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World Oil Outlook 2015 2015 20152015 World Oil Outlook World Oil Outlook World WorldWorld OilOil OutlookOutlook Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries www.opec.orgwww.opec.org OrganizationOrganization of the Petroleum of the Exporting Petroleum Countries Exporting Countries 2015 World Oil Outlook Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries OPEC is a permanent, intergovernmental organiza- tion, established in Baghdad, Iraq, on 10–14 Septem- ber 1960. The Organization comprises 12 Members: Algeria, Angola, Ecuador, the Islamic Republic of Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Venezuela. The Organization has its headquarters in Vienna, Austria. © OPEC Secretariat, October 2015 Helferstorferstrasse 17 A-1010 Vienna, Austria www.opec.org ISBN 978-3-9503936-0-6 The data, analysis and any other information (‘Content’) contained in this publica- tion is for informational purposes only and is not intended as a substitute for advice from your business, finance, investment consultant or other professional. Whilst reasonable efforts have been made to ensure the accuracy of the Content of this publication, the OPEC Secretariat makes no warranties or representations as to its accuracy, currency or comprehensiveness and assumes no liability or responsibility for any error or omission and/or for any loss arising in connection with or attributable to any action or decision taken as a result of using or relying on the Content of this publication. This publication may contain references to material(s) from third par- ties whose copyright must be acknowledged by obtaining necessary authorization from the copyright owner(s). The OPEC Secretariat will not be liable or responsible for any unauthorized use of third party material(s). The views expressed in this pub- lication are those of the OPEC Secretariat and do not necessarily reflect the views of individual OPEC Member Countries. The material contained in this publication may be used and/or reproduced for educa- tional and other non-commercial purposes without prior written permission from the OPEC Secretariat provided that the copyright holder is fully acknowledged. Acknowledgements Director, Research Division Omar S Abdul-Hamid Head, Energy Studies Department Oswaldo Tapia Solis Authors Jan Ban, Jorge León Arellano, Roberto F Aguilera, Martin Tallett Contributors Amal Alawami, Julio Arboleda Larrea, Hend Lutfi, Mohammad Taeb, Moufid Benmerabet, Eleni Kaditi, Erfan Vafaiefard, Joerg Spitzy, Ralf Vogel, Nadir Guerer, Harvir Kalirai, Eissa Alzerma, Mehrzad Zamani, Douglas Linton, Bashir Elmegaryaf Editors James Griffin, Alvino-Mario Fantini Senior Editing Assistant Anne Rechbach Secretarial support Marie Brearley, Angelika Hauser Layout and typesetting Andrea Birnbach Design & Production Coordinator Carola Bayer Additional technical and statistical support Hojatollah Ghanimi Fard, Adedapo Odulaja, Hasan Hafidh Hamid, Hossein Hassani, Aziz Yahyai, Pantelis Christodoulides, Roland Matous, Klaus Stoeger, Mouhamad Moudassir, Mohammad Sattar, Anna Gredinger OPEC’s Economic Commission Board (as at September 2015) Achraf Benhassine, Kupessa Daniel, Andrés Miño Ron, Mehdi Asali, Ali Nazar Faeq Al-Shatari, Mohammad Khuder Al-Shatti, Abdelkarim Omar Alhaderi, Sultan Al- Binali, Nasser Al-Dossary, Salem Hareb Al Mehairi, Nélida Izarra This year’s publication is dedicated to our dear friend and colleague, Garry Brennand, who sadly passed away earlier this year. Garry was an essential part of the team that published the rst Outlook in 2007. His knowledge of the indus- try and its intricacies and his tireless commitment were instrumental in developing and expanding the Outlook in the years that followed. His input this year has been greatly missed. Contents Foreword 1 Executive summary 4 SECTION ONE Oil supply and demand outlook to 2040 26 SECTION TWO Oil downstream outlook to 2040 220 Footnotes 340 Annexes 348 Oil supply and demand outlook to 2040 SECTION ONE CHAPTER 1 WORLD ENERGY TRENDS: OVERVIEW OF THE REFERENCE CASE 29 Key assumptions 30 Energy demand 56 Oil demand 77 Liquids supply 88 CHAPTER 2 OIL DEMAND BY SECTOR 95 Road transportation 98 Aviation 115 Rail and domestic waterways navigation 120 Marine bunkers 125 Petrochemicals 131 ‘Other industry’ 134 Residential/commercial/agriculture 139 Electricity generation 142 CHAPTER 3 LIQUIDS SUPPLY 147 Medium-term outlook for liquids supply 147 Long-term outlook for liquids supply 168 Crude quality developments 173 Upstream investment 176 CHAPTER 4 THE OIL OUTLOOK: UNCERTAINTIES, CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES 181 Alternative economic growth scenarios 181 Alternative non-OPEC supply scenarios 190 Climate change 199 Human resource constraints 208 Energy poverty and