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Survey of Current Business August 1931

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Survey of Current Business August 1931 AUGUST, 1931 SURVEY OF i CURRENT BUSIN 1!<:1i UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF COMMER BUREAU OF FOREIGN AND DOMESTIC WASHINGTON VOLUME 11 NUMBER 8 ?' * ' ?V>;$3K How to use .RENT BUSINESS STATISTICS explained for the business man in nontechnical ll|l|:ij language with 283 specific examples «£$.-:, and 7 charts Published by the United States Department of Commerce CHAPTER TITLES AND CONTENTS I—The problem and its solution Results of use of statistics Controlling the business cycle £velopment of statistics Results of statistical control eed of census data Budgeting story of statistics Difficulties in forecasting II—How the figures are used Specific examples of the uses of business statistics, gathered from actual experience, are presented here, classified under 30 industries and businesses. Jfe: jjjr—fjow {O interpret the figures $| production Unshipped orders fylfftpacity Inquiries Salemen's calls shipments Prices |||^;ipOmsumption of materials Imports stock Exports stock Statistics of material markets accepted Statistics of distribution markets |';jpittcellations General business statistics IV—How to collect current statistics to gather Publicity covered Mode of presentation _ the form Graphic charts {(Meeting the data Improving the reports lation Joint collection by Census Bureau Ice statistics Meeting objections to reporting PLICATION FOR EVERY BUSINESS MAN For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, Government Printing Office Washington, D. C* Price 15 cents »;; (Postage stamps not accepted) Volume 11 AUGUST, 1931 Number 8 WEEKLY DATA THROUGH JULY 25, 1931 MONTHLY DATA THROUGH JUNE SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS PUBLISHED BY UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE WASHINGTON CONTENTS Page Monthly business indicators 2 Business situation summarized 3 Finance 4 1931 in comparison 6 Commodity prices 7 Employment 8 Domestic trade 9 Foreign trade 10 Transportation 11 Construction 12 Agriculture.__ 13 Iron and steel industry 14 Metals and metal products 15 Automobile and rubber industries 16 Textiles industry 17 Food industries 18 Forest products industry 19 Miscellaneous industries 20 New and revised series 21 Weekly business statistics 22 Monthly business statistics 23 Subscription price of the SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS is $1.50 a year which includes the 12 monthly numbers, the annual supple- ment, and the 52 weekly supplements; single copies (monthly), 10 cents; annual supplement, 25 cents. Foreign subscriptions, $2.50; single copies (monthly issues), including postage, 14 cents; annual supplement, 36 cents. Make remittances only to Superintendent of Documents, Washington, D. C., by postal money order, express order, or New York dr^ft. Currency at sender's risk. Postage stamps or foreign money not accepted 69201—31 1 1 SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS [August, 1931 Monthly Business Indicators 1923-1925-106 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION 140 r 140 120 100 100 80 FACTORY EMPLOYMENT FACTORY PAYROLLS 125 120 ADJUSTED* 100 75 TOTAL FREIGHT CAR LOADINGS CAR LOADINGS L.C.L. 130 120 rUNADJUSTED \OJUSTED* SOO 60 60 DEPARTMENT STORE SALES WHOLESALE PRICES Z20 120 150 VALUE OF EXPORTS VALUE OF IMPORTS 150 150 100 50 BANK DEBITS OUTSIDE NEW YORK CITY BUILDING CONTRACTS AWARDED ZOO 200 150 150 - 100 £^v 100 50 1927 !926 1929 1930 !93! 1927 1926 1929 1930 193! * ADJUSTMENT FOR NUMBER OF WORKING DAY5 AND SEASONAL VARIATION August, 1931] SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS Business Situation Summarized ENERAL business activity continued its decline of Department store sales, if adjusted for the number of G greater than seasonal proportions during June, a working days, fell 6.2 per cent in June, but if adjusted tendency, however, which became less marked during also for seasonal variation the decline was only 1.1 the first two weeks of Juhr. The adjusted index of per cent. Bank debits outside of New York, after a industrial production for June showed a drop of 3.4 sharp drop in May, increased nearly three per cent in per cent, a change largely accounted for by a recession June and have moved to a higher level since the close of 4.4 per cent in the adjusted index of manufacturing of the month. output, while the