IMPACT OF DEGRADED FRESHWATER ECOSYSTEMS ON TOURISM TOWARDS 2030

Institute of Natural Resources WRC Webinar 22 September 2020 Water Quality Threatens Eco-tourism: Save our Heritage Tourism is life • Tourism is the backbone of both developed and developing economies

• Rural and urban tourism depend on water (and its quality)

• Ecotourism destinations are increasingly being impacted upon by anthropogenic activities

Water Quality and Tourism

• COVID-19 has highlighted the role tourism has to play in sustaining economies

• The pandemic has also highlighted how reduced human impact can improve water quality of natural water bodies

• Reduced water quality can and will impact tourism Impacts:

• Aesthetic • Ecological • Human, faunal and floral health INTRODUCTION Project overview Objectives (with a specific focus on freshwater ecosystems) • Demonstrate the links between natural capital, tourism and global change and their influence on the development potential of the tourism sector and its contribution to SMME development • Generate recommendations regarding policy and further research needs to promote environmental management and ecological restoration through tourism Activities • Macroeconomic scale - modelled effects of climate change scenarios on direct GDP • Case studies - Ecosystem service supply, demand and risk modelling - Tourist (participant), business & community surveys - Community engagement on tourism, NC & SMME potential - Economic impact scenario modelling MACROECONOMIC ANALYSIS Timeframe / period Before 1994 1994-2000 2001 - 2009 2009 - 2017/ ongoing Apartheid isolationism Early democracy Continued growth phase up to In search of new growth pathways financial crisis Key Tourism potential Nascent democracy, after Consolidation phase up to world Renewed focus on tourism after characteristics (marketing, jobs, foreign the peaceful elections of financial crisis (decrease in domestic financial crisis: The 2010 World Cup’s income, 1994 => an immediate and and foreign tourists), SA seen as a safe increased infrastructure supply; entrepreneurship) dramatic rise in the destination after Sep 11, 2001 terror formally recognised as one of the areas largely ignored by number of visitors to SA. attacks in NY, 2002 International expected to contribute to the government. Drive for rural Tourism Growth Strategy, marketing development of, among others, rural Domestic travel only for development and directed at increasing the number of areas and culture (craft) by growing the white people. transformation (tourism tourists arrivals, increasing spend, economy and creating jobs. seen as an opportunity). increasing length of stay and South Africa continues to be strongly 5.8 M annual foreign promoting geographical spread of perceived as being a destination visitors in 1998 from 3.4 tourists; 2002 saw a boom, with total offering ‘adventurous’ and a ‘natural M in 1994. foreign tourist arrivals growing by an wildlife experience’: with increased unprecedented 11.1% to 6.4 million; focus on business events and meetings, 30 million domestic trips undertaken regional hubs to increase market in 2002 compared to the 33 million in penetration for leisure, and increased 2008. recognition of domestic tourism; 2017 National Tourism Sector Strategy: Aim to make South Africa one of the top 20 global tourism destination by 2020. But purchasing power decreases in SA will affect domestic market + brand SA suffering from political controversies and fear of violence (xenophobia, gender-based violence). Adaptive cycle Quick conservation - reorganisation transition Exploitation / consolidation phase Reorganisation / consolidation phase? SOUTH AFRICAN TOURISM STATISTICS  The tourism sector in South Africa contributes R121 400 million (2.9%) to direct gross domestic product (2016)  One in every 22 working South Africans is employed in the tourism sector.  The number of persons directly engaged with producing goods and services purchased by tourists is 686 596 (2016)  NDT Target - Increase the number of total (direct and indirect) jobs supported by the sector from 1.5 million to 2.2 million by 2026 Climate change scenarios (DEA, 2013) Impacts of different climate change scenarios on tourist spending (as a proxy for tourist numbers)

