INDUSTRY MARKET RESEARCH FOR BUSINESS LEADERS, STRATEGISTS, DECISION MAKERS CLICK TO VIEW
Table of Contents 2
List of Tables & Charts 3
Study Overview 4
Sample Text, Table & Chart 5
Sample Profile, Table & Forecast 6
Order Form 7
About Freedonia, Custom Research, Related Studies, photo: Toyota photo: Corporate Use License 8
World Light-Duty Green Vehicles
Industry Study with Forecasts for 2013 & 2018
Study #2510 | August 2009 | $5700 | 317 pages
The Freedonia Group 767 Beta Drive www.freedoniagroup.com Cleveland, OH • 44143-2326 • USA Toll Free US Tel: 800.927.5900 or +1 440.684.9600 Fax: +1 440.646.0484 E-mail: [email protected] Study #2510 August 2009 World Light-Duty Green Vehicles $5700 317 Pages Industry Study with Forecasts for 2013 & 2018 Table of Contents WESTERN EUROPE Continental AG...... 245 Executive Summary Daimler AG...... 247 General ...... 107 DENSO Corporation...... 251 Market EnvironmenT Green Vehicle Demand by Type...... 111 Fiat SpA...... 253 Italy...... 112 Ford Motor...... 255 General ...... 4 France...... 117 Fuji Heavy Industries...... 259 World Economic Overview...... 8 Germany...... 124 General Motors...... 261 Recent Historical Trends...... 8 United Kingdom...... 130 Green Propulsion...... 267 World Economic Outlook...... 11 Sweden...... 136 GS Yuasa...... 268 World Population Overview...... 14 Other Western Europe...... 141 Honda Motor...... 270 World Households...... 16 Hyundai Motor...... 273 World Light Vehicle Overview...... 18 ASIA/PACIFIC Infineon Technologies...... 276 Light Vehicle Production...... 19 Iran Khodro...... 277 Light Vehicle Sales...... 23 General ...... 146 Lightning Car...... 278 Environmental & Regulatory Factors...... 25 Green Vehicle Demand by Type...... 151 Mitsubishi Motors...... 279 Regulatory Convergence...... 26 Japan...... 152 Nissan Motor...... 281 Drivers of Regulatory Change...... 28 China...... 159 Panasonic Corporation...... 285 Pricing Trends...... 30 India...... 166 Peugeot SA...... 287 Competitive Assessment...... 33 Australia...... 171 Phoenix Motorcars...... 289 Green Vehicle Technology Assessment...... 41 South Korea...... 176 Project Better Place...... 290 Pure Electric Vehicles...... 41 Other Asia/Pacific...... 181 Renault SA...... 291 Hybrid-Electric Vehicles...... 43 REVA Electric Car...... 293 Full Hybrid ...... 44 Saft Groupe...... 295 Mild Hybrid ...... 46 OTHER REGIONS SAIPA Group...... 298 Plug-In Hybrid...... 47 Latin America...... 186 SANYO Electric...... 299 Natural Gas Vehicles...... 48 Macroeconomic & Green Vehicle Overview... 186 Tata Motors...... 300 Competing Technologies...... 48 Green Vehicle Demand by Type...... 190 Tesla Motors...... 302 Internal Combustion Engines...... 48 Eastern Europe...... 192 Think Global...... 304 Spark Ignition Internal Macroeconomic & Green Vehicle Overview... 192 Toyota Motor...... 306 Combustion Engines...... 49 Green Vehicle Demand by Type...... 196 Visionary Vehicles...... 312 Diesel Internal Combustion Engines...... 51 Africa/Mideast...... 197 Volkswagen AG...... 313 Flexible Fuel Internal Combustion Engines 54 Macroeconomic & Green Vehicle Overview... 197 ZAP AG...... 315 Fuel Cell Powered Vehicles...... 56 Green Vehicle Demand by Type...... 201 ZF Friedrichshafen AG...... 316 Energy Storage Technology...... 59
