HTR Monthly Report Thoroughbred Handicapping Newsletter June 2004

Brought to you by – KM Software Handicapping Technology and Research

This Month [1] This page

[2] Seminar 2004 Seminar 2004 – Tournament Strategy Session

[3] News and Notes Belmont Stakes - Will Smarty Jones Win the Triple Crown? History of Triple Crown Attempts

[5] Super Trainers Overview and Identification Combined w/ Velocity and K-Rating Claims and Jockeys

[8] HTR2 Upgrade / HTR-Consensus

[9] Special: Complete List of HTR Terms and Abbreviations

[12] Late News

The HTR Monthly Report is converted from a Microsoft Word Document to a .pdf file for viewing with the free Adobe Reader. The newsletter may be viewed while on-line or the file can be downloaded to any computer hard-drive for off-line reading and printing.

Each month, the current edition of the HTR Monthly Report is available on the Internet from our members’ web site only. This is not a free newsletter, it is included as part of a paid subscription to HTR’s monthly download service ($119/mo). Selected articles can be found on the free HTR web site (see back page for web address). The HTR Monthly Report is expected to be available around the 5th of each month.

All proprietary rights to this material belong to KM Software. No portion of this product may be reproduced, copied or transmitted on the Internet without the express written consent of KM Software. All articles and information in this newsletter are written by Ken Massa unless otherwise stated. Test data files are provided with permission from Handicappers Data Warehouse and Equibase Corp. The test results, analysis and opinions found herein are those of KM Software only - Handicappers Data Warehouse and Equibase Corp are not responsible for the written contents of this newsletter and cannot be held accountable for any claims made in it.

KM Software 2004 2 HTR Monthly Report - June 2004

Seminar Update HTR Summer Seminar 2004 in Las Vegas

Pre – Tournament Strategy Seminar and Handicapping Contest During the afternoon after the main seminars we will be holding our tournament strategy workshop along with a handicapping contest that requires skill this time - not random numbers! Here are the details for this 1-hour session that is likely to take place between 3– 4 pm.

• Gold Coast tournament player strategy, advice and discussion. Many of us participated in this contest last year (it was the inaugural event for the Gold Coast) and the experience was enlightening. There are many differences between the Gold Coast format and the traditional win type scoring used by the Orleans. More plays per day (15), additional tracks and win + place mutuels count in the total -- a wide open scramble until the final race is over. One important factor to remember is the premium for payoffs over the cap ($42/$22) – we’ll discuss that significance as well as goals and methods for gathering points during the 3-day tourney.

• HTR handicapping contest with a first prize expected to equal the tournament entry fee of $400. All prizes awarded depend on the total of entry fees. If you are the winner of our event on Wednesday, you can keep the cash or buy yourself an additional entry in the Gold Coast tourney on Thursday. A $400 cash prize is not bad at all for a small group contest - your chances are pretty good from the start. Entry fee: $10 for one entry or $25 for three. Contest rules below.

The $400-added HTR Handicapping Championship on Wed July 14, 2004 (approx 3pm). Player may purchase 1 entry for $10 or 3 for $25. No partnerships please: ‘every man for himself.’ All fees are returned as prize money. First prize is $400 (guaranteed) and the 2nd and 3rd place finishers will split any additional money collected over $400. Cash is awarded to the winners. Contestants will be handicapping 8-10 real races using an HTR2 handout of my choice. These actual races will be unknown to the players as the date/track and horse names will be blanked out, but all the other factors from HTR will still be visible for analysis. Players will have a set amount of time to handicap the entire contest ‘card’ and must turn in their picks before results announced. Gold Coast type format ($2 Win and Place) will be used for the scoring including a cap of $42/$22. ======

• After our little tournament we will reveal the results (known only to me, kept strictly secret) and we will have a lively discussion and analysis of each race. Will be a terrific learning experience and an excellent “front load” before the big one on Thursday. Winners will be verified from the contest entry forms they turned in prior to the award of prize money.

