PHOTO CREDIT: BRIAN KIRCHHOFF (NORC) IMPACT EVALUATION OF USAID/CAMBODIA COUNTERING TRAFFICKING IN PERSONS (CTIP) PROGRAM FINAL REPORT Prepared under Contract No. GS-10F-0033M / Order No. AID-OAA-M-13-00013, Tasking N040 DISCLAIMER This publication was produced for review by the United States Agency for International Development. It was prepared by NORC at the University of Chicago. The authors’ views expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of the United States Agency for International Development or the United States Government. DRG LEARNING, EVALUATION, AND RESEARCH (DRG-LER) ACTIVITY IMPACT EVALUATION OF USAID/CAMBODIA COUNTERING TRAFFICKING IN PERSONS (CTIP) PROGRAM FINAL REPORT September 2020 Contract No. GS-10F-0033M/AID-OAA-M-13-00013 Tasking N040 Submitted to: Brandy Witthoft, COR Submitted by: Roy Ahn, NORC Project Director Ali Protik, NORC Principal Investigator Brian Kirchhoff, NORC Survey Director Phoebe Bui, NORC Research Analyst Contractor: NORC at the University of Chicago Attention: Renee Hendley, Program Manager Bethesda, MD 20814 Tel: 301634-9489 E-mail: [email protected] Suggested Citation: Ahn, R., A. Protik, B. Kirchhoff, and P. Bui. (2020) Impact Evaluation USAID/Cambodia Countering Trafficking in Person (CTIP) Program: Final Report. Washington, DC: USAID Democracy, Human Rights, and Governance Learning, Evaluation, and Research (DRG-LER) Activity. DISCLAIMER The authors’ views expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of the United States Agency for International Development or the United States Government. CONTRACT No. GS-10F-0033M / ORDER No. AID-OAA-M-13-00013, DRG-LER, TASKING N040 TABLE OF CONTENTS ACRONYMS III EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1 EVALUATION DESIGN 1 KEY FINDINGS 2 RECOMMENDATION FOR FUTURE CTIP PROGRAMMING 2 1. INTRODUCTION 4 2. BACKGROUND AND INTERVENTION DESCRIPTION 5 WINROCK’S TRAFFICKING PREVENTION PROGRAMS 6 THEORY OF CHANGE 8 3. EXPERIMENTAL IMPACT EVALUATION DESIGN 10 RESEARCH DESIGN 10 RANDOM ASSIGNMENT PROCESS 11 HYPOTHESES 12 4. SAMPLING AND DATA COLLECTION 13 ORIGINAL SAMPLING PLAN 13 CHANGES IN IMPLEMENTATION PLANS AND DEVIATIONS FROM ORIGINAL SAMPLING DESIGN 14 REVISED DESIGN AND ENDLINE DATA COLLECTION 17 5. DATA ANALYSIS 20 RESEARCH QUESTIONS AND OUTCOME MEASURES 20 IMPACT ANALYSIS METHODOLOGY 21 QUALITATIVE ANALYSIS METHODOLOGY 23 6. FINDINGS 25 DESCRIPTIVE CHARACTERISTICS OF THE SURVEY SAMPLE 25 IMPACTS ON ARP KNOWLEDGE 27 IMPACTS ON ARP ATTITUDES ABOUT HUMAN TRAFFICKING 30 IMPACTS ON ARP PRACTICES 33 IMPACTS ON ECONOMIC OUTCOMES 34 QUALITATIVE ANALYSIS 38 8. CONCLUSIONS 44 SUMMARY OF KEY FINDINGS 44 IMPLEMENTATION CHALLENGES AND LIMITATIONS OF THE EVALUATION 45 RECOMMENDATIONS FOR FUTURE USAID CTIP PROGRAMMING AND EVALUATION 46 APPENDIX A: LIST OF COMMUNES BY TREATMENT STATUS 48 APPENDIX B: DATA COLLECTION DETAILS 53 APPENDIX C: QUALITATIVE ANALYSIS DETAILS 58 APPENDIX D: ENDLINE SURVEY INSTRUMENT 63 APPENDIX E: ADDITIONAL BONG PHEAK INFORMATION 77 USAID.GOV IMPACT EVALUATION OF USAID/CAMBODIA CTIP ACTIVITY – FINAL REPORT | i CONTRACT No. GS-10F-0033M / ORDER No. AID-OAA-M-13-00013, DRG-LER, TASKING N040 LIST OF TABLES Table 1. Programs Received by Treatment 2 (T2) Beneficiaries 16 Table 2. Outcome Indicators by Domain 21 Table 3. Demographic Characteristics of ARP Household Heads 25 Table 4. Characteristics of ARP Households 26 Table 5. ARP Demographic Characteristics 27 Table 6. Regression Results for Outcomes in Knowledge about Employment Opportunities 28 Table 7. Descriptive Results on ARP Knowledge of Information Resources for Domestic Employment (percentages) 29 Table 8. Descriptive Results on ARP Knowledge of Information Resources for International Employment (percentages) 30 Table 9. Regression Results for Outcomes in Attitudes about Trafficking Risk 31 Table 10. Regression Results for ARP Willingness to Migrate for a Paid Job 33 Table 11. Regression Results for Outcomes in the Practice Domain 34 Table 12. Regression Results for ARP’s Employment and Income 35 Table 13. ARP Occupation Breakdown (percentages), by Treatment Status 36 Table 14. Regression Results for ARPs’ Savings 37 Table 15. Regression Results for Economic Outcomes of ARP Households 38 Table C.1. Qualitative Interview Topic Guide 59 Table C.2. Qualitative Analysis Code Frame 60 LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1. Theory of Change for USAID/Cambodia Countering Trafficking In Person Program 9 Figure 2. Cluster Random Assignment Process 11 Figure 3. Age Distribution of Beneficiaries by Treatment Status 15 USAID.GOV IMPACT EVALUATION OF USAID/CAMBODIA CTIP ACTIVITY – FINAL REPORT | ii CONTRACT No. GS-10F-0033M / ORDER No. AID-OAA-M-13-00013, DRG-LER, TASKING N040 ACRONYMS ARP At-Risk Person CSO Civil Society Organization CTIP Countering Trafficking in