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Report Authors State of the Markets Inside views on the health and productivity of the innovation economy Second Quarter 2018 State of the Markets: Second Quarter 2018 4 Macro Snapshot: Long-Lived Bull Market 7 IPO Conditions: Value in the Face of Volatility 12 Late Stage: Another Round of Mega-Rounds 17 Global Perspective: Tension Over Tech 22 Special Report: Prepared for a Downturn? State of the Markets 2 State of the Markets: Second Quarter 2018 The Good Times Roll, Even as Risks Rise The bull market powers on, and money continues to flow into the innovation economy. At the same time, we are seeing a reemergence of volatility and a bevy of new risks — including tighter monetary policy and the specter of a trade war — but it’s still status quo for now in the capital markets. Despite market turbulence, the first quarter of 2018 ushered in several high-profile IPOs, and consumer- and enterprise businesses are finding success as public entities. Furthermore, companies reluctant to go down the IPO route found alternative paths. After years of successful fundraising, the world remains awash in capital, and sovereign wealth funds appear poised for even greater contributions. All of these factors are expected to provide further tailwinds for the tech sector. This remains an exciting time for tech around the globe, with some caveats. Innovation companies thrive on open markets, and rich valuations could be undermined by strained geopolitics, wavering consumer confidence and a releveling of investors’ portfolio mix as interest rates rise. While the good times roll, economic cycles don’t last forever, and the trends don’t always point upward. For the moment, however, it’s game on. Bob Blee Head of Corporate Finance State of the Markets 3 Long-Lived Bull Market State of the Markets 4 The Second Longest Bull Market Powers On Since the end of the global financial crisis, equities have been enjoying a nine-year bull run — the second longest since the Second World War. The longest streak was also tech-powered, but ended in the dot-com bust of 2000. Will things end differently this time? Cumulative Return: Longest S&P 500 Market Runs Since 1945 450% 6/13/1949June 1949 – Aug. 1956 Dot-Com Bubble 10/3/1974Oct. 1974 – Nov. 1980 400% 8/12/1982Aug. 1982 – Aug. 1987 10/11/1990Oct. 1990 – Mar. 2000 350% 10/9/2002Oct. 2002 – Oct. 2007 3/9/2009Mar. 2009 – Active 300% Current 250% 200% 150% 100% 50% 0% 00 11 22 33 44 55 66 77 88 99 Duration of Bull Market (Years) Sources: LPL Research, S&P Capital IQ and SVB analysis. State of the Markets 5 Signaling the End of Easy Money Strong economic data suggests that the Federal Reserve will continue raising interest rates. This may allow money managers to capture more attractive yields in less-risky asset classes. Concurrently, its unwinding of $1T in assets will also reduce the availability of capital. Fed Funds Effective Rate: 2010–2020 Fed Balance Sheet (Projected2): 2010–2021 5.0% $4.5T Actual MBS3 Midpoint of Forecasts1 Treasuries 4.5% $4.0T 4.0% Fed Plan $3.5T 3.5% $3.0T 3.0% $2.5T 2.5% $2.0T Without 2.0% Reinvestment $1.5T 1.5% $1.0T 1.0% 0.5% $0.5T Historical Projected 0.0% $0.0T 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 Long 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2009 20112011 20132013 20152015 20172017 20192019 20212021 Run Notes: 1) & 2) Forecasts and projections provided by Federal Open Markets Committee of the Federal Reserve. 3) Mortgage-backed securities. Sources: S&P Capital IQ, Federal Reserve Bank of New York and SVB analysis. State of the Markets 6 Value in the Face of Volatility State of the Markets 7 Spotify Lists, Undeterred by Market Turbulence History confirms that tech companies prefer calm markets for IPOs. But even the recent surge in volatility couldn’t derail Spotify from its nontraditional direct listing. In fact, SPOT experienced milder swings relative to the early trading of SNAP. Volatility (VIX)1 vs. U.S. Venture-Backed Tech IPOs: 2005–1H’182 Early Trading Values vs. Offer Price 80 +80% Snap 60 Spotify +70% 40 +60% 20 +50% 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 ’18 +40% 25 +30% 20 15 +20% 10 +10% 5 Opening First Day Trade Close IPO Price or Reference Value First Trade High Close 1-Week Later 0 1H'05 2H' 05 1H'06 2H' 06 1H'07 2H' 07 1H'08 2H' 08 1H'09 2H' 09 1H'10 2H' 10 1H'11 2H' 11 1H'12 2H' 12 1H'13 2H' 13 1H'14 2H' 14 1H'15 2H' 15 1H'16 2H' 16 1H'17 2H' 17 1H'18 +0% IPO Offer Price/ First Day One Week Reference Price High Later Notes: 1) Volatility presented is implied forward volatility of the S&P 500. 