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Different Glacier Status with Atmospheric Circulations in Tibetan Plateau and Surroundings

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Different Glacier Status with Atmospheric Circulations in Tibetan Plateau and Surroundings LETTERS PUBLISHED ONLINE: 15 JULY 2012 | DOI: 10.1038/NCLIMATE1580 Different glacier status with atmospheric circulations in Tibetan Plateau and surroundings Tandong Yao1,2*, Lonnie Thompson1,3, Wei Yang1, Wusheng Yu1, Yang Gao1, Xuejun Guo1, Xiaoxin Yang1, Keqin Duan1,2, Huabiao Zhao1, Baiqing Xu1, Jiancheng Pu2, Anxin Lu1,2, Yang Xiang1, Dambaru B. Kattel1 and Daniel Joswiak1 3,000 The Tibetan Plateau and surroundings contain the largest 3,200 1 3,400 number of glaciers outside the polar regions . These glaciers 45° N 3,600 3,800 are at the headwaters of many prominent Asian rivers and 3,800 2 4,000 4,000 are largely experiencing shrinkage , which affects the water 4,400 3,4 4,200 discharge of large rivers such as the Indus . The resulting 40° N 5,6 potential geohazards merit a comprehensive study of glacier 4,800 5,100 5,000 5,200 5,200 5,400 status in the Tibetan Plateau and surroundings. Here we 5,500 5,300 4,600 5,200 5,600 4,700 report on the glacier status over the past 30 years by ° 5,000 35 N 5,700 4,800 4,800 5,90 0 5 5,400 ,8 4,900 investigating the glacial retreat of 82 glaciers, area reduction 0 0 0 0 0 Latitude 5,8 of 7,090 glaciers and mass-balance change of 15 glaciers. 5,60 5,000 Systematic differences in glacier status are apparent from 30° N region to region, with the most intensive shrinkage in the 4,800 5,000 5,000 4,600 Himalayas (excluding the Karakorum) characterized by the ELA (m a.s.l.) 4,400 Westerlies greatest reduction in glacial length and area and the most 25° N Indian monsoon negative mass balance. The shrinkage generally decreases East Asian monsoon from the Himalayas to the continental interior and is the least in the eastern Pamir, characterized by the least glacial retreat, 70° E75° E80° E85° E 90° E95° E 100° E area reduction and positive mass balance. In addition to rising Longitude temperature, decreased precipitation in the Himalayas and increasing precipitation in the eastern Pamir accompanied by Figure 1 j Distribution of glaciers and ELAs in and around the TBP11, which different atmospheric circulation patterns is probably driving are mainly under the dominance of the Indian monsoon and westerlies, these systematic differences. with limited influence from the East Asian monsoon. Note the increased Although some glaciological studies have been done in the glacier concentration and lower ELAs in the monsoon-dominated Tibetan Plateau (TBP) and surroundings7–15, a region with a total southeastern TBP and the westerlies-dominated Pamir regions, compared glacial area of ∼100,000 km2 (Supplementary Table S1), the recent with the sparse glacial distribution and high ELAs in the controversies7,16,17 concerning glacial shrinkage in the Himalayas continental-climate-dominated interior. emphasize the necessity for a more comprehensive study. In addi- tion, more concrete in situ observation data will help to recheck the Present atmospheric circulation patterns over the TBP and results of a positive glacial mass balance of ∼7 Gt yr−1 in Tibet and surroundings are characterized by the Indian monsoon in the Qilian Shan, which might be from uncertainty or misinterpretation summer and the westerlies in the winter (Fig. 1). These two of Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment data7. circulation systems, combined with the huge topographic landform, Under the progresses of the Third Pole Environment exert climatic controls on the distribution of existing glaciers. programme18, an integrated assessment of glacier status in and The East Asian monsoon also influences glaciers on the eastern around the TBP over the past 30 years can now be provided. Data margin, such as the Mingya Gongga and those in the eastern for this assessment come from studying the glacial area reduction Qilian Mountains. The interior of the TBP is less influenced by the of 7,090 glaciers, with an area of approximately 13,363:5 km2 in the Indian monsoon and westerlies and dominated more by continental 1970s and approximately 12,130:7 km2 in the 2000s (with a <5% climatic conditions. As shown in Fig. 1, the high concentration and uncertainty; see Supplementary Information) using topographic low equilibrium line altitudes (ELAs) of glaciers in the southeastern maps and satellite images from Landsat-MSS/TM/ETM+, ASTER TBP and the eastern Pamir regions result from high precipitation and LISS (Supplementary Tables S2 and S3 and Figs S1 and S2). from the Indian monsoon and westerlies, respectively, whereas Eighty-two glaciers