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Issue 57 March 3-7, 2008 Economic Research & Analysis Department LEBANON THIS WEEK In This Issue Charts of the Week Economic Risk Ratings for MENA Countries (year-end 2007) Economic Indicators....................1 60 48 47.5 47 46.5 46.5 46.5 46.5 Capital Markets...........................1 50 44 39.1 38.5 37.5 40 36 35.5 33.5 33.5 33 29 28.5 25.5 Lebanon in the News...................2 30 Beirut ranks 83rd globally in property rentals, 62nd in roundtrip transaction 20 cost and 42nd in rental yield 10 Lebanese industrialists call for fair trade with Arab markets 0 Ad spending in Lebanon up 29% to UAE Iran Iraq $108m in 2007, TV gets 40% of total Libya Qatar Egypt Syria Kuwait Oman Jordan Sudan Yemen Bahrain AlgeriaMedian Tunisia Morocco Lebanon Lebanon represented in Forbes maga- Saudi Arabia zine's list of world billionaires Economic Risk Ratings for Lebanon (year-end) 40 Corporate Highlights..................4 Total non-life premiums post 8% rise to 35 $482.65m in 2007 Solidere's net profits down 22.4% to 30 29 $60.2m in first half of 2007 26 26 25.5 25.5 25 Global communications firm WPP acquires majority stake in THG Group 20 15 Ratio Highlights...........................5 10 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Risk Outlook................................5 Source: The PRS Group Quote to Note Ratings & Outlook......................5 “Typically this would be followed by a Standby Arrangement, but the current Lebanese political situation means that [authorities] can't sign onto one.” Mohsin Khan, director of the IMF's Middle East and Central Asia department, on the expiration of the EPCA program and the obstacles towards moving to the next logical step. Number of the Week $21bn: Aggregate fortune of 10 Lebanese billionaires included in the 2008 list of Forbes magazine’s wealthiest persons in the world. Economic Indicators $m (unless otherwise mentioned) Dec.2006 2006 Oct.2007 Nov.2007 Dec.2007 2007 % Change* Exports 206 2,282 258 293 241 2,816 23.4% Imports 904 9,398 1,193 1,054 1,064 11,815 25.7% Trade Balance (698) (7,116) (935) (1,347) (237) (8,999) 26.4% Balance of Payments (169) 2,795 45 547 864 2,036 (27.15%) Checks Cleared in LBP 669 7,219 775 778 682 8,409 16.48% Checks Cleared in FC 2,106 25,268 2,879 2,902 2,769 29,883 18.26% Total Checks Cleared 2,775 32,487 3,654 3,680 3,451 38,292 17.87% Budget Deficit 457 3,039 263 314 154 2,545 (16.25%) Primary Balance (140) (17) 96 (30) 91 730 4,349.1% Airport Passengers 266,036 2,825,138 275,716 225,57 334,486 3,408,834 20.66% $bn (unless otherwise mentioned) Dec.2005 Dec.2006 Sep.2007 Oct.2007 Nov.2007 Dec.2007 % Change* BdL FX Reserves 9.85 10.21 10.27 9.58 9.75 9.78 (4.21%) In months of Imports 11.3 11.30 10.90 8.03 9.25 9.19 (18.67%) Public Debt 38.50 40.37 40.57 41.16 41.84 42.06 4.19% Net Public Debt 34.79 37.44 38.28 38.68 38.71 39.06 4.33% Bank Assets 68.54 74.27 81.62 80.72 80.11 82.25 10.74% Bank Deposits 56.99 60.69 65.68 66.28 65.93 67.29 10.87% Bank Loans to Private Sector 14.46 15.31 17.23 17.32 17.65 17.75 15.94% Money Supply M2 16.23 15.57 16.60 16.53 16.27 16.42 5.46% Money Supply M3 49.38 53.23 58.27 58.88 58.75 59.83 12.40% LBP Lending Rate (%) 10.12 10.37 10.25 10.28 10.24 10.14 (23b.p.) LBP Deposit Rate (%) 7.70 7.49 7.47 7.46 7.42 7.40 (9b.p.) USD Lending Rate (%) 8.38 8.55 8.25 8.21 8.22 8.16 (39b.p.) USD Deposit Rate (%) 4.09 4.76 4.91 4.87 4.84 4.75 (1b.p.) %* Change in CPI** (2.23) 7.04 3.05 3.55 5.07 5.92 (112b.p.) * Year-on-Year; ** Consumer Price Index Note: b.p. i.e. basis point Sources: ABL, BdL Capital Markets Most Traded Last Price % Change* Total Weight in Sovereign Coupon Mid Price Mid Yield Stocks on BSE ($) Volume Market Eurobonds % $ % Capitalization Solidere "A" 20.75 1.02% 185,583 19.66% Oct.2009 10.250 102.50 8.51 Solidere "B" 20.74 (0.62%) 44,362 12.77% Dec.2009 7.000 98.00 8.24 Byblos Common 2.17 (3.13%) 309,600 4.21% Mar.2010 7.125 98.00 8.24 Byblos Priority 2.22 (1.33%) 31,400 4.33% May 2011 7.875 98.00 8.60 BLOM GDR 89.00 1.14% 6,407 6.23% Sep.2012 7.750 96.75 8.64 BLOM Listed 81.55 0.00% 1,167 5.54% June 2013 8.625 99.50 8.74 Audi GDR 72.15 0.21% 6,290 6.72% Apr.2015 10.000 105.63 8.92 Audi Listed 70.00 0.00% 0 21.82% Jan.2016 8.500 97.00 9.04 HOLCIM 19.90 2.47% 1,354 3.68% May 2016 11.625 114.00 9.15 Apr.2021 8.250 93.00 9.18 Source: Beirut Stock Exchange (BSE); *Week-on-week