• It is not necessary to be entered in the Gold Coast tournament to attend this class and participate in our contest, but the emphasis will be on methods and strategy preparation for a Win/Place format and a 3-day multi-track tourney. We will touch on any other issues pertinent to tournaments and qualifying for the January championships – your input is welcome and it is a good chance to ask questions with all the experienced HTR players in attendance.

3 HTR Monthly Report - June 2004

The Triple Crown Triple Crown? – Smarty Jones to Make History?

I wrote an article for the June 2003 newsletter prior to Funny Cide attempting the Belmont Stakes and Triple Crown last year. It seems very pertinent again a year later, so I revised it for 2004 as Smarty Jones goes for the glory on Saturday June 5.

Belmont Park - June 1979 Spectacular Bid enters the gate as the 1/9 favorite to win the Belmont Stakes and the Triple Crown after scintillating victories in the Ky Derby and Preakness. It appeared that the 1970's will surely be hailed as horse racing's greatest era; already having produced three Triple Crown winners and now The 'Bid was set to make it a fourth 'Crown and close out the incredible "decade of champions".

But history would not be kind to Spectacular Bid that day. He seemed a cinch to follow in the footsteps of Secretariat, Seattle Slew and Affirmed and claim the most elusive prize in sports. His trainer swore it was a safety pin found in his hoof the morning of the race that ruined his chances. The story is plausible as the awesome gray went on to become a super champion at age-4 and dispelled any doubts about his greatness. Whether or not the safety pin had anything to do with the 1979 Belmont race outcome is less important than the fact the Triple Crown is an accomplishment that requires more than just tremendous talent, class and stamina; it demands a major dose of good fortune too.

Now Smarty Jones faces the daunting task of becoming the first Triple Crown winner in 26 years. He has a mountain of historical negatives to overcome. We are all certainly rooting for him to do it - what a fabulous shot in the arm and good feeling it would be for horse racing after the success of the movie Seabiscuit. Yet betting on Smarty Jones to win the Belmont as an odds-on and lovable crowd favorite is not smart horse wagering. There is ample recent history to dissuade us and to expect disappointment.

I don't enjoy bringing this up. In our heart of hearts we all want Smarty to win the Triple Crown in a cleanly run race. It would be terribly sad if he loses it due to an injury or fluke event as with the Spectacular Bid running. Or worse, if there was an accident such as Charismatic suffered in 1999 that probably cost him a Triple Crown. The two Bob Baffert trained horses that nearly won the Triple in 1997 and 1998 (Silver Charm, Real Quiet) were heavily favored and received ideal trips but were beaten on the square. Looking back, you would have guessed that one of them would have pulled it out. Real Quiet lost by a nose - less than an inch away from $5 million and a place in history. Whatever opinion you hold about Bob Baffert, give him credit; he swallowed that bitter defeat with Real Quiet like a trooper and never whined about it.

In my view, there are only three entrants that can deny Smarty Jones the Triple Crown. The key opponents are Rock Hard Ten, Eddington and Purge. The first two looked all out to get by the tired Lion Heart in the Preakness and they have to improve dramatically and hope that Smarty regresses to get the money. Purge, the recent winner of Belmont’s Peter Pan Stakes is a wild card and might not even run. All of them will have to run a lifetime best and hope for something to go wrong with Smarty. My gut feeling is that Eddington is the best value among the three and I’ll key him if I bet the race at all.

One statistic that stands out for exotic bettors in this year's Belmont Stakes is the need to use Smarty Jones in the exacta and trifecta, even if tossing him from the win position. While we have not had a Triple Crown winner in recent years, history strongly favors an "in-the-money" finish in the Belmont for those horses that have won the Ky Derby and Preakness -- check out the chart on page 4. To bet against Smarty Jones, I will need 10/1 or higher odds on one of the three horses listed above to be tempted. Using Smarty on top in the exotics requires a single key horse in the 2-hole to make any money if he wins – Eddington will be my choice if the odds beckon. 4 HTR Monthly Report - June 2004

News and Notes Smarty Jones Faces the Difficult History of the Triple Crown

The chart below details all the horses that had been victorious with the Derby + Preakness since 1958. Nearly all of these colts were sent to post as the Belmont favorite - and many were odds-on. While I don't have complete records, if memory serves me, about half of the favored Belmont losers were beaten by a horse that had not competed in the Preakness three weeks prior.

