UPDATE ON CONFLICT AND DIPLOMACY

16 NOVEMBER 2011–15 FEBRUARY 2012

COMPILED BY MICHELE K. ESPOSITO

The Quarterly Update is a summary of bilateral, multilateral, regional, and international events affecting the Palestinians and the future of the peace process. More than 100 print, wire, television, and online sources providing U.S., Israeli, Arab, and international independent and government coverage of unfolding events are surveyed to compile the Quarterly Update. The most relevant sources are cited in JPS’s Chronology section, which tracks events day by day.

Highlights of the Quarter: Jordan hosts Israeli-Palestinian “exploratory talks,” Abbas tem- porarily suspends the Palestinian statehood bid at the UN, and Fatah take limited steps to implement the May 2011 national reconciliation agreement, the 2d half of the Shalit prisoner release takes place, U.S. presidential candidates urge support for while the Obama administration puts its diplomatic efforts on hold for elections, Israel considers early elections in fall 2012, international sanctions and support for a preemptive strike on Iran escalate, Hamas leaves Damascus as Syria descends into civil war, Egypt holds its 1st elections since the Arab Spring, Saleh leaves Yemen.

THE PALESTINIAN-ISRAELI Hamas, Islamic Jihad, and the Popu- CONFLICT lar Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP). As of 11/15, at least 7,886 Pales- This quarter, the Palestinians agreed tinians (including 51 Israeli Arabs and to suspend their drive for UN recogni- 19 unidenti!ed Arab cross-border in!l- tion of statehood for a brief period to trators), 1,113 Israelis (including 354 IDF give the Quartet another chance to bro- soldiers and security personnel, 226 set- ker mutual understandings on the base- tlers, and 533 civilians), and 66 foreign lines for !nal status talks necessary for nationals (including 2 British suicide reviving serious negotiations. Though bombers) had been killed since the start Jordan made the signi!cant gesture of of the al-Aqsa intifada on 9/28/2000. hosting the Israeli-Palestinian “explor- atory talks,” in the absence of bridging The U.S.-Led Quartet Drive to proposals or guarantees by the inter- Restart Talks national community, no progress was Last quarter, Palestine submitted its made toward closing the gaps between much anticipated application for full UN the sides. The failure left Palestinian member-state status at the UN General pres. Mahmud Abbas at quarter’s close Assembly (UNGA) session on 9/23/11. poised to revive both the statehood ef- Hours later, in a last-ditch U.S.-led effort fort and reconciliation efforts with to preempt the application’s consider- Hamas. ation, the Quartet proposed a timetable Meanwhile, conditions on the ground for Israel and the Palestinians to re- remained unchanged. Israel maintained turn to negotiations. The idea was that its tight siege on the Hamas-controlled if the sides were discussing even ba- Gaza Strip, severely restricting its econ- sic procedural elements, the UN could omy and undermining quality of life. In be persuaded to delay consideration of the Fatah-controlled , Israeli the application to give the sides time to restrictions and Israel Defense Forces reach a settlement themselves, without (IDF) military operations remained rela- international interference (see Quarterly tively low, with the focus on containing Update [QU] in JPS 162 for background).

Journal of Palestine Studies Vol. XLI, No. 3 (Spring 2012), pp. 169–204, ISSN: 0377-919X; electronic ISSN: 1533-8614. © 2012 by the Institute for Palestine Studies. All rights reserved. Please direct all requests for permission to photocopy or reproduce article content through the University of California Press’s Rights and Permissions website, at http://www.ucpressjournals.com/reprintInfo.asp. DOI: jps.2012.XLI.3.169.

JPS4103_12_Quarterly Updated.indd 169 07/06/12 4:40 PM 170 JOURNAL OF PALESTINE STUDIES

The vague Quartet timetable called on 1 precondition with another, and (2) Ab- the sides to: (1) begin preliminary dis- bas was unclear about whether the deal cussions within 1 month on resuming would result in preparatory talks only formal talks; (2) produce “comprehen- or direct negotiations between Abbas sive proposals” on borders and security and Netanyahu. Palestinian and U.S. of- (i.e., restart substantive negotiations) !cials declined to con!rm or comment. within 3 months thereafter; and (3) Of note: On 11/21, Burns was in Is- reach a !nal status agreement within 1 rael, King Abdallah of Jordan made a year. When the sides made no move to sudden, unannounced visit to Ramallah start preliminary talks by 10/23/11, the (his 1st in 10 years) with the stated pur- 1-month deadline, Quartet reps. traveled pose of brie!ng Abbas on Jordan’s inde- to the region to meet (10/26) with the pendent efforts to reconcile with Hamas negotiating teams separately and called and informing him personally that Jor- on them to submit their borders and dan had invited Mishal (barred from security proposals by 1/26/12. The Pal- Jordan since 1999) for an of!cial visit to estinians held fast to their longstanding Amman (see “Jordan” below). A week demand that Israel cease all settlement later, on 11/28, King Abdallah hosted expansion in the West Bank and East Je- Israeli pres. Shimon Peres in Amman rusalem before and during negotiations, to discuss reviving Israeli-Palestinian arguing that Israel’s ongoing settlement talks. No details of either meeting were construction predetermined !nal bor- released and no breakthroughs were ders. Israel rejected the Palestinian de- reported. mand as an unacceptable “precondition” With the stalemate continuing, Quar- to resuming talks. tet reps. returned (12/13–14) to the re- As of the opening of the quarter in gion to press the Israeli and Palestinian mid-11/2011, the sides had yet to make negotiating teams in Jerusalem and Ra- any move to meet. Instead, in absence mallah once again. No success was re- of serious peace diplomacy, Palestinian ported, and Palestinian sources noted Authority (PA) pres. Abbas and Hamas (New York Times [NYT] 12/14) “a grow- leader Khalid Mishal agreed to meet in ing disconnect between the Quartet Cairo on 11/24 to discuss implement- talks and the situation on the ground,” ing their suspended 5/2011 national but did not elaborate. reconciliation agreement as an alterna- tive way forward (see “National Recon- Subtle Changes Alter the Prospects ciliation” below). Before the meeting for Talks could take place, the U.S. dispatched Though Quartet diplomacy went no- Dep. Secy. of State William Burns to where, by mid-12/2011 several devel- the region to press Abbas (11/20) and opments had unfolded that were seen Israeli PM (11/21) (particularly by the U.S.) as improving to return to the table and to warn Ab- conditions for resuming peace talks. bas against forming a unity government Most notably, ever since winning full with Hamas. Anonymous U.S. of!cials membership in UNESCO on 11/1/11 said that Burns sought to eliminate Pal- (see QU in JPS 162), Abbas made no ef- estinian demands for a settlement freeze fort to press the statehood issue at the as an obstacle to reviving talks, but UN, either by urging quick consider- gave no details. Anonymous Israeli of!- ation of Palestine’s application or by cials later claimed (Ha’Aretz 12/28) that seeking membership in other UN bodies Burns placed heavy pressure on Ab- or international organizations. Second, bas to scale back his settlement freeze Abbas’s 11/24 meeting with Mishal in demand and that Abbas had offered to Cairo, while deemed positive and pro- drop it altogether if Israel would release ductive by the leaders, resulted in little 100 Palestinian prisoners jailed since substantive movement toward imple- before the Oslo process began in addi- menting the 5/2011 national unity deal tion to the 550 yet to be released under (see “National Reconciliation” below). In the Shalit prisoner exchange (see “Stage light of these 2 points, Israel gave in to 2 of the Shalit Prisoner Swap Is Imple- heavy U.S. and international pressure to mented” below). They said Israel had re- restore (11/30) the transfer of VAT taxes jected the offer because: (1) it replaced collected on the PA’s behalf, which it

JPS4103_12_Quarterly Updated.indd 170 07/06/12 4:40 PM UPDATE ON CONFLICT AND DIPLOMACY 171

had suspended on 11/1 to punish the attend out of respect for Jordan. Observ- Palestinians for winning UNESCO mem- ers noted (NYT 1/4) that the planned bership. Lastly, Israel completed the 2d meeting was highly unpopular with stage of the Shalit prisoner release, free- Palestinians in the territories, who saw ing mostly West Bank Fatah cadres as it as caving in to Israeli and U.S. pres- a gesture to Abbas (see “Stage 2 of the sure. Acknowledging the criticism, Ab- Shalit Prisoner Swap Is Implemented” bas vowed (1/3, reiterated 1/19) that in below). the absence of serious progress by 1/26, At base, however, neither side he would take “harsh measures against seemed to have changed its funda- Israel,” including reviving the Palestin- mental positions: Abbas stressed (ca. ians’ UN statehood bid. 11/28) that he remained committed to On 1/3, Israeli and Palestinian ne- the statehood initiative. Israel warned gotiators met with Quartet reps. (in- (11/30) that VAT transfers could be sus- cluding special envoy Tony Blair) and pended again if Abbas moved toward then with Jordanian FM Nasser Judeh. reconciliation with Hamas or revived Afterward, Judeh stated that the Pal- statehood efforts. A Netanyahu aide estinian team had turned over its po- acknowledged (11/23) that threatening sition papers on security and borders to bankrupt the Palestinian Authority as requested, and that the Israeli team (PA), thus jeopardizing the salaries of a had formally received them. The sides third of the Palestinian population and agreed to hold talks “on a continual ba- the PA’s ability to provide basic ser- sis” in Jordan and to observe a media vices, was intended “to in"uence Pal- blackout, with only Judeh issuing pub- estinian decision making.” On 12/28, lic statements after the sessions (this with 2 of the 3 months intended for was ignored by all the parties almost preparatory talks having passed unpro- immediately). Israel did not submit its ductively, an Israeli of!cial expressed own comprehensive position papers, (Ha’Aretz 12/28) Israel’s concern that if but pledged “that through this continu- talks did not resume by 1/26/12, Abbas ing dialogue there will be an Israeli would revive and aggressively pursue counterproposal or an Israeli response.” the quest for membership in all UN or- Israeli DM Ehud Barak later stated (1/5) ganizations, possibly leading to a new that the Palestinian package was “unac- crisis. ceptable in its present state. . . . Long negotiations await us.” Jordan Hosts Israeli-Palestinian Through the end of the quarter, 4 “Exploratory Talks” additional rounds of talks were held in With the Quartet’s self-imposed 1/26 Amman (1/9, 1/15, 1/21, and 1/25). The deadline looming, Jordan on 1/1/12 sides downplayed the meetings, calling made the surprise announcement that them “exploratory sessions,” so as not Israel and the Palestinians had agreed to raise expectations of a negotiating to send their chief negotiators to Jor- breakthrough. The 2d and 3d sessions dan to meet with Quartet of!cials on were described (e.g., NYT 1/10) as hav- 1/3. Though the parties stressed that ing been “kept at such a low pro!le . . . the meeting would not be a formal ne- that it was almost as if [they] had not gotiating session, it would mark the happened at all.” No details were re- 1st time the negotiators had met since leased, but sources indicated (e.g., NYT 9/2010. The Quartet hoped that Pales- 1/6, 1/10) that neither side offered any- tinian chief negotiator Saeb Erakat and thing new. Netanyahu’s personal emissary Yitzhak After the 3d session, King Abdal- Molcho would present their positions lah traveled to Washington to brief on security and borders and agree on (1/17) U.S. Pres. Barack Obama, tell- the agenda for future direct talks, en- ing reporters afterward that he was abling the Quartet to claim that the convinced that Israel and the Pales- parties were on track to reach a !nal tinians were each making sincere ef- status deal within a year. Erakat stated forts to !nd a way to jumpstart serious (1/1), however, that the Palestinian de- peace talks, but cautioning that there mand for a settlement freeze still stood were serious obstacles to overcome and that the Palestinians had agreed to and time was running out. Separately,

JPS4103_12_Quarterly Updated.indd 171 07/06/12 4:40 PM 172 JOURNAL OF PALESTINE STUDIES

State Dept. spokeswoman Victoria Nu- deadline, Abbas said he would weigh land stated (1/17) that the U.S. knew his next steps in consultation with the that the 1/26/12 target date for restart- Arab League at a meeting between ing !nal status negotiations was “out Palestinian of!cials and Arab League there, [but] we do not want to see it be representatives in Cairo on 2/4 (later a rigid sort of straitjacket that chills the moved to 2/12). Abbas stated: “If we atmosphere.” In Israel, PM Netanyahu demarcate the borders, we can return told (1/17) Israeli lawmakers in a closed to negotiations, but the Israelis do not meeting that “the Palestinians have no want demarcation of borders.” Israel, interest in entering peace talks.” reasserting its own interpretation of the At the 4th session held on 1/21, Er- Quartet timetable, stated that it techni- akat clashed with Molcho when he cally had until 4/3 to produce detailed brought a military expert without ad- position papers and that if the Palestin- vanced notice to list the security con- ians refused to continue talks through cerns the Palestinians were to address that date, they would be the ones walk- in amending their initial security and ing away from the table. borders proposals, which Israel had EU foreign policy chief Catherine found insuf!cient. Erakat insisted that Ashton, already in the region, held sev- the sides were not at the stage of ne- eral meetings with Abbas and Netan- gotiating and that Israel was attempt- yahu separately on 1/25 and 1/26 to ing to ambush the Palestinian side. The urge them to keep the talks going, es- Palestinian team also noted publicly for pecially pressing Israel to make some the 1st time (on 1/21) that Israel had kind of con!dence-building gesture. not turned over its comprehensive posi- (The Palestinians, as noted above, had tion papers on borders and security as requested a further prisoner release; requested by the Quartet and so was Ashton recommended transferring more in no position to request amendments authority to the PA.) UN Secy.-Gen. from the Palestinian side. Israeli of!- Ban Ki-Moon announced (1/25) that cials replied that the 3-month period for he would make his own visit to the re- them to produce detailed positions only gion the following week (1/31–2/2) to began running with the 1st meeting of encourage the sides to continue (see the negotiating teams on 1/3, and that “United Nations” below). Late on 1/25, they therefore had until 4/3 to follow after Ashton’s 1st set of meetings with through. The Quartet did not directly Abbas and Netanyahu, the Israeli team respond to this claim, and Quartet, EU, gave the Palestinians a document (not and U.S. of!cials continued to refer to a publicly released) putting their guid- 1/26 target date. ing principles in writing. Israeli of!cials At the 5th round of talks on 1/25, stressed (1/26) that they did not include Molcho verbally outlined Israel’s “guid- maps. After Ashton’s last meetings on ing principles” on borders and security 1/26, Judeh stated that no further Is- but offered nothing new and gave noth- raeli-Palestinian meetings were sched- ing in writing. According to anonymous uled, as the sides needed time to “assess Israeli and Palestinian of!cials (see Re- where we are and how to move to the uters 1/27), these principles included: next stage.” PLO Executive Commit- (1) “preserving the social and economic tee member Hanan Ashrawi con!rmed fabric of all communities, Jewish or Pal- (1/26): “There has been no progress estinian”; (2) maintaining Israeli control whatsoever. . . . There are no talks any- over a united Jerusalem, the Jordan Val- more. We don’t want to be complicit in ley, and “almost all settlements”; and this game of deception.” (3) leaving most Israelis under Israeli On 2/11, before leaving for Cairo to sovereignty and most Palestinians un- brief the Arab League on the status of der Palestinian sovereignty. Immedi- talks, Abbas met in Jordan with Quar- ately following the session, Abbas met tet special envoy Blair, who urged him (1/25) with King Abdallah in Amman to at least continue low-level talks on and issued a statement saying the ex- borders. He said he had urged Israel to ploratory talks with Israel had ended make goodwill gestures to revive talks, without progress. Given the lack of sub- including easing security restrictions in stantive change by the Quartet’s 1/26 the West Bank and releasing prisoners.

