& Risk Profile Update 2017

Kent Fire & Rescue Service Kent & Medway

Risk Profile Update 2017

Kent & Medway Risk Profile Update 2017

Contents Introduction ...... 4 County Overview ...... 5 Demographics and Population Risk Factors ...... 7 Population ...... 7 Household Types ...... 9 Deprivation ...... 10 Overall County Risk ...... 12 Dwellings ...... 12 Special Service RTC ...... 13 Future Risk Modelling ...... 13 Geodemographic Segmentation ...... 14 Building Usage as a Risk Identifier ...... 15 Other Building Risks ...... 15 Sleeping Accommodation Risk ...... 15 Hospitals ...... 16 Care Homes ...... 17 HMOs ...... 18 Hotels ...... 19 Non Sleeping Accommodation Risk ...... 20 Factories or Warehouses ...... 21 Further Education Establishments ...... 22 Licensed Premises ...... 23 Offices ...... 24 Premises Open to the Public ...... 25 Other Sleeping Accommodation ...... 26 Other Workplaces ...... 27 Public Buildings ...... 28 Schools ...... 29 Shops ...... 30 Specific Risks ...... 31 COMAH Sites ...... 31 Site Specific Risk ...... 31 Infrastructure Risk ...... 32 Roads ...... 32

Kent & Medway Risk Profile Update 2017

Rail ...... 32 Aviation ...... 32 Ports ...... 32 Sites of Specific Scientific Interest (SSSI) ...... 34 Flooding ...... 35 Existing KFRS Arrangements ...... 36 Future Development ...... 37 Ashford ...... 38 ...... 38 ...... 39 ...... 39 ...... 40 ...... 40 Medway ...... 41 ...... 41 Shepway ...... 42 Swale ...... 42 Thanet ...... 43 & Malling ...... 43 Tunbridge Wells ...... 44

Kent & Medway Risk Profile Update 2017

Introduction

The role of the Fire Service and its statutory duties are defined within the Fire and Rescue Services Act 2004. Alongside this, The Civil Contingencies Act 2004 defines the roles and responsibilities of the Fire and Rescue Authority in relation to civil protection and resilience arrangements, along with those of other regional public bodies.

The above legislation focuses on our statutory duty to respond to fire and fire related incidents. Services must also consider the contents and guidance within The Fire and Rescue National Framework for 2012, which outlines the priorities and objectives of the government for fire and rescue authorities. One of the key priorities within the national framework outlines:

“Identify and assess the full range of foreseeable fire and rescue related risks their areas face, make provision for prevention, protection activities, and respond to incidents appropriately”

In conjunction with our response, prevention and protection activities the authority conducts risk and workload modelling to support the production of plans and policies which underpin Kent & Medway Fire & Rescue Authority’s (KMFRA) aims and objectives.

In 2016 KMFRA conducted a wide ranging and in depth review of the provison of emergency response within Kent and Medway which underpinned the previous Safety and Wellbeing Plan. Analysis was conducted across the county and profiles were generated for smaller geoghraphic areas which allowed for easier reporting and comparisons of the wide ranging analysis conducted. These smaller geoghraphic areas are referred to as Clusters and align with our management areas based on internal working arrangements and the day to day work activities of personnel.

Following the completion of the review in 2016 it is believed that information and data obtained has not changed significantly and remaines largely current. KMFRA has continued to monitor the risk profile across the county and obtain information from local authorities and partner organisations relating to any significant developments and infrastructure changes that may impact our service delivery or provide indication of future risks within the county. To do this we use a variety of data and infromation provided by partners agencies such as, The Kent and Medway Growth and Infastructure Framework and Local Transport Plan, as well as infromation provided from internal departments and operational intelligence.

Population data used within this update has been obtained from Office of National Statistics (ONS), a Government department charged with the collection and publication of statistics related to the economy, population and society. The last full Census provided by ONS was conducted in 2011 and it was this data that was used in the previous review. For the purpose of this report the latest ONS 2016 mid year population estimates have been used to update population demoghraphics. We have also used infromation from a product called “Mosaic” to update geodemographic profiling.