Won Ky Derby and Preakness since 1950, what happened in the Belmont?

Year Horse Belmont Finish

1958 Tim Tam 2nd 1961 Carry Back 7th 1964 Northern Dancer 3rd 1966 Kauai King 4th 1968 Forward Pass 2nd 1971 Canonero II 4th 1973 *Secretariat 1st 1977 *Seattle Slew 1st 1978 *Affirmed 1st 1979 Spectacular Bid 3rd (reportedly stepped on safety pin) 1981 Pleasant Colony 3rd 1987 Alysheba 4th 1989 Sunday Silence 2nd (beaten by strong rival Easy Goer) 1997 Silver Charm 2nd 1998 Real Quiet 2nd (lost it by a nose to key rival) 1999 Charismatic 3rd (broke down, but finished) 2002 War Emblem 8th (stumbled badly start) 2003 Funny Cide 3rd (beaten by two powerful rivals)

* Won Triple Crown

The Belmont Record since 1950 - Horses that had won the Derby and Preakness

18 03-05-04-04

Won Triple Crown 16% Made the Exacta 44% Made the Trifecta 74% Made the Superfecta 90%

Analysis From the historical standpoint, Smarty Jones has a low percentage shot to win the Triple. Yet his chances appear far better than most of his predecessors due to the shallow competition and his exceptional fitness. An examination of the list above reveals many Triple Crown disappointments were defeated by a powerful rival; clearly not a factor this time. Smarty Jones also seems to be in remarkable health for a thoroughbred completing a tough campaign and not in danger of “running out of gas” before payday. At 2/5 odds or less, he is a terrible win wager. It is not always necessary to think like an investor though. While there are definitely overlay wagering opportunities in this race, maybe we should ignore the temptation to bet against Smarty Jones and allow destiny to unfold. You just can’t ask for more drama or excitement in horse racing than this. 5 HTR Monthly Report - June 2004

Handicapping with HTR2 Super Trainers – HTR Factors Combined

Last month we discussed the impact “Super Trainers” and how to identify them in HTR2. Here is a review of the issues covered and summary of what we know about these trainers Æ

• Since the year 2000, the “super trainers” have had a major impact on the sport. While few in number, they have high-volume stables with hundreds of horses involved in all levels of racing at every major circuit throughout the US and Canada. They win prolifically and consistently over long periods of time. We can point to Cole Norman as perhaps the original ‘super trainer’ – massive stable size, endless output of live horses, high win percentage that does not abate and thoroughly dominant on whatever circuit he invades.

• We can immediately recognize a ‘super trainer’ in HTR2 software from his trainer rating (Trn) when it reaches 400. The true identification for these trainers is probably a score between 370- 390, but the 400 rating is an unmistakable benchmark. A normal “hot streak” will not sustain the 400+ rating for an entire 365-day period; it is an assembly line of live runners.

• A key attribute of the ‘super trainer’ is the ability to turnaround a newly acquired horse. Stable turnover is constant with claims and drops in class that result in a claim-away. The top trainers are bombarded with accusations of using illegal drug combinations known as ‘cocktails’ – but they deny it and claim their training methods are legal but kept confidential.

• Last month we tested horses with long layoffs (180-days or more). Surprisingly, the ‘super trainers’ have little impact on these runners and the results are usually negative to the bettor no matter who is training. This month we will study several more factors and profitable race situations with the 400+ trainers.

Below I tested all the standard HTR factors with a filter set with the trainer rating (Trn) >= 400. You can do this on your own with the HX4 export now - you will be able to perform this query without using a separate database program in the upcoming Tester due out in July at the seminar.