JPS4103_12_Quarterly Updated.indd 172 07/06/12 4:40 PM UPDATE ON CONFLICT AND DIPLOMACY 173

Abbas replied that he would reserve a Soon after, Israeli DM Ehud Barak !nal decision on resuming talks until reported (1/5) that the Netanyahu ad- after the Arab League session. min. was in the process of rewriting At the Arab League on 2/12, Abbas its guidelines on prisoner exchanges in called on member states to support light of the Shalit release, with elements his decision not to renew direct nego- within the government wanting to make tiations with Israel without !rm un- it impossible via new regulations to derstandings on the baselines of talks have such a lopsided exchange (e.g., 1 (including 1967 lines as the basis of !- Israeli for 1,000 Palestinians) in the fu- nal borders) and a settlement freeze, ture. New guidelines were not !nalized and they agreed. He said he would put by the end of the quarter. his demands in a letter to Netanyahu Soon after the releases, the IDF be- and if the response was not favorable, gan harassing a number of the freed he would resume statehood efforts at Palestinians in the West Bank, bringing the UN. There was no further word be- them in for questioning and warning fore the end of the quarter. them not to leave the immediate con- Of note: While there was no move- !nes of their hometowns (e.g., 3 on 1/9, ment on the Palestinian application for 2/10), conducting late-night searches of statehood at the UN this quarter, Ice- their homes (e.g., 11/30, 1/15, 2/10, 2 land (11/29) and Thailand (1/19) of- on 2/13, 2/15), and even rearresting a !cially recognized Palestine as a state few on suspicious of reviving their old within 1967 borders. As of 2/15, at least militant ties (e.g., 11/17, 11/30, 1/15, 131 nations had passed legislation rec- 1/30, 2 on 2/13, 2/15). In addition, Jew- ognizing Palestinian statehood. ish settlers in Hebron attacked (11/20) the home of 1 freed Palestinian, hung Stage 2 of the Shalit Prisoner Swap posters urging that he be killed, and Is Implemented vandalized a grocery store owned by a Last quarter, Israel and Hamas had relative. (The Palestinian, Hani Jaber, agreed to a 2-stage prisoner release had been sentenced to life in prison for that would free IDF Cpl. fatally stabbing a settler in 1993 and (held in Gaza since 6/2006) in exchange had been released in the 1st stage of the for 1,027 Palestinian prisoners. The swap that included prisoners who had 1st stage was completed on 10/18/11, harmed Israelis.) On 1/2, the Knesset with 477 Palestinians released (260 to passed a law requiring that any Pales- Gaza, 175 to the West Bank, and 52 sent tinian prisoner who has been released abroad because they were deemed too early and commits another crime (mis- dangerous to be repatriated to the oc- demeanor or felony) be rearrested and cupied territories) and Shalit returned made to serve the remainder of his or to Israel (see QU in JPS 162). The 2d her original term. stage freeing the other 550 Palestinian Of note: On 12/20, Abbas met in prisoners was to be completed within 2 Turkey with 11 Palestinian prisoners months. released in the 1st stage of the swap The 2d stage of the release was im- but sent abroad as too dangerous to plemented on 12/18. Under the terms of remain in the occupied territories. Is- the agreement, Israel picked which pris- rael denounced (12/20) the meeting as oners to free and chose mostly Fatah- “provocative.” af!liated West Bankers as a gesture to Abbas; none were members of Hamas Intifada Data and Trends or Islamic Jihad or were involved in During the quarter, at least 17 Pal- killing or wounding Israelis. Only 41 estinians and no Israelis were killed as were released to Gaza, 2 to East Jeru- a result of Israeli-Palestinian violence salem, and 2 to Jordan. Palestinians (down signi!cantly from 58 Palestinians complained (NYT 12/19) that “many of and 2 Israelis last quarter), bringing the those being released were due to get toll at 2/15 to at least 7,903 Palestinians out within months anyway. . . . If Israel (including 51 Israeli Arabs and 19 un- had wanted to make a real good-will identi!ed Arab cross-border in!ltrators), gesture, the list would have been totally 1,113 Israelis (including 354 IDF soldiers different.” and security personnel, 226 settlers, and

JPS4103_12_Quarterly Updated.indd 173 07/06/12 4:40 PM 174 JOURNAL OF PALESTINE STUDIES

533 civilians), and 66 foreign nationals least 45 rockets (mostly homemade Qas- (including 2 British suicide bombers). sams but including at least 2 manufac- These numbers include individuals who tured Grads) and 6 mortars (2 of which died in noncombat-related incidents Israel alleged contained white phospho- if their death was a direct result of Is- rous scavenged from IDF shells !red rael’s occupation and the ongoing con- during Operation Cast Lead in 2008–9). "ict (e.g., ailing Palestinians who died These numbers were signi!cantly lower when denied access to medical care and than last quarter, when Israel made Palestinians killed in smuggling tunnel at least 99 air strikes and 23 artillery accidents). strikes, and Palestinians !red 209 rock- The Palestinian Central Bureau of ets (22 of them Grads) and 30 mortars. Statistics reported (11/17) that in 2010, This quarter, Israeli air strikes killed 8 16% of West Bank households and Palestinians (5 militants, 3 civilians) and 31.9% of Gaza households lived below wounded 51 (including at least 13 mili- the poverty line, and that 19% of West tants and 27 civilians). IDF artillery !re Bank children and 38.4% of Gaza chil- killed 2 militants and wounded 4. Pal- dren lived below the poverty line. estinian rocket and mortar !re harmed no Israelis and caused damage in only 1 Overview of the Violence instance. Overall, Israel-Palestinian violence in Throughout the quarter, IDF also the occupied territories was moderate regularly !red warning shots at Pal- in Gaza and low in the West Bank this estinian civilians (typically farmers quarter (see Chronology for details). working their land, shepherds herding Of the 17 Palestinians who died this "ocks, civilians scavenging for construc- quarter as a result of Israeli actions, 16 tion materials in former settlement areas were in Gaza: 3 were targeted for assas- or the demolished Erez industrial zone, sination, 4 were militants laying explo- and nonviolent protesters demonstrat- sive devices along the border or !ring ing against Israel’s imposition of no-go rockets, 3 were civilians killed in IDF zones) who accidentally strayed into air strikes carried out in retaliation for the no-go zones on the Gaza side of the Palestinian rocket !re, 3 were killed in border, killing 2 (the suicide and the smuggling tunnel accidents on the Ra- security guard mentioned above) and fah border, 1 was a guard at a municipal wounding 5 (including 2 children; see sewage treatment facility mistaken for the Chronology on the IPS website for a militant by IDF soldiers, 1 was a sui- details). cidal Palestinian who deliberately ap- Incidents of Israeli naval vessels in- proached the border fence knowing he tercepting or !ring on Palestinian !sh- would be shot, and 1 died of injuries ing boats that sailed too far off coast received in an IDF air strike in 2001. were up signi!cantly, from 4 reported Those assassinated were senior al-Aqsa cases last quarter to 23 this quarter (see Martyr’s Brigade (AMB) commander Chronology for details); at least 1 !sh- Issam al-Batash, his nephew Subhi al- erman was wounded and 2 boats were Batash (a member of Hamas’s Izzed- con!scated in these incidents. The IDF din al-Qassam Brigades), and Sala!st also made at least 10 brief incursions Abdallah al-Talbani. The Batashes were into Gaza, mostly to bulldoze land and killed in an IDF air strike on Gaza City to clear lines of sight along the border on 12/8; Israel claimed both were plan- fence. In a rare instance on 1/29, the ning to in!ltrate Israel and that Issam IDF brie"y entered s. Gaza to arrest 2 had been involved in plotting an AMB- Palestinians (including 1 member of Islamic Jihad suicide bombing in Elat the defunct Gaza branch of the Fatah- on 1/29/07. Talbani was killed in an air af!liated PA security forces) at the aban- strike on Jabaliya on 12/27; no reason doned Dahaniyya airport site. was given. A total of 8 bystanders in- In the West Bank, settler violence cluding 7 civilians (one a child) were remained high, while IDF operations injured in the attacks. returned to a weekly average of 91 (the Israelis carried out at least 51 air average for 2011) after a nearly unprec- strikes (warplanes and drones) and 15 edented low of 71 last quarter. Only 1 artillery strikes; Palestinians !red at Palestinian was killed this quarter: a

JPS4103_12_Quarterly Updated.indd 174 07/06/12 4:40 PM UPDATE ON CONFLICT AND DIPLOMACY 175

Palestinian activist taking part (12/9) in and Toutah’s and who was detained last a nonviolent demonstration against the quarter for “being illegally present in separation wall in Nabi Salih, who was the city” (see QU in JPS 162), was re- struck in the head at close range by an leased on 12/6 but deposited by the IDF IDF tear-gas canister and died the fol- at the Qalandia crossing and ordered to lowing day. Ramallah. Palestinian chief negotiator Israeli arrest raids this quarter tar- Saeb Erakat denounced (12/7) his “forc- geted mostly Hamas. Among those ible transfer” to the West Bank as part detained were 6 Hamas-af!liated Pales- and parcel of Israel’s policy “to ethni- tinian Council (PC) members. About 24 cally cleanse occupied East Jerusalem Hamas-af!liated PC members were al- from its indigenous Palestinian popu- ready in Israeli detention, having been lation.” Hamas-af!liated PC member rounded up as part of an IDF effort Ismail Ashkar, commenting on the de- launched soon after peace talks broke tentions of his colleagues, noted (1/23), down in 2010 to rearrest many of the “Every time we move toward reconcili- senior West Bank Hamas !gures who ation and reactivating the Palestinian were !rst detained in the months af- parliament, we see Israel targeting our ter Hamas’s 1/2006 parliamentary elec- lawmakers.” tion victory (see QUs in JPS 159 and The IDF also carried out several (e.g., 160 for background). The 6 detained 11/22, 11/30, 12/4, 12/6, 12/8) late-night this quarter were: Ayman Daraghmeh arrest raids targeting the PFLP in Jenin, (12/13), ‘Abd al-’Aziz Dweik (1/19), Kha- Nablus and neighboring Balata refugee lid Thwaib (1/19), ‘Abd al-Jabir Fuqaha camp (r.c.), and Ramallah, arresting as (1/23), Khalid Abu Arafa (1/23), and Mu- many as 54 PFLP members, including hammad Toutah (1/23). The IDF also PFLP Central Comm. member Nasser searched (2/15) the homes of another 3 ‘Aziz. No explanation was given. Hamas-af!liated PC members (Ibrahim The IDF also detained (12/17) West Dahbour, Khalid Abu Hassan, Khalid Bank Islamic Jihad spokesman Khader Yahya) in Jenin, con!scating comput- Adnan during a search of his home near ers, documents, cell phones, and video- Jenin, placing him under administrative tapes but making no arrests; raided the detention. Adnan immediately declared Reform and Change Party’s of!ces in a hunger strike to protest his detention Tulkarm (12/5) and Jenin (2/15), con!s- without charge and Israel’s discrimi- cating computers and documents; and natory criminal justice system. On 2/9 sealed (1/29) a charity and kindergar- Adnan’s hunger strike entered its 55th ten in East Jerusalem with alleged ties day, making it the longest by a Palestin- to Hamas. ian prisoner ever recorded. By then, the While most of the 6 PC members 33-yr.-old Adnan had lost 60 lbs. and detained this quarter were placed un- weighted only 140 lbs. Israeli authorities der administrative detention without had hospitalized him, and his condition charge, Abu ‘Arafa and Toutah were ex- was rapidly deteriorating. He was still in pelled to the West Bank for “being in detention at the close of the quarter. The Jerusalem illegally.” The two were ar- IDF also arrested senior Islamic Jihad rested at the International Committee of member Usama Shalabi in Jenin on 1/2. the Red Cross (ICRC) of!ces in East Je- Of note: The IDF continued to ag- rusalem’s Shaykh Jarrah neighborhood, gressively enter PA-controlled Jeri- where they had lived and been holding cho (e.g., twice on 11/18, 11/20, 11/28, a sit-in since 6/2010 to protest Israel’s 11/30, 1/1, 1/2, 1/15, 1/6, 1/13, 1/20, 9/2009 decision to revoke their Jeru- twice on 1/22, 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/12) salem residency status on the grounds as it has for the past year. Entering Jeri- that they were af!liated with a “terror- cho, the 1st West Bank area turned over ist organization” (Hamas). Israel had to full PA control and a PA security warned them in 5/2010 to leave the city headquarters, is considered particularly or be deported to the West Bank (see provocative. QU in JPS 157). Another Hamas-af!li- ated PC member, Ahmad ‘Atwan, whose Movement and Access Issues Jerusalem residency status had been re- This quarter, Palestinian freedom of voked at the same time as Abu ‘Arafa’s movement in the West Bank remained

JPS4103_12_Quarterly Updated.indd 175 07/06/12 4:40 PM 176 JOURNAL OF PALESTINE STUDIES

relatively good (i.e., it was possible to of goods per week entered Gaza (up go almost anywhere, though not nec- from 854 last quarter, but still only 37% essarily by the most direct route). In of the weekly average before Hamas’s general, travel between major popula- takeover of Gaza in 6/2007), with food tion centers continued to be easier than items constituting 41% of imports on travel to outlying villages. From 12/13 average (down from 51% last quarter, through the end of the quarter, the UN but still high compared to 20% before Of!ce for the Coordination of Humani- the siege, indicating that imports were tarian Affairs (OCHA) reported 585 still providing subsistence rather than roadblocks (mostly earthen mounds and economic stimulation). While Israel unmanned barriers) across the West on 11/16 allowed the !rst shipment of Bank, up slightly from 523 last quarter; construction material for private build- only a few dozen of these were perma- ing projects in Gaza (for reconstruct- nent manned checkpoints. (The IDF’s ing 10 factories), the range of imports checkpoint infrastructure remained in- remained limited largely to construc- tact, however.) tion material for UN and donor-funded In Gaza, Israel maintained near total projects and Palestinian public works control of borders except at the Rafah projects necessary to maintain pub- crossing, where Egypt limited access to lic health standards, as well as wheat prevent a rift with Israel. Egypt opened and fodder. Commercial goods were the crossing 5–6 days per week and on mainly foodstuffs, clothing and shoes, average per day granted entry to 648 washing machines, refrigerators, elec- Palestinians, turned back 28 Palestin- tricity generators, water tanks, pumps, ians that Hamas authorities had granted and machines for factories, and limited permission to leave, and allowed 601 livestock. From 11/24, Israeli allowed Palestinian to return to Gaza via Ra- limited exports of strawberries, cut fah (comparable to last quarter when a "owers, tomatoes, and bell peppers to daily average of 625 Palestinians were the Netherlands under a humanitarian allowed out, 24 were denied entry, and agreement with the Dutch government 564 were allowed in). For a brief period (approved in 2009) to aid Gaza farmers; when traf!c out of Gaza seemed lower these were the 1st exports allowed since than usual (12/18/11–ca.1/24), Gaza’s the strawberry and carnation season Interior Min. lifted restrictions requiring ended 6 months earlier (see QU in JPS Palestinians to register with the minis- 161). Israel also allowed the 1st ship- try before exiting Gaza, but reimposed ment of furniture (18 pieces on 1/22) to the requirement when numbers exiting leave Gaza since the siege was imposed climbed. Israel continued to restrict use in 2007. of the Erez crossing on a case-by-case Smuggling goods through the Rafah basis to urgent medical cases, VIPs, tunnels, especially construction materi- and employees of international organi- als for private projects, remained high zations. The IDF also continued to en- overall except for fuel. In late 1/2012, force the 300-m no-go zone along the Egyptian police began imposing restric- full length of the Gaza border and lim- tions on fuel trucks heading to Rafah; ited Palestinian !shing off Gaza to 500– by 2/7, 70% of gas stations in Gaza had 1,000 m off Bayt Lahiya and Rafah and closed for lack of supplies. The fuel 3 naut. mi. elsewhere—restrictions that shortages, combined with increased fuel placed 17% of Gaza’s total landmass, in- demands during winter and an unex- cluding vast agricultural areas, off limits plained decline in electricity from Israel to Palestinians. as of 2/7 through 2/15, caused rolling Movement of goods remained re- blackouts in Gaza to increase dramati- stricted to the Israeli-controlled Kerem cally, from 4–6 hours/day at the start of Shalom crossing in s. Gaza. (Indeed, the quarter to 6–8 hours/day when us- by 1/3, the IDF had demolished the re- age rose because of the temperatures maining structures on the Palestinian dropped, and 12–18 hours/day from 2/1 side of the Qarni crossing, which Israel through the end of the quarter. closed on 3/2/2011 when the Kerem Also of note: As of 12/6, health of- Shalom crossing became fully opera- !cials in Gaza reported that Gaza’s tional.) On average, 1,047 truckloads Central Drug Store was lacking 120

JPS4103_12_Quarterly Updated.indd 176 07/06/12 4:40 PM UPDATE ON CONFLICT AND DIPLOMACY 177

essential medicines and 140 essen- sit-in protest tent was erected (by 2/4) tial medical supplies, including medi- in Ramallah and at least 3 nonviolent cine for anesthesia, cancer, hemophilia, protest marches to Ofer prison (2/11, and kidney dialysis (450 patients). Of- 2/13, 2/15) were held in solidarity with !cials blamed the shortage on poor co- Adnan. ordination between the Min. of Health In Gaza, Palestinians and interna- branches in Gaza and the West Bank tional activists held at least 4 nonvio- (where no shortages were reported). lent marches (12/13, 1/17, 1/24, 1/31) As a result of the alert, Gaza’s Central toward the Israeli border to protest Is- Drug Store received 2 urgent shipments rael’s imposition of no-go zones along (12/18, 1/5) of medicine and supplies the length of the border inside the strip. from Ramallah, enough to replenish its The IDF routinely !red warning shots to stores until mid-2/2012. disperse the protesters, causing no re- ported injuries. Nonviolent Protests in the Territories This quarter, Palestinians in the West Settlers, Settlements, and Judaization Bank continued their regular weekly of Jerusalem protests against the separation wall, land con!scations, and demolitions, of- Settlement Expansion and ten with the participation of Israeli and Consolidation international activists (see Chronology expansion contin- for details). Most were held in Bil’in and ued apace this quarter with the govern- Ni’lin near Ramallah, Nabi Salih in the ment approving several new settlement north central West Bank, Kafr Qaddum projects, mostly in and around East Je- village near Qalqilya, and outside Kar- rusalem. For example, Israel’s Housing mei Tsur settlement near Hebron. On Min. issued (12/18) tenders for construc- 2/10, Palestinians in Kafr al-Dik village tion of 1,028 Jewish settlement units in near Sal!t held their !rst nonviolent East Jerusalem (500 in Har Homa, 348 protest against recent IDF actions in the in Beitar Ilit, and 180 in Givat Ze’ev). nearby Dayr Sam’an archeological area Israel also announced (1/2) plans to that were interpreted as preliminary implement a 9/2011 decision to con- steps to annex the land. IDF troops rou- !scate 13 dunams (d.; 4 d. = 1 acre) of tinely !red rubber-coated steel bullets, East Jerusalem property in Wadi al-Juz tear gas, and percussion grenades to located between Hebrew University and disperse protesters. Occasionally they the Palestine Archaeological Museum; !red live ammunition, often causing the move would displace 170 Palestinian minor-to-moderate injuries, though 1 stores employing some 700 workers. Palestinian demonstrator was killed by Israel approved (2/14) plans for the a tear-gas canister !red at close range right-wing settler group Elad to build a on 12/10. Most Palestinian injuries from new archeological tourism center in Sil- IDF action in the West Bank this quar- wan, near the Haram al-Sharif/Temple ter occurred at these weekly demonstra- Mount. The complex would include of- tions (see OCHA weekly reports). !ces, museum and conference space, At the start of the quarter, many of an underground car park, and 2 un- these weekly demonstrations also called derground “archeological tunnels” run- for national reconciliation, Palestin- ning north under the Mughrabi gate ians rights, and the release of Palestin- and south under the area housing the ian prisoners. These calls had begun Umayyad Caliphate palaces (which Is- in mid-9/2012 in connection with the rael calls the Temple of Solomon). In a UNGA statehood bid and the 10/2011 setback for Elad, however, Israel’s Je- Israel-Hamas prisoner swap (see QU rusalem Magistrate’s Court rejected in JPS 162) but tapered off by early (mid-12/2011) 2 lawsuits brought by the 12/2011. Calls for solidarity with Pal- group demanding the eviction of Pales- estinian prisoners resumed in early tinian families from their Silwan homes. 2/2012 when the health of hunger-strik- In a major incident in the Old City, ing Palestinian prisoner Khader Adnan Israel closed (12/12) the old wooden began to deteriorate (see “Overview Mughrabi footbridge (deemed un- of the Violence” above). In addition, a safe) used by non-Muslims to reach the

