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Part II – Reservoir Operations Assessment for Reclamation Tributary Basins

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Part II – Reservoir Operations Assessment for Reclamation Tributary Basins Climate and Hydrology Datasets for Use in the RMJOC Agencies’ Longer-Term Planning Studies: Part II – Reservoir Operations Assessment for Reclamation Tributary Basins U.S. Department of the Interior Bureau of Reclamation Pacific Northwest Region Boise, Idaho January 2011 U.S. Department of the Interior Mission Statement The mission of the Department of the Interior is to protect and provide access to our Nation's natural and cultural heritage and honor our trust responsibilities to Tribes and our commitments to island communities. Mission of the Bureau of Reclamation The mission of the Bureau of Reclamation is to manage, develop, and protect water and related resources in an environmentally and economically sound manner in the interest of the American public. Photographs on front cover from left to right: Arrowrock Reservoir, Boise River, Idaho; Payette River, Idaho; Yakima Valley, Washington. Climate and Hydrology Datasets for Use in the RMJOC Agencies’ Longer-Term Planning Studies: Part II – Reservoir Operations Assessment for Reclamation Tributary Basins Regional Resource & Technical Services River & Reservoir Operations Report prepared by Toni Turner Pacific Northwest Regional Office, Boise, Idaho And Levi Brekke Technical Service Center, Denver, Colorado U.S. Department of the Interior Bureau of Reclamation Pacific Northwest Region Boise, Idaho January 2011 Acknowledgements: RMJOC Sponsors: • Patrick McGrane, Bureau of Reclamation, Pacific Northwest Region • Rick Pendergrass, Bonneville Power Administration • Jim Barton, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Northwestern Division RMJOC Agencies’ Comments and Contributions from: • Bureau of Reclamation, Pacific Northwest Region: Patrick McGrane, Chris Lynch, Jennifer Johnson, Sharon Parkinson, Bob Lounsbury, Ted Day, Carol Kjar, and Lori Postlethwait • Bonneville Power Administration: Rick Pendergrass, Brian Kuepper, Nancy Stephan • U.S. Army Corps of Engineers: Jim Barton, Seshagirir Vaddey, Peter Brooks, Malar Annamalai, Keith Duffy, Joel Fenolio, Patricia Low, Kristian Mickelson, John McCoskery, William Proctor, and Randal Wortman Additional Comments and Contributions from: • Northwest Power and Conservation Council • Columbia River Inter Tribal Fish Commission • BC-Hydro • U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service • NOAA Fisheries Service • University of Washington Climate Impacts Group • Oregon Climate Change Research Institute . Abbreviations and Acronyms BC Bias-corrected BCSD Bias-Correction Spatial Disaggregation BiOp Biological opinion BPA Bonneville Power Administration C Central change scenario C° degrees Celsius cfs cubic feet per second CROO Reclamation Hydromet site for the Crooked River below Opal Springs near Culver, Oregon CSRO USGS gage location on the Crooked River below Opal Springs near Culver, Oregon CULO Reclamation Hydromet site for the Deschutes River near CROO near Culver, Oregon DCCO USGS gage location on the Deschutes River above Lake Billy Chinook at near Culver, Oregon DPL Daily proration level DPM Deschutes Planning Model ENSO El Nino Southern Oscillation ESA Endangered Species Act F° degrees Fahrenheit GCM General Circulation Model HB 2860 Washington State House Bill No. 2860 HD Hybrid-Delta KAF Thousand acre-feet LW/D Less warming and drier LW/W Less warming and wetter LW/W Less warming and wetter MAF Million acre-feet MC Minimal change MW/D More warming and drier MW/W More warming and wetter NOAA Fisheries National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Fisheries Service Service NRNI No regulation, no irrigation O&M Operation and maintenance PARW Reclamation Hydromet site identification of the Yakima River near Parker PRVO The average Bowman Dam release Reclamation U.S. Department of the Interior, Bureau of Reclamation RMJOC Reservoir Management Joint Operating Committee SPM Snake Planning Model SWE Snow water equivalent TWSA Total water supply available USACE U.S. Army Corps of Engineers USGS U.S. Geological Survey UW CIG University of Washington Climate Impacts Group VIC Variable Infiltration Capacity model VIC BC Variable Infiltration Capacity model, bias-corrected WY Water year YAPAR NRNI site identification for the Yakima River near Parker YPM Yakima Planning Model Table of Contents Executive Summary ................................................................................................................ xiii 1.0 Introduction ........................................................................................................ 1 2.0 Description of Reservoir Operations by River Subbasin ................................... 4 2.1 Yakima River Subbasin ...................................................................................... 