2) 1H’18 IPO count includes six completed IPOs as of 4/20/18 and three upcoming listings. Sources: S&P Capital IQ, PitchBook, Renaissance Capital and SVB analysis. State of the Markets 8 IPOs Don’t Happen Overnight Two decacorn debuts captured Q1 headlines, but their decade-plus journeys illustrate different paths to their current robust valuations. Meanwhile, China’s Xiaomi also boasts a “stale” valuation from years ago, but that could double in its highly anticipated IPO later this year. Valuation Progression from Founding to IPO (Relative to Final Private Round) Xiaomi $100B IPO 2.0x Late 2018 Spotify Dropbox Company Xiaomi Snap +117%1 2006 2007 Year Founded 2010 2010 Spotify $27B Listing 1.5x April 2018 +33% Dropbox $8B IPO Last March 2018 Private1.0x Valuation +20% Snap $20B IPO March 2017 0.5x -3% 0.0x 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 IPO +1 0.2 0.5 0.8 -1.2 -1.5 -2.2 -7.2 -3.2 -5.2 -2.5 -7.5 -1.8 -3.5 -5.5 -8.2 -2.8 -4.2 -7.8 -9.2 -6.2 -3.8 -8.5 -5.8 -4.5 -9.5 -6.5 -0.2 -8.8 -0.5 -4.8 -9.8 -6.8 -0.8 -11.2 -11.5 -11.8 -10.2 -10.5 Years Prior-10.8 to Public Offering Note: 1) Xiaomi IPO value, $100B, based on high end of range as reported by The Wall Street Journal, March 5, 2018. Sources: The Wall Street Journal, S&P Capital IQ, PitchBook and SVB analysis. State of the Markets 9 Both Enterprise and Consumer Find Success Struggling to prove their growth stories, the stocks of Snap and Blue Apron have sunk, dragging down public perception of consumer tech. However, the data shows solid early performances for both enterprise- and consumer-facing businesses can enjoy success relative to private valuations. Market Cap Relative to Last Private Valuation: $1B+ U.S. Tech IPOs from March 2017–March 2018 5.0x Consumer $2.0B1 Enterprise 6.6x LPV2 $4.1B 4.1x LPV 4.0x $5.9B4 3.9x LPV $4.2B 3.6x LPV $3.3B $3.1B 3.0x 3.1x LPV 3.1x LPV $1.9B $1.2B 2.0x 2.3x LPV 2.3x LPV $12.3B $2.2B 1.2x LPV 1.4x LPV 1.0x $19.5B $3.0B 1.0x LPV 0.7x LPV $0.4B 0.0x 0.2x LPV 3 01/17IPO 02/171 03/172 04/173 05/174 06/175 07/176 08/177 09/178 10/179 11/1710 12/1711 01/1812 02/1813 Months Trading Since IPO Notes: 1) Market Cap is as of March 31, 2018. 2) Market cap as of March 31, 2018 relative to the last private valuation available. 3) IPO offer price is the first data point for each company to capture the pop from its first day of trading. 4) MuleSoft announced its sale to Salesforce on March 20, 2018. Sources: S&P Capital IQ, PitchBook and SVB analysis. State of the Markets 10 Public Multiples Bode Well for Venture Deals Valuations for forthcoming private SaaS venture deals continue to closely track their public company counterparts as consensus grows around key business metrics. Growth is still being rewarded: The much higher revenue growth rates for companies within the private transactions set (~60% vs. BVP1 median: ~30%) compensates for the typical illiquidity discount. Enterprise Software Valuations: Revenue Run Rate Multiple2 10.0x 9.0x Median of Next 20 Private Forecast4 Enterprise Software Transactions3 8.0x 7.0x 6.0x 5.0x Median of BVP CloudIndex 4.0x Example: In mid-November 2015, the Public Companies median of the BVP Cloud Index was 6.6x. The next 20 transactions (as captured by 3.0x SVB data) had a median multiple of 7.6x. 2.0x 2015 2016 2017 Q1’18 Notes: 1) More infoformation on BVP Cloud Index at: https://www.bvp.com/strategy/cloud-computing/index. 2) Revenue run rate = Most Recent Quarter’s Revenue x 4. Valuations based on pre-money for private transactions and total enterprise value for public companies. 3) Data based on SVB’s observations of ~120 private market transaction multiples of venture-backed companies with $25M+ in run rate. 4) Forecast based on median premium for private transactions relative to public market multiples. Sources: Bessemer Venture Partners, S&P Capital IQ, SVB proprietary data and SVB analysis. State of the Markets 11 Another Round of Mega-Rounds State of the Markets 12 Private Markets Dominate Traditionally, companies seeking significant capital would accept the added transparency and scrutiny of the public markets.
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