Telenor – First Quarter 2008
Disclaimer
The following presentation is being made only to, and is only directed at, persons to whom such presentation may lawfully be communicated (’relevant persons’). Any person who is not a relevant person should not act or rely on this presentation or any of its contents. Information in the following presentation relating to the price at which relevant investments have been bought or sold in the past or the yield on such investments cannot be relied upon as a guide to the future performance of such investments. This presentation does not constitute an offering of securities or otherwise constitute an invitation or inducement to any person to underwrite, subscribe for or otherwise acquire securities in any company within the Telenor Group. The release, publication or distribution of this presentation in certain jurisdictions may be restricted by law, and therefore persons in such jurisdictions into which this presentation is released, published or distributed should inform themselves about, and observe, such restrictions. This presentation contains statements regarding the future in connection with Telenor’s growth initiatives, profit figures, outlook, strategies and objectives. In particular, the section ‘Outlook for 2008’ contains forward-looking statements regarding the Telenor Group’s expectations. All statements regarding the future are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties, and many factors can lead to actual profits and developments deviating substantially from what has been expressed or implied in such statements.
Kyivstar was deconsolidated from 29 December 2006, due to legal injunctions prohibiting Kyivstar’s management from providing financial information to Kyivstar’s international auditors and its shareholders, including Telenor. In response to the termination of the last of in all three barring injunctions by a Ukrainian court on 23 November 2007, Kyivstar is now providing Telenor with unaudited financial information. As a consequence of Alfa Group’s continuing collusive litigation in Ukraine and its ongoing boycott of Kyivstar’s board and shareholder meetings in defiance of an international arbitration award and two court orders, Telenor remains unable to consolidate Kyivstar’s financial results.
To restore corporate governance in Kyivstar, Telenor intends to continue its efforts to enforce the arbitration award and court orders against Alfa and its affiliates, including Storm and Altimo. In this respect, Telenor filed on 23 January 2008 a contempt motion with the federal Court in New York against Storm LLC, its two direct owner companies Alpren Ltd. and Hardlake Ltd., and Altimo Holdings and Investments Ltd. At the end of the fourth quarter of 2007, Telenor held 56.52% of the shares in Kyivstar, while the remaining 43.48% were held by Storm, an Alfa affiliate. A hearing of the case was held on 11 March 2008 and the court is expected to rule before the end of May 2008. Kyivstar has been accounted for as an associated company from 29 December 2006 and presented separately as Investment in Kyivstar in the balance sheet up until the fourth quarter of 2007, when the remaining injunction was lifted and Kyivstar resumed its financial reporting to Telenor. From the fourth quarter of 2007 Kyivstar is no longer presented on a separate line, but included in the line Associated companies.
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1 Group Overview Jon Fredrik Baksaas President and CEO
Q1 2008 Continued growth and stable margin
Revenues (NOKm)/EBITDA %
25 271 26 292
• Underlying revenue growth of 7% 34,8 % 35,1 % • Rebounce in Mobile Norway
• Outstanding performance in Kyivstar Q1 07 Q1 08 • 4.3 million net subscriber growth in Asia EBITDA CAPEX
9 230 8 790
5 089 4 487
Q1 07 Q1 08 All figures including Kyivstar EBITDA before other items
4
2 Norway
Ukraine
Pakistan
Thailand
5
Mobile Norway Cost initiatives starting to pay off
Revenues (NOKm)/ EBITDA%
3 355 3 398 3 226 3 172 3 217 3 120
• Underlying retail revenue growth of 5% 40 % 39 % 37 % 36 % 35 % • Tele2 migration completed 31 % • Margin improvement from Q4 2007 driven by reduced market spend Q4 06 Q1 07 Q2 07 Q3 07 Q4 07 Q1 08