JPS4103_12_Quarterly Updated.indd 177 07/06/12 4:40 PM 178 JOURNAL OF PALESTINE STUDIES

Haram al-Sharif/Temple Mount. After areas.” He also appointed a committee Jordanian, PA, and Waqf of!cials pro- to “study the status” of unauthorized tested, saying Israel’s true intent was to settlement outposts, which some saw as build a larger permanent structure to a move to legalize those (the vast major- assert its control over the site, Israel (on ity) not built on private Palestinian land. 12/14) reopened the bridge and agreed Both steps were widely seen as aimed to reinforce it rather than replace it. at appeasing party hardliners. On 12/12, the IDF acknowledged that Israel plans to relocate some 2,000 Bed- Netanyahu Takes Action against ouin from 20 encampments in the hills Price-Tag Attacks east of Jerusalem (in area C) in order to Meanwhile, however, concerns over clear the way for expanding Ma’ale Adu- escalating price-tag attacks by settlers mim settlement into the E1 zone to link (intended to punish Palestinians and it with Jerusalem. Construction in the the IDF for steps that curb their actions) E1 zone and settler preparation for ex- prompted unprecedented Israeli govern- panding Ma’ale Adumim into the area ment action to curb radical settlers. The had been in the works since 2009, but trigger was the 12/13 takeover by right- this marked the 1st admission that the wing settlers (angry over Netanyahu’s government intends to remove the Bed- decision to allow the Mughrabi bridge ouin population from the area. in Jerusalem to reopen; see above) of In areas s. of Jerusalem near Bethle- several abandoned churches in a closed hem, Israel approved (12/28) construc- military zone (CMZ) near the Jordanian tion of another 130 housing units in border (to protest Jordan’s intervention Gilo settlement and announced (12/12) in the matter). They also blocked a main the establishment of a new 40-unit set- West Bank road and stoned passing Pal- tlement neighborhood and farm near estinian vehicles. The IDF removed the Efrat settlement to expand the Gush settlers from the CMZ and arrested 17, Etzion settlement bloc. The new settle- but took no action against the settlers ment, to be called Givat Hadagan, was blocking the road. Meanwhile, informa- approved for development in the 1990s tion had been leaked to the settlers that and eventually envisions building 500 the government had covertly planned housing units. to remove the Mitzpe settle- The IDF also bulldozed (1/10) Pales- ment outpost near Nablus that same day tinian land in Azariyya, just outside Je- (12/13), prompting about 50 of them rusalem, for construction of a “biblical to break into an IDF base in the West garden.” Bank, setting !res, vandalizing vehicles, Regarding areas deeper in the West clashing with troops, and stoning and Bank: The Israeli High Court accepted injuring a senior IDF of!cer in effort to (1/3) an agreement reached between prevent the action. (Troops were able to the state and settlers whereby the state detain only 2 of the assailants.) Israeli would agree to suspend plans for the DM Barak condemned (12/13) the inci- immediate demolition of 9 structures dents as “home-grown terror,” while PM in the Ramat Gilad unauthorized settle- Netanyahu vowed (12/13) to “act aggres- ment outpost near Qalqilya and give the sively against those harming Israeli sol- settlers until 3/2012 to remove the struc- diers and their commanders.” Overnight tures themselves. The settlers claimed 12/13–14, a group of ultra-Orthodox that the state agreed in exchange to ex- settler youths entered Nablus to pray pand the zoning boundaries for nearby at Joseph’s Tomb but without the usual settlement to include coordination with and escort of the IDF Ramat Gilad (retroactively legalizing the and defaced a mosque, in what was outpost), but the of!cial documents sub- seen as a further act of de!ance. mitted to the court did not say this. In response to these incidents, the On 1/30, a day before Likud party Israeli cabinet on 12/14 approved sev- primaries (see “Israeli Legislation and eral measures aimed to contain right- Government Affairs” below), Netan- wing Jewish extremists. These included yahu approved new !nancial incen- permitting settler detention without trial tives for Jews to move to 70 West Bank (administrative detention) and trial in settlements deemed “national priority military courts, allowing soldiers in the

JPS4103_12_Quarterly Updated.indd 178 07/06/12 4:40 PM UPDATE ON CONFLICT AND DIPLOMACY 179

West Bank to arrest them, and banning regarding the planned evacuation of them from entering the West Bank. The Mitzpe Yitzhar) were received from ac- measure did not label Jewish extrem- tive duty IDF soldiers and included ists who attack Israeli security forces as classi!ed aerial photos and maps. The “terrorists,” however, which would have charges (which could bring up to 5 allowed the security forces greater lee- years in prison) were !led in a civil way to act against them. In announcing court in Jerusalem, despite the 12/18 the decision, Israeli spokesman Mark decision to allow military courts in the Regev stated (12/14): “One of the criti- West Bank to try such cases. cisms of Israel is that there are two sys- Separately, the IDF reported (12/6) tems of law in the West Bank, one for that 3 IDF soldiers had been arrested on Palestinians and a second for Israelis. suspicion of participating in price-tag Now rioters from both sides will be attacks in the West Bank. tried under the same system.” Hours later, Israeli police raided a Jerusalem Settler Attacks on Palestinians apartment and arrested 6 Israelis for Incidents of settler violence against involvement in “recent events” target- Palestinians were down this quarter (37 ing Palestinians and the IDF. In ap- incidents compared to 59 last quarter), parent price-tag attacks to protest the though the severity of attacks seemed government moves: Jewish extremists greater, including more arsons, more set !re to the Nabi Ukasha mosque in attacks on Palestinian religious sites, West Jerusalem (Israeli authorities had and larger groups of settlers (sometimes long barred Palestinians from using the 100s) taking part in incidents (see Chro- mosque, while allowing settlers af!li- nology for details). The breakdown of ated with the extremist Kach party to incidents by region was as follows: Nab- use the courtyard as a playground) and lus (12), Hebron (8), Sal!t (5), Qalqilya Jewish settlers set !re to Palestinian (4), Ramallah (3), East Jerusalem and cars in Douma (near Nablus) and Sal!t. the Jordan Valley (2 each), and Bethle- When the IDF !nally removed the hem (1). Settler actions included: placing mobile homes at Mitzpe Yitzhar on mobile homes on or fencing off Pales- 12/15, settlers retaliated by setting tinian land to expand settlement out- !re to and spraying racist graf!ti on a posts (2/4, 2/9); bulldozing Palestinian mosque in Burqa village near Ramallah. land and planting trees to stake claim to Some days earlier, on 12/3, the IDF re- Palestinian land (2/5, 2/6, 2/10); arson, moved settlement structures at mostly to cars but including 3 mosques settlement near Nablus, prompting 2 and 2 houses (12/7, 12/12, 2 on 12/14, price-tag attacks in retaliation: the kid- 12/15, 12/19, 1/11, 1/15, 2/4); vandaliz- napping and beating a 63-yr.-old Pal- ing property, including 2 mosques and estinian farmer, and the beating of a a Greek Orthodox church (11/20, 11/23, Palestinian shepherd and killing 4 of his 2 on 12/12, 12/13, 12/15, 2 on 2/7, 2/9); sheep. These were the only 2 instances entering Palestinian population centers this quarter of IDF demolition of settler in shows of force, sometimes under IDF structures. escort (12/13, 12/15, 12/26, 2/1, 2/3, On 1/5, Israel temporarily banned 12 2/9); beating, stoning, or harassing Pal- Jewish extremists from the West Bank estinians (2 on 12/3, 12/16, 2/3, 2/11); for periods of 3–9 months as part of obstructing Palestinian traf!c (12/12, Netanyahu’s crackdown against price- 12/13, 12/17, 2/1); and uprooting trees tag attacks. On 1/8, the government (2/11). At year’s end, OCHA reported charged 5 Jewish settlers for: (1) orches- (1/5) that Jewish settlers had vandalized trating the 12/13 riot at the IDF base to more than 10,000 Palestinian olive trees prevent the removal of Mitzpe Yitzhar in 2011. outpost; (2) operating a hotline to col- Of special note: Israeli journalist and lect tips on IDF and Israeli police move- historian Gershon Gorenberg noted in a ments in the West Bank; and (3) using New York Times Sunday Review piece on the information collected via the hot- 11/27 that radical Jewish settlers had ex- line to direct settlers to interfere with panded their Judaization effort into Is- IDF operations. Prosecutors alleged that rael, executing a strategic plan to “save” some of the tips received (including mixed (Arab-Jewish) towns by moving

JPS4103_12_Quarterly Updated.indd 179 07/06/12 4:40 PM 180 JOURNAL OF PALESTINE STUDIES

Jewish families into Arab areas of the in East Jerusalem on 12/11. Simultane- towns with the intent of stirring up trou- ously, it closed its Shu’fat checkpoint ble and encouraging the Arabs to relo- into Jerusalem, redirecting traf!c to a cate to predominantly Arab villages. new hi-tech checkpoint nearby that was begun in 2009 to serve as an interna- Demolitions and Con!scations tional border crossing into Jerusalem in IDF demolitions were up this quar- the future. The changes left more than ter and were mostly concentrated in 50,000 Palestinians living in Shu’fat and East Jerusalem, the Jordan Valley, and several surrounding Jerusalem suburbs Hebron. In total, the IDF demolished at (Ras Shihada, Ras Khamis, al-Salam, least 25 Palestinian homes (compared to and part of ‘Anata) who hold Jerusalem 12 last quarter). In the Jerusalem area, IDs completely isolated from Jerusalem. Israeli authorities demolished 15 homes The IDF also con!scated (11/29) 12 completely and 4 partially, demolished d. of Palestinian agricultural land n. of several Bedouin caves in al-Tur, bull- Hebron for construction of the separa- dozed 4 workshops in Azariyya and a tion wall, ordering the owners to re- warehouse in Sur al-Bahir, and leveled move a well and clear the land of trees a playground and recreation center in within 45 days or face a !ne. Silwan. In Hebron, the IDF demolished 7 homes and 3 warehouses completely and 2 houses partially, and bulldozed ISRAELI LEGISLATION AND dozens of wells, irrigation networks, GOVERNMENT AFFAIRS and water tanks. In the Jordan Valley, the IDF leveled 17 Bedouin tents and Netanyahu won Likud primaries on caves, 9 shops, and over a dozen ani- 1/31 with 75% of the vote. Some ana- mal pens in several Bedouin villages. lysts (e.g., Washington Post [WP] 2/2) Another 3 homes in Jericho, a factory in saw the sudden move (announced on Qalqilya, and 2 warehouses and 2 irri- 12/5) to hold a party primary as indica- gation networks in Sal!t were also de- tive of a possible call for early elections molished. At year’s end, OCHA reported in 10/2012 (a year ahead of schedule) (1/5) that the IDF had demolished at insofar as it would give his internal least 622 structures in the West Bank party opposition less time to organize. and East Jerusalem during 2011 (com- Others noted (e.g., WP 2/1), however, pared to 431 in 2010), displacing 1,094 that Netanyahu’s only challenger within Palestinians (compared to 594 in 2010). the party, ultranationalist settler Moshe In addition, the IDF bulldozed Feiglin, made a strong showing, seen as (11/16–22) 130 d. of Palestinian ag- indication that many Likud supporters ricultural land, uprooted 500 trees, feel Netanyahu is “too soft on peace- and forced Palestinians to dismantle making with the Palestinians.” 9 greenhouses and 7,000 m of irriga- In a sign of dissention within Netan- tion networks to allow the rerouting of yahu’s coalition, Israel’s right-wing FM the separation wall near Qalqilya. Dur- Avigdor Lieberman ordered the FMin. ing the same period (11/16–22), the IDF to cut ties with Mossad, saying Mossad bulldozed 18 d. in the Jericho area and was “trespassing on the ministry’s turf 400 d. in the Sal!t area claimed by Is- abroad while refusing to share any in- rael as state land. Israel troops leveled telligence material.” Insiders said (e.g., (12/8) 150 d. of Palestinian agricultural Washington Times [WT] 12/18) that Li- land near Gush Etzion settlement near eberman was irked that Netanyahu re- Bethlehem; fenced off and uprooted lied more on Mossad of!cials than on trees (2/15) from 300 d. near Shilo set- him to conduct diplomacy abroad, not- tlement near Ramallah; and bulldozed ing that Netanyahu recently dispatched (2/1) 30 d. of land in Jayyus near Qalqi- retired Mossad of!cial David Meidan to lya that Jewish settlers had previously Turkey to try to improve bilateral rela- sought to occupy. tions after having involved him the ne- gotiations for the Shalit release. Separation Wall On 1/12, Israel’s High Court up- The IDF completed a section of the held (6–5) a controversial law that bans separation wall bordering Shu’fat r.c. most Palestinians who marry Israeli

JPS4103_12_Quarterly Updated.indd 180 07/06/12 4:40 PM UPDATE ON CONFLICT AND DIPLOMACY 181

citizens from obtaining citizenship on agreement by the end of 1/2012; (2) to the ground this would pose a security bring elected Hamas-af!liated legisla- threat. tors back into the PA’s parliament, the The Israeli cabinet unanimously ap- Palestinian Council (PC), in 2/2012; and proved (2/5) a $2.3-b. project to build a (3) to both sit on the committee that “Red-Med” railway line linking Tel Aviv would prepare for the next elections of and Elat to create a Asian-European the PLO’s parliament-in-exile, the Pales- cargo corridor bypassing the Suez Ca- tinian National Council (PNC). This last nal. Israeli of!cials said China has ex- point would be a signi!cant step toward pressed interest in the project. Hamas joining the PLO. Substantive dis- cussions on the actual makeup of the interim government were postponed INTRA-PALESTINIAN DYNAMICS until late 1/2012. Separately, Fatah and Hamas announced (12/20) that, in keep- National Reconciliation ing with the reconciliation deal, they On 11/24, Damascus-based Hamas had agreed on formation of a new Cen- leader Mishal and PA pres. and Fatah tral Elections Commission (CEC) to pre- head Abbas met in Cairo for their 1st pare for presidential and parliamentary detailed talks (lasting 2 hours) on im- elections. On 1/24, Hamas allowed the plementing their 5/2011 reconciliation CEC of!ce to open a voter registration agreement since 8/2011, when Abbas of!ce in Gaza to prepare for eventual effectively suspended reconciliation ef- elections. forts so as not to jeopardize the 9/2011 No reconciliation meetings were held UN statehood bid (see QU in JPS 161). from the time the Israeli-Palestinian At the end of the meeting, Abbas and exploratory talks in Amman were an- Mishal approved a 2-page document nounced on 1/1 until they ended on (leaked to Agence France-Presse [AFP], 1/25. Soon after, on 2/5–6, Abbas and which published excerpts on 11/24) Mishal met in Doha, where Qatar’s emir reiterating their commitment to the joined them as they held detailed dis- main elements of the 5/2011 unity deal, cussions on forming the transitional agreeing to observe a truce in the West government of independent techno- Bank and Gaza Strip (including halt- crats with the limited mandate of taking ing political arrests), vowing to increase the Palestinians to new elections and “popular resistance” to oppose Israel’s to lead reconstruction of Gaza. Three settlement expansion and construction major issues had hindered implemen- of the separation wall, and pledging fur- tation before (see QU in JPS 161): (1) ther talks among the factions (not held international concerns about bringing this quarter) to agree on the “style” of Hamas back into the PA; (2) differences popular resistance and “a framework to between Fatah and Hamas regarding direct it.” In an interview with AFP later which independent to appoint as PM in the day, Mishal clari!ed that Hamas for the transition (Hamas adamantly op- believed in both armed and popular re- posed the current PM, Salam al-Fayyad); sistance, stating “armed struggle is our and (3) the division of government port- right. How we use it, and when we use folios for overseeing day-to-day gover- it, is something different.” Mishal and nance. To address the !rst 2 concerns, Abbas failed at this meeting to resolve the sides agreed (2/6) that Abbas would key issues regarding the composition lead the transitional government, serv- of an interim unity government and ing as both pres. and PM. They also re- elections. Though both called the talks iterated that the interim government positive, sources said (e.g., WP 11/25) would be “a technical one more than a that the meeting “raised new questions political one” and that diplomacy would about whether the rivals are serious continue to rest with the Fatah-domi- about working together or just going nated PLO, led by Abbas and to which through the motions.” Hamas did not belong. Abbas and Meeting again in Cairo 12/21–22, Ab- Mishal called for a meeting of all Pales- bas and Mishal agreed in principle to tinian factions on 2/18 to endorse the 3 points: (1) to form the interim unity plan. The international response ranged government called for in the 5/2011 from guarded to critical: Netanyahu

