Issue 107 March 9-13, 2009 Economic Research & Analysis Department LEBANON THIS WEEK MinisterIn of This Economy Issue reinstate Charts of the Week Economic Indicators....................1 Monetary Freedom Index in MENA Countries for 2009 80.0 80.0 80 78.6 78.4 Capital Markets...........................1 77.3 Lebanon in the News...................2 75 74.0 Lebanon ranks 128th globally, 17th in MENA region in credit ratings 71.7 71.4 Average Coincident Indicator rises by 70.3 69.8 10.2% in 2008 70 68.4 Launch of anti-corruption center 67.3 67.2 66.5 65.9 Beirut has 33rd highest office occupan- cy cost and 43rd most expensive retail 65 rent in the world UAE Oman Libya Qatar Syria Egypt Lebanon represented in Forbes maga- Jordan Algeria Tunisia Kuwait Yemen zine list of world billionaires Morocco Lebanon Bahrain Saudi Arabia Beirut Port launches $120m expansion Monetary Freedom Index in Lebanon plan 95 Activation of €45m Iranian loan to Lebanon 91.3 Economy Ministry signs MoU with Iran, 90 88.4 launches Lebanese Quality Management Model 85 83.5 Net public debt at $41.4bn at end- 82.9 January 2009 82.0 Airport passengers up 18.6% in first two 80 77.8 months of 2009 77.3 Most tourists spending in Lebanon in first two months of 2009 originated from 75 Saudi Arabia and the UAE 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009F International institutions to provide technical support for June elections Source: Heritage Foundation/Wall Street Journal, 2009 Quote to Note Corporate Highlights .................6 Commercial banks' assets reach $93.8bn at end-January 2009 “Prudent fiscal and monetary policies, ongoing vigilance in financial supervision, and proactive contingency planning should top the policy agenda.” Kafalat loan guarantees reach $17.1m in first two months of 2009 The International Monetary Fund, on the needed priorities of Lebanese author- SGBL’s profits at $44m in 2008 ities in view of the risks facing the domestic economy. Ratio Highlights.......................... 7 Risk Outlook................................7 Number of the Week Ratings & Outlook......................7 $2bn: Projected net foreign direct investment in Lebanon in 2009, according to the Institute of International Finance Economic Indicators $m (unless otherwise mentioned) Dec. 2007 2007 Oct. 2008 Nov. 2008 Dec. 2008 2008 % Change* Exports 241 2,816 254 330 250 3,478 23.51 Imports 1,064 11,815 1,490 1,664 1,135 16,133 36.55 Trade Balance (823) (8,999) (1,236) (1,334) (885) (12,655) 40.63 Balance of Payments 864 2,036 231 303 714 3,462 70.04 Checks Cleared in LBP 682 8,409 848 764 832 9,349 11.18 Checks Cleared in FC 2,769 29,892 3,936 3,548 3,181 43,162 44.39 Total Checks Cleared 3,451 38,301 4,784 4,312 4,013 52,511 37.10 Budget Deficit/Surplus (155) (2,546) (68) (511) (332) (2,921) 14.73 Primary Balance 92 731 297 (246) (49) 597 (18.33) Airport Passengers 334,486 3,408,834 351,753 299,175 419,329 4,085,334 19.85 $bn (unless otherwise mentioned) Dec. 2006 Dec. 2007 Sep. 2008 Oct. 2008 Nov. 2008 Dec. 2008 % Change* BdL FX Reserves 10.21 9.78 15.32 16.17 16.42 17.06 74.44 In months of Imports 11.30 9.19 10.42 10.85 9.87 15.03 63.55 Public Debt 40.37 42.03 45.68 46.08 46.83 47.01 11.85 Net Public Debt 37.42 39.03 40.89 40.74 41.15 41.49 6.30 Bank Assets 74.27 82.26 91.73 90.43 91.76 94.25 14.58 Bank Deposits (Private Sector) 60.69 67.29 75.13 74.80 75.60 77.78 15.59 Bank Loans to Private Sector 18.92 20.42 24.80 24.61 24.69 25.04 22.62 Money Supply M2 15.57 16.47 22.13 23.10 23.87 24.76 50.33 Money Supply M3 53.23 59.83 66.44 66.38 67.08 68.66 14.76 LBP Lending Rate (%) 10.37 10.10 9.98 9.90 10.08 9.95 (15b.p.) LBP Deposit Rate (%) 7.49 7.40 7.18 7.28 7.27 7.22 (18b.p.) USD Lending Rate (%) 8.55 8.02 7.37 7.53 7.54 7.47 (55b.p.) USD Deposit Rate (%) 4.76 4.69 3.57 3.54 3.47 3.33 (136b.p.) %* Change in CPI** 7.04 5.92 11.76 11.16 8.35 6.36 44b.p. * Year-on-Year; ** Consumer Price Index Note: b.p. i.e. basis point Sources: ABL, BdL Capital Markets Most Traded Last Price % Change* Total Weight in Sovereign