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IMPACT OF DEGRADED FRESHWATER ECOSYSTEMS ON TOURISM TOWARDS 2030 Institute of Natural Resources WRC Webinar 22 September 2020 Water Quality Threatens Eco-tourism: Save our Heritage Tourism is life • Tourism is the backbone of both developed and developing economies • Rural and urban tourism depend on water (and its quality) • Ecotourism destinations are increasingly being impacted upon by anthropogenic activities Water Quality and Tourism • COVID-19 has highlighted the role tourism has to play in sustaining economies • The pandemic has also highlighted how reduced human impact can improve water quality of natural water bodies • Reduced water quality can and will impact tourism Impacts: • Aesthetic • Ecological • Human, faunal and floral health INTRODUCTION Project overview Objectives (with a specific focus on freshwater ecosystems) • Demonstrate the links between natural capital, tourism and global change and their influence on the development potential of the tourism sector and its contribution to SMME development • Generate recommendations regarding policy and further research needs to promote environmental management and ecological restoration through tourism Activities • Macroeconomic scale - modelled effects of climate change scenarios on direct GDP • Case studies - Ecosystem service supply, demand and risk modelling - Tourist (participant), business & community surveys - Community engagement on tourism, NC & SMME potential - Economic impact scenario modelling MACROECONOMIC ANALYSIS Timeframe / period Before 1994 1994-2000 2001 - 2009 2009 - 2017/ ongoing Apartheid isolationism Early democracy Continued growth phase up to In search of new growth pathways financial crisis Key Tourism potential Nascent democracy, after Consolidation phase up to world Renewed focus on tourism after characteristics (marketing, jobs, foreign the peaceful elections of financial crisis (decrease in domestic financial crisis: The 2010 World Cup’s income, 1994 => an immediate and and foreign tourists), SA seen as a safe increased infrastructure supply; entrepreneurship) dramatic rise in the destination after Sep 11, 2001 terror formally recognised as one of the areas largely ignored by number of visitors to SA. attacks in NY, 2002 International expected to contribute to the government. Drive for rural Tourism Growth Strategy, marketing development of, among others, rural Domestic travel only for development and directed at increasing the number of areas and culture (craft) by growing the white people. transformation (tourism tourists arrivals, increasing spend, economy and creating jobs. seen as an opportunity). increasing length of stay and South Africa continues to be strongly 5.8 M annual foreign promoting geographical spread of perceived as being a destination visitors in 1998 from 3.4 tourists; 2002 saw a boom, with total offering ‘adventurous’ and a ‘natural M in 1994. foreign tourist arrivals growing by an wildlife experience’: with increased unprecedented 11.1% to 6.4 million; focus on business events and meetings, 30 million domestic trips undertaken regional hubs to increase market in 2002 compared to the 33 million in penetration for leisure, and increased 2008. recognition of domestic tourism; 2017 National Tourism Sector Strategy: Aim to make South Africa one of the top 20 global tourism destination by 2020. But purchasing power decreases in SA will affect domestic market + brand SA suffering from political controversies and fear of violence (xenophobia, gender-based violence). Adaptive cycle Quick conservation - reorganisation transition Exploitation / consolidation phase Reorganisation / consolidation phase? SOUTH AFRICAN TOURISM STATISTICS The tourism sector in South Africa contributes R121 400 million (2.9%) to direct gross domestic product (2016) One in every 22 working South Africans is employed in the tourism sector. The number of persons directly engaged with producing goods and services purchased by tourists is 686 596 (2016) NDT Target - Increase the number of total (direct and indirect) jobs supported by the sector from 1.5 million to 2.2 million by 2026 Climate change scenarios (DEA, 2013) Impacts of different climate change scenarios on tourist spending (as a proxy for tourist numbers) Changes in tourist spending due to Changes in tourist Tourism economy baseline - different climate spending due to Net tourist spending under direct GDP contribution (R Bn direct GDP 127.9 change scenarios different climate different climate change and in 2016; WTTC 2017) (%) (authors' change scenarios sector growth scenarios (R Bn) assumptions, Table (R Bn) 4-15) Climate Assumed Adjusted Adaptive cycle change annual GDP in 1 Domestic Foreign Domestic Foreign Domestic Foreign Total phase scenarios