JPS4103_12_Quarterly Updated.indd 181 07/06/12 4:40 PM 182 JOURNAL OF PALESTINE STUDIES

denounced (2/6) Abbas for “joining Bank of Palestine and Palestine Islamic forces with the enemies of peace.” The Bank, must pay 10s of millions of dol- EU and U.S. said (2/6) that they looked lars in !nes and back fees for refus- forward to continuing their support, ing to recognize the Hamas authority’s provided the new government was power to levy taxes and for remitting committed to the Quartet principles of taxes collected to the West Bank PA. nonviolence, recognition of Israel, and Bank of!cials boycotted the hearings adherence to existing peace agreements. and said that they might simply shut down to avoid paying Hamas authori- PA’s West Bank Rule ties. The ruling was seen as precedent The New York Times reported (2/1) setting and possibly applicable to Gaza’s that since mid-1/2012, Palestinians (in- 7 other banks, as well as companies cluding the private sector, unions, ele- that import fuel and electricity and op- ments of Fatah, and youth groups) had erate cell phones. The issue remained been holding demonstrations against unresolved at the close of the quarter. PA PM Salam al-Fayyad in Ramallah and On 12/29, the independent Palestin- other cities to protest soaring prices and ian Center for Human Rights accused proposed PA austerity measures, in- Hamas authorities in Gaza of harass- cluding tax increases, cutbacks on ser- ing Fatah members, saying Hamas po- vices, and a plan of forced retirement lice had summoned about 50 former for 20,000 civil servants. (Electricity members of the Fatah security forces costs, for example, had nearly tripled in since 12/26, questioning them at length, the past year.) Protesters demanded sal- detaining some, and searching some ary increases and subsidies to compen- homes. sate for in"ation, but as it stood, the PA On 1/14, Hamas-af!liated police carried a $350 m. budget shortfall from raided a house in Bayt Lahiya, beating 2011. Even with Israel’s VAT transfers and detaining 15–20 Palestinians before restored (see “Subtle Changes Alter the releasing them later in the day. Pales- Prospects for Talks” above), the foreign tinian media sources (e.g., Ma’an News aid received by the PA was not enough Agency 1/17) claimed that the small to cover recurrent expenses. The dem- group was performing prayers to mark onstrations were so heated that Fayyad a Shi’i holy day and were targeted be- suspended imposition of the tax hike cause they are Shi’i minorities. Hamas until mid-2/2012 and dropped the early of!cials denied (1/17) this, saying that retirement proposal pending talks to “police tracked an illegal group with ease tensions. corrupted views that were planning The PA Tourism Min. launched to commit crimes.” Palestinian human (12/13) a campaign in Bethlehem to co- rights groups demanded an investiga- incide with Christmas called “Palestine tion, but there were no reports that one Celebrating Hope.” Tourism M Kholoud was conducted. Daibes said that the intention was to Gaza courts sentenced 2 Palestinians convey to the estimated 50,000 foreign- to death this quarter: 1 for collaborat- ers visiting Bethlehem for Christmas ing with Israel (1/11) and 1 for murder “that we have hope of having our own (1/20). As of 1/20, Palestinian courts independent state, and we need inter- had issued 123 death sentences since national support for that.” The initiative 1994 (25 West Bank, 98 Gaza); 36 have included special tours of the separa- been issued since 2007 (after Hamas tion wall around Bethlehem and free took over Gaza). Of those sentenced, 11 postcards of the Church of the Nativity, in Gaza were executed between 1994 which tourists could mail at the Man- and 2007; 8 in Gaza have been executed ger Square post of!ce with Palestinian since 2007. stamps.

Hamas in Gaza PALESTINIAN OPINION With the Hamas government in Gaza facing its own budget crisis, a Hamas- The following data are excerpted appointed lower court in Gaza ruled from a poll conducted by the (11/17) that 2 major banks in Gaza, the Jerusalem Media and Communication

JPS4103_12_Quarterly Updated.indd 182 07/06/12 4:40 PM UPDATE ON CONFLICT AND DIPLOMACY 183

Center (JMCC) between 17 and 20 4. Do you think that the policy of U.S. November 2011. Results are based on Pres. Obama will increase or reduce a survey of 1,200 men and women the chances of reaching a just peace from the West Bank (including East between the Palestinians and Israelis? Jerusalem) and Gaza. The poll, the West 75th in a series, was taken from Bank Gaza Total JMCC’s site at www.jmcc.org. a. It will increase 6.1% 2.9% 4.9% the chances 1. The Palestinian leadership has b. It will reduce 39.1% 51.8% 43.8% recently ceased its participation in the chances bilateral negotiations with Israel c. It won’t make 48.0% 42.4% 45.9% and it has turned to the UN. To what any difference extent are you satis!ed with this d. Don’t know/No 6.8% 2.9% 5.4% matter? answer West Bank Gaza Total 5. What do you think of the Quartet Committees’ role in the peace process a. Satis!ed 55.3% 44.2% 51.2% b. Neither satis!ed 25.7% 30.4% 27.5% between the Palestinians and Israelis? nor dissatis!ed West c. Dissatis!ed 12.1% 20.0% 15.1% Bank Gaza Total d. Don’t know/No 6.9% 5.4% 6.2% a. Positive 15.9% 16.0% 15.9% answer b. Neutral 30.7% 25.8% 28.8% c. Negative 36.4% 50.2% 41.6% 2. There is a debate among the d. Don’t know/No 17.0% 8.0% 13.7% Palestinian circles on the evalu- answer ation of the role of the PNA and whom it serve more. Some people 6. What do you think of the Quartet think it serves the interests of Israel Committees’ position towards Israeli- more than it does to the Palestinian Palestinian relations? Do you think it people’s interests, while others is neutral, more biased towards the believe that it serves the Palestinian Palestinians, or more biased towards people’s interests more. What do you the Israelis? think? West West Bank Gaza Total Bank Gaza Total a. Neutral 17.2% 17.6% 17.3% a. Serves Israel’s 27.2% 20.2% 24.6% b. More biased 6.0% 5.1% 5.7% interests more towards b. Serves 58.8% 69.3% 62.7% Palestinians Palestinians’ c. More biased 59.7% 69.8% 63.5% interests more towards Israelis c. Don’t know/No 14.0% 10.5% 12.7% d. Don’t know/No 17.1% 7.5% 13.5% answer answer 3. There is a debate on the future of the PA whereby some people believe FRONTLINE STATES that dissolving the PA is necessary now while others believe that perpet- EGYPT uating the PA and maintaining it is a Egypt, focused on its !rst elections necessity. What do you think? since Husni Mubarak’s fall in 2/2011 West (see “Regional Affairs” below), was not Bank Gaza Total deeply involved in the Israeli-Palestinian a. Dissolving the 23.2% 20.4% 22.2% peace process or mediating between PA is necessary Fatah and Hamas this quarter. Egypt b. Perpetuating 62.7% 71.1% 65.8% hosted meetings between Abbas and the PA is Mishal on 11/24 and 12/21–22 and be- necessary tween Abbas and Arab League represen- c. Don’t know/No 14.1% 8.5% 12.0% tatives on 2/12, but did not attempt to answer broker any deals.

JPS4103_12_Quarterly Updated.indd 183 07/06/12 4:40 PM 184 JOURNAL OF PALESTINE STUDIES

Israel’s new ambassador to Egypt, to increase pressure for government re- Ya’akov Amitai, arrived in Cairo on form. His visit to Ramallah (11/21) for 12/12. Israel had evacuated its embassy the !rst time in 10 years, his hosting of staff from Egypt and brie"y closed the Israeli-Palestinian exploratory talks to embassy in early 9/2011 after Egyp- advance the Quartet’s latest peace ef- tians occupied and ransacked the build- fort (1/3–25), intervention against Israeli ing to protest a cross-border incident in plans in the Mughrabi bridge dispute which IDF soldiers shot dead 3 Egyp- (see “Settlers, Settlements, and Judaiza- tian border police (see QU in JPS 162). tion of Jerusalem” above), and tenta- The embassy had reopened on 9/19, but tive moves toward relations with Hamas without an ambassador as Israeli de- (11/2011) all seemed calculated to raise bated staff changes. Jordan’s regional and international pro- Security along the Egypt-Israel bor- !le, arguably bringing his regime some der remained a prime concern for both credit with its Islamist opposition. countries this quarter. On 11/23, smug- The invitation to Hamas leader glers attempting to sneak across the Mishal for talks in Jordan may have im- Egyptian border into Israel clashed with proved the king’s image at home, but it Egyptian border police inside Egyptian complicated his foreign relations. Aside territory (killing 2 border police) and from prompting his visit to Ramallah then crossed into Israel, where they ex- on 11/21 to assure Abbas personally changed !re with IDF soldiers (causing on his intentions, the planned visit also no reported injuries) before "eeing back brought (ca. 11/21) expressions of dis- into Egypt and escaping. pleasure from Washington and hints By late 11/2011, Israel had acceler- that U.S. aid could be cut if Jordan rec- ated construction of a 15-ft. fence along onciled with Hamas. the length of its 140-mi. border with While Abdallah initially seemed Egypt to prevent such cross-border inci- geared to receive Mishal in late 11/2011, dents and to deter illegal workers from he delayed the meeting once Israel and sneaking into Israel. Israel’s cabinet the Palestinians agreed to exploratory unanimously approved (12/11) $160 m. talks in Amman. As those talks came to for the next stage of the security fence an impasse, Jordan of!cially announced construction, as well as for expansion (1/24) that the king would receive of detention centers to hold in!ltrators Mishal on 1/29 but would continue to and increased policing of companies bar Hamas from undertaking political that hire illegal workers. Since 1/2006, activities on its soil. nearly 50,000 illegal workers, mostly for Mishal arrived in Amman on 1/29 Eritrea and Sudan, have entered Israel with Qatar’s crown prince Shaykh Ta- via the Sinai, raising concerns among Is- mim bin Hamad al-Thani and a senior raelis that the mounting in"ux of illegal Hamas delegation (including his deputy, Africans could undermine Israel’s Jew- Musa Abu Marzuq, and 4 other of!cials). ish character. He told Abdallah that Hamas was eager Unidenti!ed assailants blew up (2/4) to establish “unique relations” with Jor- Egypt’s natural gas pipeline to Israel for dan, would “respect the limits and ceil- the 12th time in the past year, tempo- ings of any relationship determined by rarily disrupting exports. No group took the two sides,” and would seek to main- responsibility. Israel generates 40% of tain the security and stability of Jordan. its electricity from natural gas, and 43% He did not say whether he had asked to of that natural gas is supplied by Egypt. reopen a Hamas of!ce in Jordan. No of- !cial agreements were announced.

JORDAN LEBANON Jordan’s increased involvement in the peace process and Palestinian af- Lebanon kept a low pro!le this quar- fairs this quarter was seen by some ter, particularly in light of the growing (e.g., WP, WT 1/25) as an effort by King instability in neighboring Syria. The Abdallah to confront his internal op- most signi!cant Lebanese events this position, which had been encouraged quarter related to spying and internal by the Arab Spring protests regionwide security issues.

JPS4103_12_Quarterly Updated.indd 184 07/06/12 4:40 PM UPDATE ON CONFLICT AND DIPLOMACY 185

The Hariri Assassination’s con!rmed the gist of the report but Ongoing Effect on Politics disputed the number of informants in- While there was no signi!cant move- volved. On 12/9, Hizballah broadcast a ment this quarter on the UN’s investi- TV segment naming 10 alleged CIA of- gation into Hariri’s assassination, the !cers working in Lebanon. The CIA re- unresolved issue continued to affect fused to comment, though former CIA Lebanese domestic and international of!cials said that at least 1 name (of the politics. For example, rallies in Beirut CIA bureau chief in Lebanon) appeared marking the 7th anniversary of Hariri’s to be accurate. assassination on 2/14 were strongly sup- A Lebanese court sentenced (1/24) portive of the Syrian opposition move- former brig. gen. Fayiz Karam to 2 years ment, blaming the Asad regime for in jail (including time served) for giving Hariri’s killing. classi!ed information to Israel. Karam, Allegations that Hizballah was in- jailed in mid-2009, was scheduled to be volved in Hariri’s killing weighed heav- released in 6 months. ily in the U.S. decision to prominently link Hizballah to a terrorism investiga- Security Incidents tion of the Lebanese Canadian Bank. On 11/28, unidenti!ed assailants The New York Times ran (12/14) a long !red (11/28) 3 rockets from s. Lebanon special report on a 6-yr. U.S. investiga- into n. Israel, damaging 2 buildings in tion of the bank and its suspected role the western Galilee but causing no in- supporting terrorism. U.S. of!cials al- juries. Israel responded with artillery leged—though without releasing evi- !re on s. Lebanon, causing no reported dence—that the investigation revealed casualties or damage. The incident money laundering by the bank of mil- marked the 1st Lebanese-Israeli cross- lions of dollars from Hizballah criminal border attack since 10/2009. A claim of enterprises as well as signi!cant ties responsibility was issued in the name between Hizballah and Latin Ameri- of the Shaykh Abdallah Azzam Bri- can drug cartels. U.S. investigators said gades (which claims ties to al-Qa’ida), that the transactions also revealed a but there was no corroboration. Some pattern “in which entities tied to Hez- experts (e.g., BBC 8/6/2010) question bollah have been buying up militarily whether the brigades even exist, calling strategic pieces of property in largely it “name of convenience rather than an Christian areas” of Lebanon. Hizballah actual organisation.” Since 2004, attacks called the claims “politically motivated staged in Gaza, Iraq, Jordan, Syria, the propaganda.” U.S. admin. sources said Persian Gulf, Pakistan, and Japan have that when the connections !rst came been attributed to the group, which is to their attention in fall 2010, some ar- named for Palestinian from Jordan who gued that the Hizballah link should be volunteered to !ght the Russians in Af- left unstated, but the admin. changed ghanistan in the 1980s. course (1) after Hizballah brought down On 12/9, unidenti!ed assailants the Saad Hariri government and secured detonated a roadside bomb near a UN the appointment of an ally as PM and Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) pa- (2) when the UN tribunal accused Hiz- trol near Tyre in s. Lebanon, wound- ballah of involvement in Ra!q Hariri’s ing 5 French UNIFIL soldiers. No group assassination. claimed responsibility for the attack, the 3d targeting UNIFIL in 2011. (In 5/2011, Spy Cases 6 Italian UNIFIL soldiers were wounded On 11/20, the Los Angeles Times in Sidon; in 7/2011, 6 French UNIFIL broke the story that the CIA had re- soldiers were injured in the same area.) cently been forced to scale back its On 12/11, French FM Alain Juppe said operations in Lebanon because Hizbal- that France suspected the 12/9 attack to lah had identi!ed and detained some have “originated in Syria,” and former dozen informants on the CIA payroll Lebanese PM Saad Hariri called the at- using software analysis of cell phone tack a warning from Asad; neither of- records and calling patterns to iden- fered evidence. tify and track them and some of their Earlier, on 11/16, unidenti!ed assail- CIA handlers. Anonymous U.S. of!cials ants simultaneously detonated 2 bombs

JPS4103_12_Quarterly Updated.indd 185 07/06/12 4:40 PM 186 JOURNAL OF PALESTINE STUDIES

in Tyre, damaging a hotel and a liquor POPULAR PROTESTS REGIONWIDE store but causing no injuries. Though With the 1st anniversary this quar- the hotel was frequented by UN employ- ter of the Arab Spring protests that be- ees, the UN said (11/16) that it did not gan in 12/2010, much of the optimism believe its employees were targeted. of the initial months was gone, while uncertainty, instability, and continued SYRIA violence led many to dub the new phase the Arab Winter. Syria was entirely preoccupied with Most attention this quarter was fo- its domestic crisis this quarter (see “Re- cused on Syria, where violence was gional Affairs” below). The security escalating drastically, with widespread deterioration raised particular secu- reports of army defectors and armed rity concerns for Israel with possible protesters battling government forces broader rami!cations for Israeli-Arab and growing evidence of sectarian !ght- relations. Brie!ng the Knesset’s Foreign ing. Activists inside the country (orga- Affairs and Defense Comm., IDF chief nized in local coordination committees) of staff Lt. Gen. Benny Gantz said (1/10) had tacitly aligned with other, more that the IDF was preparing for a mas- formal internal and external opposi- sive in"ux of refugees into the Golan tion groups to form the Syrian National Heights if the Asad regime should fall, Council (SNC), intended as framework which in the IDF’s assessment was “in- for a transitional government (see QU evitable.” Israel would try to keep the in JPS 162 for background). As of 11/16, refugees in a strategic buffer zone be- the death toll since protests began in tween the Golan and Syria. Israel would 2/2011 had reached 3,500; 1,000s more likely move Alawite refugees to the di- had been injured and jailed, and as vided Alawite city of Ghajar straddling many as 24,000 had "ed the country for the Lebanon-Israel border to prevent Turkey and Lebanon. any con"ict between Alawis and the On 11/16, after Syria failed to re- Druze population of the Golan. spond to Arab League demands to Meanwhile, the Knesset passed (1/10) restore peace and move toward de- an amendment to an existing law to mocracy, withdraw troops, release po- discourage in!ltrators that makes it le- litical prisoners, and open talks with gal to detain illegal migrants and their the opposition, the League led by Qa- children for up to 3 years without trial. tar suspended Syria’s membership and Though directed at African migrant threatened economic sanctions. Almost workers attempting to enter Israel from immediately, army defectors claiming to Egypt, Israeli rights groups feared the be part of the Free Syrian Army (FSA) measure could be used to detain refu- attacked the Syrian air force intelligence gees "eeing violence in Syria. compound outside Damascus with ma- chine guns and rocket-propelled gre- REGIONAL AFFAIRS nades, marking an unprecedented offensive attack on a highly symbolic The only major regional meetings target. In response to intensi!ed raids related to the peace process this quar- by government forces, rebel forces ter was the Arab League session on staged further high-pro!le attacks on 2/12 to discuss the failure of the Israeli- Ba’ath Party of!ces in Damascus and Palestinian exploratory talks hosted by near the Turkish border. In an inter- Jordan (see “Jordan Hosts Israeli-Pal- view on 11/20, Asad declared that he estinian ‘Exploratory Talks’” above). In had no choice but to keep !ghting the addition to backing Abbas’s decision not dissidents and promised parliamentary to continue talks with Israel, the FMs, elections in 2/2012 or 3/2012 to form a at Abbas’s request, called for an interna- new government that would amend the tional conference to discuss the Pales- constitution to allow for presidential tinian issue. No !rm plans were made, elections, but did not give details or a however. Overall, regional attention was timeframe. highly focused on the Arab Spring pro- Meanwhile the Arab League had re- tests still sweeping the region. fused the Asad regime’s 11/18 insistence

