VALANDRAUD - COMTE VOGUE CHAMBOLLE MUSIGNY - LUNE ARGENT - GRAND PUY LACOSTE - ECHO LYNCH BAGES - DRC ROMANEE CONTI - GUIGAL COTE ROTIE LANDONNE - RUINART DOM RUINART GIACOMO CONTERNO BAROLO CASCINA FRANCIA - RIOJA ALTA RIOJA GRAN RESERVA 904 - DUHART - COMTES LAFON MEURSAULT GOUTTE D'OR - LEOVILLE LAS CASES - CANON GAFFELIERE CANTEMERLE MILON - CECILIA BERETTA VALPOLICELLA CLASSICO SUPERIORE TERRE DI CARIANO - CHAPOUTIER CHAPELLE AUSONE - DRC ECHEZEAUX - FLEUR PETRUS GRUAUD LAROSE - BRANE CANTENAC - ERMITAGE MEAL - GUIGAL COTE ROTIE TURQUE - JOSEPH FAIVELEY MAZIS CHAMBERTIN - LEOVILLE CHAPELLE MISSION - CLINET - DRAGON QUINTUS - ORMES PEZ - OPUS ONE - DOMAINE LEFLAIVE BARTON - TORBRECK RUN RIG - GUSBOURNE BLANC DE BLANCS - PONSOT CHAPELLE CHAMBERTIN CHEVALIER MONTRACHET - LASCOMBES - DUJAC CLOS ROCHE - TERTRE ROTEBOEUF - BOLLINGER VV - DRC RICHEBOURG - LYNCH BAGES - BOUTISSE - DUCRU BEAUCAILLOU - MEYNEY - PETIT MOUTON FRANCAISES - PAGODES COS - RONAN BY CLINET - MISSION HAUT BRION - CHENADE - GAJA COSTA - DOMAINE LEFLAIVE BATARD MONTRACHET - TROTTEVIEILLE - PELICAN ARBOIS SAVAGNIN OUILLE RUSSI - FOURRIER GEVREY CHAMBERTIN CLOS ST JACQUES - LOUIS ROEDERER CRISTAL ROSE - - MIRAVAL COTES DE PROVENCE ROUGE - BEAUSEJOUR DUFFAU - PONSOT CLOS ROCHE VV DOMINUS - CHAPOUTIER ERMITAGE BLANC OREE - PAUL JABOULET AINE HERMITAGE CHAPELLE - - SASSICAIA - LAMBRAYS CLOS LAMBRAYS - POUJEAUX - DOMAINE LEFLAIVE BIENVENUES BATARD FELTON ROAD RIESLING DRY - CANON (SAINT EMILION) - CLARENCE HAUT BRION - FELTON ROAD MONTRACHET - LATOUR - ARMAND ROUSSEAU CHARMES CHAMBERTIN - MOET & CHANDON PINOT NOIR BLOCK 5 - SMITH HAUT LAFITTE - COS D'ESTOURNEL - LEOVILLE POYFERRE - PINGUS DOM PERIGNON - DOMAINE LEROY CLOS VOUGEOT - BAHANS HAUT BRION - BENJAMIN HENRI JAYER NUITS SAINT GEORGES MURGERS - GEORGES ROUMIER CHAMBOLLE MUSIGNY LEROUX PULIGNY MONTRACHET CHAMP GAIN - MASSETO - MICHEL OGIER COTE ROTIE CRAS - RAUZAN SEGLA - BRUNO GIACOSA BAROLO FALLETTO - DUJAC ECHEZEAUX - - GAJA SORI SAN LORENZO - GAZIN (POMEROL) - TUA RITA REDIGAFFI - LAVILLE HAUT DOMAINE JEAN-LOUIS CHAVE HERMITAGE BLANC - CARRUADES LAFITE - VIEUX CHATEAU BRION - FARGUES - BIONDI SANTI BRUNELLO MONTALCINO RISERVA - SAINTAYME CERTAN - LAFLEUR - JACQUES FREDERIC MUGNIER CHAMBOLLE MUSIGNY - PENFOLDS GRANGE - GEORGES NOELLAT NUITS SAINT GEORGES CRAS - HARLAN AMOUREUSES - PALMER - CHEVAL BLANC - ARROSEE - JOSEPH DROUHIN BONNES PROPRIETARY RED - FELTON ROAD RIESLING BLOCK 1 - JOSEPH FAIVELEY MARES - BOLLINGER RD - JACQUES