Source: Byblos Capital Markets This Week Last Week % Change February 2008 February 2007 % Change Total Shares Traded 626,470 535,067 17.08% 2,398,001 3,315,263 (27.67%) Total Value Traded $9,660,430 $8,625,434 12.00% $43,415,200 $56,573,571 (23.26%) Market Capitalization $10.55bn $10.54bn 0.09% $10.54bn $8.18bn 28.86% Source: Beirut Stock Exchange (BSE) LEBANON THIS WEEK March 3-7, 2008 1 Lebanon in the News Beirut ranks 83rd globally in property rentals, 62nd in roundtrip transaction cost and 42nd in rental yield The Global Property Guide's annual report on real estate investment trends around the world indicated that Lebanon ranked in 83rd place among 115 markets globally and in 6th place among 7 markets in the Middle East & North Africa region in terms of the Rent- per-Month of a 120 square meter apartment. Globally, Beirut came ahead of Bogota in Columbia, Lima in Peru and Dakar in Senegal, and came immediately behind San Jose in Costa Rica, Guatemala City in Guatemala and Roseau in Dominica. Beirut's rent-per-month was significantly lower than the regional average of $1,740. The report offers the tools needed by foreign and non-resident investors to buy income-generating property overseas. It said only resale apartments and houses are included in the survey and excluded newly built and pre-sale property prices. The properties surveyed have to be in excellent condition, have good facilities, and have been refurbished or redecorated within the past five years. The valuation data is based on upscale apartments in prestigious areas that appeal to foreign investors or renters. It said that figures for Beirut cover the areas of Achrafieh, Beirut Central District, Hamra, Jnah, Ramlet El Baida, Ras Beirut and Verdun, and are for the period towards the end of 2007. Lebanon ranked in 62nd place globally and 4th among 10 markets in the region in terms of Roundtrip Transaction Cost, which reflects all costs of buying and reselling a residential property, expressed as a percentage of the property value. Such costs include registration costs, real estate agents' fees, legal fees and sales and transfer taxes. Lebanon ranked ahead of the U.S. Virgin Island and Brazil and came immediately behind The Netherlands Antilles and Austria. Roundtrip transaction costs in Lebanon were higher than the region- al average of 9.03%. Also, Lebanon ranked in 42nd place among 109 markets globally and 5th among 7 markets in the region in terms of Gross Rental Yield (GRY), which is the annual rent relative to the house price. The survey said the GRY is the return-on-investment before taxes, main- tenance fees and other costs, and is a key figure for investors. Globally, Lebanon ranked ahead of Gaboron in Botswana, Nairobi in Kenya and Port-Vila in Vanuatu, and came immediately behind Dakar in Senegal, Santiago in Chile and Brussels in Belgium. The sur- vey classified Lebanon's GRY in the 'good' category, along with 16 other markets around the world. Five out of 7 markets in the MENA region came in the same category. Further, Lebanon ranked in 68th place among 115 markets globally and in third place in the MENA region in terms of the price of an apartment relative to its rent, or the Price-to-Rent ratio. This ratio reflects the years of rent that are required to buy an apartment of 120 square meters, and is typically used for measuring the undervaluation or overvaluation of real estate prices. Globally, Beirut tied with 12 cities such as Santiago, Dakar, Brussels, Istanbul, Bangkok, Mexico City and Shanghai. It came ahead of Budapest and Bucharest, and behind Nairobi and Prague. Lebanon's price-to-rent ratio was almost similar to the regional average of 12.9. Roundtrip Gross Rental Price-to- Bying Price* Rent* City Cost (%) Yield (%) Rent ratio $US/sqm US$/month Amman 15.24 9.62 10 1,261 1,213 Beirut 11.57 7.46 13 1,237 1,154 Cairo 11.74 11.35 9 406 576 Dubai 5.05 7.72 13 4,066 3,140 Marrakech 12.00 7.66 13 1,973 1,511 Tunis 7.10 5.62 18 2,667 1,500 Tel Aviv 9.57 7.37 14 5,021 3,083 *120 sqm apartment Source: Global Property Guide, Byblos Research Lebanese industrialists call for fair trade with Arab countries The Association of Lebanese Industrialists (ALI) addressed a memorandum to the League of Arab States concerning the difficulties of the industrial sector as a result of unfair competition from the region.
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