were also studied for glacial retreat using in more sparse glacier distribution and higher ELAs in the continental- situ observations and previous studies (Supplementary Table S4) climate-dominated interior are the consequences of limited water- and 15 glaciers have undergone intensive study of glacial mass vapour source from both these air masses. balance by in situ measurement (Supplementary Tables S5 and To systematically and comprehensively assess glacier status in S6 and Figs S3–S15). and around the TBP, we divided glaciers into seven regions, 1Key Laboratory of Tibetan Environmental Changes and Land Surface Processes, Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China, 2State Key Laboratory of Cryosphere Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China, 3Byrd Polar Research Center and School of Earth Sciences, Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio 43210, USA. *e-mail: [email protected]. NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE j ADVANCE ONLINE PUBLICATION j www.nature.com/natureclimatechange 1 © 2012 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved. LETTERS NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE DOI: 10.1038/NCLIMATE1580 ab 40° N VII 40° N VII V V ¬0.9 ¬4.2 ¬0.07 ¬0.29 VI VI 35° N 35° N IV ¬2.0 IV ¬0.10 II II Latitude Latitude 30° N ¬16.6 ¬16.3 I 30° N ¬0.42 ¬0.20 I Retreat Advance III ¬1 III (m yr¬1) (m yr¬1) ¬48.2 Area change rate (% yr ) ¬0.57 0¬4.10 1.60¬4.40 ¬6.3 0¬0.09 ¬0.41 4.10¬13.3 4.40¬11.2 0.09¬0.17 13.3¬28.2 11.2¬16.3 0.17¬0.32 25° N 28.2¬56.1 16.3¬37.0 25° N 0.32¬0.54 56.1¬80.6 37.0¬82.0 0.54¬0.95 75° E80° E85° E90° E 95° E 100° E 75° E80° E85° E90° E95° E 100° E Longitude Longitude c d 2,000 40° N 0 Qiyi VII Muztag Ata V ¬2,000 ~ ¬450 ~ +250 ¬4,000 Parlung No. 10 Parlung No. 12 Kangwure VI ¬6,000 Parlung No. 94 Naimona'nyi ° Parlung No. 390 Muztag Ata 35 N Gurenhekou Xiaodongkemadi ¬8,000 Xiaodongkemadi Cumulative mass Zhongxi IV balance (mm w.e.) Qiyi Hamtah ~ ¬550 ¬10,000 Chhota Shigri II 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Zhangxi Latitude Naimona'nyi Parlung glaciers Year 30° N ~ ¬910 ~ ¬400 Gurenhekou I Kangwure III e 2,000 Mass balance (mm w.e.) Yala ~ ¬1,100 0¬300 ~ ¬760 AX 010 0 300¬550 550¬800 ¬2,000 800¬1,000 25° N ¬4,000 1,000¬1,700 ¬6,000 Qiyi 75° E80° E85° E90° E95° E 100° E ¬8,000 Kangwure Cumulative mass balance (mm w.e.) Xiaodongkemadi Longitude ¬10,000 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Year Figure 2 j Spatial and temporal patterns of glacier status in the TBP and surroundings. a, Glacier retreat for 82 glaciers (Supplementary Table S4). b, Area reduction for 7,090 glaciers (Supplementary Tables S2 and S3 and Fig. S1). c, Mass balance for 15 glaciers (Supplementary Table S5). Glaciers are categorized into seven regions and marked clockwise with Roman numerals in a–c. d, Cumulative mass balance for 11 glaciers in 2006–2010 (Supplementary Table S6 and Figs S3–S13). e, Cumulative mass balance for the three longest time series of glacier mass-balance measurements along transect 1 (Supplementary Table S7 and Figs S14 and S15). indicated clockwise as I–VII in Fig. 2. This classification allows Mass balance is a direct and reliable indicator of glacier status. for an ideal geographic representation of glaciers in the TBP and More than 20 glaciers have been measured for mass balance in surroundings, with one region each in the northeast and northwest, the TBP and surroundings, but only 15 have been measured over two in the centre and three in the Himalayas (southeastern TBP, three consecutive years (Supplementary Tables S5 and S6 and central Himalayas and western Himalayas), which is the focus of Figs S3–S13). Figure 2c shows the spatial pattern of the average many of the recent debates on glacier melt rates7,16,17. The seven annual mass balance of these 15 glaciers in the seven regions regions can also be categorized climatically into three transects: along the three transects. Similar to the variations in glacial transect 1, southwest–northeast oriented (including regions III, length and area, the most negative mass balances occur along the II, VI and VII), with the weakening Indian monsoon influence Himalayas (transect 3), ranging from −1,100 to −760 mm yr−1 with northward; transect 2, southeast–northwest oriented (including an average of −930 mm yr−1. Along transect 2, the mass balance regions I, II and V), with the weakening Indian monsoon towards is not so negative, ranging from −1,100 mm yr−1 in region I to the interior and the strengthening westerlies towards the northwest; −400 mm yr−1 in region II, then becoming positive in region VII and transect 3, along the Himalayas (including regions I, III and IV), (C250 mm yr−1).
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