KFRS has significant experience in planning for emergencies in sites of specific risk and numerous sites have been identified through previous internal work. Changes in the number and level of these sites has also been included in this document.

The aim of this document is to provide an update on the county wide profile of Kent and Medway and inform on changes that have occurred since the previous review. It is anticipated that the infromation contained within this document is used in conjunction with the cluster level analysis that has been published.

4

Kent & Medway Risk Profile Update 2017

County Overview

The county of Kent, covers a geographical area of approximately 1442 square miles.

The county has water borders with the River Thames, North Sea, Straights of Dover and the and is land bordered by Greater , and . Kent also shares borders with Essex, along the estuary of the River Thames, and the French department of Pas-de Calais along the English Channel.

A map showing the County boundary can be seen below.

Kent Fire and Rescue Service (KFRS) divides the county into geographical groups and clusters to assist with reporting and align with its day to day activities. The current structure of 5 Groups and 19 clusters have been in use for some time. As part of our ongoing review and continued development of the service a decision was made to split the Thames Gateway cluster into two clusters. This change would allow a closer alignment with other county wide management structures and provide better internal support and management for stations in an area with levels of urban conurbation and a critical network infrastructure.

The two new clusters, Dartford and Gravesham align with the same geographical boundaries as the original Thames Gateway cluster. The change in terminology and reporting has no impact on the risks or demographic profile of the area. Following this change we now have 5 Groups with 20 cluster areas within the county of Kent.

5

Kent & Medway Risk Profile Update 2017

The maps below show the Group and Cluster boundaries.

5 Group Boundaries

New 20 Cluster Boundaries

6

Kent & Medway Risk Profile Update 2017

Demographics and Population Risk Factors

Population

This most current and widely available information with which to highlight the population risk factors is the ONS 2016 mid-year population estimates. This data has been used to update the community composition across Kent and Medway.

The following charts and tables provide information outlining the change in population, age and gender of the community across Kent. The 2016 mid-year estimate indicates a population increase of 92,770.

Area 2016 Mid-Year Estimate 2011 Census Kent 1,541,893 1,463,740 Medway 278,542 263,925 Total 1,820,435 1,727,665

The following charts provide information for comparison on the age and gender of the population across Kent and Medway.

Female : Male ratio 2011 Census

51.01% 48.99%

Female : Male ratio 2016 mid-year estimate

50.85% 49.15%

7

Kent & Medway Risk Profile Update 2017

8

Kent & Medway Risk Profile Update 2017

Household Types

The 2011 Census data also provides a breakdown of household types. These types are outlined as:

. One family households are categorised by the presence of children into those with dependent children, those with non-dependent children only, and those with no children. Other households are categorised by the presence or absence of dependent children. . Married includes those in a civil partnership. . Households with dependent children include natural, adopted and step-children aged 0 to 15 and those aged 16 to 18 in full-time education or training for work and living at home with parent(s) or grandparent(s) (excluding those who have a spouse, partner or child(ren) living in the household). Non-dependent children are all those living in a household with parent(s) or grandparent(s) who are not classified as dependent children. . Other households include: households of more than one family; households comprised of unrelated adults sharing; those including one family and other unrelated adults; all full-time student households; and households in which all occupants are aged 65 and over.

9

Kent & Medway Risk Profile Update 2017

The table below shows the 2011 census breakdown of household types across Kent and Medway.