Changes in tourist spending due to Changes in tourist Tourism economy baseline - different climate spending due to Net tourist spending under direct GDP contribution (R Bn direct GDP 127.9 change scenarios different climate different climate change and in 2016; WTTC 2017) (%) (authors' change scenarios sector growth scenarios (R Bn) assumptions, Table (R Bn) 4-15) Climate Assumed Adjusted Adaptive cycle change annual GDP in 1 Domestic Foreign Domestic Foreign Domestic Foreign Total phase scenarios growth (%) year 1 0% 0% 0.00 0.00 69.63 59.55 129.18 2 Status Conservation / -1% -1% -0.70 -0.60 68.93 58.96 127.89 1.0% 129.17 3 quo consolidation -1% -5% -0.70 -2.98 68.93 56.57 125.51 4 -5% -10% -3.48 -5.96 66.15 53.60 119.74 1 0% 0% 0.00 0.00 72.39 61.91 134.30 2 Exploitation -1% -1% -0.72 -0.62 71.66 61.29 132.95 Growth 5.0% 134.29 3 phase -1% -5% -0.72 -3.10 71.66 58.81 130.48 4 -5% -10% -3.62 -6.19 68.77 55.72 124.48 1 0% 0% 0.00 0.00 65.49 56.01 121.51 2 -1% -1% -0.65 -0.56 64.84 55.45 120.29 Crisis Release / collapse -5.0% 121.50 3 -1% -5% -0.65 -2.80 64.84 53.21 118.05 4 -5% -10% -3.27 -5.60 62.22 50.41 112.63 Direct and indirect GDP impacts of the tourism economy according to different growth and climate change scenarios

Tourism economy baseline - GDP at basic values per R1 million final demand (South Africa) (Quantec 127.9 direct GDP contribution (R Bn direct GDP) database multipliers, 2011; R Bn)

Assumed Direct Climate Economy- Adaptive cycle annual Adjusted GDP Initial First Direct Indirect and Induced change wide phase growth in 1 year Impact Round Impact Effect Indirect Impact scenarios Impact (%) Impact 1 66.02 25.53 91.55 24.88 116.44 31.38 147.82 2 Status Conservation / 65.36 25.27 90.64 24.63 115.27 31.06 146.34 1.0% 129.17 3 quo consolidation 64.14 24.80 88.95 24.17 113.13 30.48 143.61 4 61.20 23.66 84.86 23.06 107.93 29.08 137.02 1 68.63 26.54 95.18 25.87 121.05 32.62 153.67 2 67.95 26.27 94.23 25.61 119.84 32.29 152.13 Growth Exploitation phase 5.0% 134.29 3 66.68 25.79 92.47 25.13 117.61 31.69 149.30 4 63.62 24.60 88.23 23.98 112.21 30.24 142.45 1 62.10 24.01 86.11 23.40 109.52 29.51 139.04 2 61.48 23.77 85.25 23.17 108.42 29.22 137.65 Crisis Release / collapse -5.0% 121.50 3 60.33 23.33 83.66 22.74 106.40 28.67 135.08 4 57.56 22.26 79.82 21.69 101.52 27.36 128.88 Direct and indirect employment impacts of the tourism economy according to different growth and climate change scenarios

Tourism economy baseline - Employment: Total number per R1 million final demand (South Africa) 127.9 direct GDP contribution (R Bn direct GDP) (Quantec database multipliers, 2011; R Bn)

Assumed Direct Climate Economy- Adaptive cycle annual Adjusted GDP Initial First Direct Indirect and Induced change wide phase growth in 1 year Impact Round Impact Effect Indirect Impact scenarios Impact (%) Impact 1 485515 134661 620176 125594 745770 173718 919488 2 Status Conservation / 480660 133315 613975 124338 738312 171981 910293 1.0% 129.17 3 quo consolidation 471707 130832 602539 122022 724560 168778 893338 4 450048 124824 574873 116419 691292 161028 852320 1 504743 139994 644738 130568 775306 180598 955904 2 499696 138595 638291 129262 767552 178792 946345 Growth Exploitation phase 5.0% 134.29 3 490389 136013 626402 126854 753256 175462 928718 4 467872 129768 597640 121030 718669 167405 886075 1 456673 126662 583334 118133 701467 163398 864865 2 452106 125395 577501 116951 694452 161764 856217 Crisis Release / collapse -5.0% 121.50 3 443685 123059 566744 114773 681517 158751 840268 4 423313 117409 540722 109503 650225 151462 801687 Difference in projections between the World Travel & Tourism Council (2017) and this study projections Tourism GDP

