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REPORT 1300 Pennsylvania Ave., NW ISSUE 11 2005 Washington, DC 20004 Tel E C S P R E P O R T I S S U E 1 1 2 0 0 5 This publication is made possible through support provided by the Office of Population, U.S. Agency for International Development, and the University of Michigan, under the terms of Grant No. HRN-A-00-00-00001. The opinions expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the U.S. Agency for International The University of Michigan Development, the University of Michigan, or the Woodrow Wilson Center. Population Fellows Programs ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE AND SECURITY PROGRAM Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars REPORT 1300 Pennsylvania Ave., NW ISSUE 11 2005 Washington, DC 20004 Tel. (202) 691-4185 Population and Conflict: Exploring Fax (202) 691-4001 the Links [email protected] www.wilsoncenter.org/ecsp Nepal: Environmental Stress, Demographic Change, and the Maoists Population-Environment Funding: A Place for the Demographic Case U.S. Military: Environmental Security in the Gulf Preview: Parks for Peace or Peace for Parks? ISBN: 0-9745919-2-0 Reviews: New Publications WOODROW WILSON INTERNATIONAL CENTER FOR SCHOLARS Lee H. Hamilton, President and Director Board of Trustees Joseph B. Gildenhorn, Chair David A. Metzner, Vice Chair Public Members: James H. Billington, Librarian of Congress; John W. Carlin, Archivist of the United States; Bruce Cole, Chair, National Endowment for the Humanities; Michael O. Leavitt, Secretary, U.S. Department of Health and Human Services; Tamala L. Longaberger, designated appointee within the Federal Government; Condoleezza Rice, Secretary, U.S. Department of State; Lawrence M. Small, Secretary, Smithsonian Institution; Margaret Spellings, Secretary, U.S. Department of Education Private Citizen Members: Carol Cartwright, Robert B. Cook, Donald E. Garcia, Bruce S. Gelb, Charles L. Glazer, Sander Gerber, Ignacio E. Sanchez About the Center The Center is the living memorial of the United States of America to the nation’s twenty-eighth president, Woodrow Wilson. Congress established the Woodrow Wilson Center in 1968 as an international institute for advanced study, “symbolizing and strengthening the fruitful relationship between the world of learning and the world of public affairs.” The Center opened in 1970 under its own board of trustees. Assistant Editor In all its activities the Woodrow Wilson Center is a nonprofit, nonpartisan organization, supported financially by Editor Alison Williams Advisory Committee annual appropriations from Congress, and by the contributions of foundations, corporations, and individuals. Geoffrey D. Dabelko Co-Chairs Conclusions or opinions expressed in Center publications and programs are those of the authors and speakers and do Contributing Editors Thomas E. Lovejoy, The Heinz not necessarily reflect the views of the Center staff, fellows, trustees, advisory groups, or any individuals or organiza- Managing Editor Nelia Forest Research Staff Center for Science, tions that provide financial support to the Center. Meaghan E. Parker Jennifer Wisnewski Katherine Carrus Economics and the Kaczor Crystal Chase Environment Cover Photos: An army soldier keeps vigil at the Indo-Pakistan border, Siachen © AFP/AFP/Getty Images; Production Editor Jennifer L. Turner Alicia Hope Herron P.J. Simmons, Rockefeller Cloudy sky in Myanmar, © 2005 Kyaw Winn, Courtesy of Photoshare; Sprawling Spruce Forest, © Royalty- Lianne Hepler Charlotte Youngblood Zachariah Zanek Brothers Fund Free/Corbis ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE AND SECURITY PROGRAM REPORT ISSUE 11 2005 Environmental Change and Security Program The Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars One Woodrow Wilson Plaza • 1300 Pennsylvania Avenue, NW Washington, DC 20004-3027 Tel: (202) 691-4185 • Fax: (202) 691-4001 [email protected] www.wilsoncenter.org/ecsp ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE AND SECURITY PROGRAM ince 1994, the Environmental Change and Security Program (ECSP) has promoted dialogue on the connections among environmental, health, and population dynamics and their links Sto conflict, human insecurity, and foreign policy. ECSP brings international policymakers, practitioners, and scholars to Washington, D.C., to address the public and fellow experts. The program distributes two annual journals, the Environmental Change and Security Program Report and the China Environment Series, to more than 7,000 people around the world. ECSP News, a monthly e-mail newsletter, links 3,000 subscribers to news, meeting summaries, and event announcements on the program’s comprehensive website, www.wilsoncenter.org/ecsp. ECSP also publishes Focus, a series of papers on population, environment, and security (previously named PECS News), as well as original research and occasional reports. ECSP’s core