Household types (2011 census) Total % Total One person household: Aged 65 and over 91,178 12.81 One person household: Other 112,587 15.82 One family only: All aged 65 and over 64,011 8.99 One family only: Married or same-sex civil partnership couple: No children 93,360 13.12 One family only: Married or same-sex civil partnership couple: Dependent children 114,471 16.08 One family only: Married or same-sex civil partnership couple: All children non-dependent 41,010 5.76 One family only: Cohabiting couple: No children 37,768 5.31 One family only: Cohabiting couple: Dependent children 33,256 4.67 One family only: Cohabiting couple: All children non-dependent 3,843 0.54 One family only: Lone parent: Dependent children 49,474 6.95 One family only: Lone parent: All children non-dependent 23,594 3.31 Other household types: With dependent children 16,655 2.34 Other household types: All full-time students 2,980 0.42 Other household types: All aged 65 and over 2,198 0.31 Other household types: Other 25,462 3.58

Total: 711,847

Deprivation Data from the 2011 Census is used to provide information on households that are classified as deprived. This data will not have been updated since the last review as the national update program is 10 yearly. The information provided below is given to provide continuity on the profile across Kent and Medway.

The dimensions of deprivation are indicators used to classify households based on a selection of four household characteristics. A household is deprived if they meet one or more of these dimensions:

 Employment: where any member of a household, who is not a full time student, is either unemployed or long-term sick.  Education: no person in the household has at least level 2 education, and no person aged 16-18 is a full time student  Health and disability: any person in the household has general health that is “bad” or “very bad” or has a long term health problem, and  Housing: the household accommodation is either overcrowded, with an occupancy rating -1 or less, or is a shared dwelling, or has no central heating

A household is further classified as being deprived in none, or one to four of these dimensions.

10

Kent & Medway Risk Profile Update 2017

The 2011 Census data indicates that, of the 711,847 households within the county, 309,099 households were not deprived in any dimension and 402,748 households were deprived in one or multiple dimensions.

Breakdown of Kent Households by Percentage 43.42% households not deprived in any dimension 33.11% households deprived in 1 dimension 18.48% households deprived in 2 dimensions 4.50% households deprived in 3 dimensions 0.48% households deprived in 4 dimensions

There is a well-established correlation between dwelling fires and the measures of individual household characteristics detailed above.

The map below shows a thematic distribution of the 402,748 households categorised as deprived in one or multiple dimensions across the county. Using the dimensions of deprivation as an indicator, the darker areas represent progressively more deprived localities.

11

Kent & Medway Risk Profile Update 2017

Overall County Risk

There is a requirement within the National Framework for Fire and Rescue Service’s to assess foreseeable fire and rescue related risks within their area of responsibility. Predominantly dwelling fires and Road Traffic Collisions (RTC) are recognised as being the highest risk to residents of Kent and Medway which aligns with national risk patterns. Although not used by all Fire and Rescue Services the government developed a tool to assist in analysing these risks. This tool is called the Fire Service Emergency Cover Toolkit, commonly referred to as FSEC.

Currently, KFRS use the FSEC toolkit to assist in analysing risk alongside other toolkits which compare other elements such as demand and societal demographics.

FSEC can be used create models relating to the risk within the Kent and Medway area. The dwellings and special service RTC models are outlined below as they provide the best representation of the work conducted by KFRS and consist of incidents which present the highest level of risk to the community. These models have been updated and include 5 years of data from 2012 to 2016.

Dwellings

The dwellings model shown below shows the predicted areas where dwelling fatalities may occur within Kent. The predicted fatalities are derived from historic incident data, the response provided by KFRS, and demographic risk factors related to number of lone pensioner households and the number of rented households.

12

Kent & Medway Risk Profile Update 2017

Special Service RTC

The special service RTC model shown below shows the predicted areas that RTC fatalities may occur. The predicted fatalities are derived from historic RTC incident data.

Future Risk Modelling Although the FSEC system currently used by KFRS is a useful tool provided by government, the support for this toolkit is being withdrawn. The timing of this also aligns with the continued emergence and development of Business Intelligence Systems (BIS), Geographical Information Systems (GIS) and the wider use and sharing of data.

The current FSEC system is now becoming limited in its functions compared to commercially available analytical tools. In view of the withdrawal of support for FSEC and the ongoing development of a diverse spectrum of BIS and GIS systems available, KFRS are now embarking on a project to review its future provision of risk assessment and modelling and is working towards the development of a new methodology and process for the continued assessment of risk within its area of responsibility.

