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The Implications of the Strengthening of the Shekel on the Economy, and an Analysis of Policy Tools

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The Implications of the Strengthening of the Shekel on the Economy, and an Analysis of Policy Tools The Knesset Research and Information Centre, Budget Control Department The Implications of the Strengthening of the Shekel on the Economy, And an Analysis of Policy Tools Submitted to the Finance Committee The Knesset Research and Information Center March 19, 2017 Writing: Victor Fatal, Itamar Millard, Economists Kiryat Ben-Gurion, Approval: Ami Zadik, Director of the Budget Control Jerusalem, 91950 Department P h o n e : 0 2 - 6 4 0 8 2 4 0 / 1 Table of contents 1. The Economic Environment ........................................................................................................ 1 1.1. The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) ......................................................................................... 1 1.2. The development of exports and imports .................................................................................. 2 1.3. Rates of participation in the workforce, and rates of unemployment ....................................... 3 2. Balance of Payments and the Trend of the Shekel's Strengthening ......................................... 4 2.1. The balance of payments ........................................................................................................... 4 2.2. The change in the Shekel's exchange rate ................................................................................. 6 2.3. Main implications of the strengthening of the Shekel ........................................................... 7 3. Policy Tools ..................................................................................................................................... 8 3.1. Policy tools that directly affect the exchange rate ................................................................. 8 3.1.1. Foreign currency purchases ............................................................................................... 9 3.1.2. The interest rate in the economy ..................................................................................... 14 3.1.3. The reduction of speculative capital movements ............................................................ 15 3.2. Policy tools that affect the results of the strengthening of the Shekel ................................ 16 3.2.1. Expenditures on Active Labour Market Policies (ALMP) ............................................. 17 3.2.2. The Implementation of structural reforms ...................................................................... 18 3.2.3. Additional tools for influencing the consequences of the Shekel's strengthening .......... 19 This document was prepared at the request of MK Tamar Zandberg, towards a discussion in the Knesset Finance Committee on Mach 21, 2017 on "The strengthening of the Shekel and the implications on the Israeli economy - the policies of the Bank of Israel and the Ministry of Finance". This document will present a description of the economic environment (GDP, exports, imports and the labour market), the change in the rate of the Shekel compared to other currencies, implications of the strengthening of the Shekel, and the policy tools used by the Bank of Israel, including foreign exchange purchases, and the Ministry of Finance. 1. The Economic Environment 1.1. The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Table 1 below provides details on the growth rates of GDP by components, in the years 2011 to 2016 Table 1 - rate of change in the components of GDP for the years 2011-2016 (real terms)1 Private Public Investment in Exports of goods GDP Per Year GDP consumption consumption fixed assets and services capita 2011 3.6% 2.4% 14.9% 9.5% 5.1% 3.1% 2012 2.9% 3.7% 6.6% -1.9% 2.4% 0.5% 2013 3.8% 3.5% 0.3% 3.6% 4.4% 2.4% 2014 4.3% 3.7% 3.5% 1.4% 3.2% 1.2% 2015 4.3% 3.3% 3.0% -4.3% 2.5% 0.5% 2016 6.3% 3.8% 7.2% 3.0% 4.0% 2.0% It emerges from the data in the above table that GDP in the year 2016 increased by 4% compared to the previous year. For the sake of comparison, in the OECD states the GDP increased, on average, by 1.7%. In the comparison of GDP per capita, the gap diminishes in the growth of GDP compared to the OECD due to the higher birth rates in Israel - 2% growth in Israel compared of 1.1% in the OECD. It emerges from the data published by the Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS), based on seasonally adjusted data on the development of GDP by quarters, that in the fourth quarter of 2016 GDP grew by 6.5% based on an annual calculation,2 compared to growth by 3.5% in the first quarter, 5.3% in the second quarter, and 4.1% in the third quarter. Private consumption, whose weight stood in 2016 at around 52% of GDP, was the main growth engine, with a