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HTR Monthly Report Thoroughbred Handicapping Newsletter June 2004

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HTR Monthly Report Thoroughbred Handicapping Newsletter June 2004 HTR Monthly Report Thoroughbred Handicapping Newsletter June 2004 Brought to you by – KM Software Handicapping Technology and Research This Month [1] This page [2] Seminar 2004 Seminar 2004 – Tournament Strategy Session [3] News and Notes Belmont Stakes - Will Smarty Jones Win the Triple Crown? History of Triple Crown Attempts [5] Super Trainers Overview and Identification Combined w/ Velocity and K-Rating Claims and Jockeys [8] HTR2 Upgrade / HTR-Consensus [9] Special: Complete List of HTR Terms and Abbreviations [12] Late News The HTR Monthly Report is converted from a Microsoft Word Document to a .pdf file for viewing with the free Adobe Reader. The newsletter may be viewed while on-line or the file can be downloaded to any computer hard-drive for off-line reading and printing. Each month, the current edition of the HTR Monthly Report is available on the Internet from our members’ web site only. This is not a free newsletter, it is included as part of a paid subscription to HTR’s monthly download service ($119/mo). Selected articles can be found on the free HTR web site (see back page for web address). The HTR Monthly Report is expected to be available around the 5th of each month. All proprietary rights to this material belong to KM Software. No portion of this product may be reproduced, copied or transmitted on the Internet without the express written consent of KM Software. All articles and information in this newsletter are written by Ken Massa unless otherwise stated. Test data files are provided with permission from Handicappers Data Warehouse and Equibase Corp. The test results, analysis and opinions found herein are those of KM Software only - Handicappers Data Warehouse and Equibase Corp are not responsible for the written contents of this newsletter and cannot be held accountable for any claims made in it. KM Software 2004 2 HTR Monthly Report - June 2004 Seminar Update HTR Summer Seminar 2004 in Las Vegas Pre – Tournament Strategy Seminar and Handicapping Contest During the afternoon after the main seminars we will be holding our tournament strategy workshop along with a handicapping contest that requires skill this time - not random numbers! Here are the details for this 1-hour session that is likely to take place between 3– 4 pm. • Gold Coast tournament player strategy, advice and discussion. Many of us participated in this contest last year (it was the inaugural event for the Gold Coast) and the experience was enlightening. There are many differences between the Gold Coast format and the traditional win type scoring used by the Orleans. More plays per day (15), additional tracks and win + place mutuels count in the total -- a wide open scramble until the final race is over. One important factor to remember is the premium for payoffs over the cap ($42/$22) – we’ll discuss that significance as well as goals and methods for gathering points during the 3-day tourney. • HTR handicapping contest with a first prize expected to equal the tournament entry fee of $400. All prizes awarded depend on the total of entry fees. If you are the winner of our event on Wednesday, you can keep the cash or buy yourself an additional entry in the Gold Coast tourney on Thursday. A $400 cash prize is not bad at all for a small group contest - your chances are pretty good from the start. Entry fee: $10 for one entry or $25 for three. Contest rules below. The $400-added HTR Handicapping Championship on Wed July 14, 2004 (approx 3pm). Player may purchase 1 entry for $10 or 3 for $25. No partnerships please: ‘every man for himself.’ All fees are returned as prize money. First prize is $400 (guaranteed) and the 2nd and 3rd place finishers will split any additional money collected over $400. Cash is awarded to the winners. Contestants will be handicapping 8-10 real races using an HTR2 handout of my choice. These actual races will be unknown to the players as the date/track and horse names will be blanked out, but all the other factors from HTR will still be visible for analysis. Players will have a set amount of time to handicap the entire contest ‘card’ and must turn in their picks before results announced. Gold Coast type format ($2 Win and Place) will be used for the scoring including a cap of $42/$22. =========================================================================== • After our little tournament we will reveal the results (known only to me, kept strictly secret) and we will have