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Analysis of the London-Middlesex Labour Market

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Analysis of the London-Middlesex Labour Market Overview of Migration Patterns Economic Region 570 (Tri-County area) 2001 to 2006 An Analysis of Since 2001 a gradually declining number of people Migration have moved into the Essex / Kent / Lambton tri- county area. Patterns Overview Essex County, This report analyzes the impact of migration on the population (which is Chatham-Kent, & based on Census records) for Essex County, the Municipality of Chatham- Kent, and Lambton County. This geographic area may also be referred to as Lambton County Economic Region 570 or the Windsor – Sarnia area or the tri-county area. While several factors can affect population changes, this report examines population growth and decline due to net-migration only. January 2008 The figures have been taken from Summary Tables based on Statistics Canada's Tax Filer Data Bases. The migration estimates in the tables are derived from a comparison of addresses from individual income tax returns for two consecutive years. Prepared by the Labour Market Analyst: For comparison purposes, data for other counties in Southwestern Ontario has been included. Diane Nease – Windsor / Essex Tel: (519) 560-2529 [email protected] Deb Koscielski – Chatham-Kent, Highlights Sarnia / Lambton Tel : (519) 380-6853 [email protected] More than 4,100 people (almost 1%) of the total population in the tri-county area can be accounted for by net-migration in the last five years. Net-migration to the area has slowed since peaking in 2001-2002 at more than 2,000 people. For the first time this century, people left Visit our website at: the area in 2005-2006 (overall, almost 600 people). www.labourmarketinformation.ca In 2005-06, the number of youth leaving the area nearly doubled from the previous year. In addition, the number of working age people fell for the first time, all of which were in the mid-age range of 25-44 years. International migrants accounted for nearly all the movement of people to the tri-county area since 2001 (15,152 people). Tri-County Area – Net migration, 2001 - 2006 According to the 2001 Census, the tri-county 2005-06 area had a total population of 609,655. 2004-05 Over this five year period, population gains due to migration occurred mainly among the 2003-04 working age group (25-64). The numbers of youth shrank while seniors (ages 65+) 2002-03 remained relatively stable. The area’s labour market peaked in 2000, 2001-02 reflected in the record low unemployment rate (5.7% annual average), and drawing people to this area. -1,000 -500 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 Net Migration - Tri-County Area Tri-County migration numbers by age group -- Net gains & losses 01-02 02-03 03-04 04-05 05-06 2001 - 2006 Youth (18-24 years) -118 -162 -66 -282 -551 -1,179 Working Age (25-44 years) 2,118 1,305 1,128 750 -50 5,251 Seniors (65+ years) 27 -6 69 -37 12 65 All Ages 2,027 1,137 1,131 431 -589 4,137 Net migration by County Essex County 2005-06 was the first year Essex County saw youth as well as working aged people leave 2005-06 the area since record low unemployment rates 2004-05 in 2000. The loss of youth and people in their early 2003-04 careers (25 to 44 age group) affects the local economy – these age groups are active 2002-03 consumers, often establishing households and with growing families. 2001-02 The 2001 Census showed a total population of 374,975. -500 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 Net Migration - Essex County Essex County migration numbers by age group -- Net gains & losses 01-02 02-03 03-04 04-05 05-06 2001 - 2006 Youth (18-24 years) 545 353 400 124 -46 1,376 Working Age (25-44 years) 2,098 1,067 1,144 511 -274 4,547 Seniors (65+ years) 70 -5 40 -15 27 117 All Ages 2,714 1,415 1,584 620 -293 6,040 Municipality of Chatham-Kent Chatham-Kent consistently experienced a net loss in its population due to migration since 2001 – this 2005-06 was especially visible among youth however the loss of prime age workers (25-64) has leveled out 2004-05 since 2004. 