Crab-Like Into The Future The strategic vision of has given way to the pragmatism of Major and Kinnock. David Marquand speculates where the UK might be in 2000...

rophecy has always been a By the same token, the only thing we 'The only two ago. mug's game. At a time of know for certain about the year 2000 is For most of the last 300 years, rapid and disorientating that it will be different from 1991, in thing we the state and civil society followed change, it is even more fool- ways we cannot now foretell. Yet trend- know for parallel trajectories. 'Modernising' hardPy than usual. Ten years ago, the spotting is more than a parlour game. It certain about states faced 'modernising' civil socie- second cold war was at its height, Shir- makes sense to try to anticipate the the year ties, and vice versa. Rationalisation, or- ley Williams had just been elected for future, even though things are almost ganisation, uniformity - the quin- Crosby, and the SDP-Liberal Alliance certain to turn out differently, if only 2000 is that tessential hallmarks of the state - was scoring around 50% in the opinion because the alternative is to drift help- it will be increasingly became the hallmarks of polls. Michael Foot led the Labour Party; lessly with the current. Though we can- different civil society, at any rate in what were Brezhnevite 'stagnation' reigned in the not know what the world will be like at from 1991, in held to be its 'advanced' sectors. Small Soviet Union; and although the Euro- the end of the century, we can chart the firms, craft guilds, self-employed pean Community was deep into its sec- course that events are taking now. Only ways we workers still survived, of course, but ond enlargement, worldly-wise British by doing so can we take avoiding action if cannot now they were seen as sociological detritus commentators took it for granted that they are moving in the wrong foretell' which history would soon clear away. the federalist dreams of the founding direction. The process reached its apogee in the fathers had been in vain. A correct There is not much doubt about the postwar Keynesian welfare states of prediction of what has actually hap- direction of the global trends which the West and stalinist-leninist states of pened in the last decade - in Britain, in have already transformed the political the East, with their rational bureaucra- Europe or in the world at large - would economies of the industrial West and cies, modernising agendas and teleolo- have seemed a sign of mental which seem, if anything, even more gical governing philosophies. Now it disorder. powerful now than they did a year or has come to an end. For good or ill (and,

38 MARXISM TODAY DECEMBER 1991 as always, good and ill have gone to- destroyed, rather than those of the 19th 'More and ciety; and, not least, on the accidents of gether), civil society has started to fol- or early 20th centuries. The state sur- personality and contingencies of fate. low a baffling new trajectory, cul- vives; but except in the formal, legal more, the turally, technologically and in the econ- sense it is no longer the supreme auth- true map of By any reckoning, the course followed by omy, in which differentiation, diversifi- ority within a defined territory. It has to governance the British state has been one of the cation and disorganisation are com- bargain with multinational companies in the least happy in the industrial West. The bined with a strange kind of trans- strong enough to play one state off worldwide upheavals of the 1970s hit an nationalisation. But the logic of the against another and anticipate or react modern already-debilitated British economy state is still the old 'modernising' logic; to the opinion swings of foreign world particularly hard. Successive govern- and it finds it painfully hard to accom- exchange dealers whose operations no resembles ments failed to mobilise consent for modate itself to the change. state can control. Partly because econo- the their attempts to cope with the con- he results have varied from mic development can now be fostered sequences, sometimes abjectly. Yet in place to place. In the former more effectively at lower levels of patchwork spite of a radical change of direction at communist bloc, the cultural government, and partly because the quilt of the end of the decade, the problems and economic transforma- cultural shift of the last 25 years has medieval which baffled the government of the Ttion of the last 25 years provoked a kind encouraged a rebirth of local and re- 1960s and 1970s are still in evidence in Europe' of implosion of the stalinist-leninist gional identities, it increasingly shares the early 1990s. The British economy is state. Despite crises of varying inten- its power with state or provincial autho- no more competitive now than it was in sity in some countries, however, the rities closer to the people. In