INDUSTRY STRUCTURE WORLD OVERVIEW General ...... 203 List of Tables/Charts General ...... 61 Industry Composition & Market Share...... 206 World Light-Duty Green Vehicle HEV, EV & PHEV Light Vehicle Market Share 208 Supply & Demand Trends...... 62 Natural Gas Light Vehicle Market Share...... 211 Demand by Region...... 65 Mergers, Acquisitions & Executive Summary Supply by Region...... 67 Industry Restructuring...... 212 1 Summary Table...... 3 Foreign Trade...... 69 Research & Product Development...... 216 World Light-Duty Green Vehicle Park...... 71 Manufacturing...... 221 World Light-Duty Green Vehicle Marketing...... 222 Market EnvironmenT Demand by Type...... 74 Distribution...... 224 Natural Gas Vehicles...... 74 Financial Issues & Requirements...... 226 Cht Global Green Vehicle Demand Scenarios..... 5 Conventional Hybrid-Electric Vehicles...... 77 Strategic Partnerships...... 228 1 World Gross Domestic Product Electric Vehicles...... 79 by Region...... 14 Plug-In Hybrid-Electric Vehicles...... 81 2 World Population by Region...... 16 Company Profiles 3 World Households by Region...... 18 4 World Light Vehicle Production by Region 23 AC Propulsion...... 232 NORTH AMERICA 5 World Light Vehicle Sales by Region...... 25 Aisin Seiki...... 233 Cht Honda Civic Hybrid & NGV Model General ...... 83 Ballard Power Systems...... 235 Breakeven Versus Civic ICE Model, Green Vehicle Demand by Type...... 87 Bayerische Motoren Werke...... 236 US Market Example, 2009 Data...... 31 United States...... 88 Bosch (Robert) GmbH...... 238 Cht Options for Improving Light Vehicle Canada...... 96 BYD Company...... 241 Fuel Efficiency...... 34 Mexico...... 100 Chrysler Group...... 242 (continued on next page)
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(continued from previous page) 7 Mexico Macroeconomic Indicators 6 China Light-Duty Green Vehicle & Light-Duty Green Vehicle Demand by Type...... 166 Cht Alternative Powerplant Forces at Work...... 35 Supply & Demand...... 104 7 India Macroeconomic Indicators Cht Light Vehicle Powerplant Technology 8 Mexico Light-Duty Green Vehicle & Light-Duty Green Vehicle Assessment (Next Decade)...... 38 Demand by Type...... 106 Supply & Demand...... 169 Cht Price/Benefits Comparison 8 India Light-Duty Green Vehicle of Selected Light-Duty Demand by Type...... 171 Green Vehicles, 2009 Model Year...... 40 WESTERN EUROPE 9 Australia Macroeconomic Indicators Cht Types of Hybrid-Electric 1 Western Europe Macroeconomic Indicators & Light-Duty Green Vehicle Vehicle Technologies...... 44 & Light-Duty Green Vehicle Supply & Demand...... 174 6 World Gasoline Direct-Injection Supply & Demand...... 110 10 Australia Light-Duty Green Vehicle Light Vehicle Sales by Region...... 51 2 Western Europe Light-Duty Green Vehicle Demand by Type...... 176 7 World Diesel Light Vehicle Demand by Type...... 112 11 South Korea Macroeconomic Indicators Sales by Region...... 54 3 Italy Macroeconomic Indicators & Light-Duty Green Vehicle 8 World Flexible Fuel Light Vehicle & Light-Duty Green Vehicle Supply & Demand...... 179 Sales by Region...... 56 Supply & Demand...... 115 12 South Korea Light-Duty Green Vehicle 9 World Commercial Motor Vehicle 4 Italy Light-Duty Green Vehicle Demand by Type...... 181 Fuel Cell Demand by Chemistry, Demand by Type...... 117 13 Other Asia/Pacific Macroeconomic Region & Product...... 58 5 France Macroeconomic Indicators Indicators & Light-Duty Green & Light-Duty Green Vehicle Vehicle Supply & Demand...... 183 WORLD OVERVIEW Supply & Demand...... 