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Global Audio Revolution the Music Has Changed

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Global Audio Revolution the Music Has Changed 15 February 2019 Global EQUITIES Global Audio Revolution 40,000 10.0% The music has changed 30,000 5.0% 0.0% 20,000 -5.0% 10,000 -10.0% Key points 0 -15.0% 2007 2015 2006 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2016 2017 2018E 2019E 2020E 2005 The convergence of advertising and consumer direct spend on audio entertainment disrupts broadcast radio in favour of streaming platforms. Recorded music Radio Audiobook But the golden age of recorded music is behind us. Audiobooks and Streamcasts Audio yoy (RHS) podcasts are gaining share, undermining labels’ competitive position. Source: IFPI, Magna, APA, IAB, Macquarie Inside Our top picks are companies building a competitive advantage in the wider audio entertainment space: TME, SPOT and SIRI. Underperform on VIV. Table of contents 3 Exec summary 5 New models in audio entertainment Redefining audio entertainment 16 Recorded music is to audio what films are to video entertainment. It’s premium Freemium convergence 20 content, but it only represents 36% of the total 2018E audio revenues in the US. Streaming revolution 29 OTT is the first technology that brings together all audio content (music, Content-distribution equilibrium disrupted 36 audiobooks and radio/podcasts) on a single distribution platform. And it reunites advertising revenues with consumers’ direct spend (downloads/ subscriptions). Vertical integration appeal/necessity 40 Further disruption comes from a new type of integration achieved by TME (social/ The buoyant Chinese market 42 entertainment ecosystem) and by Amazon (e-commerce/entertainment plus voice Smart speakers and voice platforms 46 platform). Our new global audio entertainment model 50 Streamcasts and audiobooks rise, music slows Regulation 53 We argue our holistic approach allows new investment opportunities: 1) Ad revenues shift from broadcast radio to on-demand streaming - We expect commercial radio advertising to decline as streaming platforms grow into podcasts, the equivalent of unscripted TV shows in parallel with video Analysts content. Spotify recently announced a $400-500m investment envelope for Macquarie Capital (Europe) Limited podcasting content, including the acquisition of Gimlet/Anchor. Giasone Salati +44 20 3037 2670 [email protected] 2) Audiobooks the most interesting growth opportunity - Audiobooks are the Jenny Chen +44 20 3037 5242 equivalent of premium scripted TV shows that have been so successful on [email protected] Netflix, but are mostly overlooked by consensus. Amazon is a leader with its Audible platform. Macquarie Capital Limited Wendy Huang, CFA +852 3922 3378 3) Music slowing, labels’ dominance challenged - We recently lowered our [email protected] revenue growth forecasts for Vivendi’s UMG to 8%, capping EBITA margin improvement to 15%. Global music majors seem to have missed the chance Macquarie Capital (USA) Inc. Amy Yong +1 212 231 2624 to grow into the wider audio space and are losing their bargaining power with [email protected] distributors, in our view. Benjamin Schachter +1 212 231 0644 [email protected] Winners and losers Tim Nollen +1 212 231 0635 Streaming is not just another music technology cycle like CD or iTunes [email protected] downloads. We expect OTT distribution will completely disrupt the current equilibrium and result into a winner-take-all scenario. The business model Macquarie Capital Securities (Japan) Limited Damian Thong, CFA +81 3 3512 7877 innovation we describe is the greatest disruption in the last 100 years of audio [email protected] entertainment and Asian markets are leading with a new diagonal integration model which is little understood by most of the incumbents. Macquarie Securities Korea Limited Kwang Cho +82 2 3705 4953 Our top picks are companies that are consolidating a dominant position across [email protected] the entire audio entertainment spectrum, either globally or at the local level. We have high conviction Outperform ratings on TME, SPOT and SIRI; we have an Macquarie Capital Limited, Taiwan Securities Branch Steven Yang +886 2 2734 7528 underperform rating on VIV (see page 4 and 12-15 for details). [email protected] Please refer to page 74 for important disclosures and analyst certification, or on our website www.macquarie.com/research/disclosures. 