its Euro- 1981. The symbiosis between public and liberal-democratic state is not dead, or pean birthplace, it also shares power private power, which is one of the hall- even dying. Its fate has been more com- with the now proto-federal institutions marks of the most successful econo- plex. Its boundaries - conceptual and of the European Community. It has mies in the modern world, is as elusive geographical - are losing meaning. Pol- ceased to be the sole custodian of the as ever. Meanwhile, Britain has found it icy areas where its writ used to run interests of its people. It is part of a more difficult than almost any other have slipped out of its control. New complex grid of overlapping and inter- member-state of the European Com- problems have emerged, which it can penetrating institutions with compe- munity to reconstruct its territorial solve only in concert with other institu- tences that cut across its own. constitution to meet the need for tions, at least partially independent of The liberal-democratic states of the greater local autonomy, on the one it. Other loyalties and identities have industrial West have encountered these hand, or to come to terms with the started to pull against the loyalties on upheavals in different ways. All states Community's transition from loose-knit which it used to call and the identities it have drawn in their horns to some confederation to quasi-federation, on used to subsume. And because of all degree. 'Heroic', top-down national the other. this, as Ghita Ionescu brilliantly shows planning has been abandoned almost The central question for the future of in an important new book1, the trad- everywhere. Most states have become British politics is whether the British itional notion of sovereignty, which has more parsimonious in their approach to state will adapt more successfully in the been fundamental to it since its first social welfare. Beyond such broad gen- next decade than it has done in the last appearance on the stage of European eralities, however, what strikes the ob- two. The obstacles are formidable; if politics in the early-modern period, no server most is the specificity of each they were not, they would have been longer has much purchase on reality. national experience. The course fol- overcome already. They have to do, not More and more, the true map of gover- lowed by any particular state has de- just with the vested interests of the nance in the modern world resembles pended on its own structures and tradi- political parties, important though the patchwork quilt of medieval Eur- tions; on the technological, economic those are, but with the genetic code of ope, which the emerging nation-state and cultural inheritance of its civil so- the state itself - with its reliance on

39 MARXISM TODAY DECEMBER 1991 inherited authority, immemorial cus- Thatcherite project required it to do. It which founded the community in the tom, tacit understandings; with its trad- could not defy the logic of European first place, and which still form its ition of passive, as opposed to participa- integration, any more than the French heartland, we can look forward to a tory, citizenship; with the related trad- state had been able to defy it in 1981. If single currency, a single central bank, a ition of strong and autonomous execu- Britain were to remain in the Commu- uniform monetary policy and harmo- tive power which was so widely nity at all - and not even the most nised budgetary policies by the end of celebrated in the postwar period. Most fervent Thatcherites ever contemplated the century. Political union is a different of all, they have to do with the nexus of life outside it - it could not draw a ring matter, but there too the pressure to values and presuppositions implied by fence around monetary union once its move toward a kind of quasi-federation, the notion of an indefeasible and abso- partners had recognised this to be an at the lowest level, is almost irresistible. lutely sovereign crown-in-parliament, inevitable corollary of a genuinely t is more difficult to guess what the sources of whose authority are im- single market. Much the same was true, will happen outside the heart- penetrable to mere human reason. though in a far more complicated fash- land, but the odds are that some, These values and presuppositions are ion, of central-local relations. Here, the at least, of the recent entrants plainly out of joint with a sensibility central state had the legal authority to anId even some of those now seeking that increasingly extols variety, auto- do what it wished. But when it tried to entry will participate in this quasi- nomy, authenticity and self-fulfilment. complete the subordination of local federation as fully as the Six. In a Com- Less obviously, but just as importantly, government by applying a consumerist munity divided between a rapidly in- they run against the grain of