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24769 Cloud Automation Report.qxp_24769 Cloud Automation Report 22/04/2021 15:44 Page 1 Authors: Mark Newman, Chief Analyst Justin Funnell, Contributing Analyst Editor: Dawn Bushaus, Managing Editor April 2021 Sponsors: inform.tmforum.org 24769 Cloud Automation Report.qxp_24769 Cloud Automation Report 22/04/2021 15:44 Page 2 Contents 03 05 08 The big picture Section 1: Global trends in Section 2: Do investors value telco OpEx telco transformation? 14 20 26 Section 3: Inside the OpEx Section 4: Impact of new Section 5: Make it happen – black box – Comparing technology on telco OpEx Strategies for reducing costs expenses 28 Additional features & resources inform.tmforum.org 2 24769 Cloud Automation Report.qxp_24769 Cloud Automation Report 22/04/2021 15:44 Page 3 The big picture Communications service providers (CSPs) have grown comfortable talking to their investors about digital transformation programs, but they have a tough time explaining how transformation will impact their bottom lines. This has made investors cautious about building assumptions into CSPs’ future financial performance. There are three main drivers for telco Key telco operaǎng expenses transformation: delivering a stronger customer experience, generating new revenues and achieving efficiency gains. In this research we are focusing on efficiency gains because they are the ENDUSER EQUIPMENT PEOPLE & CONTENT easiest way for operators to demonstrate SALES & MARKETING Employees’ salaries Handset subsidies & other the benefits of transformation. device/equipment sales Customer service, Temporary/contract retail, adverǎsing staff & consultants Content & revenue sharing Importantly, we have chosen to focus on OpEx rather than CapEx. There is already plenty of research available about the evolution of the network, which makes up the majority of CapEx. However, little information is available about telco OpEx trends, even though operators spend close to $1 billion annually. NETWORK & GENERAL & IT OPERATIONS ADMINISTRATIVE Operaǎon & maintenance ENERGY & SITE OpEx falls into two categories: direct Building rental, of the network Power consumpon office furniture, Internal & customers’ & site rental and indirect costs. Direct costs are supplies, etc. IT infrastructure expenses incurred to provide services, & apps while indirect costs are general expenses to keep the business operating. When it comes to items such as the cost to acquire subscribers – an essential expenditure if operators are to retain or grow market share – it is extremely INTERCARRIER/ REGULATION WHOLESALE NONOPERATING difficult to make meaningful cuts. To Spectrum, franchise, EXPENSES Network sharing, concession, etc. lower OpEx CSPs are more likely to network rental/lease, Finance, depreciaon interconnecon/ & amorzaǎon, tax focus on indirect costs such as network roaming and IT operations or reducing the number of employees and contractors across the organization. TM Forum, 2021 inform.tmforum.org 3 24769 Cloud Automation Report.qxp_24769 Cloud Automation Report 22/04/2021 15:44 Page 4 The big picture In this report, we show the status of Read this report to understand: current telco OpEx through detailed However, it will become analysis of publicly available financial Which categories make up telco OpEx results from five CSPs operating in increasingly difficult for Why CSPs and their investors use Europe, the Middle East and Africa: operators to achieve EBITDA (earnings before interest, BT, MTN South Africa, Ooredoo, taxes, depreciation and Orange and Telenor. We have used year-on-year cost amortization) margins as a key the data published by these savings through performance indicator companies to highlight the most How CSPs have been cutting important categories of OpEx and generalized, costs up to now, and why new show their expenditure in these areas department-by- technology will impact costs in the as a percentage of total revenues and future total OpEx. department budget cuts, particularly companies Which CSPs are cost-cutting leaders Our results reveal that there is plenty How investors feel about CSPs’ of scope for OpEx savings, that have already made efforts to transform, and whether particularly within European CSPs’ large cuts. They will they believe operators can cut businesses. Some companies have costs further already made substantial progress need to embrace new How BT, MTN South Africa, reducing OpEx. Telenor and KPN are technologies like cloud, Ooredoo, Orange and Telenor