First let’s look at the overall results when every 400+ trainer is tested on their own.

Trainer 400+ / 1year study all races Factor Plays Win% ROI WP Long%

Trn>=400 16369 24% 0.87 42% 04%

Trn-1 13894 26% 0.89 43% 04% Trn-2 2194 19% 0.78 37% 06%

Analysis Considering the keen awareness of the public toward the ‘super trainer’ the overall results are pretty good for a solo factor with a large sample. The 0.87 ROI and the longshot rate (4%) are very reasonable for a factor that tends to produce a lot of chalk. Sometimes these trainers end up competing against one another; notice how the higher ranked (Trn-1) has a very strong result compared to Trn-2. It’s “dog eat dog” and the top dog usually gets the meat when the super trainers face off in the same race.

On the next couple of pages we’ll look at the common HTR factors in combination with the ‘super trainer’ rating >= 400. Let’s start with the K-rating.

6 HTR Monthly Report - June 2004

Handicapping with HTR2 Super Trainers – HTR Factors Combined

Trainer 400+ and the (K) Rating – 1-Year Study All Races Factor Plays Win% ROI WP Long%

K-1 6648 35% 0.92 55% 01% K-2 3493 23% 0.82 43% 05% K-3 2291 17% 0.81 33% 11% K-4 1594 15% 0.86 28% 21% K-5 0990 13% 0.91 25% 32% K-6,7,8,9* 1367 07% 0.79 14% 58%

K110 4138 39% 0.93 61% 04%

* = combined statistics

Analysis The ‘super trainer’ attribute gives a solid boost to the K-1 with the Win% and ROI. Besides the top-K though, the results are not dramatic as K-2 and K-3 show only slight increases from their normal win rates and the ROI is poor. The overwhelming majority of K-1’s with a trainer rating >= 400 become K110 plays due to the strength of the trainer rating so we are not viewing a clear separation using the 400+ filter with K110. When the ‘super trainer’ sends out a rare K-6 thru 9, the trainer is of little help to the horse and the statistics are severely negative in most cases.

Trainer 400+ and the Velocity Ratings – 1-Year Study All Races Factor Plays Win% ROI WP Long%

FR1-1 2684 31% 0.92 49% 02% FR1-2 2416 28% 0.87 47% 02%

E/P-1 2832 33% 0.95 52% 01% E/P-2 2612 30% 0.95 49% 02%

A/P-1 3234 37% 0.92 56% 01% A/P-2 2753 28% 0.86 49% 01%

S/P-1 2839 34% 0.92 54% 01% S/P-2 2597 30% 0.92 50% 02%

L/P-1 2386 30% 0.90 50% 03% L/P-2 2317 29% 0.91 49% 02%

FR3-1 2362 29% 0.91 48% 02% FR3-2 2248 28% 0.86 48% 02%

VEL-1 3246 36% 0.91 57% 01% VEL-2 2803 29% 0.92 48% 03%

Analysis There is a lot to talk about here. The ‘super trainer’ impact is massive on the velocity factors. I have never tested anything that put almost all the top-2 over the 30% mark and pushed the ROI into the 90’s in nearly every case. E/P (Early Pace – 2nd call velocity rank) has the most dramatic ROI impact with these top-rated trainers and is food for thought with spot-play researchers. The VEL shows the highest increase in win rate, nearly 10% higher than usual. The negative? Longshot win rates take a big dive in all cases. This is due to the obvious stature of the ‘super trainers’ in the eyes of the public and they are bet heavily. 7 HTR Monthly Report - June 2004

Handicapping with HTR2 Super Trainers w/ Claims / Change / Jockey

One characteristic of the ‘super trainer’ (400+ HTR rating) is the uncanny ability to ‘wake up’ a failing horse. These trainers often claim or acquire runners that look terrible on paper and turn them around immediately. That may be the main reason they are suspected of drug use. Let’s look at the facts with horses they have claimed recently Î

