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Water Supply Planning: Middle Illinois Assessment of Water Resources for Water Supply Final Report

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Water Supply Planning: Middle Illinois Assessment of Water Resources for Water Supply Final Report ISWS CONTRACT REPORT 2018-02 AUGUST 2018 WATER SUPPLY PLANNING: MIDDLE ILLINOIS ASSESSMENT OF WATER RESOURCES FOR WATER SUPPLY FINAL REPORT Walt Kelly • Daniel Abrams • Vern Knapp • Zhenxing Zhang • Benedykt Dziegielewski Daniel Hadley • George Roadcap • Devin Mannix • Yanqing Lian • Scott Meyer • Jason Thomason Water Supply Planning: Middle Illinois Assessment of Water Resources for Water Supply Final Report Walton R. Kelly Daniel B. Abrams H. Vernon Knapp Zhenxing Zhang Benedykt Dziegielewski Daniel R. Hadley George S. Roadcap Devin H. Mannix Yanqing Lian Scott C. Meyer Jason F. Thomason August 2018 Illinois State Water Survey Illinois State Geological Survey Prairie Research Institute University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign Funded by: Illinois Department of Natural Resources Office of Water Resources Contents Abstract .............................................................................................................................. 1 1 Introduction ............................................................................................................... 3 1.1 Study Area .......................................................................................................... 4 1.2 Report Structure .................................................................................................. 4 1.3 Caveats ................................................................................................................ 5 1.4 How Much Water is Available in the Middle Illinois WSPR? ........................... 5 1.4.1 Acknowledgments........................................................................................... 6 2 Water Use and Demand Projections for the Middle Illinois WSPR .................... 9 2.1 Water Use in the Middle Illinois WSPR ............................................................. 9 2.2 Water Demand Projections: Methodology........................................................ 10 2.3 Water Demand Projections: Results ................................................................. 13 2.3.1 Self-Supplied Water for Thermoelectric Power Generation ......................... 13 2.3.2 Self-Supplied Water for Industrial-Commercial Uses .................................. 15 2.3.3 Public Water Systems ................................................................................... 18 2.3.4 Other Water Demand Sectors ....................................................................... 21 2.3.5 Summary of Water Demand Scenarios in the Middle Illinois WSPR .......... 21 3 Groundwater Studies in Middle Illinois ............................................................... 24 3.1 Aquifers of Illinois ............................................................................................ 24 3.2 Geologic Overview ........................................................................................... 24 3.3 Hydrostratigraphic Units of Middle Illinois ..................................................... 25 3.4 The Illinois Groundwater Flow Model ............................................................. 31 3.5 Sand and Gravel Aquifers in the Middle Illinois WSPR .................................. 32 3.5.1 Model Simulations ........................................................................................ 36 3.5.2 Water Quality ................................................................................................ 39 3.6 Shallow Bedrock Aquifers in the Middle Illinois WSPR ................................. 42 3.7 Sandstone Aquifers in the Middle Illinois WSPR ............................................ 42 3.7.1 Water Quality ................................................................................................ 53 3.8 Groundwater Risks............................................................................................ 55 3.8.1 Risks to Sand and Gravel Supplies ............................................................... 55 3.8.2 Sandstone Aquifers ....................................................................................... 57 3.8.3 Single Supply Risk ........................................................................................ 59 4 Surface Water Studies in Middle Illinois .............................................................. 60 4.1 Surface Water System ....................................................................................... 60 4.2 Surface Water Demand ..................................................................................... 63 4.3 Hydrologic Analysis ......................................................................................... 65 4.3.1 Available Hydrologic Records ...................................................................... 65 4.3.2 Changes in Illinois River Low Flows ........................................................... 68 4.3.3 Water Supply Drought in the Middle Illinois ............................................... 74 4.4 Effluent Discharges ........................................................................................... 77 4.5 Water Diversions .............................................................................................. 80 4.5.1 Lake Michigan Diversion ............................................................................. 80 4.5.2 Hennepin Canal Diversion ............................................................................ 82 4.6 Low Flow Fluctuations in the Upper Illinois Waterway .................................. 82 4.6.1 Illinois Waterway Locks and Dams .............................................................. 83 4.6.2 Impact of Current Lock Operations .............................................................. 85 i Contents (Concluded) Page 4.6.3 Hydraulic Simulations of Alternative Lock Operations ............................... 87 4.7 Public Water Systems ....................................................................................... 89 4.7.1 Yield Analysis ............................................................................................... 89 4.7.2 Pontiac Public Water System ........................................................................ 90 4.7.3 Streator Public Water System ....................................................................... 93 4.7.4 Peoria Public Water System.......................................................................... 96 4.8 Illinois Streamflow Assessment Model (ILSAM) ............................................ 97 4.8.1 ILSAM .......................................................................................................... 97 4.8.2 Middle Illinois ILSAM Model for Gaged Sites ............................................ 98 4.8.3 Middle Illinois ILSAM Model for Ungaged Sites ........................................ 99 4.8.4 Calibration of the Middle Illinois ILSAM Model....................................... 100 5 Summary and Recommendations ........................................................................ 102 5.1 Summary ......................................................................................................... 102 5.1.1 Water Demands ........................................................................................... 102 5.1.2 Groundwater ............................................................................................... 102 5.1.3 Surface Water.............................................................................................. 104 5.2 Recommendations for Future Work................................................................ 104 5.2.1 Water Demands ........................................................................................... 104 5.2.2 Groundwater ............................................................................................... 105 5.2.3 Surface Water.............................................................................................. 105 6 References .............................................................................................................. 106 Appendix A. Well Water Quality Sampling ............................................................... 112 ii List of Figures Page Figure 1. Water supply planning regions (WSPRs) in Illinois ....................................................... 7 Figure 2. Map showing the seven counties, major rivers, and major cities in the Middle Illinois WSPR .............................................................................................................................................. 8 Figure 3. Estimated historical water demand in the Middle Illinois WSPR in 2010 .................... 10 Figure 4. Self-supplied IC demand (Mgd) in 2010 for non-mining uses by county (United States Geological Survey, 2014) ............................................................................................................. 16 Figure 5. Self-supplied IC demand (Mgd) in 2010 for mining uses by county (United States Geological Survey, 2014) ............................................................................................................. 17 Figure 6. The 24 dominant public water systems designated by (Meyer et al., In press) ............. 19 Figure 7. Projected (2015-2060) water demand in the Middle Illinois WSPR for all demand sectors except self-supplied thermoelectric power generation ..................................................... 22 Figure 8. Climate-normalized historical (2010) and projected (2015-2060) water demand in the Middle Illinois WSPR
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