productive model to the financing of local services, tegrating core and a slow-moving processes to which self-reliance, flexi- the political price turned out to be too periphery, the core can be expected to bility and high levels of human capital high for Conservative backbenchers' 'Kinnockism include Spain, Ireland, perhaps Den- are fundamental. Last, but by no means pockets. is simply the mark and conceivably Austria as well as least, they are at odds with the two great France, Germany, Italy and the Bene- themes of contemporary European pol- The end of Thatcherism has, however, left a mirror image lux countries. If it did, it would stretch itical economy, upward transfers of vacuum which nobody has yet rushed in of Majorism - from Limerick to Vienna and from Ber- competence to the Community and to fill. Majorism is not a project in the equally lin to Cadiz. Britain could, of course, opt downward transfers to the region or sense that Thatcherism was a project. It decent, for the periphery, as it did in the 1950s. province. To ask if the British state can is a sort of ragout of old-style Tory But exclusion from the decision-making adapt more successfully in the 1990s paternalism and new-style Thatcherite equally a processes of the core - albeit self- than it did in the 1970s or 1980s is, in entrepreneurialism, laced with upward mishmash of imposed - would be even more painful short, to ask it if it can experience a sort social mobility and the palpable per- old and new, in the 1990s than it was 40 years ago. of voluntary mutation, to which history sonal decency of its author. It may suf- equally Though there can be no certainty, the offers singularly few parallels. fice to win the Conservatives the next overwhelming probability is that the here is, of course, no way of election, though that looks less likely lacking in logic which took Britain into the Com- telling. What is clear is that than it did a year ago. There is no solutions to munity in the first place will also take it the Thatcherite attempt to evidence that it offers any solution the problems into its next, proto-federalist, phase - avoid the problem has failed. whatever - good, bad or indifferent — that really more slowly than the heartland coun- TIn essence, the Thatcherites tried to do to the long-drawn-out crisis of maladap- tries, no doubt, but more quickly than two things. In the sphere of private tation which grips the British state. And matter' either front bench can conceive at the consumption, the way was to be cleared Kinnockism is simply the mirror image moment. for civil society's new trajectory. Bri- of Majorism - equally decent, equally a The second chapter has to do with the tain was to be locked ever more tightly mishmash of old and new, equally lack- even more sensitive questions of terri- into the interdependent world economy, ing in solutions to the problems that toriality, identity and nationhood. In the with its global markets, global swings of really matter. non-English nations of the United King- fashion and global companies. In shop- This makes prediction even more haz- dom, the last few years have seen a ping malls, house agents' brochures, ardous than usual. I cannot believe that vigorous, sometimes passionate (and, in mail-order catalogues and foreign things will go on indefinitely as they are the case of Northern Ireland, bloody) exchange houses, variety, autonomy now. And since the Thatcherite solution debate about the meaning of nationality and self-fulfilment were to be given has failed once, it is hard to believe that and its relationship with the British their heads. If borrowers wished to any other solution from that stable state. In that debate, the English have mortgage their futures for the sake of could succeed. The obvious implication mostly been silent, but in spite of their present consumption, or if asset is that, instead of trying to tailor civil silence, there is no longer any doubt strippers wished to sacrifice the long- society to the state, British govern- that 'Britain' is a multi-national state, or term interest of the economy to short- ments will sooner or later start to tailor that the relationship between that state term profit, nobody was to say them nay. the state to civil society. In this country, and its constituent nations is in conten- But in every other sphere (including it is true, 'sooner or later' has a nasty tion, as it has not been since the crisis the sphere of production), civil society habit of meaning 'quite a lot later'; and, over Irish home rule. And, as the furore was to be forced back into the trad- unless the crisis of maladaptation turns over the poll tax showed, the territorial itional mould of the state. Hierarchy, ugly - which it may - I have a hunch that constitution of the dominant English authority and patriarchy were to be this is what it will mean on this occa- nation is equally in flux. Of