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The Costs of Adaptation to Climate Change in Canada: a Stratified Estimate by Sectors and Regions

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The Costs of Adaptation to Climate Change in Canada: a Stratified Estimate by Sectors and Regions See discussions, stats, and author profiles for this publication at: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/228805202 The Costs of Adaptation to Climate Change in Canada: A stratified estimate by sectors and regions Article · May 2001 CITATIONS READS 18 166 4 authors, including: Mohammed Dore Ian Burton Brock University University of Toronto 99 PUBLICATIONS 773 CITATIONS 149 PUBLICATIONS 8,341 CITATIONS SEE PROFILE SEE PROFILE Some of the authors of this publication are also working on these related projects: SCOPE Environmental Risk Assessment View project Tracking Adaptation and Measuring Development (TAMD) framework View project All content following this page was uploaded by Mohammed Dore on 21 May 2014. The user has requested enhancement of the downloaded file. The Costs of Adaptation to Climate Change in Canada: A Stratified Estimate by Sectors and Regions Social Infrastructure By Mohammed H.I. Dore Brock University and Ian Burton A.I.R.G., Environment Canada April 17, 2001 Mohammed Dore, D.Phil. (Oxon) Climate Change Laboratory Taro Hall, Room 442 Brock University St Catharines, ON Canada L2S 3A1 Tel. (905) 688 5550, ext 4755 Email: [email protected] This research was financed by a grant from the Canadian Climate Change Action Fund under grant No. A209. However, the opinions expressed are those of the authors alone. The Costs of Adaptation to Climate Change in Canada: A Stratified Estimate by Sectors and Regions Social Infrastructure Table of Contents Preface............................................................................................................................... 11 Executive Summary.......................................................................................................... 12 Progress to Date on the Estimation of Adaptation Costs............................................... 12 Detailed Executive Summary ........................................................................................ 12 Chapter 1: Data Collection Protocol................................................................................. 20 1.1: Introduction ............................................................................................................ 20 Figure 1.1.1: Ecoclimatic Provinces of Canada and Projected Shifts Under a Scenario of Doubled Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide..................................................................... 24 1.2: Anticipated Effects of Climate Change.................................................................. 28 1.3: Methodology .......................................................................................................... 29 1.3.1: Definitions of Sectors of the Economy ............................................................ 29 1.3.2: Sampling Structure........................................................................................... 32 1.3.3: Spatial Methods................................................................................................ 32 1.3.4: Quantitative Estimation Methods..................................................................... 33 1.3.5: Base Maps ........................................................................................................ 34 Figure 1.3.1: CGCM1 Grid Boxes Overlaid on Census Subdivisions .......................... 35 1.3.6: Codes and Standards ........................................................................................ 36 1.3.7: Climate Change Factors ................................................................................... 37 1.3.8: Statistics Canada Census 1996......................................................................... 40 1.3.9: Municipal Financial Information ..................................................................... 40 1.3.10: Historical Climate Information ...................................................................... 42 1.4: Directions for Future Research............................................................................... 42 1.4.1: Climate Data..................................................................................................... 43 1.4.2: Census Subdivision Data ................................................................................. 43 1.4.3: Government Financial Data ............................................................................. 43 1.4.3.1: Municipal Financial Information............................................................... 44 1.4.3.2: Provincial Financial Information............................................................... 44 1.4.3.3: Federal Financial Information ................................................................... 45 1.4.3.4: Other Government Agencies ..................................................................... 45 1.4.4: Other Data Sources .......................................................................................... 45 1.5: Summary ................................................................................................................ 46 Chapter 2: Climate Change Projections............................................................................ 48 2.1: Downscaling Experiment with SDSM ................................................................... 48 1 Table 2.1.1: from SDSM: Daily Precipitation Data for Toronto, 1981-1990 ............... 49 Table 2.1.2: Testing the Toronto Data........................................................................... 51 Table 2.1.3: SDSM Summary Statistics using GCM Independent Variables ............... 52 Table 2.1.4: Summary Statistics for the Projected Precipitation for Toronto, 2050s.... 53 2.2: Proportional Downscaling...................................................................................... 55 2.3: Understanding Climate Change.............................................................................. 57 Figure 2.3.1: Fitted Values With 95% Confidence Intervals for ARIMA (1,0,0) Model ....................................................................................................................................... 59 2.4: Summary and Directions For Future Research ...................................................... 60 References: .................................................................................................................... 62 Chapter 3: The Theory Of The Optimal Production Of Public Goods And Its Application To Social Infrastructure .................................................................................................... 63 3.1 The Optimal Quantity of a Public Good.................................................................. 65 3.2 The Changing Nature of a Public Good .................................................................. 67 3.3 Climate Change and Social Infrastructure............................................................... 71 3.4 Summary and Directions for Future Research ........................................................ 73 References: .................................................................................................................... 75 Chapter 4: Roads and Bridges in Canada ......................................................................... 76 4.1: Introduction ............................................................................................................ 76 4.2: Basic Climate Information ..................................................................................... 79 4.3: Roads, Bridges and Storm Water Management Jurisdiction in Canada................. 79 Table 4.3.1: Road Jurisdiction in Canada (2-lane equivalent) ...................................... 81 Table 4.3.2: Bridge Jurisdiction in Canada* ................................................................. 82 4.4: Roads, Bridges and Storm Water Management System Design Codes and Standards ....................................................................................................................... 83 4.4.1: Roads................................................................................................................ 85 Table 4.4.3: Road Type Distribution in Canada (1995) ................................................ 86 4.4.1.1: Alberta ....................................................................................................... 86 Table 4.4.4: Road Type Distribution in Alberta (1995) ................................................ 87 4.4.1.2: British Columbia........................................................................................ 87 Table 4.4.5: Road Type Distribution in British Columbia (1995)................................. 87 4.3.1.3 Manitoba ..................................................................................................... 88 Table 4.4.6: Road Type Distribution in Manitoba (1995)............................................. 88 4.4.1.4: New Brunswick.......................................................................................... 88 Table 4.4.7: Road Type Distribution in New Brunswick (1995) .................................. 89 4.4.1.5: Newfoundland............................................................................................ 89 Table 4.4.8: Road Type Distribution in Newfoundland (1995) .................................... 89 4.4.1.6: Nova Scotia................................................................................................ 89 Table 4.4.9: Road Type Distribution in Nova Scotia (1995)......................................... 90 4.4.1.7:
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