FREDERIC MUGNIER MUSIGNY - VOUGERAIE CHAMBERTIN CLOS DE BEZE - ARLOT ROMANEE SAINT VIVANT - CLOS ST JEAN BONNES MARES - LOUIS ROEDERER CRISTAL - TALBOT - PETIT VILLAGE - GUIGAL CHATEAUNEUF DU PAPE DEUS EX MACHINA - EVANGILE - PONSOT GRIOTTE COTE ROTIE MOULINE - JOSEPH DROUHIN MUSIGNY - HAUT BATAILLEY - CHAMBERTIN - CLOS PAPES CHATEAUNEUF DU PAPE - BEYCHEVELLE - CLOS ARMAND ROUSSEAU CHAMBERTIN - CHAPOUTIER ERMITAGE PAVILLON - FOURTET - TAITTINGER COMTES CHAMPAGNE - FELTON ROAD PINOT NOIR AUSONE - ROCHE BELLENE CLOS ROCHE - PICHON LALANDE - FRATELLI CORNISH POINT - DOMAINE LEROY CORTON CHARLEMAGNE - FELTON ROAD ALESSANDRIA BAROLO GRAMOLERE - PEDESCLAUX - BRANCAIA BLU - PINOT NOIR CALVERT - JOSEPH DROUHIN GRIOTTE CHAMBERTIN - KRUG BRUNO GIACOSA BARBARESCO ASILI - CROIX BEAUCAILLOU - DOME - VINTAGE BRUT - MOET & CHANDON DOM PERIGNON ROSE - TIGNANELLO COMTE VOGUE CHAMBOLLE MUSIGNY 1ER CRU - HAUT BRION - - BASSERMANN JORDAN JESUITENGARTEN GROSSES GEWACHS - PICHON SCREAMING EAGLE - TAITTINGER COMTES CHAMPAGNE ROSE - DOMAINE BARON - MALARTIC LAGRAVIERE - DOMAINE LEROY VOSNE ROMANEE LEROY NUITS SAINT GEORGES BOUDOTS - DOMAINE JEAN-LOUIS CHAVE BEAUMONTS - ECHO LYNCH BAGES - DRC ROMANEE CONTI - GUIGAL HERMITAGE - CLOS MARQUIS - FREDERIC MAGNIEN GEVREY COTE ROTIE LANDONNE - RUINART DOM RUINART - COMTES LAFON CHAMBERTIN CAZETIERS - POL ROGER SIR WINSTON CHURCHILL - PAVIE MEURSAULT GOUTTE D'OR - LEOVILLE LAS CASES - CANON GAFFELIERE MACQUIN - LAFITE ROTHSCHILD - SOLAIA - BEAUCASTEL CHATEAUNEUF - CANTEMERLE - CHAPELLE AUSONE - DRC ECHEZEAUX - FLEUR PETRUS DU PAPE - QUINAULT L'ENCLOS - MOUTON ROTHSCHILD - SUDUIRAUT - - GRUAUD LAROSE - BRANE CANTENAC - CHAPELLE MISSION - CLINET MALARTIC LAGRAVIERE BLANC - GAJA BARBARESCO - PHILIPPONNAT - DRAGON QUINTUS - ORMES PEZ - OPUS ONE - DOMAINE LEFLAIVE CLOS GOISSES BRUT - ANGELUS - DOMAINE CHEVALIER - CHEVALIER MONTRACHET - LASCOMBES - DUJAC CLOS ROCHE MONTLANDRIE - COMTES LAFON MEURSAULT CHARMES - SALON - TERTRE ROTEBOEUF - BOLLINGER VV FRANCAISES - PAGODES COS MESNIL - PETRUS - CONSEILLANTE - HENSCHKE HILL OF GRACE SHIRAZ - RONAN BY CLINET - MISSION HAUT BRION - CHENADE - GAJA COSTA - SAN GIUSTO PERCARLO - PONTET CANET - FELTON ROAD PINOT NOIR RUSSI - FOURRIER GEVREY CHAMBERTIN CLOS ST JACQUES - LOUIS BANNOCKBURN - MONTROSE - PIN - BRUNO GIACOSA BAROLO ROEDERER CRISTAL ROSE - DOMINUS - CHAPOUTIER ERMITAGE BLANC ROCCHE FALLETTO - GIACOMO CONTERNO BAROLO RISERVA OREE - PAUL JABOULET AINE HERMITAGE CHAPELLE - FELTON ROAD MONFORTINO - PEBY FAUGERES - CHAPOUTIER ERMITAGE BLANC RIESLING DRY - CANON (SAINT EMILION) - CLARENCE HAUT BRION ERMITE - PAVIE - CLARENDON HILLS ASTRALIS SHIRAZ - CASANOVA DI - FELTON ROAD PINOT NOIR BLOCK 5 - SMITH HAUT LAFITTE - COS NERI BRUNELLO MONTALCINO TENUTA NUOVA SAINT PIERRE - VEGA D'ESTOURNEL - LEOVILLE POYFERRE - PINGUS - HENRI JAYER NUITS SICILIA UNICO - MARGAUX - TORTOCHOT CHAMBERTIN - BOLLINGER SAINT GEORGES MURGERS - GEORGES ROUMIER CHAMBOLLE GRANDE ANNEE - COUTET (BARSAC) - ARMAND ROUSSEAU GEVREY MUSIGNY CRAS - RAUZAN SEGLA - BRUNO GIACOSA BAROLO CHAMBERTIN CLOS ST JACQUES - CLERC MILON - CHAPOUTIER FALLETTO - DUJAC ECHEZEAUX - DOMAINE JEAN-LOUIS CHAVE ERMITAGE ERMITE - HOSANNA - HAUT BAILLY - COLGIN IX PROPIETARY HERMITAGE BLANC - CARRUADES LAFITE - VIEUX CHATEAU CERTAN RED - GAJA SPERSS - DRC TACHE - COMTE VOGUE CHAMBOLLE - LAFLEUR - JACQUES FREDERIC MUGNIER CHAMBOLLE MUSIGNY MUSIGNY AMOUREUSES - TRAPET PERE ET FILS LATRICIERES AMOUREUSES - PALMER - CHEVAL BLANC - ARROSEE - JOSEPH CHAMBERTIN - BEAUCASTEL CHATEAUNEUF DU PAPE HOMMAGE J DROUHIN BONNES MARES - BOLLINGER RD - JACQUES FREDERIC PERRIN - JOSEPH PHELPS INSIGNIA - PONSOT CLOS VOUGEOT - BIONDI MUGNIER MUSIGNY - VOUGERAIE BONNES MARES - LOUIS ROEDERER SANTI BRUNELLO MONTALCINO - EMMANUEL ROUGET VOSNE CRISTAL - TALBOT - PETIT VILLAGE - GUIGAL COTE ROTIE MOULINE ROMANEE CROS PARANTOUX - PETIT CHEVAL - PONSOT CLOS - JOSEPH DROUHIN MUSIGNY - HAUT BATAILLEY - ARMAND ROUSSEAU VOUGEOT VV - EGLISE CLINET - FORTS LATOUR - RIEUSSEC - CALON CHAMBERTIN - CHAPOUTIER ERMITAGE PAVILLON - AUSONE - ROCHE SEGUR - GEORGES ROUMIER BONNES MARES - DUJAC CLOS SAINT BELLENE CLOS ROCHE - PICHON LALANDE - FRATELLI ALESSANDRIA DENIS - FIGEAC - YQUEM - HENRI JAYER VOSNE ROMANEE - RESERVE BAROLO GRAMOLERE - PEDESCLAUX - BRANCAIA BLU - BRUNO COMTESSE - TRAPET PERE ET FILS CHAMBERTIN - SCARECROW GIACOSA BARBARESCO ASILI - CROIX BEAUCAILLOU - DOME - COMTE CABERNET SAUVIGNON - CRUZELLES - MONDOTTE - BRANAIRE DUCRU VOGUE CHAMBOLLE MUSIGNY 1ER CRU - HAUT BRION - SCREAMING ROTHSCHILD & CONCHA Y TORO ALMAVIVA - COMTE VOGUE BONNES EAGLE - TAITTINGER COMTES CHAMPAGNE ROSE - DOMAINE LEROY QUARTER THREE MARES - TROTANOY - GAY - JANASSE CHATEAUNEUF DU PAPE VV - NUITS SAINT GEORGES BOUDOTS - DOMAINE JEAN-LOUIS CHAVE PEGAU CHATEAUNEUF DU PAPE LAURENCE - JEAN-JACQUES HERMITAGE - CLOS MARQUIS - FREDERIC MAGNIEN GEVREY CONFURON ROMANEE SAINT VIVANT - CLIMENS - ORNELLAIA - CHAMBERTIN CAZETIERS - POL ROGER SIR WINSTON CHURCHILL DOMAINE