Trainer 400+ and a Recent Claim (within last 60 days) Factor Plays Win% ROI WP Long%

Claimed-last out 0988 27% 1.01 48% 07% Claimed two-back 0159 31% 1.05 50% 04% Claimed three-back 0049 35% 1.18 54% 10%

Analysis It’s all good news here and the ‘super trainers’ live up to the hype after acquiring new stock via the claim box. Keep in mind that I restricted this test to the most recent 60-day period; claims that were made prior to 60 days of race entry were not counted in this sample. When the ‘super trainer’ claims a horse they win at double the normal rate for all trainers and the ROI is exceptional. This is a biggie, stay alert to it.

Next let’s take a look at last race trainer change that involves a ‘super trainer’. In other words, the horse has changed hands and has a new trainer rated 400+ now. This includes all the “claimed last out” horses in the test result above, but also involves any other transfer that was made since the horse’s last start.

Change to 400+ Rated Trainer from Last Start Factor Plays Win% ROI WP Long%

New (400+) Trainer Today 3361 24% 0.99 41% 9%

Analysis That is an amazing ROI for a high sample-size angle that has nothing more than the trainer change as a handicapping factor. The rate of longshots is impressive considering the clear public awareness of the ‘super trainer’. This is pretty good evidence that these trainers are indeed pulling off a ‘wake up’ on many runners that look uncompetitive on paper. HTR2 flags a trainer/jockey change using the “#” mark next to the name. Some screens also display a “c” if the change was due to a claim. I have added this to the Program Screen in the latest edition of the software (June 2004). I have adjusted the (+) next to the Trainer Rating in all screens to show the TRN rated 400 or higher for easy identification.

Finally, I tested the Jockey + Super Trainer together. Not surprisingly, the win% is good, but the ROI fails due to high visibility of these horses in the public’s mind. The jockey rating/ranking (Jky) from HTR2 was used in this combination test.

Trainer 400+ and the Jockey Ratings Factor Plays Win% ROI WP Long%

Jky-1 5155 29% 0.83 49% 01% Jky-2 3269 26% 0.85 43% 01% Jky-300+ 8615 27% 0.84 45% 01%

Notes for researchers: The TESTER output will now show TRN >=400 in the upcoming June version so you can test the ‘super trainer’ on your own. For those utilizing the Export function, use nTRN >= 400 in your query. Next month we’ll test the ‘super trainer’ in combination with workout and pedigree ratings.

8 HTR Monthly Report - June 2004

HTR2 Software Upgrade HTR-Consensus Update

I have been tinkering with the HTR-Consensus for quite awhile. The main emphasis was to add the Workout Rating (Wk) into the mix. The dynamic of the entire screen and final consensus scores change considerably when a factor as diverse as the Wk is included. I had to adjust the weightings and scoring scheme. Results have improved for sure. We’ll test it thoroughly in an upcoming newsletter, but you can research it immediately with the Export or Tester (see below).

Improvements to the overall look and effect of the HTR-Consensus have also been made. Let’s look at the factors involved and some of the bonus flags (+) that are present.

There are 9 factors now on the HTR-Consensus. Five of the items (PED, TRN, JKY, WK, C90) are static factors and cannot be changed when the user switches paceline mode or selects running lines. The C90 is unique as it can be blanked if the horse has not run in the last 3-months. The other factors are velocity related (Fr1, EP, Fr3, A/P). The (K) is shown on the screen, but is not used in the initial Consensus scoring as that would be redundant. However, the (K) acts as an overall tie-breaker as well as a point filler when an item shows blank.

Each of the 9 rankings will be shown with a (*) if the horse is ranked-1 and a (+) for bonus points in the Consensus if the factor is associated with something highly positive. A good example of this is the TRN (+) added for any horse that has a 400+ rated trainer. The rank does not effect the (+) and it can be added to any horse regardless of its rank in that factor.