quantitative increase of 6.3%, the highest increase in the period examined. However, the local 1 The Central Bureau of Statistics, notice to the media - Israel's national accounts for the year 2016, Table 1. March 9, 2017. (Unless otherwise indicated, all publications are in Hebrew) 2 A significant part of the growth in the last quarter of 2016 is the result of the enhanced import of motor vehicles. The Knesset Page 1 of 19 Research and Information Center added value of this component is partially offset (since a significant part of private consumption is of imports), and consequently its effect on employment is partial. In public consumption, since 2012 the growth rate remained at a range of 3 to 4 percent. The 3% growth in exports also contributed to the rise in GDP, following a fall of 4.3% in 2015. The weight of exports in GDP was around 31%, and has relatively high domestic added value.3 1.2. The development of exports and imports Chart 1 below presents data for the export and import of goods in the last three years. Chart 1 - Export and import of goods from March 2014 to February 2017 (in billions of Dollars)4 It emerges from the data on the chart that the export of goods fluctuated in recent years between around 3.5 billion Dollars to around 6.6 billion Dollars per month, and that imports fluctuated between around 3.9 billion Dollars to around 6.2 billion Dollars per month. In addition, it emerges that the direction of the changes in the export and import of goods are usually similar in recent years, despite occasional changes in the rate of exchange of the Shekel compared to the Dollar and the Euro (see article 2 below). It is possible to see that in the export of goods there is a decline in mid-2015, followed by stability, while in the import of goods there is a trend of increase in recent years. Similar findings emerge from a study prepared in the Interdisciplinary Centre in Herzliya, in which export and import data were examined over years, and it was found that the directions of change are similar, and that the level of correlation between them is significantly high.5 3 It should be noted that the ratio between exports to GDP can be misleading, since exports are measured as gross income, in other words including imported components, while GDP is measured in terms of added value, in other words with the deduction of the import components. Exports can be measured in terms of added value by deducing the imported components. In such a measurement the rate of exposure of the GDP to a change in exports is lower. 4 The Central Bureau of Statistics, Notice to the media - Israel's Foreign Trade, various months, original data. Accessed: March 19, 2016. 5 The Interdisciplinary Centre Herzliya (IDC), Does the encouragement of Capital Investments Law contribute to the economy and to the society, and achieve its declared goals? Assaf Zimring and Omer Moav, October 2015. The Knesset Page 2 of 19 Research and Information Center 1.3. Rates of participation in the workforce, and rates of unemployment According to the data of the CBS, in the last decade a significant increase took place in the labour market, which manifests itself in the addition of hundreds of thousands new work places, a steep decline in unemployment rates (the rate of those not employed) to an historic low, and a steep rise in the rate of participation in the workforce.6 Chart 2 presents the rates of participation and the rates of unemployment in the labour market as of the age of 15. Chart 2 – Participation and unemployment rates in the labour market (ages 15 and above)7 It emerges from the data on the chart that the rate of participation in the labour market (ages 15 and above) grew from 59.4% in the year 2002 to a level of 64% in January 2017. In addition, the rate of participation of the main working ages, 25-64, reached 80.1% in January 2017, and the rate of unemployment fell to 3.7%.8 It also emerges from the data on the chart that the unemployment rate in the population of working age fell from 11.6% in 2002 to 4.4% in January 2017. These data indicate a significant increase in the labour market in the last decade. 6 The rate of participation in the workforce: the rate of those participating in the labour market (those employed and those not employed, who are actively searching for employment) within the population of working age (ages 15 and over). The rate of unemployed: the rate of those unemployed among the participants in the labour market (employed and unemployed), in other words, whoever is actively searching for employment, but is not employed. The rate of those not employed in this document, is termed "the level of unemployment". However, according to the definition of the National Insurance Institute (NII), an unemployed person is a person, who is not employed, who presents himself as unemployed at the Employment Service Bureau, which submits data to the NII. 7 The Central Bureau of Statistics,
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