Tourism economy baseline - Tourism GDP projections using Quantec 127.9 direct GDP contribution (R Bn) database multiplier, 2011

Net tourist Adjusted net WTTC spend due to tourist spend 2017 direct Climate Assumed Adjusted different Adjusted GDP due to different Adaptive cycle tourism GDP Difference change annual GDP climate in 2030 climate change phase projection for (R Bn) scenarios growth (%) in 1 year change (R Bn) scenarios in 2027 scenarios 2030 (R Bn) (R Bn) (R Bn)

1 129.18 142.69 142.69 128.60 Conservation 2 127.89 142.69 141.26 130.03 Status quo / 1.0% 129.17 271.30 3 125.51 142.69 138.63 132.66 consolidation 4 119.74 142.69 132.27 139.03 1 134.30 218.75 218.75 52.54 2 132.95 218.75 216.56 54.73 Growth Exploitation 5.0% 134.29 271.30 3 130.48 218.75 212.53 58.76 4 124.48 218.75 202.77 68.52 1 121.51 72.75 72.75 198.55 2 Release / 120.29 72.75 72.02 199.27 Crisis -5.0% 121.50 271.30 3 collapse 118.05 72.75 70.68 200.61 4 112.63 72.75 67.43 203.86 Difference in projections between the World Travel & Tourism Council (2017) and this study projections Employment

Tourism economy baseline - Tourism employment projections using Quantec 127.9 direct GDP contribution (R Bn) database multiplier, 2011

WTTC Net tourist Adjusted 2017 direct spend due to Adjusted economy-wide tourism Climate Assumed Adjusted different economy-wide employment Difference Adaptive cycle employment change annual GDP climate GDP impact impact (numbers of phase projections for scenarios growth (%) in 1 year change in 2030 in 2030 employees) 2027 scenarios (R Bn) (number of (number of (R Bn) employees) employees)

1 129.18 163.28 1015687 94313 Conservation 2 127.89 161.65 1005530 104470 Status quo / 1.0% 129.17 1110000 3 125.51 158.64 986801 123199 consolidation 4 119.74 151.35 941491 168509 1 134.30 250.32 1557066 -447066 2 132.95 247.81 1541496 -431496 Growth Exploitation 5.0% 134.29 1110000 3 130.48 243.20 1512783 -402783 4 124.48 232.03 1443323 -333323 1 121.51 83.24 517827 592173 2 Release / 120.29 82.41 512648 597352 Crisis -5.0% 121.50 1110000 3 collapse 118.05 80.88 503100 606900 4 112.63 77.16 480000 630000 The macroeconomic analysis highlights: • It seems that the WTTC assumes constant, significant growth in tourism and travel spending over that period, not considering any extreme events or climate change scenario • Our own modelling results highlight the additional effects of the various climate change scenarios on tourism GDP and employment projects in 2027 • While these results should be interpreted with caution, they emphasise that climate change, characterised by water-related extreme events, can negatively affect any growth pathway for the tourism and travel industries. Their effects would be particularly acute when the tourism spending / sector growth rate is low or negative (i.e. in times of global, regional or national economic crisis) • Scenario modelling: possible futures open for further questioning and debate  Local scale analysis needed CASE STUDIES a. Water-related scenarios and economic impacts on local tourism b. Opportunities and challenges for community-based tourism development Snapshot – Dusi Canoe Marathon

3-day canoeing event, attracting international & local paddlers Estimated direct economic impact: R1.2 to R8.5 million  Depending on the number of paddlers & spectators

River water levels (high) and water quality (good) are key factors in sustaining & attracting paddlers  Ecosystem service modelling – services under pressure especially in lower catchment Respondent: “water quality is a big problem for the Dusi Canoe Marathon, and is the biggest threat to its continuation.” (08-11- 2018).

