Revenue Expenditure Has Includes Post Devolution Revenue Deficit Grant of Increased by 15.77 Per Cent in 2016-17 As Against 9.68 `3,350 Crore

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POPULATION AND
THE MACROECONOMY

Chapter 1, Population And The Macroeconomy

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POPULATION AND
THE MACROECONOMY

P o P ulation Pr o f il e o f th e S tat e

According to the Census of India 2011, the of children in the age group 0-6 years in Kerala was 12 per cent at the Census of 2001 and 10 per cent at the Census of 2011(The corresponding

ﬁgure for India in 2011 was 13 per cent).

Figure 1.1 presents a picture of child population in the districts of Kerala in 2001 and 2011. The highest proportion of child population was in Malappuram district and lowest proportion was in Pathanamthitta district. The decreasing trend is seen in all districts of the State. The southern districts of Kerala show 2 per cent decline except Kollam which has a decline of 1 per cent in the proportion of child population, while the northern districts in Kerala show 1 per cent decline in the proportion of child population except Wayanad which has a decline of 2 per cent. It shows that new addition to population in northern districts is faster than in the southern districts. Details are

given in Appendix 1.1.

population of Kerala was 33,406,061, or 2.76 per cent of India’s population. Of the States total population, 48 per cent population are males and 52 per cent are females.

The decadal growth rate of Kerala’s population was 4.9 per cent, the lowest among Indian States. Among the districts of the State, Malappuram has the highest growth rate (13.4 per cent), and Pathanamthitta has the lowest growth rate (-3.0 per cent). Idukki also has a negative growth rate (-1.8 per cent). The growth rate of population is lower in six southern districts (Idukki, Kottayam,

Alappuzha,

Kollam,

Pathanamthitta

and

Thiruvananthapuram) than in other districts of the State.

Child Population

The share of urban population in Kerala was 47.7 per cent, representing a decadal increase of 21.74 per cent between 2001 and 2011. As many as 15,934,926 persons in the State were living in urban areas. The rural population was 17,471,135. The district in which the proportion of the urban to total population was highest is Ernakulam
The child population (0-6 years) in Kerala shows a declining trend. Census data shows an absolute decline in the child population in the State. Kerala’s total child population in 2011 was 3,472,955 and 3,793,146 in 2001 census data. The population

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Figure 1.1
Child Population in Kerala, in per cent

Sou r c e : C e nsus 2001, 2011

(68 per cent). The share of urban population is sex ratio of Kerala was 1022 in 1961 and increased

lowest in Wayanad (3.9 per cent).

to 1016 in 1971. It further increased to 1032 and

1036 in 1981 and 1991 respectively. Sex ratio of Tamil Nadu is 996, of Karnataka is 973, of Andhra Pradesh is 993 and that of India is 943.

l it er acy

Kerala has the highest proportion of literate persons in the population among Indian States. The effective literacy rate is 93.91 per cent. Literacy was 90 per cent at the Census of 2001. The national literacy rate is 72 per cent. Among districts, Kottayam tops in the literacy chart with 97.2 per cent and Pathanamthitta is just behind with 96.5 per cent. Wayanad has the lowest literacy rate of 89 per cent and Palakkad is just above with 89.3 per cent. Even the lowest literacy rate of Wayanad (89 per cent) is higher than national rate of literacy. All districts have a score above 90 except Palakkad (89.3) and Wayanad (89). The difference between the lowest and the highest value is just 8.2. As compared to 2001, literacy rate of all the districts has improved. Details are given in Appendix 1.1.
Among the districts, Kannur has the highest sex ratio (1136) followed by Pathanamthitta (1132). WhileIdukkihasthelowestratio(1006),Ernakulum is just above with 1027. All the districts have sex ratio above 1000. In 2001, only Wayanad had ratio below 1000 (994). The difference between the lowest (Idukki, 1006) and highest (Kannur, 1136) is 130 points. Details are given in Appendix 1.2.

Child S e x ratio (0-6 Y e a r s)

Child sex ratio in Kerala is 964 as per the 2011 census data. It was 960 in 2001. The child sex ratio in Tamil Nadu is 943, Karnataka 948,

Andhra Pradesh 939 and the national ﬁgure is

919. Among districts, Pathanamthitta has the highest ratio (976) followed by Kollam (973) and Kannur (971). Thrissur has the lowest ratio (950), and Alappuzha is just above with a ratio of 951.

