Issue 57 March 3-7, 2008 Economic Research & Analysis Department

LEBANON THIS WEEK

In This Issue Charts of the Week

Economic Risk Ratings for MENA Countries (year-end 2007) Economic Indicators...... 1

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48 47.5 47 46.5 46.5 46.5 46.5 Capital Markets...... 1 50 44 39.1 38.5 37.5 40 36 35.5 33.5 33.5 33 29 28.5 25.5 Lebanon in the News...... 2 30 Beirut ranks 83rd globally in property rentals, 62nd in roundtrip transaction 20 cost and 42nd in rental yield 10 Lebanese industrialists call for fair trade with Arab markets 0

Ad spending in Lebanon up 29% to UAE Iran Iraq $108m in 2007, TV gets 40% of total Libya Qatar Egypt Syria Kuwait Oman Jordan Sudan Yemen Bahrain AlgeriaMedian Tunisia Morocco Lebanon

Lebanon represented in Forbes maga- Saudi Arabia zine's list of world billionaires Economic Risk Ratings for Lebanon (year-end) 40 Corporate Highlights...... 4 Total non-life premiums post 8% rise to 35 $482.65m in 2007

Solidere's net profits down 22.4% to 30 29 $60.2m in first half of 2007 26 26 25.5 25.5 25 Global communications firm WPP acquires majority stake in THG Group 20

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Ratio Highlights...... 5 10 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Risk Outlook...... 5 Source: The PRS Group Quote to Note

Ratings & Outlook...... 5 “Typically this would be followed by a Standby Arrangement, but the current Lebanese political situation means that [authorities] can't sign onto one.”

Mohsin Khan, director of the IMF's Middle East and Central Asia department, on the expiration of the EPCA program and the obstacles towards moving to the next logical step. Number of the Week

$21bn: Aggregate fortune of 10 Lebanese billionaires included in the 2008 list of Forbes magazine’s wealthiest persons in the world. Economic Indicators

$m (unless otherwise mentioned) Dec.2006 2006 Oct.2007 Nov.2007 Dec.2007 2007 % Change* Exports 206 2,282 258 293 241 2,816 23.4% Imports 904 9,398 1,193 1,054 1,064 11,815 25.7% Trade Balance (698) (7,116) (935) (1,347) (237) (8,999) 26.4% Balance of Payments (169) 2,795 45 547 864 2,036 (27.15%) Checks Cleared in LBP 669 7,219 775 778 682 8,409 16.48% Checks Cleared in FC 2,106 25,268 2,879 2,902 2,769 29,883 18.26% Total Checks Cleared 2,775 32,487 3,654 3,680 3,451 38,292 17.87% Budget Deficit 457 3,039 263 314 154 2,545 (16.25%) Primary Balance (140) (17) 96 (30) 91 730 4,349.1% Airport Passengers 266,036 2,825,138 275,716 225,57 334,486 3,408,834 20.66%

$bn (unless otherwise mentioned) Dec.2005 Dec.2006 Sep.2007 Oct.2007 Nov.2007 Dec.2007 % Change* BdL FX Reserves 9.85 10.21 10.27 9.58 9.75 9.78 (4.21%) In months of Imports 11.3 11.30 10.90 8.03 9.25 9.19 (18.67%) Public Debt 38.50 40.37 40.57 41.16 41.84 42.06 4.19% Net Public Debt 34.79 37.44 38.28 38.68 38.71 39.06 4.33% Bank Assets 68.54 74.27 81.62 80.72 80.11 82.25 10.74% Bank Deposits 56.99 60.69 65.68 66.28 65.93 67.29 10.87% Bank Loans to Private Sector 14.46 15.31 17.23 17.32 17.65 17.75 15.94% Money Supply M2 16.23 15.57 16.60 16.53 16.27 16.42 5.46% Money Supply M3 49.38 53.23 58.27 58.88 58.75 59.83 12.40% LBP Lending Rate (%) 10.12 10.37 10.25 10.28 10.24 10.14 (23b.p.) LBP Deposit Rate (%) 7.70 7.49 7.47 7.46 7.42 7.40 (9b.p.) USD Lending Rate (%) 8.38 8.55 8.25 8.21 8.22 8.16 (39b.p.) USD Deposit Rate (%) 4.09 4.76 4.91 4.87 4.84 4.75 (1b.p.) %* Change in CPI** (2.23) 7.04 3.05 3.55 5.07 5.92 (112b.p.) * Year-on-Year; ** Consumer Price Index Note: b.p. i.e. basis point Sources: ABL, BdL Capital Markets