all these restored to their rightful place - in sion. But although it is hard to imagine a sources of instability, however, only the government, in firms, in schools, in clap of thunder suddenly bringing the Scottish question has the potential to nationalised industries, in local authori- most narcissistic and inward-looking provoke a crisis of state. ties, even, if possible, in families. And political class in western Europe to its The long agony of Northern Ireland just as there was to be no nonsense senses, the steady drip, drip, drip of can be contained; the English periphery about power-sharing in industry or in events will surely tell its own story. lacks sufficient sense of identity to the management of the economy, so The European chapter in that story is mount a serious challenge to the hege- there was to be no nonsense about pool- the easiest to read. Whatever happens mony of the centre; language divides ing sovereignty in the European Com- in the wider Europe which now the Welsh against themselves. But, as munity or about devolving power from stretches, on some definitions, to the Scottish constitutional convention the south-eastern core of the British Poland's eastern border, the little Eur- has shown, the Scots are on the march. state to the nations and regions north ope of Brussels, Luxembourg and Stras- They have lost their role as junior and west of the Severn-Trent line. bourg is virtually certain to move partners in the directorate of the Brit- Thatcher's fall brought that project to further and faster along the road to ish empire - the prize for which they an end. In certain critical spheres, at federation. It may or may not use that signed the Act of Union in the first place any rate, it turned out that the British word, but the thing has become almost - and, logically enough, they now wish state was simply too weak to do what the inescapable. In the six member states to renegotiate it. Since they cannot be

41 MARXISM TODAY DECEMBER 1991 kept in the existing union against their of continuing Conservative rule. The wishes, a renegotiation of some sort is decencies of John Major, combined with Grave New World inevitable. The question is: what sort? the social-market rhetoric of Christ- What is the greatest challenge Two possibilities stand out. One (it opher Patten, win the next election for facing the world after the might be called the Thames Valley op- their party; and having won in 1992, the collapse of communism? Some tion) would be to concede Scottish home inertia of custom carries them to vic- of the world's leading thinkers rule, at the price of drastically reduced tory in 1996 or 1997 as well. After an give their answers. Scottish representation at Westminster. initial spasm of pain, Britain begins a The Scots would get what they want, and slow, crab-like progress towards Euro- the hegemony of the south-east over pean federalism; the territorial ques- and the English periphery would tion is answered in Thames Valley fash- be reinforced. The other - the federalist, ion; though nobody openly repudiates or perhaps crypto-federalist, option - the Thatcher legacy, its acerbities are would be to combine Scottish home rule softened; and though the contradiction with varying degrees of autonomy for between state and civil society is not Wales and those English regions which resolved, it gradually becomes less wished to have it. It would be the most acute - not because the state suddenly damaging blow to the hegemony of the changes course, but because it grad- south-east since the end of the Danelaw. ually becomes more humble and more humdrum. 'Instead of At this point, a third, more sordid, chapter he second scenario is that of trying to comes into the discussion. This has to do reborn Labourism. Kinnock You ask: 'What is the greatest with the party system, and more parti- pulls it off in 1992; a combina- challenge facing the world tailor civil cularly with the relationship between tion of the disciplines of the after the collapse of commun- society to the the future of the parties and the future TExchange Rate Mechanism and the ism?' Apart from the fact that Chinese communism may still state, British of the state. On the European question, dour rectitude of John Smith ensures prove highly destructive be- governments there is no longer much to choose be- that, for the first time in its history, fore its collapse, there are tween the government and the opposi- Labour does not blow its chance quite a few challenges remain- will sooner tion. For the moment, Labour is slightly through fiscal imprudence at the begin- ing from the collapse of the or later start more enthusiastic about further in- ning of its term of office; and Liberal Soviet Union. It is not suffi- tegration than are the Conservatives, Democrat hopes of a realignment fade ciently known that, according to tailor the state to civil but that is