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The Global Economic Outlook Us Elections and Beyond

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The Global Economic Outlook Us Elections and Beyond THE GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK US ELECTIONS AND BEYOND November 2016 Laurence Boone Chief Economist, AXA Group Head of Research, AXA IM [email protected] Key messages US elections: significant change ahead, uncertainty prevails for now The US election could prove a game changer, well beyond economics World affairs and domestic social issues are likely to be impacted by the Trump election. A radical redefinition of global governance is likely if the US retreats from international commitments On economics, Trump looks set to kick-start the ‘traditional’ boom-bust cycle over the next few years Uncertainty will prevail until Trump is inaugurated. Appointments made until 20th January will only be indicators Fiscal support could boost the growth outlook in 2017 and especially in 2018 There is agreement between Trump and the Republicans to cut taxes for households and corporates, while the infrastructure spending programme is less consensual More complex: a relaxation of financial regulation is likely, albeit at regional levels. Other important sectors include energy, defence and security, healthcare (reform of the Affordable Care Act) The Fed should turn more hawkish than previously expected and hike twice in 2017, three times in 2018 Trade remains one of the most uncertain areas Renegotiations of NAFTA agreements with Mexico and trade restrictions with China would go against the Republican establishment and the interest of many US firms Trump received a popular mandate to protect manufacturing jobs, however, and has more power to act without Congress 2 Laurence Boone, Chief Economist AXA Group, Head of Research, AXA IM November 2016 Key messages European outlook: risks from politics Italian referendum: our base case is “no” but with a small majority PM Renzi has linked his fate to the referendum, but valid if large gap between yes and no Risk: a failed referendum would mean at best low reform dynamic, impact on yield and banks is possible Low but not null risk : forced new elections could lead to political confusion, euro sovereign risk could be back The French and the German have national elections in 2017, anti-European parties have significant voices French presidential elections are due in April/May 2017 German general elections will take place in fall 2017; AFD rising Dutch general elections in March 2017 could also see far-right surf on anti-EU sentiment European construction taking a stall? EU has to change for fear of diluting; EMU needs consolidation for full recovery Need a change in Franco-German leadership spirit to make things move What is needed: strong leadership for … true single market, complete banking union, budget only comes third 3 Laurence Boone, Chief Economist AXA Group, Head of Research, AXA IM November 2016 Key messages Allocation: reduce EM exposure & mind political risk in Europe Extreme proposals from the Trump administration could hit EM assets Any trade restriction should disproportionately hurt Latin America and Asia. We prefer EM Europe Despite improving fundamentals, EM could experience capital outflows as US bond yields rise Depreciations of EM currencies, especially Mexico, should put pressure on FX reserves and on external debt service The sell-off in rates can be sustained Inflation expectations have risen but remain below our central scenario for the next few years Our Fed policy expectations are above current market pricing The term premium in government bond yields remains in negative territory, implying significant upside remains possible Heavy political agenda in Europe and threats from the Italian referendum PM Renzi would be weakened in case of a no vote and may have to step down: widening of spreads and risks on financials could materialize if political uncertainty results from a large no France : Possible volatility around French elections 4 Laurence Boone, Chief Economist AXA Group, Head of Research, AXA IM November 2016 I Themes of the Month: politics in the US and Europe p.5 II Macro Outlook p.25 III Investment Strategy p.44 IV Forecasts p.55 V Calendar p.59 VI Latest Publications p.61 VII Appendices: structural analysis p.63 5 Laurence Boone, Chief Economist AXA Group, Head of Research, AXA IM November 2016 Theme of the month – Trump Presidency Trump wins both Presidency and Congress opening doors to change • Judged from even the start of this year where President-Elect Donald Trump was not even considered a contender to win the Republican nomination, and given at best a chance in three to win, Trump’s election has been a shock • Trump so far is a little short of Clinton on the popular vote (47.7% vs 47.4%). Older voters (45+), male voters, and white voters preferred Trump. Black voters