Most Traded Last Price % Change* Total Weight in Sovereign Coupon Mid Price Mid Yield Stocks on BSE ($) Volume Market Eurobonds % $ % Capitalization Solidere "A" 20.75 1.02% 185,583 19.66% Oct.2009 10.250 102.50 8.51 Solidere "B" 20.74 (0.62%) 44,362 12.77% Dec.2009 7.000 98.00 8.24 Byblos Common 2.17 (3.13%) 309,600 4.21% Mar.2010 7.125 98.00 8.24 Byblos Priority 2.22 (1.33%) 31,400 4.33% May 2011 7.875 98.00 8.60 BLOM GDR 89.00 1.14% 6,407 6.23% Sep.2012 7.750 96.75 8.64 BLOM Listed 81.55 0.00% 1,167 5.54% June 2013 8.625 99.50 8.74 Audi GDR 72.15 0.21% 6,290 6.72% Apr.2015 10.000 105.63 8.92 Audi Listed 70.00 0.00% 0 21.82% Jan.2016 8.500 97.00 9.04 HOLCIM 19.90 2.47% 1,354 3.68% May 2016 11.625 114.00 9.15 Apr.2021 8.250 93.00 9.18 Source: Beirut Stock Exchange (BSE); *Week-on-week Source: Byblos Capital Markets

This Week Last Week % Change February 2008 February 2007 % Change Total Shares Traded 626,470 535,067 17.08% 2,398,001 3,315,263 (27.67%) Total Value Traded $9,660,430 $8,625,434 12.00% $43,415,200 $56,573,571 (23.26%) Market Capitalization $10.55bn $10.54bn 0.09% $10.54bn $8.18bn 28.86% Source: Beirut Stock Exchange (BSE)

LEBANON THIS WEEK March 3-7, 2008 1 Lebanon in the News

Beirut ranks 83rd globally in property rentals, 62nd in roundtrip transaction cost and 42nd in rental yield The Global Property Guide's annual report on real estate investment trends around the world indicated that Lebanon ranked in 83rd place among 115 markets globally and in 6th place among 7 markets in the Middle East & North Africa region in terms of the Rent- per-Month of a 120 square meter apartment. Globally, Beirut came ahead of Bogota in Columbia, Lima in Peru and Dakar in Senegal, and came immediately behind San Jose in Costa Rica, Guatemala City in Guatemala and Roseau in Dominica. Beirut's rent-per-month was significantly lower than the regional average of $1,740.

The report offers the tools needed by foreign and non-resident investors to buy income-generating property overseas. It said only resale apartments and houses are included in the survey and excluded newly built and pre-sale property prices. The properties surveyed have to be in excellent condition, have good facilities, and have been refurbished or redecorated within the past five years. The valuation data is based on upscale apartments in prestigious areas that appeal to foreign investors or renters. It said that figures for Beirut cover the areas of Achrafieh, Beirut Central District, Hamra, Jnah, Ramlet El Baida, Ras Beirut and Verdun, and are for the period towards the end of 2007.