Persons DRG-LER Democracy, Human Rights, and Governance Learning, Evaluation, and Research Activity ILO International Labor Organization IR Intermediate Results IP Implementing Partner IT Information Technology ITT Intent-to-treat MDES Minimum Detectable Effect Size M&E Monitoring and Evaluation NEA National Employment Agency (Cambodian government) NORC National Opinion Research Center PCA Principal Components Analysis RGC Royal Government of Cambodia TIP Report Trafficking in Persons Report SMS Short Message Service (text messaging using standard communication protocols) USAID United States Agency for International Development USAID.GOV IMPACT EVALUATION OF USAID/CAMBODIA CTIP ACTIVITY – FINAL REPORT | iii CONTRACT No. GS-10F-0033M / ORDER No. AID-OAA-M-13-00013, DRG-LER, TASKING N040 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This report presents the findings from an impact evaluation of the USAID/Cambodia Countering Trafficking in Persons (CTIP) Program conducted by NORC at the University of Chicago (“NORC”). The program aimed to disrupt trafficking in person (TIP) patterns by offering diversified, climate-resilient livelihood pathways that reduce dependence on seasonal agriculture and by educating vulnerable individuals on unsafe migration. NORC conducted this study in partnership with USAID’s Center of Excellence on Democracy, Human Rights, and Governance (DRG), USAID/Cambodia, and Winrock International (hereafter “Winrock”), CTIP’s implementing partner. Based on discussions with counter-trafficking stakeholders, Winrock implemented two interventions. The first was the livelihoods package intervention (hereafter “Treatment 1”) that connected at-risk persons (ARPs) for trafficking to legitimate employers and trained ARPs in “soft skills” to help them retain their jobs. To that end, Winrock and its partner, Open Institute, developed an internet-based job- matching platform called Bong Pheak to inform low-skilled migrants about job opportunities and also offered workplace professionalism trainings that included modules on types of employment and how to find job information. The second intervention (hereafter “Treatment 2”) added a customized bundle of activities to the first intervention, by offering technical assistance to ARPs (e.g., animal raising trainings, savings groups) based on commune-specific needs. EVALUATION DESIGN The evaluation employed a mixed-method design, combining qualitative key informant interviews with a rigorous RCT design involving random assignment of 28 communes to receive Treatment 1 and 19 communes to receive Treatment 2. Twenty-eight communes were also randomly selected to serve as the business-as-usual control group. The evaluation collected quantitative data on ARPs and ARP households using a survey of 2,665 at-risk households and qualitative information from interviews with project implementation staff and program beneficiaries. The evaluation was designed to focus on ARPs between ages 18 and 39, both because they form a large share of the working-age population who could benefit the most from the type of intervention implemented by Winrock, and also because they are the most at risk for being labor-trafficked. The original research design was to randomly select households at the baseline, screen ARPs, and then follow them to endline as part of a panel survey. We collected baseline data in October 2016 using a streamlined selection protocol to identify the most at-risk member within each randomly selected household. However due to a significant delay in funding and the suspension of CTIP activities until June 2018, new beneficiaries needed to be selected to replace respondents who could not be located or refused assistance. During this time, Winrock made substantial changes to the ARP screening process. Because we did not have the baseline information for the beneficiaries selected using the new screening protocol, we revised our sampling and analysis plan in March 2019 to use cross-sectional data from endline only to estimate impacts. The lack of availability of baseline values for individual outcomes results in a lack of precision for estimated impacts. In order to supplement the results of the impact analysis and gain a better understanding of the program implementation and perspective of beneficiaries, we conducted in-depth interviews with six Winrock staff members and 10 program beneficiaries who either declined to participate in or dropped out of activities. USAID.GOV IMPACT EVALUATION OF USAID/CAMBODIA CTIP ACTIVITY – FINAL REPORT | 1 CONTRACT No. GS-10F-0033M / ORDER No. AID-OAA-M-13-00013, DRG-LER, TASKING N040 KEY FINDINGS The interventions (Treatment 1 and Treatment 2) had mixed results on the main knowledge, attitude, practice and economic outcomes of interest: • Both interventions were successful