13

Kent & Medway Risk Profile Update 2017

Geodemographic Segmentation Geodemographic segmentation is used to classify and characterise neighbourhoods or localities based on profiling. KFRS use a product called Mosaic Public Sector (Mosaic).

Mosaic is a lifestyle profiling tool which provides a wide range of information about people’s lifestyle and lifestyle choices, based on a profile of the area they live in. Developed from a commercial marketing tool, Mosaic is now available to help public service organisations gain a detailed understanding of the communities they serve and improve engagement in those communities. Using this information allows KFRS to understand the demographics, lifestyle, preferences and behaviours of people within Kent and Medway to support targeting those who need us most.

Mosaic allows KFRS to categorise properties into one of fifteen top level categories. Each of these categories can be sub dived further however these levels of details are not relevant for this update.

The table below outlines the breakdown of 749,570 households across the county in Mosaic groups.

Households Mosaic Group Description

52,695 Country Living Well-off owners in rural locations enjoying the benefits of country life

63,204 Prestige Positions Established families in large detached homes living upmarket lifestyles

2,755 City Prosperity High status city dwellers living in central locations and pursuing careers with high rewards

57,108 Domestic Success Thriving families who are busy brining up children and following careers

72,815 Suburban Stability Mature suburban owners living settled lives in mid-range housing

82,120 Senior Security Elderly people with assets who are enjoying a comfortable retirement

43,964 Rural Reality Householders living in inexpensive homes in village communities

91,245 Aspiring Homemakers Younger households settling in housing priced within their means

13,803 Urban Cohesion Residents of settled urban communities with a strong identity

53,811 Rental Hubs Educated young people privately renting in urban neighbourhoods

45,914 Modest Traditions Mature homeowners of value homes enjoying stable lifestyles

52,610 Transient Renters Single people privately renting low cost homes for the short term

54,308 Family Basics Families with limited resources who budget to make ends meet

48,611 Vintage Value Elderly people reliant on support to meet financial/practical needs

14,607 Municipal Challenge Urban renters of social housing facing an array of challenges

Total: 749,570

14

Kent & Medway Risk Profile Update 2017

Building Usage as a Risk Identifier

There is a well-established process within Fire and Rescue Services nationally to recognise an identified building usage type as an indicator of the risk posed by that building and the amount of risk that building poses to a community.

The previous review of the provision of emergency response conducted in 2016 reviewed the data we held in relation to buildings. The data collated from the previous review has been used to provide the following information for continuity.

The primary data source that was used for this information is a product called Ordnance Survey AddressBase Premium which is provided to KFRS under a public licence agreement. The review also compared known property types gained through fire safety inspections and operational intelligence with the information contained within AddressBase.

The current methodology and data used for profiling of buildings risk is currently under review to identify how we can improve the quality and quantity of the data available to provide a more robust picture of the buildings risk within the county.

This section outlines the usage of buildings other than those classed as dwellings across the county.

Other Building Risks

Sleeping Accommodation Risk

Part of the established practice of using an identified building usage type as an indicator of the risk involves Fire and Rescue Services recognising that approximately 80% of the total risk from fire fatalities involves buildings where people sleep. This 80% of total risk can be attributed to specific categories of building usage:

. Hospitals . Care Homes . Houses of Multiple Occupancy (HMOs) . Hotels . Hostels

The following maps outline the distribution and density of these buildings types across the county.

15

Kent & Medway Risk Profile Update 2017

Hospitals

A hospital is defined as an institution providing medical and surgical treatment and nursing care for sick or injured people.

16

Kent & Medway Risk Profile Update 2017

Care Homes

A care home is defined as a residential setting where a number of usually older people live, primarily in single rooms, and have access to on-site care services.

17

Kent & Medway Risk Profile Update 2017

HMOs

A House of Multiple Occupation (HMO) is defined as a property that is shared by three or more tenants who are not members of the same family.

18

Kent & Medway Risk Profile Update 2017

Hotels

A Hotel is defined as an establishment providing accommodation, meals, and other services for travellers and tourists, by the night.