LEROY NUITS SAINT GEORGES LAVIERES - PAPE CLEMENT - - PAVIE MACQUIN - LAFITE ROTHSCHILD - SOLAIA - BEAUCASTEL INVESTMENT BERNARD DUGAT-PY CHAMBERTIN - FOURRIER GRIOTTE CHAMBERTIN CHATEAUNEUF DU PAPE - QUINAULT L'ENCLOS - MOUTON VV - BONNEAU MARTRAY CORTON CHARLEMAGNE - COMTE VOGUE ROTHSCHILD - SUDUIRAUT - MALARTIC LAGRAVIERE BLANC - GAJA MUSIGNY VV - PETER SISSECK (ALNARDO) PSI - DOMAINE LEROY BARBARESCO - PHILIPPONNAT CLOS GOISSES BRUT - ANGELUS VOLNAY SANTENOTS - GIACOMO CONTERNO BAROLO CERRETA - - DOMAINE CHEVALIER - MONTLANDRIE - COMTES LAFON MEURSAULT OVERVIEW PAVILLON ROUGE - TROPLONG MONDOT - JEAN NOEL GAGNARD CHARMES - SALON MESNIL - PETRUS - CONSEILLANTE - HENSCHKE HILL CHASSAGNE MONTRACHET BOUDRIOTTE ROUGEVALANDRAUD - OF GRACE SHIRAZ - SAN GIUSTO PERCARLO - PONTET CANET - FELTON COMTE VOGUE CHAMBOLLE MUSIGNY - LUNE ARGENT - GRAND PUY ROAD PINOT NOIR BANNOCKBURN - MONTROSE - PIN - BRUNO 2020 LACOSTE - GIACOMO CONTERNO BAROLO CASCINA FRANCIA - RIOJA GIACOSA BAROLO ROCCHE FALLETTO - GIACOMO CONTERNO ALTA RIOJA GRAN RESERVA 904 - DUHART MILON - CECILIA BERETTA BAROLO RISERVA MONFORTINO - PEBY FAUGERES - CHAPOUTIER VALPOLICELLA CLASSICO SUPERIORE TERRE DI CARIANO - ERMITAGE BLANC ERMITE - PAVIE - CLARENDON HILLS ASTRALIS CHAPOUTIER ERMITAGE MEAL - GUIGAL COTE ROTIE TURQUE - JOSEPH SHIRAZ - CASANOVA DI NERI BRUNELLO MONTALCINO TENUTA NUOVA FAIVELEY MAZIS CHAMBERTIN - LEOVILLE BARTON - TORBRECK RUN - SAINT PIERRE - VEGA SICILIA UNICO - MARGAUX - TORTOCHOT RIG - GUSBOURNE BLANC DE BLANCS - PONSOT CHAPELLE CHAMBERTIN - BOLLINGER GRANDE ANNEE - COUTET (BARSAC) CHAMBERTIN - DRC RICHEBOURG - LYNCH BAGES - BOUTISSE - DUCRU - ARMAND ROUSSEAU GEVREY CHAMBERTIN CLOS ST JACQUES BEAUCAILLOU - MEYNEY - PETIT MOUTON - DOMAINE LEFLAIVE - CLERC MILON - CHAPOUTIER ERMITAGE ERMITE - HOSANNA - HAUT BATARD MONTRACHET - TROTTEVIEILLE - PELICAN ARBOIS SAVAGNIN BAILLY - COLGIN IX PROPIETARY RED - GAJA SPERSS - DRC TACHE OUILLE - MIRAVAL COTES DE PROVENCE ROUGE - BEAUSEJOUR - COMTE VOGUE CHAMBOLLE MUSIGNY AMOUREUSES - TRAPET PERE DUFFAU - PONSOT CLOS ROCHE VV - SASSICAIA - LAMBRAYS CLOS ET FILS LATRICIERES CHAMBERTIN - BEAUCASTEL CHATEAUNEUF DU LAMBRAYS - POUJEAUX - DOMAINE LEFLAIVE BIENVENUES BATARD PAPE HOMMAGE J PERRIN - JOSEPH PHELPS INSIGNIA - PONSOT CLOS MONTRACHET - LATOUR - ARMAND ROUSSEAU CHARMES VOUGEOT - BIONDI SANTI BRUNELLO MONTALCINO - EMMANUEL CHAMBERTIN - MOET & CHANDON DOM PERIGNON - DOMAINE LEROY ROUGET VOSNE ROMANEE CROS PARANTOUX - PETIT CHEVAL CLOS VOUGEOT - BAHANS HAUT BRION - BENJAMIN LEROUX PULIGNY - PONSOT CLOS VOUGEOT VV - EGLISE CLINET - FORTS LATOUR MONTRACHET CHAMP GAIN - MASSETO - MICHEL OGIER COTE ROTIE - - RIEUSSEC - CALON SEGUR - GEORGES ROUMIER BONNES MARES GAJA SORI SAN LORENZO - GAZIN (POMEROL) - TUA RITA REDIGAFFI - - DUJAC CLOS SAINT DENIS - FIGEAC - YQUEM - HENRI JAYER VOSNE LAVILLE HAUT BRION - FARGUES - BIONDI SANTI BRUNELLO ROMANEE - RESERVE COMTESSE - TRAPET PERE ET FILS CHAMBERTIN MONTALCINO RISERVA - SAINTAYME - PENFOLDS GRANGE - GEORGES - SCARECROW CABERNET SAUVIGNON - CRUZELLES - MONDOTTE NOELLAT NUITS SAINT GEORGES CRAS - HARLAN PROPRIETARY RED - - BRANAIRE DUCRU - ROTHSCHILD & CONCHA Y TORO ALMAVIVA FELTON ROAD RIESLING BLOCK 1 - JOSEPH FAIVELEY CHAMBERTIN - COMTE VOGUE BONNES MARES - TROTANOY - GAY - JANASSE CLOS DE BEZE - ARLOT ROMANEE SAINT VIVANT - CLOS ST JEAN CHATEAUNEUF DU PAPE VV - PEGAU CHATEAUNEUF DU PAPE CHATEAUNEUF DU PAPE DEUS EX MACHINA - EVANGILE - PONSOT LAURENCE - JEAN-JACQUES CONFURON ROMANEE SAINT VIVANT GRIOTTE CHAMBERTIN - CLOS PAPES CHATEAUNEUF DU PAPE - - CLIMENS - ORNELLAIA - DOMAINE LEROY NUITS SAINT GEORGES BEYCHEVELLE - CLOS FOURTET - TAITTINGER COMTES CHAMPAGNE - LAVIERES - PAPE CLEMENT - BERNARD DUGAT-PY CHAMBERTIN FELTON ROAD PINOT NOIR CORNISH POINT - DOMAINE LEROY CORTON - FOURRIER GRIOTTE CHAMBERTIN VV - BONNEAU MARTRAY CORTON CHARLEMAGNE - FELTON ROAD PINOT NOIR CALVERT - JOSEPH CHARLEMAGNE - COMTE VOGUE MUSIGNY VV - PETER SISSECK DROUHIN GRIOTTE CHAMBERTIN - KRUG VINTAGE BRUT - MOET & (ALNARDO) PSI - DOMAINE LEROY VOLNAY SANTENOTS - GIACOMO CHANDON DOM PERIGNON ROSE - TIGNANELLO - BASSERMANN CONTERNO BAROLO CERRETA - PAVILLON ROUGE - TROPLONG JORDAN JESUITENGARTEN GROSSES GEWACHS - PICHON BARON - MONDOT - JEAN NOEL GAGNARD CHASSAGNE MONTRACHET MALARTIC LAGRAVIERE - DOMAINE LEROY VOSNE ROMANEE BOUDRIOTTE ROUGEVALANDRAUD - COMTE VOGUE CHAMBOLLE WWW.WINEINVESTMENT.COM BEAUMONTS - ECHO LYNCH BAGES - DRC ROMANEE CONTI - GUIGAL MUSIGNY - LUNE ARGENT - GRAND PUY LACOSTE - GIACOMO COTE ROTIE LANDONNE - RUINART DOM RUINART - COMTES LAFON CONTERNO BAROLO CASCINA FRANCIA - RIOJA ALTA RIOJA GRAN MEURSAULT GOUTTE D'OR - LEOVILLE LAS CASES - CANON GAFFELIERE RESERVA 904 - DUHART MILON - CECILIA BERETTA VALPOLICELLA CANTEMERLE - CHAPELLE AUSONE - DRC ECHEZEAUX - FLEUR PETRUS CLASSICO SUPERIORE TERRE DI CARIANO - CHAPOUTIER ERMITAGE - GRUAUD LAROSE - BRANE CANTENAC - CHAPELLE MISSION - CLINET -
Introduction
Introduction