decline in mineral production was The unadjusted value of building contracts showed only a little more than seasonal. Among manufac- a gain of 9.4 per cent in June. Residential building turing industries there were relatively sharp recessions awards moved contrary to this general trend but pub- in the output of iron and steel and in automobile lic works and utilities construction, although steadily production, but textile activity was maintained close declining from March to May, registered an increase to seasonal levels and was well above the levels of a last month of 42 per cent over the May total. Among year ago. the more favorable factors during June was the retarda- The recession in business during June was further tion in the rate of decline of wholesale prices which reflected in a drop of 2.5 per cent in factory employ- turned into a temporary rise early in July. Security ment, after allowing for normal seasonal changes, and prices also moved ahead over a great part of the month, in a fall of 5.5 per cent in factory pay rolls which are reflecting favorable sentiment created by the morato- now 25 per cent below the level of a year ago. The rium agreement, but these have reversed their trend indexes of distribution also tended downward, although since the close of the month. the adjusted index of freight-car loadings, after show- The January-to-June average of adjusted indexes ing a decline of 2.5 per cent during June, has moved of industrial production shows a decline of 16.3 per consistently upward since the beginning of July. cent as compared with the first half of 1930. MONTHLY BUSINESS INDEXES , Factory em- Department; Foreign w Industrial produc- ployment Freight car loadings store sales, | trade, Wholesale prices tion and pay rolls value value Ne types e i l i al y OS T3 Merchan- , § X | Total »0 1 dise) 1. c. I. e ss 1 Cit * outsid £3 k en s •dC a* 8~ 0>ta!n | „ valu w •e Year and month 11 flS s 3 |1 f Yor §§ »! 1 1 contracts OS 1 •a 00 •o g SS H % a> V % Si « 3 3 debit £ = & 15 i £ s "3 4> •5 en ,0 0 a a jf ee 3 i a =3 1 w $ I ee I *i 0 0 a 3 d 3 a ! l c3 s| H i p & < S -< s 1 Bank Buildin 6 ffa OP* Monthly average 1923-1925 = 100 Monthly average 1926=100 1920: June 126 129 112 103 110 110 108 105 105 108 113 .104 109 134.0 129 96.4 103.3 93.1 1930: June --.-._„ _ 100 100 100 90 91 95 93 98 98 98 103 78 78 124.9 146 86.8 88.9 85.7 July 94 94 97 87 83 95 92 94 95 71 100 70 68 117.5 89 84.0 83.1 84.3. August 91 90 96 84 82 96 89 95 95 77 102 79 68 106.3 84 84.0 84.9 83.3 September 91 90 94 83 83 99 87 99 95 103 99 82 70 107. 7 81 84.2 85.3 82.8, October ... 87 85 98 82 81 97 86 97 93 112 102 86 77 i 120.1 82 82.6 82.6 81.5 November 85 84 92 81 75 86 84 94 92 113 98 76 63 ; 99.9 62 80.4 79.3 80.1 December ... 82 80 94 80 74 74 84 86 92 165 94 72 65 i 117.2 61 78.4 75.2 79.0- 1931: January. ... 83 81 90 78 68 74 82 83 90 79 97 66 57 ! 110.0 55 77.0 73.5 77.8. February 86 86 88 78 73 74 80 87 89 80 98 59 54 ' 86.6 57 75.5 70.1 77.1 March 88 88 87 78 75 75 80 89 89 92 97 62 65 ; 98.4 90 74.5 70.6 75.6 April 90 90 92 78 74 77 80 91 88 101 106 57 58 ' 99.5 82 73.3 70.1 74, 2 May 89 90 86 78 72 79 79 92 89 97 97 54 56 95.6 74 71.3 67.1 73.2 June. .. ___ 86 86 85 76 68 77 77 89 89 91 86 i 49 55 ! 98.4 81 70.0 65.4 71.9 Monthly average, January through June: 1929 121 122 115 101 109 102 307 104 104 101 111 115 118 i 135.6 122 96.7 104. 8 93.0 1930 104 105 104 93 95 ; 93 97 97 99 97 106 91 90 : 123.0 107 90.5 95.2 88.4 1931 87 87 88 » 72 ! 76 80 88 89 ! 80 98 58 58 98.1 73 73.6 69.5 75.0 3 Adjusted for seasonal variation. \d justed for number of working days. SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS [August, 1931 Finance—Credit and Banking HE credit and banking statistics for June reflected Despite the month's net gold imports and releases of Tin general the low level of activity which continues gold from earmark the total reserve bank credit out- to feature the commercial and security markets. standing at the end of June was somewhat higher than Bank debits outside of New York City, which tend to a month previously. This gain was entirely due to an be somewhat irregular on the basis of short-term com- increase of 11.8 per cent in the reserve bank's portfolio parisons, showed a slight increase over the May total of Government securities, which was only partly offset but were 21 per cent below the aggregate for June, by the decline in total bills discounted and bills pur- 1930.
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