because it is out of office. In away. As in the first scenario, but with a to Sakharov's Memoirs, his smaller spasm of pain, Britain edges 'Big Bomb', tested in 1961, society' government, Labour ministers would be was 'several thousand times as reluctant as Conservative ones to closer to the rapidly federalising Euro- more powerful than the bomb give up the delights of Westminster pean heartland. Pressure from the dropped on Hiroshima'. Sakha- absolutism in the short term - and as Scots ensures that the government hon- rov does not exaggerate. subject, over the long term, to the magne- ours its commitment to a crypto- There were at least 50 of tic pull of the European heartland. federalist constitution. Once again, the these bombs produced during trajectories of state and civil society the first year (1961-2). 38 he territorial constitution is a were displayed in Cuba, (even different matter. The Thames move closer together - in a slightly though 'we hadn't had time to Valley option would destroy more stirring way than in the first sce- deliver all our shipments to any hope of a majority Lab- nario, perhaps, but only slightly. Cuba', as Khruschev writes); Tour government at Westminster. The The third scenario is that of the long- assuming Sakharov's 'several' crypto-federalist option, on the other awaited, long-postponed realignment. It to be at least equal to three, hand, would make power at West- comes about in one of several possible there were at least the equiva- ways: perhaps through a fourth Labour lent of 114,000 Hiroshima minster less of a prize in any event; and bombs in Cuba - fortunately it would also create powerful state or defeat; perhaps through a hung parlia- not yet quite ready for firing. regional governments in the areas ment; perhaps because a majority Lab- ('The liquidation of the capital- where Labour's strength is concen- our government splits under the pres- ist system is the crucial ques- trated. In short, the Conservatives, the sure of adverse circumstances. But the tion in the development of so- historic party of the union, have most to mechanism scarcely matters. The im- ciety' - Khruschev Remem- gain from ending it. Labour, for most of portant point is that the scattered heirs bers.) Since then, with a yearly of the pre-1914 Liberal coalition come production of at least SO Sakha- its history a bastion of Fabian central- rov bombs, about 1,400 will ism, has most to gain from the old together again, around a programme of have been produced. Of those, Liberal policy of home rule all round. constitutional reform explicitly de- 1,100 have been admitted to The Liberal Democrats add a further signed to address the crisis of maladap- exist, equivalent to at least irony to the tale. They are the only tation which has been neglected for so 3.3m Hiroshima bombs. They United Kingdom party to recognise the long. For the growing reform consti- constitute the most urgent contradiction between state and civil tuency mobilised by Charter 88 and 'challenge'. revealed by last summer's Mori poll on Karl Popper society, and to propose a new constitu- tional settlement to resolve it. A key the state of the nation, this is, of course, element in their programme is a funda- by far the best option. Not the least of It is quite likely that our little mental reconstruction of the territorial the ironies in the current state of Brit- island will have some trouble constitution on crypto-federalist lines. ish politics, however, is that even the surviving. And by our little is- In a central aspect of the central issue inferior scenarios I discussed a moment land I don't mean England, I of the time, in other words, they and the ago lead, in the end, to a similar destina- mean the island of the rich. So tion. The choice for the British state is it seems to me that the victory Labour Party are on the same side. But over communism is a Pyrrhic they also look forward to a realignment between a slow, furtive sidle into the victory, a phoney victory. of the Left and believe - rightly or 21st century and a confident canter. The disintegration and the wrongly - that one of its preconditions One way or the other, it will get there in increasing misery all over the is another Labour defeat. So they are the end.' world will not just simply stop torn, their constitutional project pulling at our borders. We have the first indications now, in the them in one direction, and their political 1. Ghita Ionescu, Leadership In An Interdependent project in another. World, The Statesmanship Of Adenauer, De Gaulle, shape of immigration, break- Thatcher, Reagan And Gorbachev, Longman, 1991 up, civil war, strife, boat Three broad scenarios emerge from people - this is just a portent • all this speculation. The first - it might David Marquand is professor of politics be called the Japanese scenario - is one at Sheffield University

42 MARXISM TODAY DECEMBER 1991