Drought

Dusi Canoe Marathon participant history (data from KZN Tourism)

Key issues to retaining existing, and attracting new, participants to the sport of canoeing (n=270; KNCU Survey, 2016) Economic impact modelling – Dusi Canoe Marathon

Scenarios 1951 – 1965 1966 to 1999 2000 – 2017 / ongoing Water- Change in Adaptive cycle Tourism related attendance phase (tourism) growth scenarios

1 2% 2 -5% Conservation Organization, mobilization Exploitation, growth Conservation, consolidation Status 3 -25% / 1% quo Cycles of change for the Dusi Canoe Marathon event 4 -50% consolidation 5 25% 1 2% 2 -5% Water-related scenarios Exploitation 3 -25% Growth 5% 1. No significant change in water levels and water quality phase 4 -50% 2. Water quality declines further slightly 5 25% 3. Water quality declines significantly 1 2% 4. Water levels remain at drought levels or decline further 2 -5% 5. Water levels and water quality improve Release / 3 -25% Crisis -5% collapse 4 -50% 5 25% Economic impact modelling – Dusi Canoe Marathon

Scenarios Race participants Water- Change in Adaptive cycle Tourism related 2018 2019 2030 attendance phase (tourism) growth scenarios 1 2% 1028 1423 2 -5% Conservation 958 611 Status 3 -25% / 1% 758 37 quo 4 -50% consolidation 509 0 5 25% 1257 15980 1 2% 1068 2248 2 -5% 998 998 Exploitation 3 -25% Growth 5% 998 798 69 phase 4 -50% 549 1 5 25% 1297 23251 1 2% 968 692 2 -5% 898 282 Release / 3 -25% Crisis -5% 699 14 collapse 4 -50% 449 0 5 25% 1198 8898 Economic impact modelling – Dusi Canoe Marathon

Scenarios Race participants Water- % change Change in Adaptive cycle Tourism related 2018 2019 2030 (2018 - 30) attendance phase (tourism) growth scenarios 1 2% 1028 1423 43% 2 -5% Conservation 958 611 -39% Status 3 -25% / 1% 758 37 -96% quo 4 -50% consolidation 509 0 -100% 5 25% 1257 15980 1501% 1 2% 1068 2248 125% 2 -5% 998 998 0% Exploitation 3 -25% Growth 5% 998 798 69 -93% phase 4 -50% 549 1 -100% 5 25% 1297 23251 2230% 1 2% 968 692 -31% 2 -5% 898 282 -72% Release / 3 -25% Crisis -5% 699 14 -99% collapse 4 -50% 449 0 -100% 5 25% 1198 8898 792% Economic impact modelling – Dusi Canoe Marathon

Scenarios Direct economic impact (R millions) Water- Change in Adaptive cycle Tourism 2018 2019 2030 related attendance phase (tourism) growth scenarios Min Max Min Max Min Max 1 2% 2.13 3.19 2.95 4.42 2 -5% Conservation 1.99 2.97 1.27 1.90 Status 3 -25% / 1% 2.07 3.10 1.57 2.35 0.08 0.12 quo 4 -50% consolidation 1.05 1.58 0.00 0.00 5 25% 2.61 3.90 33.11 49.60 1 2% 2.21 3.31 4.66 6.98 2 -5% 2.07 3.10 2.07 3.10 Exploitation 3 -25% Growth 5% 2.07 3.10 1.65 2.48 0.14 0.21 phase 4 -50% 1.14 1.70 0.00 0.00 5 25% 2.69 4.03 48.18 72.17 1 2% 2.01 3.00 1.43 2.15 2 -5% 1.86 2.79 0.58 0.87 Release / 3 -25% Crisis -5% 2.07 3.10 1.45 2.17 0.03 0.04 collapse 4 -50% 0.93 1.39 0.00 0.00 5 25% 2.48 3.72 18.44 27.62 Opportunities & challenges for local tourism SMMEs

Perceptions among entrepreneurs and rural communities of tourism opportunities and the connections with changes in ecosystem condition

