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The Social Environment 6-1

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The Social Environment 6-1 The Social Environment 6-1 6.1 Demographic Characteristics and Trends population continues to live in the contiguous southeastern parishes of Kingston, St. Andrew and St. Catherine. Kingston and St. Andrew 6.1.1 Population and Growth Rate represented the major focus of inter-parish movements and growth Manchester had population of 185,269, in 2001, 7.1% of the national from 1921 to 1991. The most recent decade has seen a continuing population (Table 6.1, overleaf). The latest figure represents a growth decline in the population of the parish of Kingston and the slowing of rate of 16.6% since 1991 (156,700, 6.9% of the island’s total). The growth of the parish of St. Andrew. In contrast, the parish of St. growth rate was almost twice the national rate (9.1%) and one of the Catherine has continued its 2.3% growth rate of the past 30 years, highest in Jamaica. It compares with a rate of 8.8% between 1982 and nearly three times the national rate. 1991 and 18.6% between 1970 and 1982. Since 1982, the average Between 1991 and 2001, the fastest growing parishes after St. annual rate has been 0.94%. The high rate appears to be continuing. Catherine were Manchester (1.5%), St. James (1.3%) and St. Ann (1.1%). In terms of actual numbers, the parish of St. Catherine grew by 98,689 between 1991 and 2001, contributing 45.1% of the overall growth of 218,668 (Table 6.2). Manchester, with 25,661 new residents, was the next highest contributor, followed by Clarendon (+21,446), St. James (20,437) and northeast, St. Ann (16,720). Among the parish capitals, Mandeville’s annual average growth rate for the decade was exceeded only by May Pen (1.87%), Mandeville (1.83%), Spanish Town (1.73%) and Montego Bay (1.55%). Table 6.2 Comparative Parish Capital Growth Rates, 1991-2000 Capital Parish Population % % Share of 1991 2001 Change Parish Sav-La-Mar West’land 16,340 19,809 21.2 14.3 May Pen Clarendon 47,700 57,385 20.3 24.3 Mandeville Manchester 39,945 47,887 19.9 25.8 Spanish Tn. St. Catherine 110,379 131,055 18.7 27.3 Mo. Bay St. James 82,228 95,940 16.7 54.9 Figure 6-1 A traditional rural Manchester house being “updated” Kingston 99,762 95,810 -3.96 Perhaps the most significant change over the decade is the growth of St. Andrew 539,875 554,241 2.66 certain parish capitals, including Mandeville, relative to the Kingston KSA 639,637 650,051 1.63 and St. Andrew Urban Area. Just over two-fifths (43.5%) of the Source: STATIN, Preliminary Report, 2001 Census of Population 6-2 Parish of Manchester Sustainable Development Profile – Part One Table 6.1 Jamaica and Manchester Comparative Growth, 1991-2000 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2001 Total population Jamaica 2,403,500 2,425,400 2,488,000 2,471,600 2,459,600 2,488,100 2,515,450 2,540,300 2,563,700 2,581,700 2,599,334 Manchester 164,400 166,800 169,200 171,800 168,600 172,100 175,700 178,900 181,600 184,400 185,267 Manchester as % of Jamaica 6.84% 6.88% 6.80% 6.95% 6.85% 6.92% 6.98% 7.04% 7.08% 7.14% 7.13% Population change from previous year Jamaica n/a 0.91% 2.58% -0.66% -0.49% 1.16% 1.10% 0.99% 0.92% 0.70% 0.67% Manchester n/a 1.46% 1.44% 1.54% -1.86% 2.08% 2.09% 1.82% 1.51% 1.54% -1.13% Population change since 1990 Jamaica 0% 0.91% 3.52% 2.83% 2.33% 3.52% 4.66% 5.69% 6.67% 7.41% 8.15% Manchester 0% 1.46% 2.92% 4.50% 2.55% 4.68% 6.87% 8.82% 10.46% 12.17% 12.69% Source: STATIN, Preliminary Report, 2001 Census of Population, 2002 6.1.2 Population Characteristics Issue. Although housing preferences are for low densities, many local and parish-wide factors argue for accommodating a majority of future Population Location. Manchester is a predominantly rural parish. growth in Mandeville and the growth centers. This may require Only 34% of the population lives in designated urban areas, moving to higher densities in parts of Mandeville and other towns (see concentrated principally in Mandeville, to a lesser extent in Christiana, Chapter 7). Williamsfield and Porus. Population is sparse and scattered in Newport, Cross Keys, Mile Gully and Alligator Pond. Figures 6-2 and Table 6.3 Urban Center Growth Rates, 1991-2001 Figure 6-3 show the 1991 distribution of population. Urban Parish Population % Change Parish Total 2001 Centre 1991-2001 In 2001, Kingston and St. Andres, St. Catherine and St. James exceeded 1991 2001 % of % of Parish Urban Manchester in terms