• Headcount reductions announced EBITDA CAPEX in March 1 293 1 233 1 249 1 222 1 104 999
402 272 252 239 209 237
Q4 06 Q1 07 Q2 07 Q3 07 Q4 07 Q1 08
6
3 Fixed Norway Underlying EBITDA margin of 36%
Revenues (NOKm)/EBITDA%
3 867 3 856 3 801 3 740 3 791 3 631 • Line loss down to 2003 level • Special items related to 36 % 38 % 38 % – Reversal of leased lines revenue 30 % 34 % 32 %
– Restructuring costs Q4 06 Q1 07 Q2 07 Q3 07 Q4 07 Q1 08
– IT project loss EBITDA CAPEX • Maintained cash flow target of 1 370 1 438 1 417 NOK 3.5 billion in 2008 1 303 1 150 1 167
548 528 478 486 518 394
Q4 06 Q1 07 Q2 07 Q3 07 Q4 07 Q1 08
7
Kyivstar - Ukraine Outstanding performance
Revenues (NOKm)/EBITDA% 3 427 3 183 3 022 3 141 3 093 2 831
• Maintained market share of 43% • 18% ARPU growth due to 60 % 61 % 58 % 60 % increased usage 55 % 55 % • 27% revenue growth in local Q4 06 Q1 07 Q2 07 Q3 07 Q4 07 Q1 08 currency • Operating cash flow of NOK 1.5 EBITDA CAPEX 1 981 billion 1 905 1 864 1 757 1 661 1 687
1 039 1 070
557 526 449 340
Q4 06 Q1 07 Q2 07 Q3 07 Q4 07 Q1 08
8
4 Telenor Pakistan Second largest after three years
Revenues (NOKm)
1042 1000 841 887 • 2.1 million net subscriber growth 686 from Q4 2007 486
• 80% revenue growth in local 17 % 17 % 17 % currency 7 % Q4 06 Q1 07 Q2 07 Q3 07 Q4 07 Q1 08 • Nationwide power situation and inflation putting pressure on opex EBITDA CAPEX • Some planned Q1 capex deferred 1 354
to later quarters 1 013 847 880 742 638
150 167 179 -3 59
-47 Q4 06 Q1 07 Q2 07 Q3 07 Q4 07 Q1 08
9
DTAC - Thailand Continued improvement in traffic balance
Revenues (NOKm)/EBITDA%
2 960 2 999 2 981 2 985 3 036
2 158 • 900k net subscriber growth in Q1 • Clean-up of buffet subscriber base to be completed in Q2 37 % 29 % 29 % 28 % 28 % 32 % • Improved traffic balance increases EBITDA margin Q4 06 Q1 07 Q2 07 Q3 07 Q4 07 Q1 08
• 3G options being considered EBITDA CAPEX
980 872 864 850 795 828 737 717 534 432 428 378
Q4 06 Q1 07 Q2 07 Q3 07 Q4 07 Q1 08
10
5 Sweden
Denmark
Hungary Serbia
Montenegro
Bangladesh
Malaysia
11
Financials Trond Westlie Executive Vice President and CFO
6 Q1 2008 Currency offsetting more than 50% of growth
NOKm 301 702 248 1 116 81 1 265
26 292 25 271
Revenues Asia CEE Nordic Broadcast Other / Currency Revenues Q107 elim. Q108
Revenue growth in Q1 2008 compared to Q1 2007 in fixed currency 13
Q1 2008 Unfavourable currency development
Average FX change Closing FX change Currency from Q1 2007 from Q4 2007
THB -5.7% -10.5%
MYR -7.0% -2.7%
BDT -13.6% -4.6%
HUF -4.9% -1.2%
DKK -2.5% +1.1%
SEK -4.8% +1.3%
PKR -15.8% -7.5%
CSD -5.8% -2.4%
UAH -14.2% -4.9%
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7 Q1 2008 EBITDA increased by 5%
EBITDA (NOKm)/EBITDA% Change in EBITDA (NOKm)
9 483 9 254 9 230 8 831 8 790 257 183 182 8 186 142 88 105 69 62
35 % 35 % 36 % 35 % 9 230 33 % 33 % 8 790 +5%
Q4 06 Q1 07 Q2 07 Q3 07 Q4 07 Q1 08 Q1 07 Norway Fixed Mobile Norwa Grameenphone Denmark DTAC Kyivstar Pakistan Other Q1 08
EBITDA including Kyivstar and before other items.
15
Q1 2008 Mobile capex driven by subscriber growth
Mobile capex/sales Share of mobile capex Share of net subscriber adds 95 %
58 %
21 % 21 % 23 % 10 % 11 % 4 % 0,3 %
Nordic CEE Asia
Underlying growth 0% +13% +18%
Mobile operations only. Kyivstar included 16
8 Q1 2008 Reported P&L
(NOKm) Q1 08 Q1 07 2007
Revenues 23 205 22 446 92 473
EBITDA 7 123 7 035 29 257
EBIT 3 862 3 585 14 985
Associated companies 2 998 386 6 462
Net financials (607) 223 (1 476)
Profit before taxes 6 253 4 194 19 971
Taxes (1 227) (1 258) (2 168)
Net income to Telenor 4 571 2 676 18 016
EPS (NOK) 2.72 1.59 10.72
17
Q1 2008 Continued reduction in net debt
(NOKbn)
1.2 4.4 1.4 0.8 0.8 4.1
7.1
39.9 35.7
E CAP I Share buy Acq Ac Sale E End Q1 08 nd n BI t c E er uis ruals/F TDA Q4 X e o st it f 07 & io Golde ns o tax backs re x n /O ther T el e c om
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9 Outlook for 2008 reiterated
Revenue growth: Around 5%
EBITDA margin: Above 31%
CAPEX/Sales: Around 20%
Outlook on reported figures (excl Kyivstar), assuming Group structure and exchange rates as of 31 March 2008. EBITDA before other items.