sustainable development 209 Dialogue and cooperation 214 Oil downstream outlook to 2040 SECTION TWO CHAPTER 5 OIL PRODUCT DEMAND OUTLOOK TO 2040 223 Demand by product 223 Regional product demand 234 CHAPTER 6 MEDIUM-TERM REFINING OUTLOOK 247 Refining capacity expansion – overview of additions and trends 247 Review of projects by region 252 Distillation capacity: capacity addition versus requirements 263 Implications for refinery closures 275 Secondary capacity additions 278 Implications for refined products supply/demand balances 282 CHAPTER 7 LONG-TERM REFINING OUTLOOK 285 Distillation capacity requirements 285 Secondary capacity additions 293 Downstream investment requirements 305 CHAPTER 8 OIL MOVEMENTS 311 US & Canada crude oil transport and exports 313 Crude oil movements 316 CHAPTER 9 DOWNSTREAM CHALLENGES 329 Footnotes & Annexes FOOTNOTES 340 ANNEX A 348 Abbreviations ANNEX B 354 OPEC World Energy Model (OWEM): definitions of regions ANNEX C 362 World Oil Refining Logistics Demand (WORLD) Model: definitions of regions ANNEX D 366 Major data sources List of boxes Box 1.1 Effect of a shift in PPP calculation based on the ICP 2011 results 30 Box 1.2 Speculation in an era of financial reform 46 Box 1.3 Asia leads expansion of global middle class 63 Box 1.4 Oil demand growth: looking beyond falling oil prices 81 Box 2.1 The impact of lower oil price assumptions on the penetration of LNG vessels 128 Box 2.2 Can oil expand its role in the power generation sector? 144 Box 3.1 Norway’s three influencing links: fiscal regime, economy and oil price 159 Box 3.2 Another cycle in upstream capital spending 178 Box 4.1 CCS: a viable option for the future 206 Box 6.1 African refining: a new path to growth? 260 Box 6.2 Some breathing space for European refiners 267 Box 7.1 IMO regulations: implications still unclear for refiners and markets 295 Box 7.2 Gasoline octane – revving up to new levels? 302 Box 8.1 Mexico swaps: another hole in the US crude export wall 315 Box 8.2 ESPO: a potential oil benchmark 317 Box 9.1 Refinery process technology: no disruptive entries just steady as she goes 333 List of tables Table 1.1 Medium-term annual real GDP growth rates in the Reference Case 33 Table 1.2 Population by region 36 Table 1.3 Urban and rural population by region 41 Table 1.4 Long-term real GDP growth rates in the Reference Case 43 Table 1.5 World primary energy demand in the Reference Case 59 Table 1.6 Approved US LNG export projects 72 Table 1.7 Medium-term oil demand outlook in the Reference Case 78 Table 1.8 Long-term oil demand outlook in the Reference Case 85 Table 1.9 Medium-term liquids supply outlook in the Reference Case 89 Table 1.10 Long-term liquids supply outlook in the Reference Case 92 Table 2.1 Projections of passenger car ownership rates to 2040 101 Table 2.2 Projection of number of passenger cars 102 Table 2.3 Projection of number of commercial vehicles 105 Table 2.4 Oil demand in road transportation in the Reference Case 114 Table 2.5 Oil demand in aviation in the Reference Case 119 Table 2.6 Oil demand in rail and domestic waterways navigation in the Reference Case 124 Table 2.7 Top five bunker ports in the world 127 Table 2.8 Oil demand in marine bunkers in the Reference Case 130 Table 2.9 Oil demand in the petrochemical sector in the Reference Case 134 Table 2.10 Oil demand in ‘other industry’ in the Reference Case 138 Table 2.11 Oil demand in residential/commercial/agriculture in the Reference Case 141 Table 2.12 Oil demand in electricity generation in the Reference Case 143 Table 3.1 Medium-term non-OPEC crude and NGLs supply outlook in the Reference Case 148 Table 3.2 Global tight crude supply outlook in the Reference Case 152 Table 3.3 Global unconventional NGLs supply outlook in the Reference Case 153 Table 3.4 Medium-term other liquids supply outlook (excluding biofuels) in the Reference Case 166 Table 3.5 Medium-term non-OPEC biofuels outlook in the Reference Case 168 Table 3.6 Non-OPEC crude and NGLs supply outlook in the Reference Case 169 Table 3.7 Long-term other liquids supply outlook (excluding biofuels) in the Reference Case 171 Table 3.8 Long-term non-OPEC biofuels supply outlook in the Reference Case 173 Table 4.1 Average GDP growth rates for the period 2016–2020 in the economic growth scenarios 182 Table 4.2 Average GDP growth rates for the period 2014–2040 in the economic growth scenarios 185 Table 4.3 Oil demand in the higher economic growth scenario 187 Table 4.4 OPEC and non-OPEC supply in the higher economic growth scenario 187 Table 4.5 Oil demand in the lower economic growth scenario 188 Table 4.6 OPEC and non-OPEC supply in the lower economic growth scenario 188 Table 5.1 Global product demand, shares and growth, 2014–2040 225 Table 5.2 Refined product demand by
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