Summary of results of Inanda interviews - Inanda Dam area June 2019

Environmental conditions  Perceptions are that more tourists used to visit the area when the Dam level was fuller, but less seem to come now with lower Dam levels as they think it is less enjoyable.  Uncontrolled development and activities such as sand mining also key challenges.  Control of solid waste pollution has improved slightly but there are still challenges.  Water quality was not highlighted as an issue although it was not deemed fit for drinking. Respondents did recognise that ‘everything depends on water’ and that clean water and a clean environment would help to attract more tourists, which would give the community an incentive to clean up pollution around the Dam. Capacity to develop tourism opportunities  Awareness about tourism potential among the local community is low and there is a need to develop capacity among the youth in particular.  Capacity needed to develop existing tourism opportunities around Inanda Dam such as wedding venues, local trained guides for fishing, cycling, quad bikes.  Capacity development needed to raise awareness about opportunities to provide support services to existing tourism operations. Marketing and finance  Current marketing initiatives are ineffective and enterprises are struggling to market and advertise effectively.  Access to finance and startup capital is a challenge and limits the startup or expansion of tourism enterprises in the Inanda area. Constraints to tourism enterprise development  Community attitudes towards entrepreneurship are negative as the perception is that entrepreneurship / self-employment is not a real or meaningful opportunity, but rather inferior to employment. Most people want formal jobs rather than to start their own enterprises.  Lack of or degraded state of services and infrastructure is a constraint to developing the tourism sector in the Inanda area.  Perceptions of crime in the area are a deterrent for tourists. Community collaboration  Tourism in Inanda can’t work without community support.  Need to ensure positive impact of tourism on community in general e.g. local business opportunities, local shops, financial benefits to other entrepreneurs. Challenges to effective economic and environmental transformation

• Significant need for development and economic transformation • Aquatic ecosystems have potential to support community-based tourism • The existence of this potential is not in itself a catalyst for transformation • There are several constraints that hinder the harnessing of this potential: - Awareness of alternative development pathways - Knowledge and capacity to harness potential for tourism enterprises (tourism literacy) - Access to finance and business support - Connections between ecosystem condition and tourism potential (eco-literacy) CONCLUSIONS

• The National Tourism Sector Strategy (NTSS) needs to formally recognise climate change and freshwater impacts as risks to tourism growth • A comprehensive, integrated tourism socio-economic and ecological strategy and action plan is warranted - Strategically investing in freshwater ecosystems following a “source-to-sea” approach - An extensive programme of capacity building to empower rural and marginalised communities (tourism & eco-literacy) • A multi-stakeholder private-public sector forum or working group (involving at least DSBD, DEFF, DHET, DMR, DWS, NDT) to drive this agenda Project products Six project deliverable reports International Final report

Two project synthesis products

High level concept for a national 2030 Tourism and Natural Capital Working Group Two book chapters - local & international technical audience An oral and a poster presentation at the 8th World Conference on Ecological Restoration (2019) Water Wheel Article - WW Sept-Oct 2020 Local Capacity development

Students Linet Kimathi Nomvula Shakwane Nkosingithandile Sithole Tshegofatso Rahab Makwela Thank-you

Water Research Commission project K5/2620 On behalf of the project team: F Lewis1 J Houdet2 M Browne1 1Institute of Natural Resources, Pietermaritzburg RSA; 2The Biodiversity Footprint company and the Albert Luthuli Centre for Responsible Leadership, University of Pretoria

Acknowledgements Contact The Water Research Commission Fonda Lewis [email protected] The project team Institute of Natural Resources NPC The project reference group 67 St Patricks Road, Scottsville, Pietermaritzburg, 3201 www.inr.org.za +27 (0)33 346 0796

References

Brauman, K.A., Daily, G.C., Duarte, T.K., Mooney, H.A. (2007). The nature and value of ecosystem services: An overview highlighting hydrologic services. Annu. Rev. Environ. Resour. 32, 6.1 - 6.32. Department of Environmental Affairs (DEA) (2013). Long-term adaptation scenarios flagship research programme (LTAS) for South Africa. Climate trends and scenarios for South Africa. Pretoria, South Africa, 69p. Houdet, J., Browne, M. and Lewis, F. (2020). Impact of degraded freshwater ecosystems on tourism towards 2030. WRC Report No. TT 828/20 Pretoria, Water Research Commission. ISBN 978-0-6392-0169-6. Natural Capital Coalition (2016). Natural Capital Protocol. Online at www.naturalcapitalcoalition.org/protocol (accessed 29/10/19).