19

Kent & Medway Risk Profile Update 2017

Non Sleeping Accommodation Risk

Those buildings which do not provide sleeping accommodation account for approximately 20% of the total of other building risk. These are:

 Factories or Warehouses  Further Education Establishments  Licenced Premises  Offices  Premises Open to the Public  Other Sleeping Accommodation  Other Workplaces  Public Buildings  Schools  Shops

The following maps outline the distribution and density of the above building types across the county.

20

Kent & Medway Risk Profile Update 2017

Factories or Warehouses

Examples of this category include; factories warehouses, mills and brickworks.

21

Kent & Medway Risk Profile Update 2017

Further Education Establishments

Examples of this category include; colleges, universities and other such training establishments.

22

Kent & Medway Risk Profile Update 2017

Licensed Premises

Examples of this category include; public houses, social clubs and bingo halls.

23

Kent & Medway Risk Profile Update 2017

Offices

The map below shows the distribution and density of buildings which fall into the offices category

24

Kent & Medway Risk Profile Update 2017

Premises Open to the Public

Examples of this category include; leisure centres, theatres and crematoriums.

25

Kent & Medway Risk Profile Update 2017

Other Sleeping Accommodation

Examples of this category include; police, fire and ambulance stations, and prisons.

26

Kent & Medway Risk Profile Update 2017

Other Workplaces

Examples of this category include; vehicle repair workshops, quarries and storage depots.

27

Kent & Medway Risk Profile Update 2017

Public Buildings

Examples of this category include; libraries, museums and community centres.

28

Kent & Medway Risk Profile Update 2017

Schools

Examples of this category include primary and secondary schools and day nurseries.

29

Kent & Medway Risk Profile Update 2017

Shops

Examples of this category include; food courts, general retail and superstores.

30

Kent & Medway Risk Profile Update 2017

Specific Risks

COMAH Sites The Control of Major Accident Hazards Regulations 1999 (COMAH) and their amendments 2005, are the enforcing regulations within the which are applicable to any site which stores or handles large quantities of industrial chemicals of a hazardous nature. The regulations operate on two levels which depend on the sites status, either Top Tier or Lower Tier sites.

There are 4 Top Tier and 14 Lower Tier COMAH sites across Kent and Medway.

Site Specific Risk KFRS has a process which identifies sites which pose a specific risk to the community should an incident occur at these locations. These sites are subjected to specific planning and training regimes in order to ensure KMFRA has the ability to respond correctly and effectively to the risks associated with these sites.

Sites are assessed under this process and graded as either, Low, Medium, High or Very High. Currently KFRS has 268 sites identified which poses a specific risk. The table below outlines the number and level of sites across the county by KFRS reporting areas.

Group Cluster V High High Med Low Total Medway 0 0 17 2 19 North Sheppey 0 1 4 5 10 0 2 11 2 15 Swale 0 2 10 0 12 Canterbury 1 1 14 1 17 East Deal 0 1 6 0 7 Thanet 0 5 21 7 33 0 0 7 1 8 Ashford 0 2 17 2 21 South Dover 0 2 5 1 8 1 0 5 1 7 Romney Marsh 1 0 1 1 3 Dartford 0 4 12 5 21 West Larkfield 0 1 8 1 10 Gravesham 0 0 15 3 18 Sevenoaks 0 1 9 0 10 Maidstone 0 0 14 9 23 Mid Tonbridge 0 0 1 2 3 Tunbridge Wells 0 0 9 6 15 The Weald 0 0 8 0 8 County Totals 3 22 194 49 268

31

Kent & Medway Risk Profile Update 2017

Infrastructure Risk

The risk posed by the county’s infrastructure can be broken down into four main areas:

Roads

The county has approximately 7300 miles of highways and the M2, M20, M26 and M25 motorways combine to provide the largest motorway distance within any county in the UK.

Rail

There is a significant rail infrastructure across the county which includes primary commuter lines which link to London along with the High Speed 1 line which, in conjunction with the Channel Tunnel, services passenger and freight links to Europe.