Lebanon ranked in 62nd place globally and 4th among 10 markets in the region in terms of Roundtrip Transaction Cost, which reflects all costs of buying and reselling a residential property, expressed as a percentage of the property value. Such costs include registration costs, real estate agents' fees, legal fees and sales and transfer taxes. Lebanon ranked ahead of the U.S. Virgin Island and Brazil and came immediately behind The Netherlands Antilles and Austria. Roundtrip transaction costs in Lebanon were higher than the region- al average of 9.03%.

Also, Lebanon ranked in 42nd place among 109 markets globally and 5th among 7 markets in the region in terms of Gross Rental Yield (GRY), which is the annual rent relative to the house price. The survey said the GRY is the return-on-investment before taxes, main- tenance fees and other costs, and is a key figure for investors. Globally, Lebanon ranked ahead of Gaboron in Botswana, Nairobi in Kenya and Port-Vila in Vanuatu, and came immediately behind Dakar in Senegal, Santiago in Chile and Brussels in Belgium. The sur- vey classified Lebanon's GRY in the 'good' category, along with 16 other markets around the world. Five out of 7 markets in the MENA region came in the same category.

Further, Lebanon ranked in 68th place among 115 markets globally and in third place in the MENA region in terms of the price of an apartment relative to its rent, or the Price-to-Rent ratio. This ratio reflects the years of rent that are required to buy an apartment of 120 square meters, and is typically used for measuring the undervaluation or overvaluation of real estate prices. Globally, Beirut tied with 12 cities such as Santiago, Dakar, Brussels, Istanbul, Bangkok, Mexico City and Shanghai. It came ahead of Budapest and Bucharest, and behind Nairobi and Prague. Lebanon's price-to-rent ratio was almost similar to the regional average of 12.9.

Roundtrip Gross Rental Price-to- Bying Price* Rent* City Cost (%) Yield (%) Rent ratio $US/sqm US$/month Amman 15.24 9.62 10 1,261 1,213 Beirut 11.57 7.46 13 1,237 1,154 Cairo 11.74 11.35 9 406 576 Dubai 5.05 7.72 13 4,066 3,140 Marrakech 12.00 7.66 13 1,973 1,511 Tunis 7.10 5.62 18 2,667 1,500 Tel Aviv 9.57 7.37 14 5,021 3,083 *120 sqm apartment Source: Global Property Guide, Byblos Research

Lebanese industrialists call for fair trade with Arab countries The Association of Lebanese Industrialists (ALI) addressed a memorandum to the League of Arab States concerning the difficulties of the industrial sector as a result of unfair competition from the region. The ALI also intends to sue the Lebanese government for failing to protect local manufacturers against unfair foreign competition. According to the ALI, the sector incurred heavy losses after the sig- nature of free trade agreements with Syria, Jordan, Egypt and other Arab countries that provide full support to their local industries and subsidize the cost of energy.

In its memorandum, the ALI proposed four solutions that correspond to the Arab free-trade agreements and the World Trade Organization (WTO) rules. It suggested stopping direct subsidies to manufacturing to allow more fair competition between Arab states, allowing Lebanon to impose a tax- within the WTO agreements- to counterbalance the impact of subsidies, creating a special fund to subsidize the cost of energy for non-oil producing countries that signed the Arab free-trade agreements, or compensating industries relying on energy and negatively affected by the import of subsidized products.

LEBANON THIS WEEK March 3-7, 2008 2 Lebanon in the News

Ad spending in Lebanon up 29% to $108m in 2007, TV gets 40% of total The annual survey of the advertising market in the Arab world by ArabAd Real advertising expenditures in Lebanon ($m) magazine and research firm IPSOS-STAT show that real advertising expen- 120 108 ditures in Lebanon totaled $108m in 2007, constituting and increase of 101 28.6% from $83m in 2006 and up by 7% from $101m in 2005. ArabAd said 95 100 82 84 the growth rate in 2007 was significant despite the fact that 2006 was a bad 80 year for the sector due to the war, adding that last year was one of the best for many agencies. Television attracted $43m, or 39.8%, of advertising 60 expenditures, followed by print publications with $36m (33.3%), outdoor 40 billboards with $20m (18.5%), radio with $7.5m (7%) and cinemas with 20 $1.5m (1.4%). In terms of advertising revenues, LBCI was the top television 0 station, Al Balad led all newspapers, Kamar was the top weekly publication, 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 and Mondanité was the leading monthly periodical.