Fr1 (+) awarded if the horse has an “F” running style. EP (+) bonus if the horse is also ranked-1 with Fr2. Fr3 (+) awarded if the horse is also ranked-1 with Lv. A/P (+) bonus when the horse is also ranked-1 with VEL.

C90 (+) shown when the horse is also ranked-1 with last race Cramer figure.

WK (+) when the rating is 85 or higher. PED (+) if the pedigree rating is 450 or higher. TRN (+) when the rating is 400 or more. JKY (+) awarded when the Jky rating is 330 or more

The highest possible score in the new consensus is 99 points. This is nearly impossible achieve as it would require a top ranking in every factor as well all the bonus points. We’ll discuss handicapping with the new consensus screen in the coming months in the newsletter as well as the seminar.

One nice benefit to the new HTR-Consensus is a larger print size due to needing fewer columns for the display. Those of you with blurry eyesight will love it!

Other changes in the June 2004 HTR2 version.

• Trainer rated 400+ is now flagged throughout the program with the (+). Any trainer change is shown on the Program Screen with a “c” (claimed last) or # (change for other reasons).

• Tester and Export reflect the change in the HTR-Consensus rating. Shown in the Test output as HTR-1 and HTR-2; the data fields are nHTR, rHTR in the Export.

• Various minor display errors and bugs fixed throughout the program including the Tester.

Next HTR2 update: July

9 HTR Monthly Report - June 2004

Handicapping with HTR2 HTR2 Terms and Abbreviations Update for 2004

I have several people to thank for the production of this new list. Most notably Mark W. from Las Vegas who designed the structure, font and list design to make it user-friendly and readable in alphabetical order. Mike D. and webmaster Rick also helped with editing as they do each month with the newsletter. I’m in their debt as making a readable detailed accurate listing of all the factors in HTR2 is quite a burden.

The complete PDF version of this glossary will appear on our website in the HTR Library. The version below is missing a few items from the “notes” section which I had to cut to keep the newsletter at 12- pages. Your comments regarding errors or omissions are appreciated.

HTR Glossary of Terms and Symbols Updated June 1, 2004

Terms 1. ACL – The Average Class Level is the average of the last 3 races Strength of Race (SOR) ratings. 2. AG –This abbreviation indicates the age and the sex the horse. i.e. 5g = Five year old gelding. 3. A/P – Average Pace velocity rating/rank, formula depends on route or sprint. Key overall velocity measurement. 4. Att – "Attack" rating on the IMPACT screen for the true turn time. Different measure than traditional “turn time” or Fr2. 5. BL – Beaten Lengths abbreviation. 6. Bo/Bx - Blinkers On / Off. 7. C90 – Best Cramer speed figure the horse has earned in the last 90 days. 8. Ch – A column header listed to note changes in equipment or medication. 9. CLCH – Class change as reflected by subtracting the Strength of Race (SOR) of the horse’s last race and today’s Estimated Performance Rating (EPR). 10. Edif – a unit difference between the fastest first-fraction as determined on the IMPACT screen. 11. EEN or (early) ENERGY – The percentage of energy expended by the horse at second call. Relates the ratio of unrecoverable energy that a horse expends: 2nd call / final fraction. 12. EPR – Estimated Performance Rating is an attempt to accurately predict the strength of today’s race based on the quality of the entrants. This rating is used to replace the static PAR or LEVEL concept. 13. E/P – Early Pace velocity rating/rank from the start of the race to the second call. 14. Eq – Indicates the changes in equipment that the horse may have added or removed since its last race. 15. Esp - On the IMPACT screen this is the rating given to the horses’ effort in the race’s first fraction. 16. Ev - Same as FR1. Column header for "Early". Indicates probable early speed hierarchy in the race. 17. FR1 – The first fraction velocity rating/rank for the horse. This is based on the fully adjusted feet-per- second computations. Key longshot indicator. 18. FR2 – The second fraction velocity rating/rank for the individual horse. This is a fully adjusted feet-per- second velocity rating from 1st call to the 2nd call. Also known as "turn-time". 19. FR3 – The third or final fraction velocity rating/rank. 20. FTS - First Time Starter, first lifetime start. 21. F/X – The average of the first and third fraction velocity rating/rank. 22. GL8 - Number of 'good' races in the last 8 starts. "Good" = defined by William Quirin in his books. 23. Jky – Jockey rating based on overall performance last 365-days. Rating > 350 = a top rider. 24. (K) rating/rank - comprehensive power rating and high-percentage contender selector. 25. Key – Indicates a "key" or highly rated race run in last outing. Found only on the [TLC] screen. 26. LAY – An abbreviation for "Layoff" - the number days since the horse has last raced. 10 HTR Monthly Report - June 2004