S e x ratio

The sex ratio (number of females per thousand males) of Kerala according to Census 2011 is 1084 and has improved by 26 points from 2001. The

Economic Review 2017, Kerala State Planning Board

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The difference between lowest and highest is 26 Analysis of district-wise distribution of State points. All districts have a ratio below 1,000. When population for the last 40 years from 1981 to analysing the decadal change, the highest increase 2011 shows that Malappuram district continues is in Kollam (13) followed by Kozhikode (10). to hold largest share of State population followed The decadal change in other districts is below 10. by Thiruvananthapuram and Ernakulam. Wayanad Thrissur (-)8, Idukki (-)5 and Alappuzha (-)5 have continues to have the smallest share of State negative decadal change in child sex ratio. Details population. Idukki, Kasragode and Pathanamthitta

are in Appendix 1.2.

also have a lower share of State population.

a g e G r oup Dist r ibution
D e nsity o f Population

It is interesting to note the demographic transition

in Kerala during the last ﬁfty years. It is observed

that the proportion of population in the age group of (0-14 years), has declined from 43 per cent in 1961 to 23 per cent in 2011. In the case of working age group (15-59 years), the population is increasing but at a lower rate. However, due to the increasing life expectancy and availability of health facilities, the proportion of population in the old age group (60 years and above) is showing an increasing trend from 6 per cent in 1961 to 13

per cent in 2011 (Figure 1.2).

Kerala’s density of population as per 2011 census is 860 persons per sq. km. While density of population in Tamil Nadu is 555, Karnataka 319, Andhra Pradesh 308, and that of India is 382. Thiruvananthapuramisthemostdenselypopulated district (1,508) while, Idukki is the least densely populated district (255). Density of population increased in all districts between the Censuses of 2001 and 2011, other than in Pathanamthitta and

Idukki . Details are in Appendix 1.1.

Dist r ict-Wis e Dist r ibution o f Population

If the trend continues like this, in the near future, the addition to the working age group (15-59) will decrease as the feeder category (0-14) is
The details of District-wise population in the State

are in Table 1.1.
Table 1.1
District-wise Population from 1981 to 2011, in per cent

Unit

1981

100.0
3.4

1991

100.0
3.7

2001

100.0
3.8

2011

100.0
3.9
Kerala Kasaragod

Kannur

7.6

7.7

7.6

Wayanad

2.2

2.3

2.5

2.4

Kozhikode Malappuram Palakkad

8.8

9.0

9.2

9.4

10.6

8.2
11.4
8.2
12.3

8.4

8.0

Thrissur

9.6

9.4

9.3

Ernakulam Idukki
10.0
3.8

9.7

9.8

3.7

3.5

3.3

Kottayam

6.7

6.3

6.1

5.9

Alappuzha

7.3

6.9

6.6

6.4

Pathanamthitta Kollam

4.4

4.1

3.9

3.6

8.5

8.3

8.1

7.9

Thiruvananthapuram

Sou r c e : C e nsus 1981,1991,2001,2011

10.2

10.1

10.2

9.9

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Figure 1.2
Age Group Distribution (percentage) Kerala 1961-2011

Sou r c e : C e nsus 1961,1971,1981,1991,2001,2011

diminishing. Moreover, proportion of the old areas of agricultural land with hamlets distributed age dependent group (60 and above) will increase sporadically. However, in Kerala, a number of which will entail higher social security expenditure small and medium towns are distributed in the

by government.

village background.

In the ﬁrst Census of 20th century (1901), the

State had a population of 6.4 million of which 5.9 million (92.9 per cent) were living in rural areas. The urban population accounted for only half a million, estimated as less than 10 per cent of the total population of the State. Over a period of hundred years, the share of rural population has undergone a steady decline and was 74 per

cent of total population in 2001. Signiﬁcantly,

in 2011 census, the population of the State was almost equally divided between rural and urban areas. The State has now an urban population of 159 million which accounts for 47.7 per cent of total population against a rural population of 174 million (52.3 per cent). The decadal growth rate of the urban population is 92.72 per cent in 2011.

ur banisation

The decadal growth rate of Kerala has been declining since 1981 at a greater pace than the national level. The decadal growth rate of Kerala during 2001-2011 has registered the lowest growth of 4.9 per cent ever since independence. It is much lower than the decadal growth rate of the nation as a whole which is 17.64 per cent. The gap between the rate of growth of population for India and Kerala has been increasing since 1981. The State’s addition to the total population of the country constitutes only 0.83 per cent of the national population growth of 181 million during 2001-2011. The decadal growth rate of rural population has also been declining since 1971 except for the year 2001. This trend is largely related to the unique settlement pattern of the State. Unlike the other parts of India, the habitation of the State is spread

continuously without much open lands or ﬁelds

separating habitations. A rural area is clearly visible elsewhere in India which mainly consists of vast
It is evident that there is a large increase in the number of towns due to the increase in number of

census towns in 2011. A census town is deﬁned as one area which is not statutorily notiﬁed as town

but has attained urban characteristics in number of population which exceeds 5,000; density of