leading the way, consistently meeting categorize OpEx, and how their and exceeding ambitious cost-savings automation, machine spending compares targets. This has been achieved learning and AI to How much CSPs collectively spent through general belt-tightening on CapEx and OpEx in 2020 across the business rather than reduce OpEx further specific initiatives. How deployment of cloud, AI and and impress investors. automation will impact OpEx inform.tmforum.org 4 24769 Cloud Automation Report.qxp_24769 Cloud Automation Report 22/04/2021 15:44 Page 5 Section 1 Global trends in telco OpEx For the first two thirds of its 30-year history as a dynamic, competitive market, the telecommunications sector was firmly focused on revenue growth rather than operational efficiency. However, over the last 10 years revenue growth has proven elusive, forcing communications service providers (CSPs) to focus increasingly on cost management and, more recently, cost cutting. With customers requiring faster Comparison of selected CSPs’ revenues & OpEx (in US billions) speeds and greater reliability to satisfy 2018 2019 2020 their insatiable demand for Revenue OpEx Revenue OpEx Revenue OpEx connectivity, it has never been an option to reduce investment in the America Movil 49.2 35.2 48.5 33.4 49 32.8 network. Furthermore, investors have AT&T 170.8 114.1 181.3 122 171.8 117.4 rewarded operators that have invested Axiata Group 5.8 3.8 6 3.2 5.9 3.2 early and heavily, be it in deploying Bell Canada 18.6 11.1 19 11 18.2 10.3 fiber or committing to LTE and 5G. Bharti Airtel 11.5 7.4 11.1 7.5 11.4 5 BT 33.1 22.6 32.7 22.4 32 21.6 CSPs have focused on reducing OpEx Charter Communications 43.6 27.6 45.8 28.9 48.1 28.5 rather than CapEx because a large China Mobile 113.5 71 114.9 69.3 117.1 72.8 proportion of CapEx (around 60%- China Telecom 58.1 42 57.9 39.8 60.6 41.7 90%, according to our estimates) is on China Unicom 44.8 31.7 44.7 30.2 46.5 31.9 the network. Furthermore, OpEx is Comcast 94.5 64.3 108.9 74.7 103.6 70.8 two-and-a-half to three times higher Deutsche Telekom 90.3 62.5 96.1 61.9 120.6 73.2 than CapEx, so there is more scope to KDDI 46.4 32.5 46.8 32.3 48.2 32 identify cost-cutting opportunities. Korea Telecom 20.7 16.6 21.5 17.6 21.1 16.7 KPN 6.7 4 6.5 3.8 6.3 3.4 EBITDA margins MTN Group 9 5.7 10.1 5.9 12 7 Comparing trends in OpEx between NTT 108.7 81.2 109.4 81.5 109.6 80.8 operators and identifying year-on-year Orange 49.4 33.9 50.4 35.1 50.5 34.8 trends can be difficult because Rogers Communications 12 7.2 12 7 11.1 6.2 expenses include disposals and SK Telecom 14.9 10.9 15.7 11.2 16.4 11.4 acquisitions which can end up Swisscom 12.6 8.1 12.4 7.7 12 7.3 distorting the overall picture. A better Telefónica 58.1 39.3 57.8 37.5 51.4 34.7 measure of OpEx trends is operators’ Telekom Indonesia 9.1 4.9 9.4 4.9 9.3 4.5 EBITDA (earnings before interest, tax, Telekom Malaysia 2.9 2 2.8 1.9 2.6 1.6 depreciation and amortization) TIM Brasil 3 1.9 3.1 1.9 3.1 1.5 margins. The table opposite shows TMobile US 43.3 30.9 45 31.6 68.4 41.1 annual revenue and operating Verizon 130.9 83.5 131.9 84.7 128.3 79.5 expenses for 30 CSPs from 2018 to Vivo 11.9 7.3 11.2 6.6 8.4 4.9 2020, calculated by subtracting Vodacom 5.8 3.5 5.8 3.6 6.1 3.4 EBITDA from total revenues. Vodafone 65 44.5 61 41.2 62.8 42.6 Total 1,344.30 911.1 1,379.70 920.3 1,412.10 922.6 TM Forum, 2021 inform.tmforum.org 5 24769 Cloud Automation Report.qxp_24769 Cloud Automation Report 22/04/2021 15:44 Page 6 Section 1 Expenses amount to between 48% and degree of caution. The savings of cutting $10 billion in OpEx. While 79% of the operators’ total revenues. achieved in one part of the business Verizon’s financial results show Over the last five years, 14 of the 30 may be wiped out by higher costs in progress, the ride has been bumpy, companies have seen their EBITDA another. This seems to be especially resulting in overall savings so far that margin rise by more than five true in IT and network departments, are only a fraction of the goal. percentage points (and conversely, where operators have made their expenses fall by more than five reasonable progress in delivering Several European CSPs have percentage points). Eleven of the efficiency gains. committed to OpEx cuts in the period companies experienced a rise of zero from 2021 to 2023, and executives to five percentage points in their For example, speaking at an investors’ indicate this will be driven by EBITDA margins. The EBITDA margin conference in January 2021, Verizon digitization.