120 14 Other Asia/Pacific Light-Duty 6 France Light-Duty Green Vehicle Green Vehicle Demand by Type...... 185 1 World Light-Duty Green Vehicle Demand by Type...... 123 Supply & Demand...... 64 7 Germany Macroeconomic Indicators OTHER REGIONS 2 World Light-Duty Green Vehicle & Light-Duty Green Vehicle Demand by Region...... 67 Supply & Demand...... 127 1 Latin America Macroeconomic Indicators 3 World Light-Duty Green Vehicle 8 Germany Light-Duty Green Vehicle & Light-Duty Green Vehicle Supply by Region...... 69 Demand by Type...... 130 Supply & Demand...... 189 4 World Light-Duty Green 9 United Kingdom Macroeconomic Indicators 2 Latin America Light-Duty Green Vehicle Vehicle Net Exports...... 71 & Light-Duty Green Vehicle Demand by Type...... 192 5 World Light-Duty Green Vehicle Park...... 73 Supply & Demand...... 134 3 Eastern Europe Macroeconomic Indicators 6 World Light-Duty Green Vehicle 10 United Kingdom Light-Duty & Light-Duty Green Vehicle Demand by Type...... 74 Green Vehicle Demand by Type...... 136 Supply & Demand...... 195 7 World Light-Duty Natural Gas 11 Sweden Macroeconomic Indicators 4 Eastern Europe Light-Duty Green Vehicle Demand...... 76 & Light-Duty Green Vehicle Vehicle Demand by Type...... 197 8 World Light-Duty Conventional Supply & Demand...... 139 5 Africa/Mideast Macroeconomic Indicators Hybrid-Electric Vehicle Demand...... 78 12 Sweden Light-Duty Green Vehicle & Light-Duty Green Vehicle 9 World Light-Duty Pure Electric Demand by Type...... 141 Supply & Demand...... 200 Vehicle Demand...... 80 13 Other Western Europe Macroeconomic 6 Africa/Mideast Light-Duty Green Vehicle 10 World Light-Duty Plug-In Hybrid-Electric Indicators & Light-Duty Green Vehicle Demand by Type...... 202 Vehicle Demand...... 82 Supply & Demand...... 143 14 Other Western Europe Light-Duty INDUSTRY STRUCTURE NORTH AMERICA Green Vehicle Demand by Type...... 145 1 Sales of Selected Light-Duty 1 North America Macroeconomic Indicators ASIA/PACIFIC Green Vehicle Producers, 2008...... 205 & Light-Duty Green Vehicle Cht Light-Duty Green Vehicle Supply & Demand...... 86 1 Asia/Pacific Macroeconomic Indicators Market Share, 2008...... 208 2 North America Light-Duty & Light-Duty Green Vehicle Cht Light-Duty HEV, EV & PHEV Green Vehicle Demand...... 88 Supply & Demand...... 150 Market Share, 2008...... 209 3 United States Macroeconomic Indicators 2 Asia/Pacific Light-Duty Green Vehicle Cht Light-Duty Natural Gas Vehicle & Light-Duty Green Vehicle Demand by Type...... 152 Market Share, 2008...... 211 Supply & Demand...... 92 3 Japan Macroeconomic Indicators & 2 Selected Acquisitions & Divestitures...... 215 4 United States Light-Duty Green Vehicle Light-Duty Green Vehicle Cht Trigger Technology Definition, Antilock Demand by Type...... 95 Supply & Demand...... 156 Brake System Example...... 218 5 Canada Macroeconomic Indicators 4 Japan Light-Duty Green Vehicle Cht Green Vehicle Technologies with & Light-Duty Green Vehicle Demand by Type...... 158 Multiple Possible Applications...... 220 Supply & Demand...... 98 5 China Macroeconomic Indicators 3 Selected Cooperative Agreements...... 229 6 Canada Light-Duty Green Vehicle & Light-Duty Green Vehicle Demand by Type...... 100 Supply & Demand...... 163
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Gains in demand will be driven by intensified government support, technology breakthroughs, increasingly erratic oil prices, and concerns about the environment and energy independence.