27. Live – Update to the Quirin "good" race concept. An indication of the number of efforts in recent starts that the performance was deemed a “solid try”. i.e. 5/9= five solid efforts last 9 starts. 28. L/P – The average of the second and third fraction represented velocity rating/rank. 29. Lv – Same as L/P, used as column header for noting the "Late" rank of the field. 30. Lx, L1, L2 – Lasix indicators; L1 = First time Lasix user; L2 = Second start on Lasix. 31. MLO – An abbreviation for the official track Morning Line Odds. 32. nVEL – See VEL. n= number or rating 33. PAC – A fully adjusted whole number Pace rating based on the second call of the race. 34. PED – Pedigree rating/rank based on sire + dam-sire records at today's distance and surface. 35. PER – Performance rating/rank. A fully adjusted whole number rating based on full race effort in Quirin style format. 36. Post Time – Shown in all screen headers in local time after the user has set the option for time zone. 37. Pn – Program number. The horse’s actual saddlecloth betting number. 38. PP – The assigned post position in the starting gate the horse will break from. 39. Prb – The probability that a specific horse will win today’s race shown as a percentage. 40. Pscan – Performance Scan. Fixed estimate of performance based on last 4 efforts. 41. Qp – Quirin Speed Points the horse has earned from its last four starts – an estimate of early speed potential for today’s race. +8 is the highest rating (horse always goes to the lead) and zero is the low (horse never shows early speed). A blank in this factor indicates insufficient data. 42. Qp% - Quirin speed point percentage. Indicates the percentage of all the Quirin Early Speed Points in today’s race for one horse. 43. QT3 – Quirin Top-3 speed points. The total of the top three horses in today’s field in terms of their Quirin Early Speed Points. Shown in all report headers. A total of 20 or higher may be indicative of pressured early speed. 44. RES - The rating for the stretch call (last 1/8 mile) on the IMPACT screen. 45. RP – Race Position abbreviation and estimate of early race placement. 46. RS – The Running Style of the horse as determined by the HTR program: “F” = Front; “E” = Early; “P” = Pressure or Stalker; “S” = Sustained or mid-pack to rear runner; “R” = rear runner, deep closer. 47. rtg or r – column header for “rating” 48. SOR – Strength of Race, used to rate the quality of a race from a class/performance perspective. 49. S/P – Sustained Pace velocity rating. The average of the E/P and final fraction. 50. Tan –Tandem race indicator (horses that have competed against each other in their last start). 51. T&J – Trainer and Jockey win percentage together, last 365-days. 52. Trl30 – Trainer Last 30-day wins / starts. 53. TRN – Trainer rating based on overall results last 365-days. A rating > 400 = “super trainer”. 54. VBET – Value bet odds line for the individual horse in today’s race based on the probability%. 55. VEL – Overall weighted consensus of the five compounded velocity ratings: E/P, A/P, S/P, F/X, L/P. 56. Vi – Volatility Index ranges from 15-50. The lower the number, the less likely the favorite will win the race and greater the likelihood of a longshot or chaotic outcome. 30-34 is the average range. A high Vi indicates the greater probability that the race will be won by the favorites. The Vi is computed for each race in the top header of all reports. 57. Wgt – Indicates the weight carried by the horse in today’s race. Weight history is shown in the [FIG2] past- performance lines to the far right. 58. Wk or Wks – Workout rating or score. An HTR exclusive that quantifies the work/activity pattern. A rating of 80 or higher is considered good; 85 – 99 reveals excellent pattern of fitness. 59. 1cT, 2cT, FinT – On the Velocity screen, the projected time a horse will run the first/second/final call times based on the velocity ratings and today’s fractional segments. 11 HTR Monthly Report - June 2004