Aviation

The greatest risk is posed by Kent and Medway’s proximity to London airports and the fact that Kent and Medway sits below the flight path for many International flights.

Major airports in the South East of England:

. London . . London Biggin Hill Airport .

We have 2 key aviation sites within the county, International Airport (LIA) is located within the Romney Marsh cluster and Rochester Airport which is located within the Strood cluster.

There are plans in place to extend the existing 1,500m at LIA by 294m with a 150m starter area and to build a brand new terminal facility capable of taking 500,000 passengers a year. Permission was granted by Shepway council in 2010 and initial work already carried out on the runway extension has been approved by the council meaning further work has no time limit on its completion. Currently LIA expect work on the runway to start in summer 2018 and completed by early 2019 with the possibility that the build schedule for the new terminal building will be brought forward.

Kent and Medway has a long established aviation tradition and there are many small airfields for light aircraft throughout the county.

Ports

Kent and Medway has a significant amount of coastline and as such numerous small ports and harbours. Most villages and towns along the coast contain a mooring location which coupled with the various inland marinas along the rivers of the county present a level of risk to the community.

32

Kent & Medway Risk Profile Update 2017

The map below outlines the road network and the location and distribution of the railway network, key harbours, ports and airports within Kent.

33

Kent & Medway Risk Profile Update 2017

Sites of Specific Scientific Interest (SSSI)

Sites of Specific Scientific Interest (SSSI) are sites which support plants, animals, protected species or natural habitats that find it difficult to survive in the wider countryside. These unique and varied habitats have developed over hundreds of years through management practices such as grazing and forestry, and require active management to maintain their conservation status.

Natural England currently lists 98 SSSI sites within the county of Kent.

The map below outlines the locations of SSSI sites across the county.

More detailed information for individual SSSI sites across Kent and Medway can be found via the Natural England website: https://designatedsites.naturalengland.org.uk/SiteList.aspx?siteName=&countyCode=24&res ponsiblePerson=

34

Kent & Medway Risk Profile Update 2017

Flooding

In recent years the risk of flooding has greatly increased. Below is a map showing the areas of potential flooding within Kent and Medway. It shows the chance of flooding from rivers and the sea presented in categories which take into account flood defences and their current condition.

© Environment Agency copyright and/or database right 2017. All rights reserved. Some features of this map are based on digital spatial data from the Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, © NERC (CEH) © Crown copyright and database rights 2017 Ordnance Survey 100024198 http://www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/doc/open-government-licence/version/3/

This current information has been taken from data.gov.uk under the open government licence for public sector information.

35

Kent & Medway Risk Profile Update 2017

Existing KFRS Arrangements

There are 56 fire stations across Kent which are crewed through differing crewing systems, 13 Whole time shift, 9 Day Crewed and 44 On-Call, each crewing system is outlined below:

On-call

This crewing model uses firefighters who are called into the station when required from a remote location. These appliances are available either during the day, during the night or both as required by the Authority.

Day Crewed

This crewing model uses firefighters who are available at station during the day and on call at night.

Whole time shift

This crewing model uses firefighters who are continuously available for deployment 24 hours a day and are based at station.

A number of fire engines are based at each station totalling 75 and provide differing capabilities. The specific crewing system and types of fire engine for your area can be reviewed in the Cluster level analysis documents.

36

Kent & Medway Risk Profile Update 2017

Future Development

As part of our review process and risk profiling for Kent and Medway we will review future housing, population and infrastructure growth as an indicator of potential future risks.

Each local council is required to produce a Core Strategy Document under the National Planning Policy Framework as well as Local Plans for projected development. These plans and associated documentation continue to be used and provide a consolidated reference point for key information related to growth and infrastructure.

The Kent and Medway Growth and Infrastructure Framework1 outlines a comprehensive picture of growth estimates for a 20 year period from 2011-2031. The framework has been developed by Kent County Council, in collaboration with Medway Council and the 12 district councils within Kent. It provides planners, developers and government departments at all levels with information relating to growth and infrastructure at a strategic level.