Coupon Mid Price Mid Yield Stocks on BSE ($) Volume Market Eurobonds % $ % Capitalization Solidere "A" 15.70 2.35 90,981 18.44% Oct.2009 10.250 102.75 5.32 Solidere "B" 15.71 3.02 38,767 12.00% Dec.2009 7.000 100.88 5.80 Byblos Common 1.60 (1.84) 1,650 4.08% Mar.2010 7.125 100.63 6.46 Byblos Priority 1.69 0.00 9,000 4.09% May 2011 7.875 101.63 7.06 BLOM GDR 62.50 (2.42) 2,222 5.43% Sep.2012 7.750 100.50 7.59 BLOM Listed 61.00 0.00 0 15.41% June 2013 8.625 101.75 8.13 Audi GDR 44.17 (0.39) 3,915 5.10% Apr.2015 10.000 106.75 8.56 Audi Listed 40.00 0.00 7,525 16.06% Jan.2016 8.500 99.00 8.69 HOLCIM 13.08 (3.11) 370 3.00% May 2016 11.625 114.75 8.80 Apr.2021 8.250 92.50 9.29 Source: Beirut Stock Exchange (BSE); *Week-on-week Source: Byblos Capital Markets This Week Last Week % Change Feb. 2009 Feb. 2008 % Change Total Shares Traded 154,480 140,390 10.04 54,105,555 2,398,001 2,156.28 Total Value Traded $2,663,016 $2,921,215 (8.84) $115,261,712 $43,415,201 165.49 Market Capitalization $8.51bn $8.47bn 0.49 $8.55bn $10.54bn (18.90) Source: Beirut Stock Exchange (BSE) LEBANON THIS WEEK March 9-13, 2009 1 Lebanon in the News Lebanon ranks 128th globally, 17th in MENA region in credit ratings In its semi-annual survey on the creditworthiness of 177 countries, MENA Countries Rankings & Scores Institutional Investor magazine ranked Lebanon in 128th place world- Credit MENA GLobal wide and 17th among 20 countries in the Middle East and North Africa Country Rating Rank Rank region in the March 2009 survey. Lebanon ranked 113th globally and Qatar 76.7 1 26 16th regionally in September 2008 and came in 115th place globally and UAE 76.0 2 30 17th regionally in the March 2008 survey. Also, Lebanon came in 27th Kuwait 74.4 3 33 place among 30 upper middle income countries, up from 28th place in Saudi Arabia 72.4 4 37 September 2008 and 29th place in March 2008. The survey rates the cred- Oman 69.8 5 40 itworthiness of countries on a scale of 0 to 100, with 100 representing Bahrain 68.2 6 42 countries with the least chance of debt default. The ratings are based on Israel 67.8 7 43 input provided by senior economists and sovereign risk analysts at lead- Tunisia 58.7 8 57 ing global banks and money management and securities firms. Morocco 53.7 9 63 Algeria 53.3 10 65 On a global basis, Lebanon ranked ahead of Turkmenistan, Benin and Egypt 49.9 11 69 Ecuador and came immediately behind Uzbekistan, Mali and Swaziland. Libya 49.1 12 71 Also, Lebanon ranked ahead of Belize and Belarus came behind Fiji and Jordan 43.8 13 80 Argentina among upper middle-income countries. Lebanon's global rank Iran 33.2 14 97 regressed by 15 spots from the September survey by 13 spot from the Syria 28.0 15 119 March 2008. Lebanon received a score of 26.1 points, below the global Yemen 27.9 16 120 average of 45 points as well as lower than the MENA and Arab averages Lebanon 26.1 17 128 of 48.8 points and 48.7 points, respectively, according to Byblos Mauritania 20.4 18 147 Research. It also scored below the average of 47.9 points for upper mid- Iraq 16.7 19 157 dle income countries. Its score declined by 3.8 points, or 12.7%, from last Sudan 10.8 20 171 September and by 2.8 points or 9.7% from March 2008. The rankings of Source: Institutional Investor, Byblos Research 9 MENA countries improved, 10 regressed and one was unchanged, while the scores of all 20 countries declined from September 2008. The survey said creditworthiness has declined around much of the world, as the U.S. subprime crisis deteriorated into a global reces- sion. It added that the rating of nearly every industrialized country in North America, Western Europe and Asia regressed, while most emerging markets economies, which many have thought immune to U.S. problems only a year ago, suffered significant declines. The global average score declined to 45 points from 47 points last September and from 46.6 points in March 2008. Switzerland remained the country with the best creditworthiness in the world while Zimbabwe had the highest probability of default worldwide.