growth (%) year 1 0% 0% 0.00 0.00 69.63 59.55 129.18 2 Status Conservation / -1% -1% -0.70 -0.60 68.93 58.96 127.89 1.0% 129.17 3 quo consolidation -1% -5% -0.70 -2.98 68.93 56.57 125.51 4 -5% -10% -3.48 -5.96 66.15 53.60 119.74 1 0% 0% 0.00 0.00 72.39 61.91 134.30 2 Exploitation -1% -1% -0.72 -0.62 71.66 61.29 132.95 Growth 5.0% 134.29 3 phase -1% -5% -0.72 -3.10 71.66 58.81 130.48 4 -5% -10% -3.62 -6.19 68.77 55.72 124.48 1 0% 0% 0.00 0.00 65.49 56.01 121.51 2 -1% -1% -0.65 -0.56 64.84 55.45 120.29 Crisis Release / collapse -5.0% 121.50 3 -1% -5% -0.65 -2.80 64.84 53.21 118.05 4 -5% -10% -3.27 -5.60 62.22 50.41 112.63 Direct and indirect GDP impacts of the tourism economy according to different growth and climate change scenarios Tourism economy baseline - GDP at basic values per R1 million final demand (South Africa) (Quantec 127.9 direct GDP contribution (R Bn direct GDP) database multipliers, 2011; R Bn) Assumed Direct Climate Economy- Adaptive cycle annual Adjusted GDP Initial First Direct Indirect and Induced change wide phase growth in 1 year Impact Round Impact Effect Indirect Impact scenarios Impact (%) Impact 1 66.02 25.53 91.55 24.88 116.44 31.38 147.82 2 Status Conservation / 65.36 25.27 90.64 24.63 115.27 31.06 146.34 1.0% 129.17 3 quo consolidation 64.14 24.80 88.95 24.17 113.13 30.48 143.61 4 61.20 23.66 84.86 23.06 107.93 29.08 137.02 1 68.63 26.54 95.18 25.87 121.05 32.62 153.67 2 67.95 26.27 94.23 25.61 119.84 32.29 152.13 Growth Exploitation phase 5.0% 134.29 3 66.68 25.79 92.47 25.13 117.61 31.69 149.30 4 63.62 24.60 88.23 23.98 112.21 30.24 142.45 1 62.10 24.01 86.11 23.40 109.52 29.51 139.04 2 61.48 23.77 85.25 23.17 108.42 29.22 137.65 Crisis Release / collapse -5.0% 121.50 3 60.33 23.33 83.66 22.74 106.40 28.67 135.08 4 57.56 22.26 79.82 21.69 101.52 27.36 128.88 Direct and indirect employment impacts of the tourism economy according to different growth and climate change scenarios Tourism economy baseline - Employment: Total number per R1 million final demand (South Africa) 127.9 direct GDP contribution (R Bn direct GDP) (Quantec database multipliers, 2011; R Bn) Assumed Direct Climate Economy- Adaptive cycle annual Adjusted GDP Initial First Direct Indirect and Induced change wide phase growth in 1 year Impact Round Impact Effect Indirect Impact scenarios Impact (%) Impact 1 485515 134661 620176 125594 745770 173718 919488 2 Status Conservation / 480660 133315 613975 124338 738312 171981 910293 1.0% 129.17 3 quo consolidation 471707 130832 602539 122022 724560 168778 893338 4 450048 124824 574873 116419 691292 161028 852320 1 504743 139994 644738 130568 775306 180598 955904 2 499696 138595 638291 129262 767552 178792 946345 Growth Exploitation phase 5.0% 134.29 3 490389 136013 626402 126854 753256 175462 928718 4 467872 129768 597640 121030 718669 167405 886075 1 456673 126662 583334 118133 701467 163398 864865 2 452106 125395 577501 116951 694452 161764 856217 Crisis Release / collapse -5.0% 121.50 3 443685 123059 566744 114773 681517 158751 840268 4 423313 117409 540722 109503 650225 151462 801687 Difference in projections between the World Travel & Tourism Council (2017) and this study projections Tourism GDP Tourism economy baseline - Tourism GDP projections using Quantec 127.9 direct GDP contribution (R Bn) database multiplier, 2011 Net tourist Adjusted net WTTC spend due to tourist spend 2017 direct Climate Assumed Adjusted different Adjusted GDP due to different Adaptive cycle tourism GDP Difference change annual GDP climate in 2030 climate change phase projection for (R Bn) scenarios growth (%) in 1 year change (R Bn) scenarios in 2027 scenarios 2030 (R Bn) (R Bn) (R Bn) 1 129.18 142.69 142.69 128.60 Conservation 2 127.89 142.69 141.26 130.03 Status quo / 1.0% 129.17 271.30 3 125.51 142.69 138.63 132.66 consolidation 4 119.74 142.69 132.27 139.03 1 134.30 218.75 218.75 52.54 2 132.95 218.75 216.56 54.73 Growth Exploitation 5.0% 134.29 271.30 3 130.48 218.75 212.53 58.76 4 124.48 218.75 202.77 68.52 1 121.51 72.75 72.75 198.55 2 Release / 120.29 72.75 72.02 199.27 Crisis -5.0% 121.50 271.30 3 collapse 118.05 72.75 70.68 200.61 4 112.63 72.75 67.43 203.86 Difference in projections between the World Travel & Tourism Council (2017) and this study projections Employment Tourism economy baseline - Tourism employment projections using Quantec 127.9 direct GDP contribution (R Bn) database multiplier, 2011 WTTC Net tourist Adjusted 2017 direct spend due to Adjusted economy-wide tourism Climate Assumed Adjusted different economy-wide employment Difference Adaptive cycle employment change annual GDP climate GDP impact impact (numbers of phase projections for scenarios growth (%) in 1 year change in 2030 in 2030 employees) 2027 scenarios (R Bn) (number of (number of (R Bn) employees) employees) 1 129.18 163.28 1015687