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El Gran Cáucaso 156 EL GRAN CÁUCASO INSTITUTO ESPAÑOL DE ESTUDIOS ESTRATÉGICOS MINISTERIO DE DEFENSA CUADERNOS de ESTRATEGIA 156 INSTITUTO ESPAÑOL DE ESTUDIOS ESTRATÉGICOS EL GRAN CÁUCASO Junio 2012 CATÁLOGO GENERAL DE PUBLICACIONES OFICIALES http://www.publicacionesoficiales.boe.es/ MINISTERIO SECRETARÍA DE DEFENSA GENERAL TÉCNICA NIPO: 083-12-119-0 (edicion en papel) NIPO: 083-12-120-3 (edición en línea) ISBN: 978-84-9781-749-3 NIPO: 083-12-118-5 (libro-e) Depósito Legal: M-20159-2012 ISBN: 978-84-9781-750-9 (libro-e) Imprime: Imprenta del Ministerio de Defensa Tirada: 500 ejemplares Fecha de edición: junio 2012 Los derechos de explotación de esta obra están amparados por la Ley de Propiedad Intelectual. Ninguna de las partes de la misma puede ser reproducida, almacenada ni transmitida en ninguna forma ni por medio algu- no, electrónico, mecánico o de grabación, incluido fotocopias, o por cualquier otra forma, sin permiso previo, expreso y por escrito de los titulares del © Copyright. En esta edición se ha utilizado papel libre de cloro obtenido a partir de bosques gestionados de forma sostenible certificada. MINISTERIO INSTITUTO ESPAÑOL DE DE DEFENSA ESTUDIOS ESTRATÉGICOS Grupo de Trabajo número 05/2011 EL GRAN CÁUCASO Las ideas contenidas en este trabajo son de responsabilidad de sus autores, sin que reflejen, necesariamente, el pensamiento del IEEE, que patrocina su publicación SUMARIO INTRODUCCIÓN Por Darío Valcárcel Lezcano Capítulo I UNA APROXIMACIÓN GEOPOLÍTICA AL CÁUCASO Por Alexander Rusetsky Capítulo II LA UNIÓN EUROPEA EN EL CÁUCASO SUR Por Natalia Shapovalova Capítulo III EL PAPEL DE TURQUÍA COMO POTENCIA REGIONAL EN EL CÁUCASO Y EL MAR NEGRO Por Deniz Devrim Capítulo IV IRÁN, EL CÁUCASO Y LA SEGURIDAD DEL MAR CASPIO Por José Luis Calvo Albero 7 Capítulo V LA RUSIA CAUCÁSICA Y LA RELACIÓN DE LA FEDERACIÓN CON EL CÁUCASO SUR Por Francisco José Ruiz González Capítulo VI EL CORREDOR ENERGÉTICO DEL CÁUCASO SUR Y SUS IMPLICACIONES PARA EUROPA Por Gonzalo Escribano Francés COMPOSICIÓN DEL GRUPO DE TRABAJO ÍNDICE INTRODUCCIÓN EL GRAN CÁUCASO Darío Valcárcel Lezcano Darío Valcárcel Introducción ■ INTRODUCCIÓN Para quienes nos interesamos por ese espacio que ocupa el Cáucaso, resulta que es una enorme garganta que une y separa el mundo eslavo meridional del antiguo Imperio otomano, del ruso, de Persia y del Mediterráneo. Zona fronteriza, confluencia difícil de religiones, campo de batalla entre distintos niveles de civilización. No solo musulmanes y cristianos: el mundo de la ortodoxia cristiana está presente desde los tiempos de Miguel I Cerulario, siglo XI. El Cáucaso, además de campo de batalla, es zona de comercio, tierra de paso. De oleoductos y gasoductos, pero también de caravanas procedentes de China, India, Persia, Indochina y los árabes del sur, desde La Meca hasta Marruecos y el Sáhara atlántico. Y por Oriente, no solo la ruta de la seda, sino otras rutas: especias, piedras preciosas, pólvora, armas. No puede mirarse el Cáucaso sin percibir la presencia del cíclope, Rusia, cuya sombra se proyecta sobre la región, influida política y culturalmente por el gigante euroasiático. El influjo de las grandes potencias en los territorios o mares de su alrededor es una constante en la historia. Ejercida de forma natural desde los primeros imperios, constituye una base de su geopolítica. La seguridad y la prosperidad de un país buscan garantizarse con la presencia, directa o indirecta, en las tierras y mares próximos, por donde discurre el comercio, o por donde puede llegar la invasión. Rusia 11 no ha sido ajena a estos condicionantes, presentes ya en la creación del Rus de Kiev en el siglo X. Desarrollado en torno al año 900, a orillas del Dniéper, extendiéndose al norte de Ucrania, lo que hoy es Bielorrusia y el oeste de la federación de Rusia, entre Moscú y el Báltico. Nada de este reino en potencia llegaría a transformarse en algo parecido a un estado hasta las décadas finales del 1600. El mundo eslavo en creación no llegó a fraguar hasta entonces. Fue obra de enormes sacrificios y del esfuerzo de pueblos enteros: pero una figura, la de Pedro el Grande, es la que lo representó. Con un reinado de 43 años, Pedro I se distinguió sobre todo por la labor titánica que supuso la desecación de millares de hectáreas de terreno pantanoso sobre el que se levantó San Petersburgo, fundada en la raya misma de los siglos XVII y XVIII. Pero su obra peor conocida y más relevante fue la alianza con Prusia, Dinamarca, Polonia, Sajonia y Hannover, frente a Carlos XII, rey de Suecia. Tampoco este enfrentamiento es materia de nuestro estudio, pero debe ser siquiera señalado. Pedro obligó a trasformar el vestido de los rusos, desde el Ural a la frontera polaca, forzándoles a adoptar una apariencia homologable con los occidentales. Naturalmente, su deseo no pudo cumplirse. Pero que un poder sagrado, el del zar, impusiera esos usos a sus súbditos fue un