Symbols 1. (#) Primarily used to indicate a change in trainer or jockey from the last race. 2. (*) Generally indicates a top rating in the particular factor or a flag to grab user attention. 3. (+) Strong positive indicator with several meanings depending on the context of the report, generally means an exceptional or high value number. 4. (%) [if not used as standard percentage indicator] - flags a significant class change since the last race. For example, a drop from Allowance to Claiming or Maiden Special to Maiden Claiming. 5. ($) A single longshot indicator - one factor is present that portends a high-priced winner. 6. ($$) A double strength longshot indicator - two or more factors present.

Misc. Screens / Reports / Buttons [BIAS] [Track Bias] - Statistics for track profile, running positions and post-positions. Requires download of the 30day or 1yr Track Profile files.

[Trn] – Comprehensive Trainer Report, requires separate file download. Detailed trainer stats.

[Chart] – Result Chart view. Requires separate download.

[Longshot] [Post-Time] - Prints a list of potential longshot plays for the day in two styles.

[FIG1] [FIG2] – Past performances highlighting speed figures in ‘sheets’ style (low numbers best).

[PPQ] – Displays past-performances with Quirin style Pace and Performance ratings.

[PGM] – Standard facts of the race with various ratings and rankings and sorted by the (K).

[Card] - The entire card with (K)-ranks.

[TLC] - Comprehensive report brings together several reports into 1-page/race report.

[KM] - Quick overview designed to find “live longshots”

[HTR] - Consensus of various diverse rankings.

[VEL] - Detailed look at the feet-per-second pace and velocity ratings.

[PP1] [PP2] - Standard past-performances with fractional info and Cramer speed figs.

[HST] [PED] [T+J] - Reports specific to horse-history, pedigree, trainer + jockey statistics.

Notes • The EPR, SOR, PAC and PER are congruent to each other and based on the "Quirin style" figures. The EPR (estimated performance rating) is found in the top header of every report. The SOR (strength of race) is located in the past-performance screens next to the class description. The PAC (pace rating) and PER (performance rating) are available for every past-performance line in the [PPQ] screen -- the race ratings are shown to the left, the horse's own ratings on the right next to its finish.

• Velocity feet-per-second (fps) ratings such as Fr1 and A/P, and the (K) rating can change according to the PL- mode chosen (see below). This happens because the calculations are based on the selected running lines.

• Velocity calls - Sprint races: Fr1 = 2f; E/P = 4f; Routes: Fr1 = 4f; E/P= 6f

• Rankings: 1= top ranked, usually designated by a (*); 9= lowest or worse rank in field. 12 HTR Monthly Report - June 2004

Late News

HTR2 software update for June will be made available on Monday June 7th. Please read page-8 for more information on the changes.

Please hold off on any custom programming requests until after July 20. I will be spending considerable time preparing for the seminar in the next few weeks. All seminar written materials and summary of the event will be made available to those that cannot attend in Las Vegas. The software update will also be posted for all users as soon as possible after we return.

There will be a regular (July) issue of this newsletter available after the 4th of the July. The August issue will include the seminar information and details.

HTR is a service of –

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Voicemail: 714-366-1HTR Fax: 714-693-3399 Email: [email protected] Free HTR website (software updates): www.homebased2.com/km

HTR Monthly Report is an on-line newsletter and is normally completed at the end of each month, then placed on the HTR member (download) web site. This is not a free publication. Monthly members of HTR can view the newsletter for no charge on-line, Adobe Reader software (free) required. If you are not an HTR download customer, or prefer a printed version mailed to you, a newsletter subscription is available for a $79/year. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.

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