the bear market. One should remember that the rally we saw year 2007 was already flagged as being a potential high. We from March 2003 reached a high of +106% and so the know that years ending with sevens tend to be marked by decline can be counted as a retracement, albeit a major one. market highs and years ending with twos offer market lows. Unless we surpass 3277 on the FTSE - which equates to the This suggests that we are likely to be in a bear market until neckline of a double top formation (see Figure 1) - the cur - 2012, with a strong corrective rally during 2009. The major rent move is still classified as a correction. indices had also reach Fibonacci Price Extensions and Elliott Wave traders had seen a major five wave pattern pointing to a market fall. Turning points In the current market if one were to use oscillators and lag - ging indicators, such as moving averages, one would find that these tools would be rendered useless. The market has tech - nically been oversold for three months now and oscillators tend to perform poorly in trending markets. For short term forecasts a break above the weekly high is far more superior for the bulls and vice versa for the bears. Price tools have always been more powerful than indicators which are simply Figure 1 derivatives of price anyway. Technically the key support levels are 4605 and 4020 of Analysing open interest figures has shown that there have which the latter should hold the index up. If we fail to stay clearly been more sellers than buyers recently and volume on above 4020 this would have serious implications for the the downside has been three times greater than the upside on index as the next support level would be below the major low average. This is typical in downtrends once panic kicks in. We coming in at 3277. Although this sounds unrealistic we still do not have a full out bearish sentiment at the extreme should remember that when oil had been trading at $37 dur - which is required to see a major reversal. Time analysis points ing 2003, expecting the commodity to reach a gain of more to October 14-17 or the last week of October as potential than 400% also seemed unrealistic.
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