Global Manipulation by Local Obfuscation ∗ Fei Liy Yangbo Songz Mofei Zhao§ August 26, 2020 Abstract We study information design in a regime change context. A continuum of agents simultaneously choose whether to attack the current regime and will suc- ceed if and only if the mass of attackers outweighs the regime’s strength. A de- signer manipulates information about the regime’s strength to maintain the status quo. The optimal information structure exhibits local obfuscation, some agents receive a signal matching the true strength of the status quo, and others receive an elevated signal professing slightly higher strength. Public signals are strictly sub- optimal, and in some cases where public signals become futile, local obfuscation guarantees the collapse of agents’ coordination. Keywords: Bayesian persuasion, coordination, information design, obfuscation, regime change JEL Classification: C7, D7, D8. ∗We thank Yu Awaya, Arjada Bardhi, Gary Biglaiser, Daniel Bernhardt, James Best, Jimmy Chan, Yi-Chun Chen, Liang Dai, Toomas Hinnosaar, Tetsuya Hoshino, Ju Hu, Yunzhi Hu, Chong Huang, Nicolas Inostroza, Kyungmin (Teddy) Kim, Qingmin Liu, George Mailath, Laurent Mathevet, Stephen Morris, Xiaosheng Mu, Peter Norman, Mallesh Pai, Alessandro Pavan, Jacopo Perego, Xianwen Shi, Joel Sobel, Satoru Takahashi, Ina Taneva, Can Tian, Kyle Woodward, Xi Weng, Ming Yang, Jidong Zhou, and Zhen Zhou for comments. yDepartment of Economics, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill. Email:
[email protected]. zSchool of Management and Economics, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen. Email:
[email protected]. §School of Economics and Management, Beihang University. Email:
[email protected]. 1 1 Introduction The revolution of information and communication technology raises growing con- cerns about digital authoritarianism.1 Despite their tremendous effort to establish in- formation censorship and to spread disinformation, full manipulation of information remains outside autocrats’ grasp in the modern age.