JPS4103_12_Quarterly Updated.indd 186 07/06/12 4:40 PM UPDATE ON CONFLICT AND DIPLOMACY 187

on itself choosing the Arab League ob- it comes from.” The U.S. objected to servers it would allow into Syria, and the formula’s failure to differentiate be- on 11/27, the League overwhelmingly tween state violence and peaceful pro- approved (19–0, with Algeria, Iraq, and tests. As debate at the UNSC continued, Lebanon abstaining) economic sanc- the Arab League gave (12/17) Syria until tions cutting off all dealings with Syria’s 12/21 to sign a pledge to allow interna- central bank, freezing the assets of se- tional observers, withdraw forces, and nior Syrian of!cials, and barring Syr- open a dialogue with the opposition. ian diplomats from visiting Arab states. Qatar’s PM Hamad Bin Jasim Bin Jabr Member states stressed that their aim al-Thani said that if Asad did not sign, was not to overthrow Asad but to force the League would formally call on the him to compromise. Syria called (11/28) UNSC to take action. the move “economic war.” Bowing to pressure, Syria signed an On 11/28, the UN’s Independent In- agreement in Cairo on 12/19 acceding ternational Commission on Syria re- to conditions and allowing international leased a report based on interviews monitors into the country, specifying with 223 Syrian victims of violence that it would allow as many as 500 ob- that accused Syrian military and secu- servers to enter and be “free” to move rity forces of crimes against humanity around the country “under the protec- for the “systemic torturing and killing” tion” of government forces. The Arab of civilians since protests began, stat- League dispatched a team to Syria on ing concerns that incidents had been 12/22 to discuss logistics. Reports of underreported because of the govern- Syrian government atrocities against ci- ment’s tight control of the media and re- vilians and army defectors in Idlib and fusal to accept monitors. This paved the other areas near the Turkish border, way for UN Human Rights Commission coupled with acute shortages of fuel, (UNHRC) head Navi Pillay to declare heating oil, and medicine, led the SNC (12/1) that the violence in Syria had for the 1st time to endorse (12/20) the crossed into a state of civil war and for FSA’s role in the uprising and to broker the full UNHRC to approve (on 12/2 by an alliance with Syria’s 2d leading op- a vote of 37–4, with 6 [including China position group, the National Coordinat- and Russia] abstaining) a measure citing ing Comm. for Democratic Change. Syria for “gross and systemic” violations The !rst 50 Arab League observ- that may amount to crimes against hu- ers arrived in Syria on 12/26, demand- manity and calling for international in- ing 1st to go to Homs, where !ghting tervention to protect civilians. had been most violent. The army pulled Syria replied (12/5) by agreeing to tanks out of Homs before bringing the allow Arab League observers on the monitors into the city under tight es- condition that economic sanctions be cort, with thousands of residents turn- dropped immediately. In a rare pub- ing out to protest against the regime lic speech in Beirut on 12/6, Hizballah and to plead with observers to go leader Hassan Nasrallah gave clear sup- deeper into the city, where they claimed port to Asad, denouncing Turkey, the soldiers were still hiding in government U.S., Israel, and the SNC for trying to buildings or on the streets wearing ci- “destroy Syria,” which he called “a re- vilian dress or police uniforms. While sistance regime.” Meanwhile, violence more observers arrived over the coming on the ground continued unabated and days, this pattern of visible army escorts reports of sectarian violence escalated continued and violence failed to abate (including beheadings, dismemberment, signi!cantly overall. On 1/8, the Arab and torture; see NYT, WP 12/7). League held an emergency meeting to Russia, which with China had vetoed discuss whether to cancel the mission the !rst attempt at a UN Security Coun- in protest, but opted to continue until at cil (UNSC) res. in 10/2011 (see QU in least 1/19, when the monitors’ 1st report JPS 162), indicated (12/15) that it would was due. submit its own draft res. demanding On 1/10 and 1/11, Asad made 2 ma- that “all parties in Syria immediately jor speeches blaming foreign plotters stop any violence irrespective of where for the protests against his regime and

JPS4103_12_Quarterly Updated.indd 187 07/06/12 4:40 PM 188 JOURNAL OF PALESTINE STUDIES

warning that terrorism would be tackled calling for transition in Syria. Debate with an “iron !st.” In response, 4 Arab stretched over several days, with Rus- League observers quit (1/11, 1/12), say- sia insisting that the text not explicitly ing the mission had only bought Asad call for Asad to step down or authorize time to crush the opposition and call- foreign military intervention. On 2/2 ing the situation in Syria a “humanitar- UNSC members reached a “wobbly con- ian disaster.” By mid-1/2012, reports sensus” on a draft that they sent back suggested (e.g., NYT 1/15; WP 1/19, to their capitals for approval. In effort 1/20, 1/22) that Asad was losing control to get Russia and China onboard, draft- of some regions, particularly near the ers dropped speci!c reference to Asad Lebanese border, and that his author- leaving power and called for a volun- ity was waning in suburbs around Da- tary arms embargo and sanctions, but mascus and in Homs and Hama, noting kept wording acknowledging support that government checkpoints for the 1st for Arab League calls for an immedi- time were going up in Damascus. Qa- ate halt to violence and a “Syrian-led” tar’s emir called (1/14) for sending Arab transition to democracy (without af- troops to Syria to impose a cease-!re. !rming the Arab League’s call for Asad The Arab League met again on 1/19 to transfer authority to his VP, form a to receive the monitors’ !rst report, national unity government, and hold along with UN assessments that kill- new elections). Diplomats described ings had increased during the moni- (NYT 2/3) the wording as intended to tors’ mission (the UN put the number leave enough “constructive ambiguity” killed since 12/26 around 400; Syrian to convince Russia to sign on “with- human rights groups put the number out leaving the resolution open to wide at 746). On 1/22, member states agreed interpretation.” to extend the mission for 1 month After weeks of negotiations and the and, although Saudi Arabia withdrew Syrian government forces’ single dead- its contingent, to increase the num- liest attack (2/3) since the start of the ber of observers. It also called on Asad uprising (on Homs, leaving over 200 to transfer power immediately to his dead and up to 700 wounded), China VP, as Ali Abdallah Saleh had done in and Russia issued (2/4) their 2d joint Yemen, but did not specify which of veto when the new UNSC res. went to Asad’s 2 VPs—his close ally Farouk al- vote on 2/4, dealing a blow to U.S.-led Shara or Najah al-Attar, seen as closer efforts to rally international support for to the opposition—should receive au- the Arab League transition plan. Russian thority. The League plan (endorsed by amb. Vitaly Churkin said Moscow sim- all member states except Lebanon) also ply could not support a UN res. aimed called for negotiations with the opposi- at regime change and that unfairly tion to begin within 2 weeks, a national blamed only the Syrian government for unity government to be formed within 2 the violence. Following the vote, pro- months, and Asad to leave of!ce ahead testers attacked the Syrian embassies in of presidential and parliamentary elec- Egypt, Germany, Greece, and Kuwait; tions (to be held within 5 months). The the U.S. closed (2/6) its embassy and opposition, however, said (1/22) that it withdrew all diplomats from Syria; Gulf would not negotiate with the regime un- Cooperation Council states (Bahrain, til Asad until stepped down, all violence Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the ceased, and security forces were with- UAE) recalled (2/7) their ambassadors drawn. Asad rejected (1/23) the plan and expelled Syrian diplomats. Britain, outright. France, and Italy recalled (2/7) their am- On 1/26, with violence escalating bassadors; Tunisia expelled the Syrian across Syria and heavy government ambassador; and Jordan’s Muslim Broth- shelling in Homs, Hama, and Idlib, the erhood called (2/5) for a Muslim and Gulf states pulled out of the monitoring Arab boycott on Russian and Chinese mission, and on 1/28 the Arab League goods. suspended it altogether, after calling On 2/7, Russian FM Sergei Lavrov (1/24) on the UN to “address the es- met with Asad in Damascus to press calating crisis.” The UNSC convened him to talk to the opposition, essen- on 1/31 to debate an Arab-drafted res. tially telling him (according to WP 2/7,

JPS4103_12_Quarterly Updated.indd 188 07/06/12 4:40 PM UPDATE ON CONFLICT AND DIPLOMACY 189

2/8) that Russia had held off foreign unity or well-being, territorial integrity, military intervention for the moment, or that hinders state institutions.” but that if the crisis were not quickly At the close of the quarter, security resolved Moscow could not guarantee conditions in Syria continued to dete- what would happen. Meanwhile, Pres. riorate. By 2/2012, the UN stopped re- Obama dispatched (2/9) Asst. Secy. of vising its casualty estimates for Syria, State for Near East Affairs Jeremy Felt- deeming the situation too fast moving man to Morocco, France, and Bahrain to and the reports from the !eld impossi- help organize an inaugural “Friends of ble to con!rm. Its last estimate, released Syria” meeting (set for 2/24 in Tunis) to on 1/27, put the death toll at 5,400 explore ways the U.S., EU, and Arab al- (compared to the Syrian rights groups’ lies could isolate Asad and support the estimate on 1/5 of 6,874). oppositions. On 2/12, Arab League FMs In Yemen, by 11/16, Pres. Ali Ab- meeting in Cairo called for creation of dallah Salah had returned from an ex- a joint Arab-UN peacekeeping mission tended stay in Saudi Arabia (see QU for Syria and urged all member states in JPS 161), but an edict from his time to sever all diplomatic ties with the Syr- abroad transferring most powers to VP ian government and provide “all forms Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi was still in of political and !nancial support” to the effect. Saleh had agreed in principle to Syrian opposition. step down so that democratic elections Meanwhile, Asad’s assault on Homs could be held, but refused to !nalize continued, prompting the UNGA to hold the deal until his main political rival, (2/13) a public debate on Syria’s hu- Gen. Ali Mohsen al-Ahmar, agreed that man rights conduct. UNHRC head Pillay his clan would not run in elections or stated that “The failure of the [UNSC] hold positions of power in the future to agree on !rm collective action ap- government. Saleh also demanded im- pears to have emboldened the Syrian munity from prosecution for himself government to launch an all-out as- and his family, and the right to remain sault in an effort to crush dissent with head of the ruling General People’s overwhelming force,” adding that “the Congress (GPC). gross, widespread, and systematic hu- On 11/23, following news that Ye- man rights violations have not only con- men’s formal opposition (an alliance of tinued [since the UNSC vetoes], but also 6 parties not necessarily representing sharply escalated.” The same day, dip- the grassroots) had agreed to grant the lomats began drafting a UNGA res. on immunity if he would sign the transfer Syria that they hoped to send to vote of power deal immediately, Saleh re- within a week, with France lobbying to turned with opposition representatives include provisions for humanitarian aid to Saudi Arabia and signed the pact. corridors into Syria. Saleh’s remaining powers immediately In a preemptive move on 2/15, Asad transferred to Hadi, who would serve announced a vote for 2/26 on a new as interim president alongside a PM ap- draft constitution that would: (1) allow pointed by the opposition until elec- multiple political parties to run for the tions were held in 90 days (on 2/21/12). parliament (with elections held within On 11/27, Hadi appointed the opposi- 90 days of the constitution’s approval); tion’s choice, veteran independent poli- (2) limit the president to 27-year terms; tician Mohammed Basindwa, as PM and and (3) remove laws guaranteeing charged him with forming an interim Asad’s Ba’ath party political supremacy. government. Meanwhile, massive popu- The draft would, however, leave the po- lar protests erupted in Sana’a and Taiz litical system largely intact: the presi- to denounce the opposition for agree- dent would still have sweeping powers ing to immunity; on 11/24, demonstra- to decree laws and dissolve parliament, tors clashed with security forces in Taiz, authority to decide which parties could leaving 5 dead. run in elections, supreme control over The issue of Saleh’s control of the the security forces, and the right to ruling party had not been clari!ed un- take unspeci!ed “measures needed to der the 11/23 agreement and quickly remedy the situation” in the event of a proved to be an issue. Back in Ye- “grave danger that threatens national men on 11/26, Saleh promptly declared

JPS4103_12_Quarterly Updated.indd 189 07/06/12 4:40 PM 190 JOURNAL OF PALESTINE STUDIES

(11/27) amnesty for people who com- Hillary Clinton called (1/17) this a viola- mitted “follies during the crisis” (except tion of the agreements on ceding power. those behind the assassination attempt UN and U.S. diplomats quickly met with against him) and reportedly (WP 12/4) Yemeni of!cials, who reaf!rmed (1/18) issued other lesser decrees and contin- the plans for 2/21 elections. At the close ued to receive international dignitaries, of the quarter, Hadi was running for much as if he were still president. In president unopposed. addition, Saleh’s clan remained in !rm Saleh’s visa request to travel to U.S. control of the military. By 12/1, oppo- for medical care was approved on 1/22, sition parties and the GPC agreed on and he departed immediately via Oman, an interim unity cabinet, sworn in on vowing to return to Yemen in time for 12/10, where key ministries (e.g., de- the swearing in of the new president fense, foreign affairs, oil) remained in after the 2/21 elections. Separately, an the hands of the GPC and the opposi- aide said (1/22) that Saleh planned to tion !gures heading other ministries return before elections and to remain had all previously served in Saleh gov- afterward as leader of the GPC. ernments. From the time the govern- In Egypt, the Supreme Council of ment makeup was announced, popular the Armed Forces (SCAF), the interim protests escalated in Sana’a and Taiz, military government headed by Field leaving another 56 dead by 12/5. Marshall Mohammed Hussein Tantawi On 12/23, an estimated 500,000 dem- that took power in 2/2011, had stated onstrators took part in the largest na- intentions to retain full control after tionwide protests to date to call on the parliamentary elections (slated to begin new government not to grant immunity on 11/21) and until formation of a new to Saleh and his family. Government constitutional assembly, rati!cation of a forces controlled by Saleh’s son opened new constitution, and election of a new !re on the crowds, killing at least 9 pro- president—a process they said could testers and wounding 200 wounded. stretch beyond 2013 (see QU in JPS 162 About the same time, labor unions be- for background). On 11/16, the U.S. for gan to strike, demanding the removal of the !rst time publicly warned SCAF corrupt supervisors with ties to Saleh, that continued insistence on holding while Islamist forces stepped up at- power and delaying transition to civilian tacks on government forces around the rule threatened to undermine the Arab country. Spring movement regionwide and could The day of the massive protests lead to new domestic violence. (12/23), Saleh for the !rst time hinted Parliamentary voting began a week that he would leave for the U.S. “not for late and was held in 3 rounds: 11/28–29, treatment, but to get out of sight . . . to 12/14–15, and 1/3–4. Voter turnout was calm the atmosphere for the unity gov- estimated at more than 60%. Voting was ernment to hold the presidential elec- smooth, with no violence or serious im- tion.” The U.S. said (11/23) that it was proprieties reported. Islamists were the considering granting his visa request overwhelming winners but no single “for the sole purpose of medical treat- party secured a majority. The Muslim ment,” but had not decided. Anonymous Brotherhood’s (MB) Freedom and Jus- sources indicated (e.g., NYT 1/5, WP tice Party (FJP) was the top vote getter 1/22) that the U.S. was quietly looking (41%), followed by the ultraconservative for a 3d country to grant him asylum. Sala!st al-Nour Party (21%). The FJP On 1/8, the interim cabinet rati!ed opted to form (1/17) broad-based co- the provisions of the 11/23 agreement alition with centrist, liberal, and leftist granting Saleh and his senior of!cials parties, but gave the al-Nour party sev- amnesty from prosecution for any crime eral top cabinet positions to guarantee committed during his rule, precipitat- that the government “expresses national ing new nationwide protests demanding unity.” that Saleh be tried. On 1/17, Saleh met The makeup of the coalition govern- with high-level security of!cials to pro- ment was considered key since it would pose that elections be put off until 5/22 be the new cabinet that would select because of the deteriorating security sit- the committee to draft Egypt’s new con- uation in the country. U.S. Secy. of State stitution. SCAF brie"y threatened (12/7)