mensaje que todos, príncipes, burgueses y siervos, entendieron sin necesidad de repetición. Desde entonces, Rusia ha perseguido dos grandes objetivos, relacionados con su seguridad y prosperidad, en el Cáucaso y otras regiones de vecinas Darío Valcárcel Introducción o de su entorno. Primero, levantar un cordón sanitario que la aislara de potenciales enemigos terrestres. Segundo, conseguir una salida a los mares cálidos que la permitiese mantener abiertas las líneas comerciales los 12 meses del año. Estos objetivos han articulado la acción política y militar de los rusos desde finales del siglo XVII. Trescientos años después, estos dos objetivos se han redefinido en función del entorno y las nuevas condiciones en materia de seguridad y economía. El petróleo y el gas han tomado el relevo a los océanos cálidos en la estrategia rusa, y la presencia física en los estados tampón ya no es indispensable. Ahora la influencia se ejerce con medios económicos y políticos más sutiles. Así, el Cáucaso, sin dejar de notar la importancia que tiene para Rusia por su vecindad con Turquía o Irán, enemigos históricos, ha ganado importancia al convertirse en una encrucijada de oleoductos y gasoductos que permite utilizar la energía como elemento de presión en Europa y Asia. Georgia constituyó para Rusia, durante décadas, una “marca” con la que mantener las distancias con enemigos seculares como turcos y persas. Los casos de Armenia y Azerbaiyán, y su conflicto sobre Nagorno Karabaj, presentan los mismos rasgos de lucha fronteriza. Y por debajo de todos ellos, movimientos migratorios forzados durante el Imperio y, sobre todo, durante la época soviética, formando un mosaico 12 étnico que cobra a veces una inextricable complejidad. Georgia, país clave en este mosaico racial y cultural que es el Cáucaso, donde la coexistencia de una mayoría georgiana y de minorías osetia, abjasa y abjaria en un mismo territorio, contribuye en gran medida a la inestabilidad de la zona. De los dos objetivos constantes de la geoestrategia rusa, la defensa de su inmenso territorio y el acceso a mares cálidos, Georgia participa en ambos. Incluso el nuevo pilar sobre el que se asienta la influencia geopolítica rusa, el gas y el petróleo, juegan su papel en este país trascaucásico situado entre Europa y Asia, de 70.000 kilómetros cuadrados –algo menor que La Mancha– y poco más de cuatro millones y medio de habitantes. Su situación en la desembocadura natural de uno de los más importantes pasos del Cáucaso, al que sirve de centinela, su importancia como país ribereño del mar Negro –a recordar el inestable estatus de Sebastopol como base de la flota rusa– y su condición de paso casi obligado para la salida del petróleo del mar Caspio hacia el oeste, convierten a Georgia en un país de creciente interés geoestratégico para Rusia. Tiflis abolió en 1992 la Constitución de la República Socialista Soviética de Georgia y restauró la Carta de 1921 de la antigua República. Para los abjasios esto anulaba su autonomía, por lo que declararon su independencia seis meses después. El presidente georgiano, Eduard Shevardnadze, Darío Valcárcel Introducción anteriormente ministro de Relaciones Exteriores de Mijail Gorbachov, acusó a Rusia de llevar a cabo una guerra no declarada contra Georgia. En los enfrentamientos sucedidos en torno a 1992 jugaron un papel principal el millar largo de combatientes de musulmanes llegados de Cáucaso Norte, que desde Abjasia lucharon con sus hermanos de sangre circasianos contra los georgianos. Shevardnadze mostró una vez y otra sus capacidades diplomáticas; pero no pudo evitar que le desplazara de la presidencia Mijail Saakashvili, un joven prometedor alzado con la victoria en las elecciones de enero de 2004. Poco después de llegar a la jefatura del Estado, Saakashvili se refirió a la necesidad de mantener una buena relación con Rusia, aunque él se sintiera alineado con los occidentales. El intento de Saakashvili, ocho meses después, en el verano del 2004, de recuperar el control de la capital de Osetia del Sur, Tsinkivali, rompió lo que rusos y georgianos habían avanzado en su colaboración y proyectó una mala imagen de Saakashvili en el Kremlin. En todo caso, hasta 2008 la Federación de Rusia había considerado oficialmente a Abjasia y Osetia del Sur como territorios de soberanía georgiana, a pesar de las tensiones que han presidido las relaciones entre los dos países desde la desaparición de la URSS. Sin embargo, la acción 13 militar de Tiflisi contra Osetia del Sur la noche del 7 de agosto de ese año, que causó la muerte de varios soldados rusos de la fuerza de interposición, convirtió a Rusia de mediadora en participante en el conflicto, ya que una falta de reacción ante el ataque podría percibirse en el Cáucaso Norte como una señal de debilidad que fortaleciese a los extremistas. Tras el incidente, se produjo un breve enfrentamiento, de cinco días, entre Rusia y Georgia.
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