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Analysis of Market Entry Strategies of European Wireless Operators Into Underserved Markets the C Juan VAZQUEZ RUIZ H05571 Research Paper Majeure Finance 2009 Analysis of Market Entry StrateGies of European Wireless Operators Into Underserved Markets The Case of Telenor Research Tutor: Tomasz Michalski Abstract The following paper presents a comprehensive framework for the study and assessment of the economic potential of wireless markets in developing countries. The framework is sequential and recursive, staggered in three stages. The first stage is a macro analysis at the level of the company’s international business model. Its outcome will consist on the assessment of the positive or negative fit of the country’s wireless market within the context of the company’s strategy. The second part of the framework consists on a detailed scrutiny of the country’s telecommunications regulatory conditions, as well as other considerations of nation‐wide purview. The third and final stage of the model will be devoted to a careful study of the market conditions at the local level –the competitive structure of the market, the service mix, the estimation of demand and all other matters involving direct contact with clients will be the focus of this last part of the model. Lastly, the model will be put into practice when analyzing the expansion of the company Telenor into the Indian wireless market. 2 Acknowledgements Many thanks to my tutor, Tomasz Michalski, for his advice and his patience. 3 Table of Contents List of FiGures ...................................................................................................................................................... 6 List of Tables........................................................................................................................................................ 7 Introduction........................................................................................................... 8 Structure of this paper..................................................................................................................................... 9 Chapter 1: Why enter foreign markets? ................................................................10 New Generation Services..............................................................................................................................11 The hunt for new subscribers ....................................................................................................................12 Underserved Markets..................................................................................................................................... 13 Market drivers in underserved markets................................................................................................ 15 Market constraints in Underserved markets....................................................................................... 17 Reviewing local opportunities worldwide............................................................................................ 19 Chapter 2: How to enter foreign markets? ............................................................22 Presentation of framework ......................................................................................................................... 23 The Business Model Level............................................................................................................................26 Corporate Strategies...................................................................................................................................... 27 Financial Considerations.............................................................................................................................. 31 Marketing Strategy......................................................................................................................................... 31 The Operational Model Level......................................................................................................................32 Revenue Expectations.................................................................................................................................... 33 Regulatory Issues............................................................................................................................................. 33 Government Policy .......................................................................................................................................... 34 The Service Model Level ...............................................................................................................................35 Service Mix.......................................................................................................................................................... 36 Demand dynamics........................................................................................................................................... 42 Operations .......................................................................................................................................................... 48 Competition........................................................................................................................................................ 49 Chapter 3: Telenor’s Asian Expansion....................................................................54 Initial forays .......................................................................................................................................................55 Telenor’s Asian business strateGy ............................................................................................................57 Acquisition of Unitech Wireless................................................................................................................. 57 Corporate strategy.......................................................................................................................................... 58 4 Marketing Strategy......................................................................................................................................... 62 The OperatinG Model of the Indian Wireless Market .......................................................................64 The Structure of The Indian Wireless Market.....................................................................................65 Further Research...................................................................................................76 Conclusion ............................................................................................................77 Bibliography .........................................................................................................79 References...........................................................................................................................................................79 Books.....................................................................................................................................................................79 Websites...............................................................................................................................................................80 Other BiblioGraphy..........................................................................................................................................80 Annexes................................................................................................................81 Annex 1: Glossary ............................................................................................................................................81 Annex 2: Telenor..............................................................................................................................................83 Annex 3: Telenor’s expansion timeline ..................................................................................................90 Annex 4: List of 50 larGest countries by population.........................................................................91 Annex 5: Cellular mobile competition in the OECD ..........................................................................92 Annex 6: Number of operators in Service in OECD countries ......................................................93 5 List of Figures FIGURE 1 – EUROPEAN ARPU BY COUNTRY FROM 1997–2000. SOURCE: FROST & SULLIVAN 12 FIGURE 2 – AVERAGE MOBILE PENETRATION RATE IN EUROPE FROM 1997–2000. SOURCE: FROST & SULLIVAN 13 FIGURE 3 – ASIA PACIFIC POPULATION EVOLUTION AND ASIA PACIFIC AND NORTHERN EUROPE POPULATION GROWTH RATES. SOURCE: UNDP DATABASE 17 FIGURE 4 – SKETCH OF BUSINESS FRAMEWORK 24 FIGURE 5 – CLASSIFICATION OF MARKET ENTRY STRATEGIES 30 FIGURE 6 – PROPORTION OF POSTPAID AND PREPAID SUBSCRIBERS BY COUNTRY (ASIA PACIFIC) IN 2004. SOURCE: LIRNEASIA, 2004 40 FIGURE 7 – WIRELESS PENETRATION BY MAJOR REGIONS OF THE WORLD. SOURCE: WIRLESS INTELLIGENCE, 2006 42 FIGURE 8 – ESTIMATION OF MARKET DEMAND 44 FIGURE 9 – MOST FREQUENTLY USED PHONE (% OF BOP TELEUSERS). SOURCE: LIRNEASIA, 2005 46 FIGURE 10 – SKETCH OF A WIRELESS MARKET STRUCTURE 50 FIGURE 11 – RANKING OF WIRELESS CARRIERS BY NUMBER OF SUBSCRIBERS. SOURCE: ANNUAL REPORTS AND INSTITUTIONAL WEBSITES 56 FIGURE 12 – BANGLADESHI WIRELESS MARKET. MARKET SHARES IN 2008 AND PROJECTED GROWTH OF SUBSCRIBER BASE. SOURCE: TELENOR, GRAMEENPHONE, FROST AND SULLIVAN 59 FIGURE 13 – PAKISTANI WIRELESS MARKET.
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