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Telenor – First Quarter 2008
10 Telenor – First Quarter 2008
Appendix
Mobile Norway Revenue development
NOKm
+153 -2 -203 0
3 172 3 120
Q107 Subscription Interconnect Other mobile Non-mobile Q108 & traffic
22
11 Fixed Norway Revenue development
NOKm
+43
- 184 -34 -50
3 856 3 681 3 631
Revenue Telephony Broadband Other Revenue Special Revenue Q107 excl special item Q108 item Q108
23
Sweden Focus on own infrastructure
Revenues (NOKm)/EBITDA%
2 569 2 520 2 474 2 473 2 474 2 360
• Continued competitive pressure • Stable mobile revenues and market share 22 % 20 % 22 % 20 % 18 % • Decline in broadband market share 15 %
due to focus on own infrastructure Q4 06 Q1 07 Q2 07 Q3 07 Q4 07 Q1 08 • 23% Mobile EBITDA margin EBITDA CAPEX
537 514 • 19% Fixed EBITDA margin 483 499 454 388 338 329 302 296 264 250
Q4 06 Q1 07 Q2 07 Q3 07 Q4 07 Q1 08
24
12 Denmark Stable margin from previous quarter
Revenues (NOKm)/EBITDA%
1 866 1 864 1 818 1 683 1 667 1 670 • EBITDA margin in line with previous quarter
– Tele2 consolidation 29 % 26 % 27 % 25 % 21 % 21 % – Loss of Debitel contract – Reduced roaming fees Q4 06 Q1 07 Q2 07 Q3 07 Q4 07 Q1 08
– Costs related to new distribution EBITDA CAPEX 489 concept 476 465 435 448 391 386 • Capex related to 3G and HSDPA rollout 311 267 258 216 219
Q4 06 Q1 07 Q2 07 Q3 07 Q4 07 Q1 08
25
Pannon – Hungary Stable subscription revenues
Revenues (NOKm)/EBITDA%
1 647 1 503 1 535 1 541 1 563 1 380
• Net subscriber growth of 24k in Q1 42 % 42 % 41 % 39 % 38 % • Mobile broadband picking up 31 %
• Revenue decline due to reduced Q4 06 Q1 07 Q2 07 Q3 07 Q4 07 Q1 08 interconnect rates from 1 January
• 34% operating cash flow margin EBITDA CAPEX
654 613 601 590597 581 517
145 99 118 107 51
Q4 06 Q1 07 Q2 07 Q3 07 Q4 07 Q1 08
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13 Telenor Serbia Strong margin improvement
Revenues (NOKm)/EBITDA%
804 723 739 669 698 551
• 63k net subscriber additions in Q1 41 % 37 % 38 % 39 % 35 % 34 % • Stable market share of 39%
• 20% EBITDA growth in local currency Q4 06 Q1 07 Q2 07 Q3 07 Q4 07 Q1 08 • Margin improvement driven by lower EBITDA CAPEX handset subsidies • Mobile broadband launch in February 281 279 284 252 267 251 206 167 144 139 114 108
Q4 06 Q1 07 Q2 07 Q3 07 Q4 07 Q1 08
27
Promonte - Montenegro Increased market activities
Revenues (NOKm)/EBITDA% 254
193 165 164 148 151
• Net subscriber growth of 38k in Q1 52 % 44 % 46 % 45 % 35 % • Successful launch of djuice brand 29 % • 11% revenue growth in local currency Q4 06 Q1 07 Q2 07 Q3 07 Q4 07 Q1 08 • Increased costs related to sales and marketing EBITDA CAPEX
132
87 65 70 57 52 48 41 32 29 9 10
Q4 06 Q1 07 Q2 07 Q3 07 Q4 07 Q1 08
28
14 Grameenphone - Bangladesh Weakening purchasing power
Revenues (NOKm)/EBITDA%
1 229 1 152 1 155 1 170 1 145 1 153
• 1.3 million net subscriber growth
in Q1 59 % 53 % 47 % 48 % 47 % • 16% revenue growth in local 36 % currency Q4 06 Q1 07 Q2 07 Q3 07 Q4 07 Q1 08 • Increasing food prices affecting purchasing power EBITDA CAPEX 1 097 921
724683 724 613 540 551 545 418 433 296
Q4 06 Q1 07 Q2 07 Q3 07 Q4 07 Q1 08
29