activities are made possible by the generous support of the U.S. Agency for International Development’s Office of Population and Reproductive Health through a cooperative agreement with the University of Michigan’s Population Fellows Programs. ECSP and its China Environment Forum also receive support from the Blue Moon Fund, Carnegie Corporation of New York, Japan Foundation’s Center for Global Partnership, Shell (China) Limited, Tamaki Foundation, the United Nations Environment Programme, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, the U.S. Department of Agriculture, and private individuals. ECSP is directed by Geoffrey D. Dabelko and is housed in the Woodrow Wilson Center’s Division of International Security Studies, headed by Robert S. Litwak. The Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars is the living, national memorial to President Wilson established by Congress in 1968 and headquartered in Washington, D.C. It is a nonpartisan institution, supported by public and private funds, engaged in the study of national and world affairs. The Wilson Center establishes and maintains a neutral forum for free, open, and informed dialogue. The Center commemorates the ideals and concerns of Woodrow Wilson by: providing a link between the world of ideas and the world of policy; and fostering research, study, discussion, and collaboration among a full spectrum of individuals concerned with policy and scholarship in national and world affairs. The Center is directed by the Honorable Lee H. Hamilton, and its Board of Directors is chaired by the Honorable Joseph B. Gildenhorn. Submissions and Correspondence The Environmental Change and Security Program Report is sent annually free of charge throughout the world. Contact ECSP at the address below to subscribe: Environmental Change and Security Program The Woodrow Wilson Center One Woodrow Wilson Plaza • 1300 Pennsylvania Avenue, NW Washington, DC 20004-3027 Tel: (202) 691-4185 • Fax: (202) 691-4001 [email protected] www.wilsoncenter.org/ecsp iii ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE AND SECURITY PROGRAM CONTENTS Foreword 1 Geoffrey D. Dabelko Population and Conflict: Exploring the Links 3 Introduction Geoffrey D. Dabelko 5 Defusing the Population Bomb: Is Security a Rationale for Reducing Global Population Growth? Henrik Urdal 12 The Young and the Restless: Population Age Structure and Civil War Sarah Staveteig 20 Missing Women and Bare Branches: Gender Balance and Conflict Valerie M. Hudson and Andrea M. den Boer 25 The State of the Field: Demography and War Monica Duffy Toft Special Reports 29 Environmental Stress and Demographic Change in Nepal: Underlying Conditions Contributing to a Decade of Insurgency Richard Matthew and Bishnu Raj Upreti 40 Speaking Truth to Silence: There’s Still a Place for the Demographic Case Robert Engelman 51 U.S. Military and Environmental Security in the Gulf Region Rear Admiral John F. Sigler, USN (Ret.) Parks for Peace or Peace for Parks? Issues in Practice and Policy A Forthcoming Publication From ECSP 58 Introduction 59 Conservation and Conflict Resolution: Crossing the Policy Frontier Saleem H. Ali iv ECSP REPORT • ISSUE 11 • 2005 61 Trade-offs Among Multiple Goals for Transboundary Conservation Trevor Sandwith and Charles Besançon 63 Peace Parks in the Cordillera del Cóndor Mountain Range and Biodiversity Conservation Corridor Martín Alcalde, Carlos F. Ponce, and Yanitza Curonisy 65 Peace Parks in Southern Africa Larry A. Swatuk 67 Global Politics and Peace Parks Rosaleen Duffy Reviews of New Publications 70 Bare Branches: The Security Implications of Asia’s Surplus Male Population By Valerie M. Hudson and Andrea M. den Boer Reviewed by Richard Cincotta 74 Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed By Jared Diamond Reviewed by Kenneth C. Brill 77 From Conflict to Sustainable Development: Assessment and Clean-up in Serbia and Montenegro (Final Report) and Desk Study on the Environment in Liberia By the United Nations Environment Programme Reviewed by Gregory D. Foster 81 Global Crises, Global Solutions By Bjørn Lomborg (Ed.) Reviewed by Robert Costanza 84 Global Population Policy: From Population Control to Reproductive Rights By Paige Whaley Eager Reviewed by Duff Gillespie 86 Governing Water: Contentious Transnational Politics and Global Institution Building By Ken Conca Reviewed by Anthony Turton 91 HIV and National Security: Where Are the Links? By Laurie Garrett Reviewed by Jennifer Wisnewski Kaczor 92 Dams and Development: Transnational Struggles for Water and Power By Sanjeev Khagram Identity, Conflict and Cooperation in International River Systems By Jack Kalpakian Reviewed by Anton Earle v CONTENTS 96 Journal of Peace Research: Special Issue on the Demography of Conflict and Violence By Henrik Urdal and Helge Brunborg (Eds.) Reviewed by Christian Leuprecht 98 The Party’s Over: Oil,
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