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population is at least 400 persons per sq. km; and 2011, except one statutory town each. Wayanad a minimum of 75 percentage of male working is the district with least urban population in the population is employed outside the agricultural State. Considering the urban population growth sector. As per Census 2011, there are 461 census index during 2001-2011, the index increased in towns and 59 statutory towns in Kerala as against all districts except Idukki. Malappuram district 99 and 60 respectively in census 2001 which shows shows signiﬁcant increase in urban population a 366 per cent growth in the number of census growth index followed by Kollam, Thrissur and

towns. This classiﬁcation of census towns has Kasaragod. Wayanad has the least index value.

brought the rural population growth to negative

ﬁgures. Furthermore, the decadal population

growth rate of the towns which existed in both 2001 and 2011 census is estimated to be 3.90 per cent, lower than that of the State’s average of 4.86 per cent decadal population growth rate. This negates the scope of migration to the towns as an attribute of urban population growth. The growth in urban population is largely due to the increase in census towns that led to the urban sprawl in the State.
In terms of share of rural population to the total population of the State, Malappuram and Palakkad together account for 25 per cent. Along with the above districts, Kasargod, Kottayam, Pathanamthitta, Kollam, Idukki and Wayanad are the other districts where rural population outnumber the urban population. In Idukki and Wayanad, rural population exceeds 95 per cent of the population of the districts.

The overall sex ratio of the State is 1084 female for 1000 male. Sex ratio of rural area is 1077 and urban area is 1091. A notable change in sex ratio of 2001 and 2011 census is that the number of males predominated in Wayanad district and rural areas of Idukki district in 2001 census. Now in 2011 the position has entirely changed in favour of female in all districts irrespective of rural and urban divide. As far as the number of children in the age group 0-6, there is a huge fall in the absolute number by 470,899 which is a positive indicator of fall in fertility and future growth of population. The rural-urban sex-wise break up of child population shows negligible variation.
The highest number of towns falls in Thrissur district with 135, which accounts for more than 25 per cent of total towns in the State. Around 60 percentage of towns are located in Thrissur, Kannur, Ernakulam and Kozhikode districts. Urban population has crossed 1 million in 8 districts. Of these, Ernakulam has got the highest urban population, closely followed by Thrissur, Kozhikode and Malappuram districts. The total urban population of these four districts together constitutes more than 50 percentage of urban population in the State. Wayanad and Idukki districts do not have any census towns in

national an D S tat e in C o me

is estimated at `120.35 lakh crore in 2016-17, as against the previous year’s estimate of `112.46 lakh crore. In terms of growth rates, the gross national income is estimated to have risen by 7.0 per cent during 2016-17, in comparison to the growth rate of 8.0 per cent in 2015-16. The GNI at current prices is estimated at `149.94 lakh crore in 2016- 17, as compared to `135.22 lakh crore in 2015-16,

n ational i nco me

The Central Statistics Ofﬁce (CSO), Ministry of

Statistics and Programme Implementation, has released the provisional estimates of National

Income for the ﬁnancial year 2016-17 both

at constant (2011-12) and current prices. The Gross National Income (GNI) at 2011-12 prices

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showing a rise of 10.9 per cent. The Net National showing a growth rate of 11.0 per cent over the Income (NNI) at current prices is estimated at estimates of GDP for the year 2015-16 of `136.82 `134.08 lakh crore in 2016-17, as compared to lakh crore. The per capita GDP in real terms (at `120.76 lakh crore in 2015-16, showing a increase 2011-12 prices) during 2016-17 is estimated at

of 11.0 per cent. Details are given in Table 1.2.