Global demand to expand Asia/Pacific World Light-Duty Green Vehicle rapidly through 2013 22% Worldwide demand for light-duty “green” Demand, 2008 vehicles will expand rapidly to four (1.8 million units) million units in 2013, propelled by a North America confluence of intensified government 20% support, technology breakthroughs and increasingly erratic oil prices. These environmentally friendly light vehicles -- Western Europe 10% hybrid-electric vehicles (HEVs), plug-in Other Regions hybrid-electric vehicles (PHEVs), pure 48% electric vehicles (EVs) and natural gas vehicles (NGVs) -- will begin to penetrate the world light vehicle market in re- sponse to increasing concerns regarding carbon dioxide emissions, energy
independence and overall “sustainability” Toyota photo: issues. Cost disparities between green and conventional light vehicles currently range from about $3,000 for conven- tional HEVs to more than $10,000 for than conventional internal combustion demand and OEMs introduce new some PHEVs and EVs. With much green engine (ICE) vehicles, electrified green models. vehicle demand dependent on govern- vehicles have begun to carve out a loyal ment subsidies, governments already fuel-efficiency focused niche in the US China, India to become reeling from a continuing severe global market. Moving beyond this niche status economic downturn could find such will be the primary industry challenge key green vehicle markets subsidies unsustainable if significant going forward. Elsewhere in the Asia/Pacific region, volumes do materialize. both China and India are expected to Green vehicle demand in Western become key green vehicle markets over US green vehicle market Europe, where overall light vehicle diesel the next ten years, due to government to lead demand in Triad sales already exceed 50 percent of the interest in dealing with mobile emissions, total market, will be significantly lower and because local production is planned. Within the Triad, the US market is than in the US, although some bright Other regions of the world will likely expected to experience the highest spots for selected green technologies, remain focused on NGVs, due to the low levels of demand for green vehicles, due such as Italy’s preference for NGVs, will expense involved in converting them to erratic fuel costs, the market’s unique persist. Japan will see increased de- from conventional light vehicles, and the and rising Corporate Average Fuel mand for green vehicles going forward, relative cheapness of natural gas Economy (CAFÉ) requirements, and the as government agencies and allied compared to gasoline or diesel fuel. relative lack of demand for light vehicle associations continue to put tax and diesels. Despite being less cost-effective other incentives in place to stimulate Copyright 2009 The Freedonia Group, Inc.
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Sample Text, TABLE V-6 Table & Chart FRANCE LIGHT-DUTY GREEN VEHICLE DEMAND BY TYPE (000 units)
Item 1998 2003 2008 2013 2018
Light Vehicle Demand 2300 2395 2515 2500 2595 % green neg 0.1 0.8 4.2 11.8
western europe Light-Duty Green Vehicle Demand 1 sam2 20ple 105 305 Natural Gas Vehicles 1 1 2 3 5 France: Green Vehicle Demand by Type Conventional Hybrid-Electric Vehicles -- t1ab le9 41 92 Demand for green vehicle in France is expected to rise rapidly Purefrom Electric Vehicles -- neg 9 60 200 a small base, reaching 105,000 units in 2013. Demand will be driven Plug-In in Hybrid Vehicles ------1 8 part by the embrace of hybrid and electric vehicle technologies by local producerssam PSAple and Renault, and by the significant support the French government has begun to offer in terms of subsidized loans, large-scale demonstrations and infrastructure support. Demand will be tempered by the country’stext recession-damaged economy and the high tax- and fee- related costs associated with owning and operating an automobile.
The French market has been a leader in the penetration of light vehicle diesels, registrations of which comprised roughly 80 percent of the total market in 2008. However, French OEMs have also been European leaders in the introduction of alternative fuel vehicles. PSA, for example, has been an early experimenter with many new and fuel efficient powertrain technologies. Peugeot produced several thousand hybrid vehicles for the European commercial market for use as delivery vehicles prior to 2004, but ended the experiment due to the higher cost compared to traditional diesel engines.