DiGi - Malaysia Continued strong cash flow
Revenues (NOKm)/EBITDA%
1 934 1 921 1 798 1 849 1 849 1 699 • Net subscription growth of 144k in Q1 2008 48 % 49 % 47 % 47 % 50 % 47 % • Revenue growth of 15% in local currency Q4 06 Q1 07 Q2 07 Q3 07 Q4 07 Q1 08 • Increased price competition in the prepaid segment EBITDA CAPEX
959 909 876 876 870 • 3G rollout and spectrum license to 824 have impact on capex in 2008
513 545
267 179 172 208
Q4 06 Q1 07 Q2 07 Q3 07 Q4 07 Q1 08
30
15 Broadcast Thor 5 takeover completed
Revenues (NOKm)/ EBITDA%
1898 1 922 1776 1763 1655 1700 • Continued positive trend in demand for add-on services
• Sales of conditional access cards in 26 % 22 % 25 % 22 % 20 % Conax doubled compared to Q1 2007 16 % Q4 06 Q1 07 Q2 07 Q3 07 Q4 07 Q1 08 • 22% EBITDA margin excl content rights loss in Denmark 1398
• Capex of NOK 1.2 bn related to EBITDA CAPEX launch of Thor 5 satellite
462 443 419 386 375 359 327 260260 258 281
Q4 06 Q1 07 Q2 07 Q3 07 Q4 07 Q1 08
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Mobile Operations ARPU development (USD)
Mobile Norway Mobile Denmark Mobile Sweden
64,2 62,1 62,8 62,1 59,9 60,9 50,8 49 48,8 47,9 48,6 47,6 47,5 46,8 46,2 45,6 45 47,1
Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2006 2007 2007 2007 2007 2008 2006 2007 2007 2007 2007 2008 2006 2007 2007 2007 2007 2008
Kyivstar Pannon Promonte
28,5 30,9 26,5 8,6 8,4 8,3 8,1 27,9 28,8 28,2 24,7 7,8 27,8 23,0 25,3 21,1 6,8 20,8
Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2006 2007 2007 2007 2007 2008 2006 2007 2007 2007 2007 2008 2006 2007 2007 2007 2007 2008
FX as of 31.03.2008 32
16 Mobile Operations ARPU development (USD)
Telenor Serbia Telenor Pakistan DiGi
4,4 4,5 4,3 4,2 4,2 16,1 4,1 15,4 19,1 14,6 14,7 14,6 18,5 18,1 18,5 18,3 13,8 17,1
Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2006 2007 2007 2007 2007 2008 2006 2007 2007 2007 2007 2008 2006 2007 2007 2007 2007 2008
DTAC Grameenphone
13 12,1 6,3 11,5 11,1 10,6 10,9 5,4 4,9 4,6 4,4 4,2
Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2006 2007 2007 2007 2007 2008 2006 2007 2007 2007 2007 2008
FX as of 31.03.2008 33
Mobile Operations
MoU/APPM development MoU APPM (USD)
Mobile Norway Mobile Denmark Mobile Sweden
211 205 195 197 200 199 205 202 201 197 226 225 193 220 220 187 211 205
0,29 0,30 0,29 0,27 0,28 0,27 0,25 0,25 0,24 0,24 0,24 0,24 0,23 0,23 0,24 0,24 0,23 0,24
Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2006 2007 2007 2007 2007 2008 2006 2007 2007 2007 2007 2008 2006 2007 2007 2007 2007 2008
Kyivstar Pannon Promonte
148 147 163 164 164 134 145 126 130 137 160 123 127 125 159 115 105 153
0,20 0,21 0,21 0,21 0,06 0,06 0,06 0,06 0,19 0,18 0,17 0,18 0,17 0,16 0,17 0,18 0,05 0,05
Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2006 2007 2007 2007 2007 2008 2006 2007 2007 2007 2007 2008 2006 2007 2007 2007 2007 2008 34 FX as of 31.03.2008
17 Mobile Operations
MoU/APPM development MoU APPM (USD)
Telenor Serbia Telenor Pakistan DiGi 199 203 165 163 193 194 154 187 153 173 142 132 87 90 91 85 82 76