JPS4103_12_Quarterly Updated.indd 190 07/06/12 4:40 PM UPDATE ON CONFLICT AND DIPLOMACY 191

to assume the role of selecting the con- State Dept. could certify that Egypt was stitution committee because the newly committed to fair elections, was abid- elected Islamist-dominated parliament ing by the 1979 peace treaty with Israel, was not “representative enough,” but and had enacted policies to “protect retracted (12/9) under the pressure of freedom of speech, association, religion massive popular protests. and due process of law.” (The new law Separately, however, the MB agreed included a presidential waiver provision, (1/8) to SCAF demands to allow the but the administration stated its inten- SCAF-appointed caretaker PM to re- tion to use the legislation as leverage main in place until a new constitution with Egypt.) The issue remained unre- was approved and presidential elec- solved at the close of the quarter. tions were held (both to be completed Also of note: Deposed pres. Husni in 6/2012). The MB also said it would Mubarak’s trial (for ordering the deaths distance itself from radical Islamist par- of antigovernment protesters) resumed ties in hopes that the U.S. would con- on 12/28, with closing arguments made tinue present aid levels to Egypt. The on 1/5. The prosecution asked for the decision regarding the PM prompted death penalty, but the verdict was not popular protests against the MB for be- expected until 6/2012. ing too willing to accommodate SCAF Conditions in postrevolution Libya and against SCAF for obstructing the remained very unstable as the coun- transition to democracy. On 1/31, the try headed to elections in 6/2012. The MB physically blocked protesters call- Transitional National Council (TNC) ing for the immediate ouster of SCAF struggled to transform itself from a from reaching the parliament building, loosely organized rebel coalition based deeply angering the protesters. On 2/15, in Benghazi to an interim government SCAF, under popular pressure to trans- headquartered in Tripoli. Demonstra- fer power quickly, agreed to move presi- tors in Benghazi held several large pro- dential elections up to 5/2012 instead of test (e.g., 12/12, 1/22) against the TNC’s 6/2012. lack of transparency and the slow pace Meanwhile, 3 U.S. democracy-build- of reforms, prompting some turnover ing organizations and 3 other nonpro!ts of midlevel positions. Meanwhile, TNC in Cairo were raided and sealed (12/29) efforts to forge a "edging Libyan Na- in an escalation by SCAF, which had re- tional Army (LNA; intended to integrate peatedly accused foreign organizations the nation’s militias) foundered as the of orchestrating the Arab Spring revolt. regional militias carved up control of The U.S. immediately denounced the Tripoli and divided the country into action as the most de!nitive indication !efdoms. The militias were given un- to date that the military rulers did not til 12/20 to leave the capital, and while intend to cede power and warned that they did remove most checkpoints and U.S. aid could be withheld. Nonetheless, limited their visible presence, they still on 1/25, SCAF barred 6 Americans and controlled their bases in the capital, re- 40 foreigners overall who worked for fusing to give them up until a credible prodemocracy nongovernmental orga- central security force was in place. TNC nizations (NGO)s, including the son of head Mustafa Abdel-Jalil, while continu- a U.S. cabinet secy., from leaving Egypt. ing preparations for a summer vote, Though the individuals had been ac- warned (1/4) that deadly tribal militia credited by the Egyptian government, clashes in Tripoli could lead to civil war. they were threatened with prosecution Tunisia, which held its 1st demo- on charges of tax evasion, entering the cratic elections for a constituent as- country on tourist visas to work, and il- sembly in 10/2011 after ousting Pres. legally training Egyptian political party Zine El Abidine Ben Ali in 1/2011 (see personnel. The U.S. threatened twice QU in JPS 162 for background), swore more (1/25, 2/4) to withhold military in a new cabinet on 11/21 that in- aid, calling the incident a “dramatic cluded a PM from the Islamist Ennahda worsening” in its relations with Egypt. party (the biggest vote getter), a presi- By early 2/2012, Congress had approved dent from the Congress for the Repub- new restrictions, including that aid to lic party (2d biggest vote getter), and a Egypt could only be transferred if the speaker from the left-of-center Ettakatol

JPS4103_12_Quarterly Updated.indd 191 07/06/12 4:40 PM 192 JOURNAL OF PALESTINE STUDIES

party (3d biggest vote getter). The as- corruption and calling for the emir sembly was expected to call general to step down. Those who entered the elections for 7/2012. building sang the national anthem and Morocco held (11/25) its 1st parlia- then dispersed. Police beat some pro- mentary elections since adopting a new testers, moderately injuring 5. As a re- constitution in 7/2011 against the back- sult, the PM (on 11/28) and the cabinet ground of popular prodemocracy pro- (on 11/29) resigned. The emir dissolved tests (see QU in JPS 161). A moderate (12/6) parliament and called for new Islamist party, the Justice and Develop- elections on 2/2. Opposition groups, ment Party (JDP), won, taking 107 seats. including hardline Islamist parties, The former ruling Istiqlal Party came in won the majority of the parliament in 2d, winning 60 seats. On 11/28, King the voting, but the royal family main- Muhammad VI, who under the new con- tained full control over key government stitution had to pick a PM from the win- positions. ning party rather than the person of his Isolated antigovernment demonstra- choice, appointed the JDP’s Abdellilah tions were also reported in Jordan (e.g., Benkirane as Morocco’s 1st PM from an 11/17) and Saudi Arabia (e.g., 1/13, 2/9, Islamist party. Benkirane’s government, 2/10). sworn in on 1/3, allotted top posts to the JDP but also kept allies of the king HAMAS GAUGES THE ARAB SPRING in key positions. In Bahrain, sporadic antigovernment This quarter, the deep effects of the protests were reported throughout the Arab Spring on Hamas became appar- quarter—a sign of persisting tensions. ent. Logistically, it became impractical The opposition continued to demand for Hamas to maintain its operational transition to a constitutional monarchy headquarters in Damascus because of in which the royal family would “gov- the deteriorating security conditions ern without powers.” On 11/23, an in- and the increased tensions with the dependent investigative comm. (invited Asad regime, which pressured Hamas to by Bahrain’s king and led by an Italian voice support for its crackdown. After jurist and human rights expert M. Cherif nearly 6 weeks of rumors that Hamas Bassiouni) issued its !nal report, which was scaling back its presence in Syria, concluded that security forces tortured Hamas of!cials announced on 1/17 that and abused prodemocracy protesters, the leadership had decided to evacuate killing at least 30 during the 2011 dem- their families. By 2/4, Hamas con!rmed onstrations. The king welcomed the re- that all its of!cials had left Syria and port and pledged reform, while human that it had closed its Damascus head- rights activists called for the immediate quarters temporarily but inde!nitely. release of those arrested during pro- Of note: Hamas leader Mishal’s family tests, reinstatement of activists purged reportedly moved to Amman, while the from government jobs, and prosecution family of his second in command, Musa of those in the security forces involved Abu Marzuq, relocated to Cairo. in torture. None of these demands were While many analysts speculated that met. On 1/15, the king announced new Hamas’s center of operations would constitutional reforms that would give likely shift to Egypt, Jordan, or Qatar, the elected parliament more power, but others believed that Hamas would not the opposition said the changes did not centralize in 1 new location but would go far enough. In particular, the reforms create multiple main of!ces. Cambridge did not give the parliament power to expert Khaled Hroub argued (NYT dismiss the appointed PM (the king’s 1/30) that “with newly emerging gov- uncle, Prince Khalifa bin Sulayman al- ernments in the post-Arab Spring era, Khalifa, in place since 1971). many of them Islamist, Hamas wants In Kuwait, which had seen small to be hosted and embraced and to have protests since the Arab Spring began, of!ces in these countries.” Hroub ar- antigovernment protesters and members gued that for Hamas led by Mishal to of opposition parties stormed the par- embrace the Arab Spring’s promotion of liament building on 11/16, while others nonviolence marked a “paradigm shift” rallied outside denouncing government for the movement and should make it

JPS4103_12_Quarterly Updated.indd 192 07/06/12 4:40 PM UPDATE ON CONFLICT AND DIPLOMACY 193

easier for new governments to welcome be given even greater authority as “gen- and support it. eral supervisor” of a new PMB. As far as Hamas “inside,” senior Of note: At a massive Hamas rally in Hamas of!cial in Gaza Mahmud Zahar Gaza City on 12/14 to mark the move- stated (ca. 12/21) that Hamas overall ment’s 24th anniversary, the "ags of felt strengthened and validated by the the all Arab states except Syria’s were popular support shown for Islamist par- displayed. ties in countries affected by the Arab Spring, and suggested that the new Tu- ISRAEL POISED TO INCREASE COVERT nisian model of power sharing among OPERATIONS ABROAD Islamist and secular nationalist parties could be a model for Palestine. Hamas’s IDF chief of staff Lt. Gen. Benny acting PM in Gaza, Ismail Haniyeh, Gantz announced (12/8) that in light of made 2 diplomatic tours abroad—the the dramatically increasing number of 1st since Hamas seized control of Gaza covert foreign operations Israel had un- in 2007—to promote the movement’s dertaken in the previous year, the Israeli interests in light of the Arab Spring, in- DMin. had formed a new operational cluding seeking !nancial help to rebuild branch called the Depth Corps speci!- Gaza. The 1st tour (12/25–ca. 1/7) took cally to handle special operations “deep him to Egypt, Sudan, Turkey, and Tu- in enemy territory.” The new branch nisia; the 2d tour (1/30–2/12) included (separate from the existing Northern, Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, and Iran. Southern, and Central Commands) would Meanwhile, Hamas’s former rep. in be headed by former special operations London, Mustafa Lidawi, stated (1/17) commander Maj. Gen. Shai Avital and that Mishal had decided to retire and would pull and coordinate resources would not seek another term as polit- from the military’s various elite com- buro head when the organization held mando units on an ad hoc basis, depend- its next elections in the coming months ing on the mission. While Israel never (Hamas keeps the date secret) to allow of!cially con!rms or denies covert op- “a fresh leader to steer Hamas towards erations abroad, media reports over the a new strategy.” While another Hamas previous year have indicated Israeli op- of!cial con!rmed this on 1/21, others erations in Sudan (targeting arms traf!c denied (1/17, 1/21) that Mishal’s deci- to Hizballah and Hamas), Iran, Lebanon, sion to leave the post he had held since and Syria. According to Ha’Aretz (12/18), 1996 was !nal. Some analysts (e.g., NYT since most recent covert operations tar- 1/30) believed that Lidawi’s statement geted Iran, IDF insiders were commonly was a ploy orchestrated by Mishal to referring to the Depth Corps as “Iran generate grassroots calls for him to stay Command.” (For more information see on, which would give his leadership of the Amos Harel article “Appointment of the movement added legitimacy, par- IDF’s New ‘Iran Command’ Chief Raises ticularly vis-à-vis more militant strains Eyebrows” in the Selections from the of Hamas. Other experts (e.g., Carn- Press section in this issue.) egie Endowment expert Nathan Brown, On a similar note: Jerusalem Post In- “Is Hamas Mellowing?” released 1/17), ternational republished (1/6) Sudanese however, thought Mishal might be sin- media reports claiming that in the pre- cere, arguing that his departure as po- vious month, the Israeli air force struck litburo head could signal a new stage of at least 2 weapons convoys in Sudan Hamas’s reform and evolution process believed to be headed for Gaza. The Su- (begun in 2005, when Hamas decided danese military denied the reports, and to participate in the 1/2006 elections) Israel declined to comment. The Israeli in light of the Arab Spring. According navy has been operating in the Red Sea to this analysis, the aim could be to re- in recent years in effort to halt arms cast the movement less as a resistance smuggling to Hamas and Hizballah. group and more as a Palestinian Muslim Brotherhood (PMB), giving more em- CYBERTERROR AND ISRAEL phasis to the movement’s religious, edu- cational, social, charitable, and political A computer hacker identifying him- dimensions. In this case, Mishal might self as a Saudi Arabian teenager with

JPS4103_12_Quarterly Updated.indd 193 07/06/12 4:40 PM 194 JOURNAL OF PALESTINE STUDIES

the handle 0xOmar hacked (1/6) 3 Is- relations with Turkey, adding that Israel raeli credit card companies and pub- viewed its military ties with Turkey as lished online the credit card data and “extremely important” and hoped they security information of more than would improve. Of!cials also revealed 20,000 Israelis. While unable to con- that the diplomatic strains had made it !rm the identity of the hacker or hack- uncomfortable for Israel to send teams ers, the Israeli government called it an to Turkey for service provision under act of cyberterrorism intended to harm existing military contracts; instead, Tur- the Israeli economy. On 1/15, 0xOmar key had been shipping equipment to emailed the Israeli daily Yedi’ot Aha- Israel for repair. ronot to warn that “pro-Palestinian cy- The Knesset’s Education and Culture berattackers called Nightmare” planned Committee held (12/26) its 1st open, to disrupt the websites of El Al airlines televised debate on whether Israel and the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange. Both should declare an of!cial day to mark sites were overloaded with access at- the massacre of Armenians by Turkey tempts for several hours on 1/16. during World War I. For years, left-wing In retaliation, Israeli hackers brought parties have been lobbying for a com- down (1/17) the Saudi Arabian Mon- memorative day, arguing that it is Isra- etary Agency and the Abu Dhabi Secu- el’s duty to remember other “genocides.” rities and Exchange websites, released Previous debates had been held behind the email addresses and passwords of closed doors to avoid straining relations 89 Saudi university students, and stole with Turkey. This is the 1st year that and threatened to release the Facebook right-wing parties, angry at Turkey for login information of 30,000 account other political reasons, seemed ready holders in Muslim countries (85,000 by to support the motion, but the commit- 1/19 and as many as 1 million by 1/25). tee took no decision. (Of note: In the One of the Israeli hackers, Anonymous previous week, Turkey cut political and 972, issued a statement saying “Usually economic ties with France, suspended we do not like to hurt innocent sites, military coordination, and recalled its but there is now a cyber war, and every ambassador from Paris to protest a war has victims. . . . Every time an Is- new law making it illegal to deny that raeli site get[s] hacked, the same thing the Armenian killings amounted to will happen to Saudi sites.” The Israeli genocide.) hacker Hannibal Hacker, who claimed Turkish PM Recep Tayyip Erdogan to have the Facebook information, also received Hamas’s acting PM in Gaza, claimed that he could publish bank ac- Ismail Haniyeh, in Ankara on 1/1 count details of 10 million Arabs and for talks on regional issues. Erdogan the credit card details of 4 million Arabs praised Hamas-Fatah reconciliation ef- if cyberattacks on Israel continued. forts and expressed hope that progress would be made toward bringing Hamas into the PNC. Turkish of!cials denied TURKEY media reports that Erdogan had pledged As Turkey shifted attention to the substantial aid to fund the budget of deteriorating situation in neighboring the Hamas authority in Gaza and down- Syria, it took no active part in Palestin- played the possibility that Hamas might ian or peace process issues this quarter. open an of!ce in Turkey soon, but said Meanwhile, relations between Turkey that Turkey might contribute to interna- and Israel, which fell out over Israel’s tional humanitarian projects to rehabili- 2008–9 Operation Cast Lead assault on tate Gaza. Gaza, remained strained, although rela- tively close military relations continued. IRAN Israel canceled (12/23) a $141 m. con- tract to supply Turkey with an advanced This quarter, the U.S. aggressively aerial intelligence system. While Israel lobbied allies to support a slow but refused to state the reason publicly, steady tightening of international sanc- anonymous DMin. of!cials said (12/23) tions on Iran over several months in that the decision related directly to the the aim of convincing Iran to back technology involved, not to strained away from pursuing a nuclear weapons

JPS4103_12_Quarterly Updated.indd 194 07/06/12 4:40 PM UPDATE ON CONFLICT AND DIPLOMACY 195

program. At the same time, the U.S. following day (11/29), Iranians attacked pressed major oil-producing allies to and ransacked the British embassy and increase production to keep world sup- a separate diplomatic residence in Teh- plies up and prices down. While some ran in what observers called (WP 11/30) (especially Israel) wanted immediate an “apparently deliberate decision by sanctions, the U.S. warned that impos- Iranian authorities to allow demonstra- ing sanctions too quickly could cause tors and paramilitary members to pil- oil prices to spike and leave countries lage the two sites.” On 12/1, Britain dependent on Iranian oil with no time closed its embassy in Tehran, expelled to !nd alternative sources, meaning that all Iranian diplomats from London, and Iran could actually gain !nancially from downgraded its ties with Iran to the the sanctions. China and Russia (ma- lowest level short of complete rupture. jor economic and defense partners with Days later (on 12/1), the EU approved Tehran) were particularly opposed to another round of sanctions on Iran, sanctions, arguing that Iran had a right expanding bans on economic transac- to pursue nuclear energy and no solid tions to 180 Republican Guard of!cials proof that Iran had a nuclear weapons allegedly tied to Iran’s nuclear activ- program existed. ity and to companies af!liated to them, notably including Iran’s main shipping Signi!cant New Bilateral Sanctions line. On 1/23, the EU, which receives As the quarter opened, the U.S. nearly 6% of its crude from Iran, agreed hoped that the International Atomic En- that as of 7/2012 it would ban new oil ergy Agency (IAEA) governing board deals with Iran and bar Iranian Central would issue a strong statement against Bank deposits in the EU with “limited Iran to facilitate the sanctions cam- exemptions to permit the continuation paign, but the IAEA board, while con- of legitimate trade.” (Iran called this an cerned by Iran’s actions, did not want to act of “economic war.”) By then, China be seen as giving the U.S. political cover had cut back its purchases of Iranian oil for hostile actions. When the board met and was looking (along with Japan and on 11/18, it formally reprimanded Iran South Korea) for alternative suppliers or for suspicious nuclear activity and ex- resources to avoid violating the interna- pressed “deep and increasing concern tional embargos. about the unresolved issues” (wording Meanwhile, the U.S. incorporated the welcomed by the U.S.). However, it de- proposed sanctions into its Defense Au- ferred any discussion of sanctions or thorization Act for 2012, with the White other consequences of Iran’s continued House demanding wording that would lack of cooperation until spring 2012, allow Obama to waive sanctions if they when IAEA inspectors would update caused sharp increases in oil prices or their assessments. threatened national security, thereby Citing the IAEA reprimand, the U.S., giving the administration a way to re- Britain, Canada, France, and the EU an- duce the impact on allies if necessary. nounced (11/21) plans for a coordinated The act passed both houses of Congress increase in bilateral sanctions aimed at by late-12/2011 and was signed into law cutting off Iran’s access to international by Pres. Obama on 1/2. The U.S. is- markets through barring their own sued more sanctions on 2/6, giving U.S. banks from dealing with any foreign banks additional powers to freeze as- bank that conducts business with Iran’s sets linked to the Iranian regime and to central or commercial banks. The move close loopholes in previous sanctions was expected to be hard on some al- legislation passed by the U.S. and EU to lies, such as Japan, that were dependent deprive Iran of oil income. on Iranian oil and needed to engage in The new sanctions had quick and transactions with Iranian banks to make dramatic impact. By mid-12/2011, Iran’s purchases. currency value was in free fall against Britain was the !rst to enact legisla- the dollar in panic selling sparked by tion imposing the agreed new sanctions, domestic concerns about Iran’s grow- effective 11/23. Iran retaliated (11/28) ing international isolation and possible by expelling the British ambassador additional sanctions. (The riyal hit re- and downgrading diplomatic ties. The cord lows in black-market trading on