Portfolio based investment grade wine is one of the most established alternative assets available to investors looking for tax- efficient, asset backed diversification and capital growth opportunities. Over 13 years, Cult Wines has become the global leader in wine asset management, providing analytically based, fine wine investment advice. Combining our experience in the fine wine market, statistical and quantitative research and algorithm based modelling, our unique approach has driven our Assets Under Management (AUM) to over £150 million. Our own CW index returned +124.89% since October 2009 (annualised returns of +7.71%). With low interest rates, inflation concerns, low returns from traditional financial assets and an uncertain economic outlook, many investors are looking at ways to enhance their portfolio returns, diversify exposure and generate consistent capital appreciation.
This Third Quarter overview summarises the global financial and fine wine market performances to June 2020.
Cult Wines Index Performance 240.00
2 0.00
220.00
210.00
200.00
190.00
1 0.00
170.00
1 0.00
150.00
140.00
1 0.00
120.00
110.00
100.00
90.00 2010 2011 2012 201 2014 2015 201 2017 201 2019 2020
Cult Wines Index Period From Period Until Total Performance CAGR Q3 2020 30/06/20 30/09/20 1.12% - 2020 YTD 31/12/19 30/09/20 1.57% - 1 Year 31/12/18 31/12/19 -0.98% - 3 Years 31/12/16 31/12/19 16.17% 5.13% 5 Years 31/12/14 31/12/19 46.67% 7.96% All Time 31/10/09 30/09/20 124.89% 7.71%
3 +44 (0)207 1000 950 | wineinvestment.com Introduction
Amber Lion Partners
Amber Lion Partners AG is a Zurich-based regulated Multi Family Office. It was founded in 2019 by former veteran bankers who decided to leave old banking models, and consolidate the best customer experience and value proposition they accumulated over the last 25 years.
The company provides Asset Management services and investment products across asset classes (dynamic fixed-income, option trading strategies, small cap equity in the High Tech sector), Global Credit Advisory (real estate, marine, aviation), and Venture Capital opportunities.
Our key focus: performance, agility, independence, alignment of interests and transparency.
4 +44 (0)207 1000 950 | wineinvestment.com Global Markets Review
Global Markets Overview In partnership with Amber Lion Partners
Q3 was a good quarter for equities. The main indices continued their FTSE 100 rebound and reached new highs. Some markets at the end of Q3 were 110.00 even higher than before the sell-off in February and March.