The current document version (published in 2015) indicates the following levels of growth across Kent and Medway:

New Homes New People New Jobs 158,500 293,300 135,800 (+21%) (+17%) (+19%)

The map below outlines the boundaries for Medway and the 12 district councils.

1 Information from the Kent and Medway Growth and Infrastructure Framework has been used to provide the county and district profiles for housing, population and infrastructure growth. 37

Kent & Medway Risk Profile Update 2017

The following information is provided to give an overview of developments, housing, population and infrastructure growth for Medway and the 12 district council areas. Ashford District

New Homes New People New Jobs 14,000 25,600 17,200 (+28%) (+22%) (+32%)

Major Housing Development . Chilmington Green 5,750 units . Cheeseman’s Green/Finberry 1,100 units . Repton Park 905 units

Infrastructure Development . New Junction 10A, M20 to facilitate growth to south of Ashford . A28 Chart Road to alleviate existing congestion issues and facilitate major growth sites . Improved connections between Ashford International and growth sites

Commercial Development . Expansion of Designer Outlet . Commercial Quarter is a mixed development of 590,000 square feet of office space and 150 apartments. Phase one of this new public realm around International House and Dover Place is now complete. . Elwick Place located opposite County Square is the first phase and offers a town centre cinema and 7 restaurants. Completion is expected winter 2018/early 2019

Canterbury District

New Homes New People New Jobs 16,200 32,200 17,000 (+25%) (+21%) (+25%)

Major Housing Development . South Canterbury 4,000 units . Land at Hilborough 1,300 units . Sturry/Broad Oak 1,000 units . Ridlands Farm/Hospital Site 810 units . Land at /adjacent to Cocking Farm Thanington 1,150 units . Strode Farm, 800 units . Hersden 800 units

Infrastructure Development . Sturry Relief Road . Herne Relief Road . New A2 Interchange at Bridge . Wincheap project (A2 off slip road, relief road and roundabout)

38

Kent & Medway Risk Profile Update 2017

Dartford District

New Homes New People New Jobs 18,100 42,300 22,100 (+44%) (+43%) (+40%)

Major Housing Development . Ebbsfleet Garden City – Eastern Quarry 6,250 units. Ebbsfleet 2,320 units; Ebbsfleet Green (Formerly West Sub Station) 950 units . Northern Gateway East and Millpoind 2,450 units . Thames Europort 850 units . St James Lane Pit 850 units . Dartford Town Centre Circa 800 units . The Bridge 830 units

Infrastructure Development . Lower Thames Crossing . A2 Bean Strategic junction improvements . Strategic junction improvements at Ebbsfleet/A2 interchange . Proposed infrastructure changes to support Theme Park development

Commercial Development . Co. Holdings Theme Park development . Bluewater, West Village expansion

Dover District

New Homes New People New Jobs 10,000 18,900 400 (+19%) (+17%) (+1%)

Major Housing Development . Whitfield 3,240 units . 1,000 units . & Western Heights 560 units . Connaught Barracks 500 units

Infrastructure Development . Western Docks A20 improvements . A256 new junction . A2/A258 Duke of York roundabout improvement . Whitfield A2 Bridge

Commercial Development . St James Development . Dover Western Docks Revival

39

Kent & Medway Risk Profile Update 2017

Gravesham District

New Homes New People New Jobs 7,100 12,400 7,000 (+17%) (+12%) (+22%)

Major Housing Development . Canal Basin Area 650 units . Ebbsfleet Garden City . Ebbsfleet Springhead quarter 589 units . Northfleet Embankment West 532 units . Land at Coldharbour Road 500 units

Infrastructure Development . Lower Thames Crossing . Transport Interchange at . Crossrail

Maidstone District

New Homes New People New Jobs 16,200 30,000 12,000 (+25%) (+19%) (+16%)

Major Housing Development . Lenham & Harrietsham 1,500 units . Invicta Park Barracks 1,300 units . Hermitage Lane 830 units . Langley Park 600 units . Springfield Maidstone 500 units . Proposed Detling Aerodrome Development 1,750 units

