Q ED Queen’s Economics Department Working Paper No. 1308 Uncertainty in an Interconnected Financial System, Contagion, and Market Freezes Mei Li Frank Milne University of Guelph Queen’s University Junfeng Qiu Central University of Finance and Economics Department of Economics Queen’s University 94 University Avenue Kingston, Ontario, Canada K7L 3N6 5-2013 Uncertainty in an Interconnected Financial System, Contagion, and Market Freezes Mei Li, Frank Milne, Junfeng Qiu∗ May 13, 2013 Abstract This paper studies contagion and market freezes caused by uncertainty in fi- nancial network structures and provides theoretical guidance for central banks. We establish a formal model to demonstrate that, in a financial system where financial institutions are interconnected, a negative shock to an individual financial institu- tion could spread to other institutions, causing market freezes because of creditors’ uncertainty about the financial network structure. Central bank policies to allevi- ate market freezes and contagion, such as information policy, bailout policy and the lender of last resort policy, are examined. Keywords: Interconnection, Market Freezes, Contagion, Financial Crises JEL Classifications: D82 G2 ∗Mei Li: Department of Economics and Finance, College of Management and Economics, Uni- versity of Guelph, Guelph, Ontario, Canada N1G 2W1. Email:
[email protected]. Frank Milne: Department of Economics, Queen’s University, Kingston, Ontario, Canada K7L 3N6. Email: mil-
[email protected]. Junfeng Qiu: China Economics and Management Academy, Central Uni- versity of Finance and Economics, 39 College South Road, Beijing, China 100081. Email: qiujun-
[email protected]. 1 Introduction An important contagion mechanism emerged in the recent subprime mortgage crisis: with the rapid expansion of credit derivatives, financial institutions are interconnected through an increasingly complicated financial network.