Demand for NGVs will remain low in France, with just over 10,000 NGVs of all sizes on the road in 2008 and just over 100 fueling stations, 97 of which are privately owned. The auto industry and government agencies are focused more intently on supporting the propagation of PHEVs and EVs, in part because of France’s structural advantages in terms of electricity generation. Over 75 percent of the country’s electric- ity is produced by low-carbon-dioxide-emitting nuclear power. CHART VIII-1
Nonetheless, PSA Peugeot Citroen does offer light vehicles that inLIGHT-DUTY- GREEN VEHICLE MARKET SHARE, 2008 corporate CNG technology. For example, in France and other European (1.8 million units) countries, PSA Peugeot Citroen produces and sells the CITROEN C3 five-seater car, which is engineered to run on CNG or gasoline. The
121 Copyright 2009 The Freedonia Group, Inc. 25% T o yo ta
M a r ket O th er s sample L ead er s 54% 46% chart 10% Iran K h o d ro
5% F iat 4% G en eral M o to rs 2% H o n d a
Click here to purchase online Page Order now, click here! Study #2510 August 2009 World Light-Duty Green Vehicles $5700 317 Pages Industry Study with Forecasts for 2013 & 2018
Sample Profile, TABLE V-5 Table & Forecast FRANCE MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS & LIGHT DUTY GREEN VEHICLE SUPPLY & DEMAND (000 units) Item 1998 2003 2008 2013 2018
Population (mil persons) 58.6 60.3 62.0 63.3 64.5 GDP/capita 29200 31720 33710 34830 37980 Gross Domestic Product (bil 2007$) 1711 1913 2090 2205 2450
Households (mil units) 23.6 25.2 26.9 28.4 29.6
vehicle/000 capita 39.2 39.7 40.6 39.5 40.2 vehicle/mil $ GDP 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.1 COMPANY PROFILES vehicle/000 households 97.5 95.0 93.5 88.0 87.7 sample Tesla Motors Incorporated Light Vehicle Demand 2300 2395 2515 2500 2595 1050 Bing Street % green neg t0.1ab 0.8le 4.2 11.8 San Carlos, CA 94070 650-413-4000 Green Vehicle Demand 1 2 20 105 305 http://www.teslamotors.com net exports & sales from inventory -1 -2 -16 -95 -245 Annual Sales: $5 million (estimated) Employment: 175 (estimated)sample Green Vehicle Production -- -- 4 10 60
Key Products: electric vehiclesprofile Light Vehicle Park (mil units) 31.5 34.7 36.2 37.7 39.0 % green neg neg 0.1 0.8 2.8 Tesla Motors designs, manufactures and sells all-electric, zero- emission cars. The privately held company sells its electric vehiclesGreen Vehicle Park 3 10 50 300 1100 (EVs) in the US and Europe. In May 2009, Daimler AG (Germany) purchased an equity stake of nearly ten-percent of Tesla Motors.
The Company participates in the world green vehicle industry through the production and sale of TESLA ROADSTER EVs, as well as the development of new EVs and related technologies through its independent operations and cooperative partnerships with third-party firms. Tesla Motors operates mainly via its headquarters and research “HEV demand in France is expected development site in San Carlos, California. The Company plans to relocate the operations of the San Carlos site to a consolidated campus to grow strongly from a small base as in San Jose, California. Other operations include a research and regional automakers, including France’s development office in Rochester Hills, Michigan; two sales and service PSA, introduce more models. PSA Peu- facilities in Menlo Park, California; and a sales and service center in geot Citroen’s hybrid HDi combines a London, the UK, which opened in April 2009. In October 2008, in relation to the Company’s consolidation plans, Tesla Motors announced 1.6-liter diesel engine, a particulate filter its intentions to close the Rochester Hills site. system, a stop-start system, and a high voltage battery pack. Even though Re- TESLA ROADSTER two-door models accelerate from 0 to 60 in nault has criticized HEVs as a green solu- about four seconds and have a top speed of approximately 200 km per tion, the company has recently developed 166 Copyright 2009 The Freedonia Group, Inc. an HEV concept vehicle, the ONDELIOS hybrid concept car, which ...” --Section V, pg. 122
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Page 7 INDUSTRY MARKET RESEARCH FOR BUSINESS LEADERS, STRATEGISTS, DECISION MAKERS
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Page 8 The Freedonia Group, Inc. 767 Beta Drive • Cleveland, OH • 44143-2326 • USA • Web site: www.freedoniagroup.com Tel US: 800.927.5900 or +1 440.684.9600 • Fax: +1 440.646.0484 • e-mail: [email protected]