Infrastructure Development . M20 Junction 7 improvements . ‘Smart’ Motorway on M20 Junction 3-5 . Thameslink extension to Maidstone East . South East Maidstone relief road

Commercial Development . Proposed Woodcut Farm commercial business park M20 Junction 8

40

Kent & Medway Risk Profile Update 2017

Medway District

New Homes New People New Jobs 22,100 42,600 20,100 (+20%) (+16%) (+20%)

Major Housing Development . Lodge Hill 5,000 units . Rochester riverside 1,400 units . Chatham docks 950 units . Strood Waterfront Action Area 620 units

Infrastructure Development . A289 Four Elms to Medway tunnel improvements . Improvements to A229 corridor between Maidstone and Medway Towns . Strood and Chatham town centre improvements

Sevenoaks District

New Homes New People New Jobs 3,600 1,600 7,000 (+7%) (+1%) (+15%)

Major Housing Development . West Kent Cold Store, Dunton Green 500 units . Fort Halstead 450 units . Land west of enterprise Way, Edenbridge 276 units . United house, 185 units

Infrastructure Development . Consideration for ‘Smart’ motorway system on M26

41

Kent & Medway Risk Profile Update 2017

Shepway District

New Homes New People New Jobs 8,600 12,400 500 (+17%) (+11%) (+1%)

Major Housing Development . Nickolls quarry 1050 units . Folkestone Seafront 1000 units . Burgoyne and Somerset Barracks (Shorncliffe Garrison) 635 units . Risborough and Napier Barracks (Shorncliffe Garrison) 560 units . Development around Junction 11 M20

Infrastructure Development . Schemes to support growth include Grave Hill System and Tontine St Junctions. . Schemes to support Shorncliffe Garrison – Horn Street bridge improvements, links from site to Cheriton High Street and Seabrook Valley. . Potential highway improvements required around due to growth.

Commercial Development . Folkestone Seafront

Swale District

New Homes New People New Jobs 11,300 18,100 9,900 (+19%) (+13%) (+19%)

Major Housing Development . North West 1,160 units . Stones Farm, Canterbury Road 550 units . and Rushenden 1,100 units

Infrastructure Development . M2 Junction 5 critical scheme . Potential to extend Northern relief road to A2 and longer term the M2 to relieve traffic in Sittingbourne and on A2

42

Kent & Medway Risk Profile Update 2017

Thanet District

New Homes New People New Jobs 12,000 23,500 5,000 (+18%) (+17%) (+11%)

Major Housing Development . Westwood 1,450 units . Westwood Centre 1020 units . Birchington 1000 units . Westgate 1000 units . Manston Green 700 units . Proposed development on Jentex Site, Canterbury Road West

Infrastructure Development . junction improvements unlocking major sites . Westwood Town Centre Strategy link road . Thanet loop road improvements . Major improvements to Rail Journey connections to London.

Commercial Development .

Tonbridge & Malling District

New Homes New People New Jobs 13,300 28,200 7,700 (+27%) (+23%) (+13%)

Major Housing Development . Kings Hill (Phase 1,2,&3) 1,191 units . Peter’s Pit 1,000 units . Holborough Quarry 833 units . Leybourne Grange 655 units

Infrastructure Development . New road crossing A228 to Peter’s Pit . M20 Junction 4 widening of Eastern bridge . M20 Junction 3-5 merged motorway . Tonbridge Town Centre regeneration

43

Kent & Medway Risk Profile Update 2017

Tunbridge Wells District

New Homes New People New Jobs 5,900 5,600 9,900 (+12%) (+5%) (+18%)

Major Housing Development . Land at Church Farm and Mascalls Court 650 units . Knights wood 550 units . Mascalls Farm 300 units . Hawkenbury Farm 250 units . Land adjacent to Crave valley 250 units

Infrastructure Development . A264 corridor capacity improvements . A26 corridor capacity improvements . North farm transport improvements . Upgrading the A21 to dual carriageway between Kippings Cross and Lamberhurst . A228 Colts Hill improvements

44