0,19 0,18 0,18 0,16 0,16 0,18 0,10 0,10 0,10 0,03 0,03 0,03 0,03 0,03 0,10 0,10 0,09 0,02 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2006 2007 2007 2007 2007 2008 2006 2007 2007 2007 2007 2008 2006 2007 2007 2007 2007 2008
DTAC Grameenphone
261 403 396 252 259 241 245 247 365 368 363 329
0,03 0,02 0,02 0,02 0,02 0,02 0,03 0,03 0,03 0,03 0,03 0,03 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2006 2007 2007 2007 2007 2008 2006 2007 2007 2007 2007 2008 35 FX as of 31.03.2008
Mobile Operations ARPU development (local currency)
Mobile Norway (NOK) Mobile Denmark (DKK) Mobile Sweden (SEK)
320 327 231 316 316 310 230 226 305 218 215 212 302 289 280 283 282 278
Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2006 2007 2007 2007 2007 2008 2006 2007 2007 2007 2007 2008 2006 2007 2007 2007 2007 2008
Kyivstar (UAH) Pannon (HUF) Promonte (EUR)
18 43 42 17 41 40 16 39 5081 15 4729 4631 34 4573 4586 4157 13 13
Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2006 2007 2007 2007 2007 2008 2006 2007 2007 2007 2007 2008 2006 2007 2007 2007 2007 2008
36
18 Mobile Operations ARPU development (local currency)
Telenor Serbia (CSD) Telenor Pakistan (PKR) DiGi (MYR)
277 280 271 261 263 61 254 59 58 59 58 55 836 800 762 765 758 721
Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2006 2007 2007 2007 2007 2008 2006 2007 2007 2007 2007 2008 2006 2007 2007 2007 2007 2008
DTAC (THB) Grameenphone (BDT)
431 408 381 373 361 349 335 345 339 317 300 288
Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2006 2007 2007 2007 2007 2008 2006 2007 2007 2007 2007 2008
37
Mobile Operations
MoU/APPM development MoU APPM (local currency)
Mobile Norway Mobile Denmark Mobile Sweden
211 205 195 197 200 199 205 202 201 197 226 225 193 220 220 187 211 205
1,54 1,45 1,49 1,40 1,48 1,43 1,42 1,38 1,45 1,38 1,17 1,42 1,40 1,13 1,14 1,12 1,09 1,10
Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2006 2007 2007 2007 2007 2008 2006 2007 2007 2007 2007 2008 2006 2007 2007 2007 2007 2008
Kyivstar Pannon Promonte
145 148 147 163 164 164 137 134 130 127 125 160 123 126 159 115 105 153
0,14 0,14 0,13 0,13 0,32 0,29 0,3 0,28 0,27 0,11 0,27 0,11
31,8 29,9 28,8 28,1 28,2 26,1 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2006 2007 2007 2007 2007 2008 2006 2007 2007 2007 2007 2008 2006 200738 2007 2007 2007 2008
19 Mobile Operations
MoU/APPM development MoU APPM (local currency)
Telenor Serbia Telenor Pakistan DiGi 203 165 163 193 194 199 154 153 187 142 173 132
87 90 91 85 82 76 0,32 0,31 0,31 0,31 0,31 0,29
10,03 9,40 9,31 2,05 8,43 9,29 1,95 1,82 1,71 8,26 1,59 1,56
Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2006 2007 2007 2007 2007 2008 2006 2007 2007 2007 2007 2008 2006 2007 2007 2007 2007 2008
DTAC Grameenphone
403 396 261 259 252 245 247 365 368 363 241 329
1,79 1,48 1,38 1,28 1,15 1,11 0,99 1,02 1,01 0,96 0,95 0,95
Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2006 2007 2007 2007 2007 2008 2006 2007 2007 2007 2007 2008 39
Net debt in partly owned subsidiaries
(NOKm) Q1 2008 Q4 2007 Q1 2007
DiGi 50.8% (929) (454) (1 125)
DTAC 65.5% 3 565 4 749 7 027
Grameenphone 62.0% 1 144 1 196 433
EDB Business 51.3% 3 261 1 829 1 826 Partner Kyivstar 56.5% (4 325) (3 424) (831)
40
20