Hygiene & beauty care was the top sector in term of advertising spending, followed by entertainment & leisure, banking & finance, foods, non-alcoholic drinks, clothing & accessories, media & publishing, automotive, servicing, and upkeep products. Transmed was the biggest individual spender on advertising in Lebanon, followed by Khalil Fattal & Fils, L'Oreal, SMLC, National Beverage Company, Obegi Consumer Products, BUMC, Zain, Libanaise des Jeux and BLOM Bank. Pepsi Cola was the top advertised brand in all media, followed by Coca Cola, Toyota, Pantene Pro-V, Zain, BLOM, Garnier, Pampers, Ariel and Head & Shoulders.

According to IPSOS-STAT, monitored advertising expenditures in Lebanon, which are determined according to rate cards, totaled $571.3m last year, up by 29% from $443m in 2006. Lebanon accounted for 6.6% of total monitored advertising expenditures in the Arab world. It ranked in 4th place behind Pan Arab TV satellites (42.5%), the Untied Arab Emirates (17%) and Saudi Arabia (12.4%).

Lebanon represented in Forbes magazine's list of world billionaires Forbes magazine's annual survey of the world's billionaires for 2008 included on its list 10 persons from Lebanon that included 6 mem- bers from the family of the late Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri, two members of the Mikati family, as well as cousins Said Khoury and Hasib Sabbagh. The survey ranked MP Saad Hariri in 334th place with an estimated fortune of $3.3bn, up from 407th place and $2.3bn in 2007, followed by his brother Bahaa Hariri in 349th place with a fortune of $3.2bn, up from 432nd place and $2.2bn last year. Forbes said the Hariri family's wealth is derived from investments in Saudi Arabia and many other countries in Europe, Africa and the Middle East in banking, real estate, tourism, telecommunications and media. Former Prime Minister Nagib Mikati and his brother Taha Mikati ranked in 446th place with a net worth of $2.6bn each, down from 407th place but up from $2.3bn each in 2007. The magazine said the Mikati brothers made their fortune in telecommunications and have vast holdings in the sector. Mr. Ayman Hariri and his brother Fahd Hariri came in 524th place with $2.3bn each, up from 618th place and $1.6bn each last year.

Further, Ms. Nazek Hariri, widow of the late PM Rafiq Hariri, ranked in 843rd place with a fortune of $1.4bn, up from 891st place and $1bn in 2007, while her daughter Hind Hariri came in 1014th place with a fortune of $1.1bn. This year's list included two newcomers from Lebanon who are the founders of the Consolidated Contractors Company (CCC), one of the largest construction firms in the Arab world. Mr. Said Khoury ranked in 962nd place with a net worth of $1.2bn and his cousin Hasib Sabbagh came in 1062nd place with $1bn. The wealthiest man in the Middle East is Saudi Prince al-Waleed bin-Talal who ranked in 19th place globally with $21bn and the richest man in the world is U.S. investor Warren Buffet with $62bn, replacing Bill Gates who lost the top spot for the first time in 13 years.