5 2.2 Deschutes River Subbasin .................................................................................. 9 2.3 Snake River Subbasin above Brownlee Reservoir ........................................... 11 2.3.1 Snake River Subbasin .......................................................................... 11 2.3.2 Boise-Payette River Subbasin .............................................................. 12 2.3.3 Southeast Oregon ................................................................................. 14 3.0 Description of Operations Simulation Models and Inputs Adjusted for RMJOC Climate and Hydrology Scenarios ................................................ 16 3.1 Yakima River Subbasin .................................................................................... 16 3.1.1 Yakima Planning Model (RiverWare Application) ............................. 16 3.1.2 Inflow Hydrology ................................................................................. 16 3.1.3 Water Supply Forecasts ....................................................................... 19 3.1.4 ENSO Classifications ........................................................................... 20 3.2 Deschutes River Subbasin ................................................................................ 21 3.2.1 Deschutes Planning Model (MODSIM Application) .......................... 21 3.2.2 Inflow Hydrology ................................................................................. 22 3.2.2.1 Naturalized Flow Hydrology ................................................. 22 3.2.2.2 Modified Flow Hydrology..................................................... 26 3.2.2.2.1 Reclamation Modified Flow Model ..................................................... 26 3.2.2.3 Methods and Adjustments ..................................................... 27 3.2.2.3.1 Methods ................................................................................................ 27 3.2.2.3.2 Adjustments ......................................................................................... 27 3.2.3 Water Supply Forecasts ....................................................................... 28 3.3 Snake River Subbasin above Brownlee Reservoir ........................................... 29 3.3.1 Snake Planning Model (MODSIM Application) ................................. 29 3.3.2 Inflow Hydrology ................................................................................. 30 3.3.2.1 Naturalized Flow Hydrology ................................................. 30 3.3.2.2 Modified Flow Hydrology..................................................... 32 January 2011 – Part II: Reservoir Operations Assessment i 3.3.2.3 Methods and Adjustments ..................................................... 33 3.3.3 Water Supply Forecasts ....................................................................... 33 4.0 Results .............................................................................................................. 34 4.1 Yakima River Subbasin .................................................................................... 36 4.1.1 Typical Conditions under Hybrid-Delta Climates ............................... 37 4.1.2 Variability under Hybrid-Delta Climates ............................................ 52 4.1.3 Effect of Analytical Design Choices on Simulated Operations ............................................................................................ 60 4.1.3.1 Type of Water Supply Forecasting: Perfect versus Imperfect .............................................................................................. 60 4.1.3.2 Type of Future Climate Scenario: Hybrid-Delta (HD) versus Transient .......................................................................... 70 4.1.4 Summary .............................................................................................. 79 4.2 Deschutes River Subbasin ................................................................................ 81 4.2.1 Metrics ................................................................................................. 82 4.2.1.1 Naturalized Model ................................................................. 82 4.2.1.2 Modified Flow Model ........................................................... 82 4.2.1.2.1 Inflow to the Deschutes River System ................................................. 83 4.2.1.2.2 End-of-Month Storage at Major Reservoirs ........................................ 85 4.2.1.2.3 Flow at Key Locations in the River Subbasin ..................................... 85 4.2.1.2.4 Surface Water Delivered ...................................................................... 85 4.2.1.2.5 ESA Environmental Objectives ........................................................... 87 4.2.2 Results .................................................................................................
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