2003-04 Chatham-Kent has lost many manufacturing jobs as new employers shift production to the United 2002-03 States and Mexico. The 2001 Census showed a total population of 2001-02 107,709. -1000 -800 -600 -400 -200 0 Net Migration - Municipality of Chatham-Kent Municipality of Chatham-Kent migration numbers by age group -- Net gains & losses 01-02 02-03 03-04 04-05 05-06 2001 - 2006 Youth (18-24 years) -453 -351 -263 -133 -248 -1,148 Working Age (25-44 years) -357 -81 -266 58 -8 -654 Seniors (65+ years) -48 22 15 -21 -32 -64 All Ages -858 -410 -514 -96 -288 -2,166 Lambton County Lambton County has experienced declining migration numbers among youth to the area since 2005-06 2001. 2004-05 Sarnia/Lambton has encouraged people to return to the area by evolving from its beginnings as a 2003-04 petrochemical and refining economy to becoming much more diversified. The economy now includes 2002-03 call-centres, engineering, fabrication, alternative energy and tourism sectors. 2001-02 The 2001 Census showed a total population of 126,971. -100 -50 0 50 100 150 200 Net Migration - Lambton County Lambton County migration numbers by age group -- Net gains & losses 01-02 02-03 03-04 04-05 05-06 2001 - 2006 Youth (18-24 years) -210 -164 -203 -273 -257 -1,107 Working Age (25-44 years) -32 319 250 181 232 1,358 Seniors (65+ years) 198 -23 14 -1 17 12 All Ages 171 132 61 -93 -8 263 Waterloo, Elgin, and Middlesex Counties experienced the greatest influx of immigrants in the past five years. The Municipality of Chatham-Kent along with Huron County saw a net loss in their total population (including children under age 17) due to out-migration. Waterloo Regional Municipality 24,420 Oxford County 2,193 Essex County 8,987 Huron County -204 Middlesex County 12,353 Lambton County 1,146 Elgin County 3,937 Chatham-Kent -2,054 4.8 5.6 3.1 2.2 2.4 0.9 -0.3 -1.9 HURON OXFORD WATERLOO CHATHAM- MIDDLESEX ELGIN COUNTY LAMBTON ESSEX COUNTY COUNTY REGIONAL KENT COUNTY COUNTY COUNTY (basedpopulation) on 2001 MUNICIPALITY Percentage Change 2001 - Change 2006 2001 Percentage International, Inter-provincial, & Intra-provincial migration The table below shows the flow of people (all ages included) having moved into our area over the years (which peaked in 2001). The level of migration dropped substantially in 2002-03, and has continued to ease through 2006. In 2004, people were attracted to the labour market faster than they could be absorbed, ultimately pushing up the unemployment rate. In 2005, the local economy continued to soften, prompting fewer people to enter the labour market. The manufacturing sector which employs a significant portion of our area’s workforce, responded to higher exchange rates, rising energy costs, and international trade competition in 2006, resulting in notable job losses. The largest cumulative sources of net-migration to the Windsor – Sarnia area were international migration (people moving from outside of Canada) and inter-provincial migration (people from other provinces). Recently, Ontario experienced a loss of population to Alberta, in part due to the province experiencing a very active economy with the increased importance and value of domestic oil. Net-Migration - Tri-County Year 01-02 02-03 03-04 04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 Newfoundland 17 21 34 5 29 Prince Edward Island 13 -1 8 6 18 Nova Scotia 36 32 19 37 -33 New Brunswick -1 0 17 2 30 Quebec 50 79 -22 10 37 Ontario -389 -299 -1094 -923 -1311 Manitoba -50 -33 -17 9 -24 Saskatchewan 5 23 5 26 -3 Alberta -138 -118 -62 -772 -1355 British Columbia -10 -134 -212 -268 -325 Yukon Territories 3 -5 -13 -9 -4 North West Territories -1 -7 -8 -1 -1 Nunavut -2 -3 -3 4 3 International 4028 2270 3219 3172 2463 Total 3,561 1,825 1,871 1,298 -476 .
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