of the percentage of parish population classed as Old Harbour St. Catherine 12,718 23,610 85.6 4.9 6.7 urban. Table 6.3 shows that Porus and Williamsfield grew rapidly over the decade of the 1990s, reflecting suburban development and housing Portmore St. Catherine 96,143 159,974 66.4 33.3 45.4 schemes. However, the 2001 Census of Population shows that the Ewarton St. Catherine 6,534 10,699 63.7 2.2 3.0 Bog Walk St. Catherine 6,572 10,735 63.3 2.2 3.0 percentage of Manchester’s population considered urban rose only Linstead St. Catherine 9,433 15,046 59.5 3.1 4.3 slightly over the inter-censal decade from 33.7% to 35%. This was a Ocho Rios St. Ann 10,254 15,714 53.2 9.5 35.7 smaller increase than the national shift (from 50.1% to 52.1%). Negril Westmorel’d 4,184 5,823 39.2 4.2 16.4 Population Density. Manchester had 189 persons per square kilometer Porus Manchester 5,095 6,549 28.5 3.5 10.1 in 1991. By 2001 density reached 210/km2 (2.24 persons per hectare). Little London Westmorel’d 3,596 4,614 28.3 3.3 13.0 The density of Jamaica is 236 persons/km,2 high for the Caribbean Williamsfield Manchester 3,374 4,237 25.6 2.3 6.5 2 region, (exceeded only by Trinidad at 251/km ) and similar to the In-migration. The 1991 census revealed that a significant share of density of many European countries, such as the United Kingdom 2 Manchester’s growth came from in-migration. Mandeville, in particular, (242/km ). Figure 6-4 shows that the highest densities are in the is a primary destination for returning residents. The bauxite industry northeast, where topography dictates concentration, and in Mandeville. has augmented the population with foreign nationals and persons from However, Mandeville, has a low density for a major urban area. outside the parish seeking employment. The Social Environment 6-3 FIGURE 6-2 FIGURE 6- 6-4 Parish of Manchester Sustainable Development Profile – Part One The Social Environment 6-5 6-6 Parish of Manchester Sustainable Development Profile – Part One These factors gave Mandeville an average growth of some 5.2% per Birth, Death and Fertility Rates. In 1996, 6,197 live births were year between 1982 and 1991. Between 1991 and 2001, Mandeville’s recorded for the parish compared to 6,078 in 1995. The crude birth growth rate slowed to an average of 2.1% and was outstripped by the rate for 1996 is 35.3 per 1,000 mean population. The parish rate of the Porus Special Area. However, Mandeville added close to contributes 10.8 percent of the total births in Jamaica. In 1996 the ten times more population than did Porus (Table 6.4, overleaf). number of registered deaths for Manchester stood at 1,374. The crude death rate for 1996 was 7.9 per 1,000 mean population. Over the 1990s, Mandeville’s attraction continued to spur growth. Observations suggest that in addition to returning residents and In the 1970s and 1980s, the population of Manchester tended to be bauxite, other factors, such as the quality of the schools, the increased young but aging – reflecting a high fertility rate and low mortality in the ease of commuting and the expansion of Northern Caribbean older age group. However, between 1970 and 1991, fertility rates University (NCU) have attracted further in-migration. decreased significantly -- the15 and under age group declined from 47.8% to 37.1% (male) and from 46.1% to 35.9% (female). Over the The increased accessibility to Kingston provided by Highway 2000, same period, the size of the 65+ age group increased by 82.3%. planned to reach Williamsfield in 2007, is expected to bring additional pressure on the area. Emerging plans for research and development in Household Size and Composition. Table 6.5 indicates that household connection with NCU could be another growth magnet. In addition, size fell over the 1992-1998 period, reflecting a significant drop in the should the effects of global warming on temperatures become number of children and an increase in single-headed households noticeable in Jamaica, the Mandeville area will seem even more (although households headed by males declined). The 2001 Census attractive to those able to move or commute. Preliminary Report indicates that household size has continued to drop. The details of the 2001 Census, which cannot at present be mapped by Table 6.5 Household Composition, Jamaica and Manchester, 1992 and 1998 ED, should help in assessing the significance of these influences on growth and projecting the effects of the various growth factors.
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