105.00 110.00
100.00 US markets did very well, especially compared to Europe and Japan. The 105.00 110.00 main driver was certainly coming from the very accommodative monetary 95.00 100.00 105.00 policy of central banks as well as a quicker recovery of the economy than 110.00 90.00 95.00 previously expected. 100.00 105.00
85.00 90.00 30/06/20 31/07/20 31/08/20 30/09/20 95.00 However, at the end of Q3, markets started to correct as it was clear that 100.00 85.00 90.00 30/06/20 31/07/20 31/08/20 30/09/20 the economic recovery would take longer. Covid19 cases around the 95.00 115.00 world started to rise again and in addition investors got concerned about DOW85.0 JONES0 90.00 30/06/20 31/07/20 31/08/20 30/09/20 the US election. This led to a wide-market correction at the beginning of 110.0115.00
85.00 September. The MSCI World gained 8% in the third quarter. Still a very 30/06/20 31/07/20 31/08/20 30/09/20 115.00 good result but definitely weaker, momentum compared to the previous 105.0110.00
115.00 quarter. 100.0105.0110.00
110.00 100.0105.095.00 United States 30/06/20 31/07/20 31/08/20 30/09/20
100.0105.095.00 30/06/20 31/07/20 31/08/20 30/09/20 In the US the tech rally continued to make investors happy. As a direct 115.00
100.095.00 30/06/20 31/07/20 31/08/20 30/09/20 result of the Covid-19 pandemic, many companies in the technology 110.00 115.00 space continued to profit and expanded their revenues. Within the S&P 105.00 HANG95.00 SENG 110.00 30/06/20 31/07/20 31/08/20 30/09/20 115.00 500 index, the tech sector has gained weight. Apple has now a 7% weight 100.00 105.00 in the index. Many investors have become concerned about the high 110.00 95.00 115.00 valuation of equities, and while it is true that the Price/Earnings ratio 100.00 105.00 90.00 110.00 has increased to 25 on the S&P 500 we think that in a low-growth world, 95.00 100.00 85.00 105.00 30/06/20 31/07/20 31/08/20 30/09/20 higher valuations can be better explained. An alternative way of looking 90.00 95.00
100.00 at valuation is the so-called Fed Model, which compares the equity 85.00 30/06/20 31/07/20 31/08/20 30/09/20 90.00 115.00 earnings yield against the US 10-year Treasury yield. On this basis, equity 95.00
85.00 30/06/20 31/07/20 31/08/20 30/09/20 valuations look fair. 90.00 110.0115.00
85.00 30/06/20 31/07/20 31/08/20 30/09/20 105.0110.0115.00 Europe GOLD 115.00 100.0105.0110.00 In Europe there has been less enthusiasm in the 3rd quarter compared to
110.00 100.0105.095.00 the US. Markets have traded sideways with the STOXX Europe 600 only 30/06/20 31/07/20 31/08/20 30/09/20 gaining ca. 0.5% during that period. In the Eurozone there is less optimism 100.0105.095.00 and conviction regarding the economic recovery, and this can be seen in 30/06/20 31/07/20 31/08/20 30/09/20 the PMIs for both regions. The composite PMI for the US shows a value of 100.095.00 30/06/20 31/07/20 31/08/20 30/09/20 54.4 against 50.1 for Europe. In UK, the central bank kept interest rates
95.00 at record low levels and the Bank of England signalled that it would start 30/06/20 31/07/20 31/08/20 30/09/20 looking at how to make negative rates operational. Source: Bloomberg.
5 +44 (0)207 1000 950 | wineinvestment.com Market Outlook
Emerging Markets
Emerging markets benefited from the weakened dollar. The MSCI Emerging Markets index increased by 8% in Q3. Generally speaking, Asian countries have managed the Covid-19 crisis much better than western countries, and life in China has returned almost to normality.
Commodities
Gold had an impressive rally of 16% and peaked at USD 2,063. This move was too strong to be sustainable. From the beginning of August until the end of September, the metal lost around 8%. Nevertheless, we believe the environment to go long Gold is supportive, as the precious metal benefits from very low interest rates, expansive monetary policy from central banks and continued uncertainties.
Market Outlook In partnership with Amber Lion Partners
Markets are clearly focused on the US Election. This will be the big event in Q4 that could trigger higher volatility. Most polls in the US show Joe Biden holding a 7% lead over Donald Trump and we might even see a democratic sweep with the Democratic Party taking control over Senate and keeping the majority in the House of Representatives.
While clearly this would be bad news for corporate taxes (Biden wants to increase from 21% to 28%), we think that with regard to the trade war with China a certain de-escalation can be expected. Given that polls are pointing towards a Biden victory, markets seem to be concerned about the risk of Trump questioning the results and taking legal action against them. This is a scenario, in our view, can be clearly observed in the implied volatility of options of the VIX Index, often referred to as the Fear Index. The historical average level of the Index is around 15 but currently trading at levels of 25, pointing towards higher expected future volatility.
6 +44 (0)207 1000 950 | wineinvestment.com Market Outlook