a lively discussion and analysis of each race. Will be a terrific learning experience and an excellent “front load” before the big one on Thursday. Winners will be verified from the contest entry forms they turned in prior to the award of prize money. • It is not necessary to be entered in the Gold Coast tournament to attend this class and participate in our contest, but the emphasis will be on methods and strategy preparation for a Win/Place format and a 3-day multi-track tourney. We will touch on any other issues pertinent to tournaments and qualifying for the January championships – your input is welcome and it is a good chance to ask questions with all the experienced HTR players in attendance. 3 HTR Monthly Report - June 2004 The Triple Crown Triple Crown? – Smarty Jones to Make History? I wrote an article for the June 2003 newsletter prior to Funny Cide attempting the Belmont Stakes and Triple Crown last year. It seems very pertinent again a year later, so I revised it for 2004 as Smarty Jones goes for the glory on Saturday June 5. Belmont Park - June 1979 Spectacular Bid enters the gate as the 1/9 favorite to win the Belmont Stakes and the Triple Crown after scintillating victories in the Ky Derby and Preakness. It appeared that the 1970's will surely be hailed as horse racing's greatest era; already having produced three Triple Crown winners and now The 'Bid was set to make it a fourth 'Crown and close out the incredible "decade of champions". But history would not be kind to Spectacular Bid that day. He seemed a cinch to follow in the footsteps of Secretariat, Seattle Slew and Affirmed and claim the most elusive prize in sports. His trainer swore it was a safety pin found in his hoof the morning of the race that ruined his chances. The story is plausible as the awesome gray went on to become a super champion at age-4 and dispelled any doubts about his greatness. Whether or not the safety pin had anything to do with the 1979 Belmont race outcome is less important than the fact the Triple Crown is an accomplishment that requires more than just tremendous talent, class and stamina; it demands a major dose of good fortune too. Now Smarty Jones faces the daunting task of becoming the first Triple Crown winner in 26 years. He has a mountain of historical negatives to overcome. We are all certainly rooting for him to do it - what a fabulous shot in the arm and good feeling it would be for horse racing after the success of the movie Seabiscuit. Yet betting on Smarty Jones to win the Belmont as an odds-on and lovable crowd favorite is not smart horse wagering. There is ample recent history to dissuade us and to expect disappointment. I don't enjoy bringing this up. In our heart of hearts we all want Smarty to win the Triple Crown in a cleanly run race. It would be terribly sad if he loses it due to an injury or fluke event as with the Spectacular Bid running. Or worse, if there was an accident such as Charismatic suffered in 1999 that probably cost him a Triple Crown. The two Bob Baffert trained horses that nearly won the Triple in 1997 and 1998 (Silver Charm, Real Quiet) were heavily favored and received ideal trips but were beaten on the square. Looking back, you would have guessed that one of them would have pulled it out. Real Quiet lost by a nose - less than an inch away from $5 million and a place in history. Whatever opinion you hold about Bob Baffert, give him credit; he swallowed that bitter defeat with Real Quiet like a trooper and never whined about it. In my view, there are only three entrants that can deny Smarty Jones the Triple Crown. The key opponents are Rock Hard Ten, Eddington and Purge. The first two looked all out to get by the tired Lion Heart in the Preakness and they have to improve dramatically and hope that Smarty regresses to get the money. Purge, the recent winner of Belmont’s Peter Pan Stakes is a wild card and might not even run. All of them will have to run a lifetime best and hope for something to go wrong with Smarty. My gut feeling is that Eddington is the best value among the three and I’ll key him if I bet the race at all. One statistic that stands out for exotic bettors in this year's Belmont Stakes is the need to use Smarty Jones in the exacta and trifecta, even if tossing him from the win position. While we have not had a Triple Crown winner in recent years, history strongly favors an "in-the-money" finish in the Belmont for those horses that have won the Ky Derby and Preakness -- check out the chart on page 4. To bet against Smarty Jones, I will need 10/1 or higher odds on one of the three horses listed above to be tempted.
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