voted 88% to 8% for Clinton over Trump. Young voters did not vote • As expected, Republicans retained a majority in the House of Representatives, and the Senate went with the Presidency. This is the first Republican clean sweep since 2006, suggesting a large share of Trump program may be implemented Trump takes key battlegrounds to win Republicans achieve clean sweep Key State Polling/Projected outcomes Trump lead Nevada Wisconsin Michigan Ohio Penn Florida Iowa N Carolina Georgia New Hamp Virginia Colorado 8 1.5 1 4 0.5 0 0 -0.5 -4 -1 Clinton lead-8 -1.5 -2 -12 8 Nov State polling Republican/Democrat projected State outcome -2.5 -16 -3 Source: Real Clear Politics, BBC. Note: Mich. and New Hamp. still to declare Source: Associated Press/BBC 6 Laurence Boone, Chief Economist AXA Group, Head of Research, AXA IM November 2016 Theme of the month – Trump Presidency Uncertainty is high but the balance leans towards a boost to GDP • Significant policy uncertainty prevails and could persist, with little indication what Trump’s policy priorities will be before January 20. His acceptance speech was designed to appease anxiety. • Before the election, we identified two Trump victory scenarios: a fiscal boost only and one that included the protectionist measures. We lean towards areas of convergence with traditional Republicans (tax cuts, financial deregulation among others), but are wary of substantial downside risk • We do not project full implementation of Trump’s fiscal stimulus (1.8pp of GDP versus 2.6pp announced), which would still provide material stimulus (+1.1pp over 2 years). We forecast GDP of 2.1% in 2017 and 1.9% in 2018 Estimated impact of Trump’s fiscal proposals Initial reaction to the US growth outlook Estimated growth stimulus of Trumps fiscal US growth outlook (with pre-election scenario range) % pt GDP proposals % GDP % GDP 1.6 2.5 AXA IM pre-election scenario: stimulus only 2.5 1.2 0.8 1.5 1.5 0.4 AXA IM post-election base case 0.5 0.5 0.0 -0.5 AXA IM pre-election scenario: stimulus -0.5 -0.4 and protectionism -0.8 -1.5 -1.5 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2016 2017 2018 2019 Source: Tax Foundation, FRB and AXA IM Research Source: AXA IM Research 7 Laurence Boone, Chief Economist AXA Group, Head of Research, AXA IM November 2016 Theme of the month – Trump Presidency With the economy at tight capacity, this should fuel inflation • In an economy with little spare capacity, a fiscal boost is likely to raise the inflation outlook. We forecast CPI inflation rising to 1.8% in 2017 and 2.5% in 2018, somewhat tampered by a stronger dollar. • With fiscal-boosted growth above potential and inflation rising, we expect a quicker withdrawal of monetary policy stimulus in 2018. Our outlook remains of a more cautious tightening than suggested by a Taylor rule with 1 hike in 2016, 2 in 2017 and 3 in 2018, taking rates to 1.75-2.00% by end-2018. • This is abstracting from potential changes at the Fed Board (4 seats including the Chair by mid-2018) Inflation to rise faster as demand stoked by fiscal stimulus Monetary policy rules using different GDP and inflation outlooks Projected inflation % yoy Core PCE 3 CPI 2 1 0 Q4 2016 Q2 2017 Q4 2017 Q2 2018 Q4 2018 Source: Tax Foundation, FRB, AXA IM Research Source: FRB, AXA IM Research 8 Laurence Boone, Chief Economist AXA Group, Head of Research, AXA IM November 2016 Theme of the month – Trump Presidency Which in turn contributed to, but not only, a correction in rates • Rates markets have sold off sharply following the Trump election, driven by both inflation and real rates, but primarily by rising inflation expectation in the US • Our term premium models also show a large repricing of the cost of holding duration • Curve steepening has continued, in line with our expectations, both in the 2-10 and the 10-30 sectors Broad-based selloff in core rates Sharp turn in term premia Change in bond yields between 04 November and 11 November G4 term premia on 10Y government bonds Basis points GBP % 40 5Y5Y Breakeven inflation 5Y Breakeven inflation 1.5 DEM 5Y5Y real rates 5Y real rates USD 35 JPY Total 10Y nominal yield 1.0 30 0.5 25 20 0.0 15 -0.5 10 5 -1.0 0 -1.5 US Treasury German Bund UK Gilt Jan-15 May-15 Sep-15 Jan-16 May-16 Sep-16 Source: Bloomberg and AXA IM Research Source: Bloomberg and AXA IM Research 9 Laurence Boone, Chief Economist AXA Group, Head of Research, AXA IM November 2016 Theme of the month – Trump Presidency All DM rates are set to rise going forward, expect repricing of risk • On the back of a quicker Fed policy normalisation and slightly stronger normalisation in term premia, we have made revisions to our rates forecasts across the US and Europe • We now expect 10Y US Treasury yields at 2.75% and 10Y German Bunds at 0.80% at a one-year horizon • European peripherals have risen as a result of both higher core rates and markets betting on higher
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