JPS4103_12_Quarterly Updated.indd 195 07/06/12 4:40 PM 196 JOURNAL OF PALESTINE STUDIES

12/20, 1/2, 1/5, and 1/18, losing more inspection team made a 3-day visit from than 35% of its value by 12/20 and more 1/29 to 1/31. Iran, clearly hoping to than 63% by 1/18, compared to 9/30/11 lower tensions with the West, offered prices.) As a consequence, prices of ba- (1/30) to extend the visit if the IAEA so sic goods in Iran soared, prompting requested. The IAEA declined, however, Iranians to start hoarding essential sup- noting (2/1) that the meetings had been plies and to openly worry about war cordial but that Iran still refused to an- with the West. Economists called (see swer key questions regarding research NYT, WP 12/21) this the most serious that appeared related to nuclear war- !nancial crisis Iran had faced in recent head designs. The IAEA team planned memory. The Washington Post (1/6) de- to return for another visit on 2/21. At scribed government of!cials and ana- the very end of the quarter, after 3 lysts across Western capitals as viewing weeks of inaction, Iran’s nuclear nego- these developments with “cautious sat- tiator Jalili sent (2/15) Ashton a formal isfaction” and U.S. of!cials as feeling letter welcoming and accepting the EU’s “vindication of a year-long policy of in- 10/2011 call for new P5+1 talks to de- creasing pressure, including through fuse the crisis, of!cially opening pros- clandestine operations, on Iran’s clerical pects for renewed talks. rulers without provoking war.” Shows of Force Iran’s New Diplomatic Offers Throughout the quarter, Iran pep- Amid public panic, Iran made dip- pered its diplomacy with threats or lomatic offers to the IAEA regarding shows of force. For example, it repeat- inspections and to the P5+1 (the 5 per- edly warned (e.g., 12/27, 1/2, 2/15) that manent UNSC members and Germany) if further sanctions were imposed, it regarding negotiations. With regard to would cut off oil exports to countries the IAEA, Iran invited (12/19) of!cials observing the sanctions and block the to visit Iran to discuss their concerns, Strait of Hormuz (which provides vital but the IAEA replied (12/19) that it access to 20% of the world’s oil supply). would not send a team unless Iran spe- In late-12/2011, it held 10-day naval ex- ci!cally agreed to a serious investiga- ercises in the strait to test new missile tion and discussion of allegations that and torpedo systems. In response, Israel Iran had undertaken secret research announced (1/5) plans to take part in on nuclear arms (requests previously the largest joint exercises yet (Austere refused). On 1/13, Iran gave the IAEA Challenge 12) with the U.S., intended to assurances that these issues could be improve missile defense coordination. discussed if an IAEA team were sent. Days later (on 1/15), however, the U.S. With regard to the P5+1, Iran’s chief delayed the exercises until late 2012, nuclear negotiator, Saeed Jalili, publicly stating that it did not want to raise mili- called (12/31) on the group to open a tary tensions with Iran further. new round of talks concerning its nu- In addition, Iran tested (1/1) a new clear program, stating that he would medium-range radar-evading missile soon send a formal letter to EU for- (1/1), new laser-guided artillery shells eign policy chief Catherine Ashton. In (1/30), and a drone capable of carry- 10/2011, after the last round of serious ing a tiny (11-lb.) payload (1/30). By discussions ended in 1/2011 (see QUs way of comparison, Israel tested (1/30) in JPS 159 and 162), Ashton had called a modi!ed long-range Heron TP (Ei- for a resumption of talks and had since tan) drone, which some believed (see been waiting for a serious reply. When NYT 1/31) was being re!tted for a pos- the P5+1 did not immediately comment sible military strike on Iran. The Heron on Jalili’s call, Pres. Mahmoud Ahma- TP is typically !tted with jamming and dinejad publicly stated (1/26) that Iran intelligence equipment but has a 1-ton was ready to resume negotiations with payload capacity capable of carrying a the P5+1. Ashton welcomed (1/26) this bunker busting bomb. It can stay aloft statement but warned that talks must be for 40 hours, travel 4,600 miles, and meaningful. perform in-"ight refueling missions. Ultimately, the 2 initiatives pro- The modi!ed drone crashed on test duced nothing of substance. The IAEA "ight.

JPS4103_12_Quarterly Updated.indd 196 07/06/12 4:40 PM UPDATE ON CONFLICT AND DIPLOMACY 197

On 1/1, Iran announced that it had indication that the Iranians have made a produced and tested its 1st domestically decision to develop a nuclear weapon,” produced nuclear fuel rods—a step to- Panetta reasserted on 1/29 that Iran ward being able to run a full nuclear could build a nuclear weapon within a fuel cycle without foreign assistance. year and could build a delivery system On 1/8, Iran declared that it had be- within a year or two beyond that. He gun enriching uranium at its Fordo un- went further on 2/2, telling the Wash- derground facility near Qom, a claim ington Post that Israeli of!cials had that nuclear experts said (e.g., NYT, recently indicated to him a “strong like- WP 1/19) was plausible but impossible lihood” that Israel would strike Iran be- to con!rm. In a major address on 2/15, tween 4/2012 and 6/2012. Iranian pres. Ahmadinejad and Supreme Similarly, U.S. Dir. of National Intel- Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei claimed ligence James Clapper, testifying be- to have inserted the 1st domestically fore Congress on 1/31, cited the alleged produced rod made from fuel produced Iranian plot to assassinate the Saudi at Fordo into Iran’s medical research re- ambassador to the U.S. (see QU in JPS actor in Tehran. A senior U.S. security 162) to declare that Iran had “crossed of!cial, speaking anonymously, noted a threshold in its adversarial relation- (WP 2/16) that the ability to make fuel ship” with the U.S. and was prepared rods for the medical reactor domesti- to launch terrorist attacks on U.S. soil. cally “in no way enhances Iran’s ability Other intelligence of!cials at the session to make nuclear weapons.” Commenting acknowledged, however, that they had on these actions, the U.S. called them seen no evidence that Iran was actively “provocative acts, de!ant acts, state- plotting any attacks. (Of note: Iran’s in- ments that are designed to distract at- telligence chief met with Saudi of!cials tention from the demonstrated impact in Riyadh on 12/14 to refute U.S. claims that the sanctions are having” and that that Iran plotted an assassination on it did not take the threats seriously. U.S. soil. No details were released.) Meanwhile, Pres. Obama report- Israel and the U.S. Send Mixed edly (Washington Jewish Week 1/5) had Signals on a Preemptive Strike been aggressively attempting to per- While U.S. and Israeli of!cials toned suade the Netanyahu admin. that sanc- down the calls for a preemptive mili- tions could sway Iran without a military tary strike on Iran that were made last strike, but the Netanyahu government quarter (see QU in JPS 162), ongoing remained divided (see QU in JPS 162 for speculation about the possibility and background). Obama dispatched Joint advisability of such a strike raised ten- Chiefs of Staff (JSC) head Gen. Martin sions throughout this quarter. Dempsey to Israel (1/19–21) to coor- U.S. Defense Secy. Leon Panetta, who dinate positions on Iran and regional as a congressman had prized his close security and to urge Israel against a pre- relations with Israeli of!cials, dropped emptive strike. Dempsey met with IDF several statements indicating that Israel chief of staff Lt. Gen. Benny Gantz on and U.S. were at least studying the con- 1/20; with PM Netanyahu, Pres. Peres, tingency of a preemptive strike on Iran, and DM Barak on 1/21; and again with though the Obama admin. discouraged Gantz and senior IDF commanders on notions that active consideration of a 1/21. While no details were released, Is- strike was underway. For example, in raeli DM Barak told IDF Radio (1/18) on an interview on 12/19, Panetta said that the eve of the visit that Israel’s decision in “sometime around a year” Iran would on whether to strike Iran was “very far be able to produce a nuclear weapon, off” and that Israel did not believe that adding that if Iran has “a hidden fa- Iran had either started building nuclear cility somewhere” enriching uranium, weapons or ended IAEA oversight of the window could be even narrower. its facilities. (Barak had also previously Though the Pentagon clari!ed (12/20) stated on 12/1 that Israel had no plans that Panetta was basing his statements “at the moment” to make a preemptive “on a highly aggressive timeline and a strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities.) series of actions that Iran has not yet The tone of Israeli speakers at Isra- taken” and stated that the U.S. has “no el’s annual Herzliya policy and security

JPS4103_12_Quarterly Updated.indd 197 07/06/12 4:40 PM 198 JOURNAL OF PALESTINE STUDIES

conference on 2/3 was entirely differ- military base on 11/12/11 that killed ent, however. DM Barak notably re- an Iranian general involved with Iran’s versed himself, making one of Israel’s nuclear program and 20 Republican strongest calls to date for a preemptive Guard members including several se- strike to contain Iran, stating: “Who- nior military of!cers (see QU in JPS ever says ‘later’ may !nd that later is 162) may have been carried out by too late.” Also at the conference, Israel’s Mossad and likely dealt a major setback Dep. PM Moshe Ya’alon claimed that to Iran’s long-range missile program. an Iranian missile testing site had been (Iran claimed the explosion was an ac- developing missiles with a long-range cident.) Similar explosions at an alleged capability to strike the United States uranium enrichment facility near Is- (more than 6,000 mi.). U.S. experts and fahan that caused no reported injuries of!cials discounted (NYT 2/3) this, say- (11/28) and at a steel plant that killed 7 ing that such assertions were “at best Iranians (12/12) raised suspicions that premature and at worst badly exagger- foreign saboteurs were again at work. In ated,” noting that the maximum range addition, on 1/11, Iranian nuclear sci- of Iran’s existing rockets was 1,200 mi. entist Mostafa Ahmadi-Roshan and his and that Iran was known to be working bodyguard were killed in a car bomb- on rockets with a 2,000-mi. capability. ing in Tehran, making Ahmadi-Roshan Meanwhile, a number of Israeli intel- the 4th nuclear scientist assassinated ligence and academic assessments con- in 2 years. Iran blamed the U.S. and Is- cluded (see WP 1/27) that concerns that rael. The Obama admin. denied (1/11) a preemptive military strike on Iran’s involvement; Israel refused to con!rm nuclear targets would result in a major or deny. (For more on Israeli and U.S. Iranian retaliation or regional war were covert actions against Iran, see the ar- overblown (arguably making a preemp- ticle “False Flag” by Mark Perry in the tive strike more attractive). Selections from the Press section in this Finally, U.S. military of!cials con- issue.) !rmed (12/14) that when the U.S. On 12/4, a U.S. stealth surveillance completed its exit from Iraq later that drone crashed inside Iran. Anonymous month, Iraq would have no planes or U.S. of!cials con!rmed (e.g., WP 12/8) missiles to prevent an unauthorized that the drone was part of a "eet of over"ight of its territory until the !rst CIA-operated RQ-170s that had been shipment of F-16s ordered from the U.S. surveilling Iran’s nuclear sites for at arrived in fall 2012. Military experts ac- least 4 years. They also noted that the knowledged (WT 12/15) that this would CIA had recently stepped up surveil- give Israel “a theoretical window of lance and covert operations against Iran about 12 months if it wants to "y over while increasing arms sales to regional Iraq unimpeded” to strike Iran, but also allies (including bunker busters and noted that conditions would make it !ghter jets) in what they called a mod- equally easier for Iran to target Israel by est strategy shift to increase pressure on air or land. Tehran. They did not see the crash as a Rhetoric and speculation aside, major intelligence failure or loss, stating Obama stated at the close of the quarter that given the extent of operations, “it (on 2/4) that he did not believe that Is- was never a matter of whether we were rael was preparing a preemptive strike going to lose [a drone] but when.” Iran on Iran. While not ruling out military formally protested U.S. "ights of spy intervention and stating that Israel was drones over its territory to the UNSC on right to be very concerned about Iran’s 12/9. nuclear program, he stressed that diplo- Also of note: Iran sentenced (1/9) a macy was the “preferred solution.” former U.S. Marine of Iranian descent, Amir Mirzaei Hekmati, to death for al- Covert Operations against Iran legedly spying for the CIA. His lawyers The U.S. and Israel also appar- immediately appealed to Iran’s Supreme ently kept up efforts to destabilize Iran Court. Hekmati, a dual U.S.-Iranian citi- through covert operations. Analysts zen born in Arizona, was detained in this quarter concluded (NYT 12/5) that Iran in late 8/2011 or early 9/2011 while a mysterious explosion at an Iranian in Iran to visit his grandmothers. (Iran

JPS4103_12_Quarterly Updated.indd 198 07/06/12 4:40 PM UPDATE ON CONFLICT AND DIPLOMACY 199

does not recognize dual citizenship and York) received (1/23) envelopes con- considers Hekmati Iranian.) The U.S. taining a suspicious white powder that denied Hekmati was a spy and called turned out to be "our but raised fears of his arrest and prosecution politically an anthrax attack. Israel refused to com- motivated. ment on the incidents, and no group took responsibility. Iran Suspected in Attacks on Israelis On 1/24, police in Azerbaijan ar- Abroad rested several people allegedly linked There were several attacks this quar- to an Iranian-backed Hizballah cell for ter on Israeli targets abroad that Is- plotting attacks against the Israeli am- rael and the U.S. viewed as most likely bassador to Azerbaijan and on a Jewish linked to rising tensions over the Iran school in Baku. nuclear issue. Though Israel accused On 2/14, 3 Iranians were arrested Iran and Hizballah in several of the as they "ed a mysterious explosion in cases, both denied responsibility. their Bangkok apartment. One of the On 1/13, of!cials in Thailand an- men threw grenades at a taxi that re- nounced that they had been working fused to stop for him and at approach- with Israel for weeks to track “a group ing police, seriously injuring himself. of people who appear to be from the The 2d man was arrested at Bangkok Lebanese group Hizballah” who alleg- airport attempting to leave the country. edly planned to attack tourist sites fre- The 3d made it out of Thailand but was quented by Israelis in mid-1/2012 in detained upon landing in Malaysia. Is- response to escalating U.S.-Israeli ten- rael and the U.S. suspected the bomb- sions with Iran. Thai police detained a ings were linked to the 2/13 Indian and Lebanese man in connection with the Georgian attacks and earlier incidents case who later (1/16) led police to a in Thailand (see 1/13) and Azerbaijan warehouse containing large quantities (see 1/24), but they gave no evidence of ammonia and fertilizer, commonly the men were plotting against Israeli used to make bombs. The U.S. and Is- or Jewish targets. Thai police and out- rael issued (1/13) warnings of a “real side experts doubted (but did not rule and credible” terrorist threat against out) an Israeli connection, saying the Americans and Israelis in Bangkok. Hiz- operation was very amateurish and the ballah of!cials denied (1/13) the allega- men could have been arms runners tions as an Israeli fabrication. or involved in other illegal activity in On 2/13, unidenti!ed assailants Bangkok. staged what appeared to be synchro- nized attacks against Israeli diplomatic INTERNATIONAL targets in New Delhi, India, and Tbilisi, Georgia. In New Delhi, an unidenti- UNITED STATES !ed motorist slapped a magnetic bomb on an Israeli embassy car in traf!c; the This quarter, the Obama admin. bomb detonated, wounding the wife of seemed to put Middle East diplomacy an Israeli diplomat, her driver, and 2 by- on hold to focus on the upcoming presi- standers. The same day, an unidenti!ed dential elections. Though the U.S. had assailant in Tbilisi strapped a grenade been deeply involved last quarter in to an Israeli embassy vehicle, but it was drafting the latest Quartet proposal for discovered and disarmed. The attacks resuming Israeli-Palestinian negotia- came a month after the assassination of tions, the U.S. did not seem to make Iranian nuclear scientist Ahmadi-Roshan great efforts to see the plan imple- and on the 4th anniversary of the as- mented. Only 1 U.S. diplomatic visit to sassination of Hizballah military com- the region, by Asst. Secy. of State Burns, mander Imad Mughniyah, both thought was reported (see “U.S.-Led Quartet to have been carried out by Israel’s Drive to Restart Talks” above). Further Mossad. Israel blamed Iran, which de- signaling that U.S. engagement in the nied responsibility. peace process had run its course for Israeli embassies and missions in Obama’s 1st term, Obama’s chief Mid- Europe (The Hague, Brussels, London) dle East adviser Dennis Ross stepped and the U.S. (Boston, Houston, New down as planned as of 11/30 (see QU