Billionaires of Lebanese descent on Forbes’ 2008 list of the world’s richest people Name Rank Worth ($bn) Trend Source Country Carlos Slim Helu 2 60.0 up Telecom Mexico Joseph Safra 101 8.8 up Banking Brazil Nicolas Hayek 296 3.6 up Manufacturing Switzerland Moise Safra 412 2.8 down Banking Brazil Isaac Saba Raffoul 573 2.1 up Investments Mexico Alfredo Harp Helu 743 1.6 unchanged Banking Mexico Joseph Jamail Jr. 785 1.5 unchanged Law USA Robert Naify 897 1.3 down Media USA Source: Forbes Magazine, Byblos Research

LEBANON THIS WEEK March 3-7, 2008 3 Corporate Highlights

Total non-life premiums post 8% rise to $482.65m in 2007 The annual survey by Al-Bayan magazine of the insurance sector in Non-Life Premiums of the Top 10 Insurers in 2007 ($m) Lebanon showed that total non-life premiums reached $482.65m in 2007, up 8% from $446.8m in 2006 and compared to a growth rate of MEDGULF 70.8 4.7% in 2006. MEDGULF maintained its first place with $70.8 million Bankers 48.5 in non-life premiums, followed by Bankers with $48.5m, AXA Middle AXA M iddle East 32.85 East with $32.85m, Allianz SNA with $39.9m, and Libano-Suisse with Allianz SNA 29.9 $29.5m as the top 5 non-life insurers. Mearco registered the highest Libano Suisse 29.5 jump in the rankings from last year, moving from 38th to 34th place Fidelity 21.35 and posted the highest growth in premiums among all insurers in the Cumberland 21.2 survey at 35.6% year-on-year. Byblos Bank's insurance affiliate ADIR Arope 20.8 registered a 22.4% rise in premiums, posting the biggest jump in non- ALICO 19.7 life premiums among insurers that are partly of fully-owned by banks. Libano-Arabe 19.1

0 20406080 There were 6 advances and 6 declines among the top 20 insurers, while the rankings of 8 insurers were unchanged. The top 10 insur- ers were unchanged from 2006, while nine of the top 10 posted increases in their premiums. Fidelity and ALICO recorded the biggest year-on-year rise at 15.7% and 15.1% respectively, while Cumberland's premiums were stagnant with a marginal 0.2% increase. There were 2 advances and 3 declines in the rankings of the top 10 firms. Fidelity gained 2 notches to rank in 6th place and ALICO rose by one spot to 9th place. Cumberland, AROPE and Libano-Arabe regressed by one spot each to 7th place, 9th place and 10th place, respec- tively. The top 10 insurers controlled 65% of the market in 2007 compared to 63.9% in 2006, while the top 20 insurers represented 80% of premiums compared to 84.2% in 2006. The aggregate non-life premiums of the top 10 insurers reached $313.7m in 2007 com- pared to $285.6m in 2006.

Solidere's net profits down 22.4% to $60.2m in first half of 2007 Solidere, the Lebanese Company for the Development of the Beirut Central District and Lebanon's largest firm in terms of market cap- italization, announced net profits of $60.2m in the first half of 2007, down 22.4% from $77.6m in the same period of the previous year and compared to profits of $132m in all of 2006. Net revenues from land and real estate sales fell by 28.6% to $60.8m and net rev- enues from rental properties rose 8.2% to $7.1m, resulting in total net operating revenues of $67.4m for the first half of the year, down 26.5% year-on-year. Gross revenues from land and real estate sales totaled $82.9m while those from real estate rentals totaled $10.3m. The real estate firm attributed the delay in releasing the figures to new developments such as the establishment of Solidere International in the United Arab Emirates with a paid-up capital of $700m. Solidere owns 37.2% of its UAE affiliate.

Solidere said its assets totaled $2.41bn and rose by 13% from end-2006, as inventory of land and projects in progress totaled $1.47bn at the end of June 2007. Bank loans totaled $37m at the end of June 2007, up 37% from the end of 2006, while bank overdrafts and short term facilities reached $228.3m compared to $48.4m at the end of 2006. Solidere's earnings per share were $0.3879 compared to $0.0.4871 a year earlier.