15 2019 February ResearchMacquarie Fig 1 Global Music landscape – Content owners and major digital retailers/distributors (2018) Universal Music (Vivendi) Sony Music Warner Music $5,150m (including ~US$1.4bn at Sony Music Music revenues: $6,873m $3,576m Entertainment Japan) % of group revenues 44% 9% 100% Music EBIT margin: 14.1% 16.0% 6.2% Recorded Music: 69%, Music Publishing: 12%, Rec/pub revs split: 85%/ 15% 84%/ 16% Visual Media & Platform: 19% Global share of Recorded: 29.7% 21.9% 16.2% Global share of Publishing: 19.5% 27.3% 12.0% Vivendi (VIV FP) owns 100% (plan to sell Sony (6758 JP) owns 100% of SME and Private (Len Blavatnik's Access Ind. owns Ownership: up to 50% by Dec 2019) SMEJ, ~90% of EMI 100%) Macquarie rating: Underperform (VIV FP) Outperform (6758 JP) n/a Record labels Record Macquarie analyst: Giasone Salati Damian Thong n/a Spotify Apple Music/ iTunes Amazon Prime Music/ Fire YouTube Music (Alphabet) Music revenues: $4,669m $4,618m $1,132m $2,687m % of group revenues 100% 2% 0.5% 2% Geography: Global Global Global Global Free streaming users: 116m none none 1,300m Pay streaming subs: 96m 40m 40m users out of 100m+ Prime subs n/a Premium tier price: $9.99 ($14.99 Family pack) $9.99 ($14.99 Family pack) $99/ year (Amazon Prime) $9.99 ($11.99 for premium access) Other products: Podcasts, TV programme clips Downloads, Online radio, Music videos Free delivery, Prime Video, etc. User generated content, Music videos Ownership: Spotify (SPOT) owns 100% Apple (AAPL US) owns 100% Amazon (AMZN US) owns 100% Alphabet (GOOGL US) owns 100% Macquarie rating: Outperform (SPOT US) Outperform (AAPL US) Outperform (AMZN US) Outperform (GOOGL US) Globaldist. Macquarie analyst: Giasone Salati, Amy Yong Ben Schachter Ben Schachter Ben Schachter Sirius XM Tencent Music Entertainment Netease Cloud Music KaKao Music revenues: $5,425m $2,751m ~$180m $400m % of group revenues 47% 100% ~1.8% 30.0% Geography: US, Canada Asia Mainland China South Korea Free streaming users none 800m+ ~120m (20m+ IDs only 1min free sample songs) Pay streaming subs 33m (satellite radio) 35m (music streaming and social combined) ~4m 4m $15.9/m streaming 0R $10.9-20.9/m sat $2.2/ month for music streaming; $5-75/month Premium tier price: $1.7/ month $10.99/ month radio for social entertainment Downloads, online karaoke, livestreaming, Other products: News, Sports channels Downloads, ads Paid downloads copyright sublicensing Ownership: Public (J. Malone's Liberty Media ~70%) Tencent (700 HK) owns 58% Netease (NTES) owns majority KaKao Corp owns 100% Global Audio Revolution Macquarie rating: Outperform (SIRI US) Outperform (TME US) Outperform (NTES US) n.a. Localdist. Macquarie analyst: Amy Yong Wendy Huang Wendy Huang n.a. *NTES Cloud music revenue, pay streaming subs are on our estimates. TME revenue is our 2018 forecast, free users and streaming subs are based on company released data for Sep 2018. Source: Macquarie Research, Factset, Company data, February 2019 2 Macquarie Research Global Audio Revolution Table of contents Exec summary ................................................................................................................................ 5 Redefining the audio entertainment market .................................................................................... 5 1) Audio entertainment by distribution technology .......................................................................... 6 2) Audio entertainment by content .................................................................................................. 7 3) Audio entertainment by business model: freemium convergence ............................................... 8 The vertical integration dilemma ..................................................................................................... 9 Terms of trade ............................................................................................................................... 10 China the new focus...................................................................................................................... 10 Smart speakers and voice platforms ............................................................................................. 12 Top picks from audio disruption .................................................................................................... 12 Apple ............................................................................................................................................. 13 Amazon ......................................................................................................................................... 14 Sirius XM-Pandora ........................................................................................................................ 14 Sony .............................................................................................................................................. 14 Spotify ........................................................................................................................................... 14 Tencent Music Entertainment ......................................................................................................
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