`93,840 as against `88,706 in 2015-16, registering

an increase of over 5.8 per cent during the year. The per capita GDP at current prices is estimated at `116,888 in 2016-17 as against `106,641 for the previous year showing a growth of 9.6 per cent.
Real Gross Value Added (GVA) at basic constant (2011-12) prices for the year 2016-17 is estimated at `111.85 lakh crore showing a growth rate of 6.6 per cent over the GVA for the year 2015-16 of `104.91 lakh crore. The GVA at current prices is estimated at `136.69 lakh crore during 2016-17, as compared to `124.58 lakh crore during 2015-16, showing a increase of 9.7 per cent.
There are some conceptual differences between the key aggregates of national accounts published till 2014-15 at 2004-05 base year prices and 2011-12 base year prices being published now. Base year has been revised in the computation of national accounts statistics from 2004-05 to 2011-12. Some concepts have also undergone changes following the adoption of System of National Accounts (2008). GDP at factor cost has been replaced by Gross Value Added (GVA)
GDP at constant (2011-12) prices for the year 2016-17 is estimated at `121.90 lakh crore showing a growth rate of 7.1 per cent over the year 2015-16 of `113.81 lakh crore. GDP at current prices in the year 2016-17 is estimated at `151.84 lakh crore,

Table 1.2
National Income, Domestic Product and Per Capita Income at 2011-12 prices and current prices (All India), ` in crore

S l . No

At 2011-12 Prices

At Current Prices

Item
2014-15

(NS)
2015-16
(NS)
2016-17
(PE)
2014-15
(NS)
2015-16
(NS)
2016-17
(PE)

1234567

GVA at basic prices

9719023 10490514 11185440 11481794 12458642

(7.9) (6.6) (8.5)
10412280 11246305 12034713 12297698 13522256
13669914
(9.7)
Gross National Income (GNI)
14994109

(10.9)

(8.0)

(7.0)

10686776 10953761 12076882
(7.1) (10.3)
(10.0)
Net National Income 9231556 (NNI)
9982112
(8.1)
13408211
(11.0)
Gross domestic product (GDP)
10536984 11381002 12189854 12445128 13682035
(8.0) (7.1) (9.9)
9356260 10116809 10841917 11101191 12236662
15183709
(11.0)
Net domestic product (NDP)
13597811

(11.1)

(8.1)

(7.2)

(10.2)

Per capita Gross domestic product (`)
83165 73846
88706
(6.7)
93840
(5.8)
98225 87618
106641
(8.6)
116888
(9.6)
Per capita Net domestic product (`)
78853
(6.7)
83464
(5.8)
95375
(8.8)
104679
(9.7)

Note: The ﬁgures in parenthesis show the percentage change over previous year. NS- New Series Estimate, PE- Provisional Estimate Source: Central Statistics Ofﬁce.

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at basic prices and GDP at market prices is now The quick estimate of Net State Domestic Product

termed GDP.

(NSDP) at factor cost at constant prices (2011-

12) is `44,051,533 lakh in 2016-17 compared
The detailsof GDP, NDP, GNI andNNI at current to the provisional estimate of `40,906,975 lakh and constant (2011-12) prices from 2012-13 to during 2015-16, recording a growth rate of 7.69 2016-17 with percentage change over previous per cent in 2016-17. At current prices the NSDP

year are given in Appendix 1.3, 1.4, 1.5 and 1.6. is estimated at `55,848,205 lakh (quick estimate)

The sectoral distribution of GVA at basic price at in 2016-17 compared to the provisional estimate constant (2011-12) prices and current prices with of `50,392,861 lakh during 2015-16. The growth percentage change over previous year is given in rate of NSDP at current prices is 10.83 per cent

Appendix 1.7 and Appendix 1.8.

in 2016-17 compared to 9.40 per cent in 2015-16

(Table 1.3).

Stat e i nco me
P er Capita Stat e i nco me

The quick estimate of Gross State Domestic Product (GSDP) at constant (2011-12) prices is `48,087,791 lakh during 2016-17 as against the provisional estimate of `44,769,237 lakh during 2015-16, registering a growth rate of 7.41 per cent in 2016-17 compared to 6.60 per cent in 2015-16 (Figure 1.3). At current prices the Gross State Domestic Product is estimated at `61,703,466 lakh (quick estimate) in 2016-17 as against the provisional estimate of `55,794,651 lakh during 2015-16 showing a growth rate of 10.59 per cent.
As per the quick estimates, the per capita GSDP at constant (2011-12) prices in 2016-17 was `140,107 as against the provisional estimate of `131,086 in 2015-16, recording a growth rate of 6.88 per cent in 2016-17. At current prices, the per capita GSDP in 2016-17 was `179,778 registering a growth rate of 10.04 per cent over the previous year’s estimate of `163,369. The best indicator of per capita State income is NSDP divided by the population. At constant (2011-12)