Global communications firm WPP acquires majority stake in THG Group WPP, one of the world's largest communications services groups, announced it has acquired a majority stake in Team Y&R Holdings, the holding company of the THG Group, a Beirut-based advertising and public relations firm. WPP already held a minority stake since 1999 in the group. THG has significant operations in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the UAE, Qatar, Oman, Lebanon, Morocco and Jordan and employs over 1,200 people. Its operating companies include Team Y&R, Asda'a, Intermarkets, Mediaedge:cia, Polaris and Wunderman. WPP said the investment is part of its strategy of developing its networks in fast growing markets and sectors. THG reported revenues of $100m in 2007, with gross assets of $242m. WPP's revenues rose by 13.6% to $12.4bn and headline profits were up 16.5% to $1.87bn last year. It employs 100,000 persons in 106 countries.

LEBANON THIS WEEK March 3-7, 2008 4 Ratio Highlights

2005 2006 2007 Change* Nominal GDP(1) ($bn) 21.5 22.7 24.6 External Debt / GDP 89.3 89.9 86.4 (350) Local Debt / GDP 89.8 88.1 84.6 (350) Total Debt / GDP 179.1 178.4 171.0 (740) Trade Balance / GDP (34.9) (31.3) (36.6) (530) Exports / Imports 20.1 24.3 23.8 (50) Revenues / GDP 22.8 19.4 23.6 420 Expenditures / GDP 31.6 30.8 33.9 310 Budget Balance / GDP (8.8) (11.5) (10.3) 120 Primary Balance / GDP 2.3 0.4 2.9 250 BdL FX Reserves / M2 60.7 65.6 59.6 (600) M3 / GDP 229.8 234.4 243.2 880 Bank Assets / GDP 318.8 327.2 334.4 720 Bank Deposits / GDP 265.1 267.4 273.5 610 Private Sector Loans / GDP 67.3 67.4 72.2 480 Dollarization of Deposits 73.1 76.2 77.3 110 Dollarization of Loans 84.5 84.0 84.3 30 * Change in basis points 06/07 (1) Based on Ministry of Finance Estimations Source: Byblos Research Calculations Note: M2 includes money in circulation and deposits in LBP, M3 includes M2 plus Deposits in FC and bonds

Risk Outlook Lebanon Dec.2006 Nov.2007 Dec.2007 Change* Risk Level Political Risk Rating 66.3 57.0 56.5 High Financial Risk Rating 31.5 31.5 31.5 Moderate Economic Risk Rating 25.5 29.0 29.0 High Composite Risk Rating 56.0 58.7 58.5 High

Regional Average Dec.2006 Nov.2007 Dec.2007 Change* Risk Level Political Risk Rating 66.3 67.3 65.6 Moderate Financial Risk Rating 41.5 41.8 41.3 Very Low Economic Risk Rating 41.3 40.4 40.0 Very Low Composite Risk Rating 74.6 74.8 73.5 Low *year-on-year Source: The PRS Group, Byblos Research Note: Political & Composite Risk Ratings range from 0 to 100 (where 100 indicates the lowest risk) Financial & Economic Risk ratings range from 0 to 50 (where 50 indicates the lowest risk)

Ratings & Outlook Sovereign Ratings Foreign Currency Local Currency LT ST Outlook LT ST Outlook Moody's B3 NP Negative Fitch B- B Stable B- S&P CCC+ C Stable CCC+ C Negative CI B- B Negative B- B Negative Source: Rating agencies

Banking Ratings Banks' Financial Strength Banking Sector Risk Outlook Moody's D- Stable EIU B Stable Source: Rating agencies

LEBANON THIS WEEK March 3-7, 2008 5 Economic Research & Analysis Department Byblos Bank Group P.O. Box 11-5605 Beirut – Lebanon Tel: (961) 1 338 100 Fax: (961) 1 217 774 E-mail: [email protected] www.byblosbank.com.lb

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LEBANON THIS WEEK March 3-7, 2008 6 BYBLOS BANK GROUP

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LEBANON THIS WEEK March 3-7, 2008 7