JPS4103_12_Quarterly Updated.indd 199 07/06/12 4:40 PM 200 JOURNAL OF PALESTINE STUDIES

in JPS 162) to return to work at the pro- for 8/27–30. The 4 Republican frontrun- Israel Washington Institute for Near East ners (and only ones left in the race by Policy. the end of the quarter) were: former Pres. Obama’s !nal State of the House speaker Newt Gingrich (GA), U.S. Union address for this term (on 1/24) Congressman Ron Paul (TX), former was devoted to domestic affairs in light governor Mitt Romney (MA), and former of the elections. He touched on the U.S. Senator Rick Santorum (PA). This is Middle East only brie"y, notably issu- the !rst presidential primary to be af- ing a pointed call on Syrian pres. Asad fected by a Supreme Court ruling that to realize “that the forces of change allowed unlimited fundraising for candi- cannot be reversed and that human dates through super PACs (political ac- dignity cannot be denied” and to urge tion committees). the international community to “iso- In the run-up to the Iowa Caucus, late” his regime. Hitting on 2 key is- the conservative Republican Jewish Co- sues in the presidential race (Iran and alition held (12/7) forum with 6 Repub- Israel), he also stressed that the U.S. lican presidential candidates. Romney would not take any options (i.e., a mili- and Gingrich both criticized Obama for tary strike) off the table in dealing with his weak and confused foreign policy Iran and emphasized “our ironclad and mistreatment of Israel. Romney commitment—and I mean ironclad—to pledged that his !rst trip as president Israel’s security.” would be to Israel. Gingrich promised This quarter, Pres. Obama ful!lled that he would move the U.S. embassy his campaign promise to bring all U.S. from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem. Both called troops home from Iraq, with the last on Obama to recall U.S. amb. to Bel- U.S. convoy pulling out on 12/18, 2 gium Howard Gutman for statements weeks ahead of Obama’s 12/31/11 tar- he made at a 11/30 conference on anti- get date. U.S. priorities in the region Semitism in Europe (see “Lobbies” be- appeared to be evolving rather than di- low). Neither Romney nor Gingrich minishing, however. The U.S. con!rmed endorsed a 2-state solution, even though (1/13) that given concerns over regional the Republican Party platform of!cially stability in light of the Arab Spring and supports this. The other 4 candidates escalating tensions with Iran, it had re- (Michele Bachmann, John Huntsman, deployed some 15,000 troops evacuated Rick Perry, and Rick Santorum) prom- from Iraq (including 2 combat brigades) ised new approaches to the Middle East to Kuwait to bolster defense of the Gulf. but did not go into detail. In addition, the Pentagon con!rmed In an interview on 12/9 with an (1/27) that it was rushing to modify American Jewish cable TV channel, the aging amphibious assault ship USS Gingrich sparked controversy by call- Ponce, previously scheduled for decom- ing Palestinians an “invented people” mission, to send to the Persian Gulf by who want to “destroy Israel.” He also summer 2012 for use as a "oating stag- described the Israeli-Palestinian con- ing base for commando teams and a "ict as a battle “between a civilian de- docking station for small high-speed mocracy that obeys the rule of law and boats and helicopters. The U.S. Cen- a group of terrorists that are !ring mis- tral Command, which oversees military siles every day.” The PLO representative operations in the Middle East, recom- to Washington, Maen Areikat, of!cially mended the move amid concerns about responded in a op-ed essay on Palestin- rising tensions with Iran, al-Qa’ida in ian identity and national history in the Yemen, and Somali pirates. Washington Post on 12/27. The New York Times ran (1/29) a The 2012 Election Campaign special front-page report on Casino Though campaigning for the 2012 magnate and staunch Israel supporter presidential race was already in full Sheldon Adelson’s huge !nancial sup- swing last quarter (see QU in JPS 162), port of Gingrich’s campaign for presi- the Republican primaries of!cially be- dent (about $17 m. overall, including gan on 1/3 with the Iowa Caucus and $10 m. to a super PAC supporting him in were set to run through 6/26/11, with the few weeks before the article), saying the Republican National Convention set Adelson “has long been enamored of

JPS4103_12_Quarterly Updated.indd 200 07/06/12 4:40 PM UPDATE ON CONFLICT AND DIPLOMACY 201

Mr. Gingrich’s full-throated defense of a nuclear weapons program. Washing- Israel.” Adelson has given hundreds of ton Post ombudsman Patrick Pexton in- millions of dollars to Jewish causes and vestigated the issue and ordered (12/11) is one of AIPAC’s biggest donor. (For an- the headline changed, agreeing that the other report on Adelson’s involvement headline contradicted the content of the in organizing congressional junkets to story and could “play into the hands of Israel, see the article by Max Blumen- those who are seeking further confron- thal, “The Bibi Connection,” in the Se- tation with Iran.” lections from the Press section in this issue.) U.S.-Israel Relations On 1/9, the day before the New The U.S. and Israel held a regu- Hampshire primaries, Republican presi- lar strategic dialogue meeting on 12/1 dential candidates Paul and Santorum focused on Iran and the impact of both stressed that the U.S. must main- sanctions. Further discussions on mil- tain close ties with Israel. Paul, who itary-to-military coordination and for- opposes all foreign aid, however, said mulating a joint strategic approach he was against continuing massive as- toward Iran were held by JSC head Gen. sistance to Israel. Santorum criticized Dempsey during his visit to Israel 1/19– Obama’s weak response to the serious 21 (see “Israel and the U.S. Send Mixed threat from Iran, whereas Paul called Signals on a Preemptive Strike” above). the danger of Iran achieving nuclear Speaking at the Brookings Institute’s weapons “way overblown.” Saban Center in Washington on 12/2, Indeed, much of the discourse in U.S. Defense Secy. Leon Panetta stated Washington and on the campaign trail that the U.S.’s “unshakable” commitment this quarter surrounded the Iran nu- to Israel, maintenance of regional stabil- clear issue, with many pro-Republican ity, and prevention of Iran from obtain- pundits criticizing Pres. Obama for not ing nuclear weapons (by military means taking quicker, harsher actions to pun- if necessary) are the “!rm principles” on ish Iran and for playing up diplomacy which U.S. Middle East policy is based. and playing down the military option. In a rare rebuke, however, he also said In response to a 12/11 Washington Post that Israel bore signi!cant blame for a op-ed accusing the Obama admin. for peace process that “has been effectively “containing” Iran instead of taking more put on hold” and must do more to re- aggressive action (including military in- vive peace talks and improve relations tervention) to halt its nuclear program, with Egypt, Jordan, and Turkey. former Obama Middle East adviser Den- Also of note: The U.S. !nalized nis Ross, who had orchestrated Obama’s (12/29) a $30 b. deal (!rst announced policy, replied (12/13) that the U.S. gov- in 2010) to sell F-16 !ghter jets to Saudi ernment’s approach was “prevention,” Arabia in effort to contain Iran, stat- not containment, arguing that there was ing the deal will not undermine Israel’s still time to pressure Iran to change its qualitative military edge. nuclear policy. Obama defended himself as well, as in the State of the Union ad- Congress dress mentioned above. With Congress on winter recess for There was also broader public con- over a month and attention largely fo- cern that in the process of skewering cused on domestic and election issues, Obama for his approach to Iran, Repub- there was little legislative action related licans and pro-Israel supporters were to the peace process or Palestinians this drumming up support for war on Iran quarter. Of note: The House Appropria- by manipulating facts and intelligence tions Subcommittee on State-Foreign data, as had occurred in the rush to war Operations, which froze the transfer of on Iraq. In 12/2011 the Washington Post $192 m. in humanitarian aid to the Pal- received some 1,500 complaints that estinians last quarter to punish Abbas the headline of an article on the paper’s for the Palestinian statehood bid at the website falsely portrayed Iran as already UN (see QU in JPS 162), agreed (12/28) having nuclear weapons and a recent to release $40 m. of economic sup- IAEA report (see QU in JPS 162) as con- port funds, which were transferred to cluding that Iran de!nitely was pursing the PA in early 2012. The U.S. Agency

JPS4103_12_Quarterly Updated.indd 201 07/06/12 4:40 PM 202 JOURNAL OF PALESTINE STUDIES

for International Development and the and called for his dismissal in their ap- White House were pressuring Congress pearances before Jewish voters. to release the rest of the money, call- Pro-Israel groups (including the ADL ing it “in the interest of the Palestinians, and American Jewish Committee [AJC]) Israel, and the United States” to ensure accused (ca. 1/19) the Center for Ameri- continued development “vital to estab- can Progress (CAP; a Washington-based lishing and strengthening the founda- think tank seen as close to the Obama tions necessary for a future Palestinian admin.) of “anti-Semitism,” citing sev- state.” The issue was not resolved by the eral Twitter posts by CAP staffers to end of the quarter. their private Twitter accounts referring to “Israel-!rsters” (i.e., Americans who Lobbies put Israel’s national interests before On 1/9, the White House announced America’s) and to AIPAC’s pushing the that Pres. Obama had tapped his director U.S. toward war with Iran. The staffers of the Of!ce of Budget and Management, quickly deleted the comments and issued Jack Lew, to replace his outgoing chief of an apology; 1 of the staffers resigned to staff William Daley. American Jewish or- take another job. The ADL and AJC al- ganizations praised the selection of Lew, leged that the private Tweets were part an Orthodox Jew deeply involved in Jew- of a “very troubling” pattern of “anti- ish affairs, stating (Jewish Telegraphic Semitism and borderline anti-Semitism” Agency 1/10) that since Dennis Ross’s de- at CAP. Former AIPAC spokesman Josh parture as Obama’s chief adviser on the Block said that the pro-Israel groups had Middle East they had worried that there gone public with their complaints only was no one “left to call in a White House after CAP of!cials ignored a compila- that has hemorrhaged top Jews over the tion of CAP staffer’s writings and public last year or so” who could directly weigh statements that were quietly presented in with the president on issues important to them in 12/2011, and which he said to Israel. amounted to “outrageous vili!cation of Responding to complaints from U.S. pro-Israel Americans.” CAP declared it- Jewish groups (including the Anti- self to be “baf"ed and appalled” by the Defamation League [ADL] and the Jew- charges. Some groups on the left of the ish Federations of North America), pro-Israel spectrum, such as J Street, said Netanyahu on 12/2 ordered Israel’s Im- the issue was overblown and suggested migration and Absorption Min. to pull that it was being brought forward now a series of ads and billboards in the “to shut down needed policy debates,” U.S. aimed at American Jews and ex- cautioning groups such as the ADL and patriate Israelis that suggest that mov- AJC to “tread lightly” with accusations of ing to America leads to assimilation anti-Semitism or “people won’t take you and erodes Jewish consciousness. The seriously.” groups had protested that the ads were arrogant and culturally insensitive. RUSSIA Various pro-Israel groups (including the ADL and AIPAC) urged the adminis- Russia did not play a major role in tration to dismiss U.S. amb. to Belgium the peace process or the Palestine is- Howard Gutman for statements he made sue this quarter, generally limiting its (11/30) at a conference on anti-Semitism involvement to the Quartet. The Arab in Europe that differentiated between League’s call (2/12) for an international the historic anti-Semitism of the Holo- conference to discuss the Palestinian is- caust and the new anti-Semitism he said sue (see “Regional Affairs” above) raised was bred in part “as a result of the con- some speculation that Russia’s long- tinuing tensions between Israel and the standing offer to host an international Palestinian territories and other Arab peace conference might be revived, but neighbors in the Middle East.” Accord- there was no follow-up. ing to the lobbies, Gutman had “blamed Of note: After a failed UNSC meet- necessary Israeli security policies for ing on 12/20 to discuss recent Israeli the hatred against the Jews.” As noted settlement authorizations and the stalled above, Republican candidates Gingrich peace process (see “United Nations” and Romney raised the Gutman case below), Russian amb. to the UN Vitaly

JPS4103_12_Quarterly Updated.indd 202 07/06/12 4:40 PM UPDATE ON CONFLICT AND DIPLOMACY 203

Churkin made an especially strong state- development, and hindering deliv- ment denouncing the U.S. (though not by ery of humanitarian aid. The report name) for blocking a UN statement call- especially urged the EU to be more ing on Israel to halt all settlement con- vocal in raising objections to “invol- struction as a step toward reviving peace untary population movements, dis- talks. He accused “one delegation” of be- placements, evictions and internal lieving that things would “miraculously” migration” forced by Israel. sort themselves out on their own, adding • An EU Heads of Mission Report on that without international pressure on East Jerusalem dated 2011, leaked Israel to halt settlement expansion, the ca. 1/17 (see Doc. A3), similarly Palestinians would never get a fair deal criticized escalating settlement in negotiations. activity in the city for undermining the 2-state solution. It also urged the EU to consider legislation “to EUROPEAN UNION prevent/discourage !nancial trans- The EU largely restricted its participa- actions in support of settlement tion in the peace process this quarter to activity.” the Quartet, with EU foreign policy dir. • An EU working paper reportedly Ashton making a strong effort to urge urged Brussels to “consider Israel’s Abbas and Netanyahu to pursue the ex- treatment of its Arab population a ploratory talks held throughout 1/2012 ‘core issue, not second tier to the in Jordan (see “Jordan Hosts Israeli-Pal- Israeli-Palestinian con"ict,’” and to estinian ‘Exploratory Talks’” above). In take a stronger stand against mis- the only other direct intervention, EU treatment of Israeli Palestinians. member states surprised and angered The 27-page document, sent to Israel at the UNSC by issuing (12/20) a Brussels in 11/2011, was not leaked rare joint statement strongly criticizing in full, but excerpts were published the U.S. for blocking a statement con- in the press in 12/2011 (see the demning Israeli settlement expansion article by Barak Ravid titled “Secret and increasing settlement violence (see EU Paper Aims to Tackle Israel’s “United Nations” below). Treatment of Arab Minority” in the Though the EU kept a generally low Selections from the Press section in pro!le, EU envoys in the region were this issue). clearly active in monitoring conditions on the ground and advocating a stron- UNITED NATIONS ger European stand against Israeli mis- treatment of Palestinians, to the extent As noted above (see “Jordan Hosts of urging a greater and stronger Euro- Israeli-Palestinian ‘Exploratory Talks’”), pean role in the peace process. Though after Israeli-Palestinian exploratory talks no of!cial EU decisions were taken collapsed, UN Secy.-Gen. Ban made in this regard, the picture emerged (1/31–2/2) a special trip to the region to through 3 internal EU documents meet with Jordan’s King Abdallah and leaked to the press this quarter that fur- FM Judeh, PA pres. Abbas, and Israeli ther angered Israel: PM Netanyahu to encourage the parties to continue the dialogue. He urged Is- • In a 16-page report dated 7/2011 rael to draft a package of goodwill ges- and leaked ca. 1/12 (see Doc. A2), tures, including a settlement freeze, to EU envoys said that Israeli actions offer in exchange for the Palestinians in Area C, the 62% of the West agreeing to resume direct talks. Ban also Bank under full Israeli security and made (2/2) a brief visit to Gaza to in- civilian control, were “closing the augurate a UN-funded housing project. window” on the 2-state solution Relatives of Palestinians jailed in Israel and undermining the peace process tried to block his entry to the Erez cross- by allowing extensive settlement ing to protest his refusal to meet with expansion, obstructing Palestinian them. During the visit, Ban called on Is- movement and access, destroy- rael to maintain the cease-!re with Gaza ing Palestinian civilian property, and allow Gaza’s borders to open for undermining Palestinian economic trade. Later, he addressed the Herzliya

JPS4103_12_Quarterly Updated.indd 203 07/06/12 4:40 PM 204 JOURNAL OF PALESTINE STUDIES

conference, telling Israeli of!cials and Palmor added: “We felt that the Euro- analysts to “think carefully about how pean statement broke all the diplomatic to empower those on the other side who rules. You aren’t meant to issue such wish for peace.” a harsh statement by surprise, without With Palestine having achieved full prior consultation.” membership in UNESCO last quarter (see QU in JPS 162), PA Tourism and Antiqui- OTHER ties M Hamdan Taha stated (11/21) that the government’s next priority would be The Inter-Parliamentary Union to seek world heritage status for the old (IPU), an NGO with permanent ob- cities of Hebron and Jericho. An appli- server status at the UN, formally apol- cation for Bethlehem was already in the ogized (1/17) to Israel for allowing a works and was expected to have a bet- Hamas member (part of a Palestinian ter chance of approval now that Palestine delegation) to take part in a dialogue has membership. The PA also planned to in Geneva (ca. 1/14) on Israel’s treat- seek recovery of artifacts looted by Is- ment of Palestinian prisoners. Israel had rael, increase funds for preservation and threatened (1/16) to withdraw from the excavations, and use its status to force IPU in protest, but the NGO vowed that Israel to stop calling West Bank sites “Is- Hamas would be barred from future raeli antiquities.” On 12/13, PA Pres. Ab- events. The IPU was formed in 1889 to bas and UNESCO Dir. Gen. Irina Bokova arbitrate con"icts, but has evolved into attended a formal ceremony to raise the an organization that promotes democ- Palestinian "ag outside the UNESCO racy and interparliamentary dialogue. headquarters in Paris. The Palestinians Any sovereign state may participate; 157 made no further efforts to gain member- countries are currently members. ship in UN bodies this quarter. The Vatican announced (2/7) that On 12/20, after a UNSC brie!ng on Pope Benedict XVI would visit Lebanon the Middle East, 14 UNSC members in 9/2012 to issue a statement on the fu- came out in strong, united denunciation ture of the Catholic church in the Mid- of the U.S. (without naming it directly) dle East and “the plight of Christians in for blocking all criticism either of Isra- the Muslim-dominated Middle East.” el’s new settlement construction in East Jerusalem and the West Bank or of es- calating settler violence, as well as for DONORS threatening to veto any UNSC res. sup- porting Palestinian statehood. Immedi- Only routine donor meetings were ately after, British UN Ambassador Mark held this quarter. The Development Fo- Lyall Grant read a statement prepared rum (the main donor body dealing with jointly by the UNSC’s EU members (Brit- day-to-day affairs in the territories) held ain, France, Germany, and Portugal) a quarterly meeting on 12/13 to discuss calling recent Israeli settlement and set- the PA’s reform and development priori- tler actions “devastating” to the 2-state ties, budget issues, and plans for Pal- solution. Emphasizing that “the viabil- estinian elections. While none of the 4 ity of the Palestinian state that we want main donor “strategy groups” (SGs) met to see and the two-state solution that is this quarter, various SG subcommittees essential for Israel’s long-term security held routine meetings. These included: are threatened by the systematic and the economic SG’s agriculture sector deliberate expansion of settlements,” working group (SWG; 2/19), !scal SWG which it called “illegal under interna- (12/14) and micro and small !nance tional law,” the statement declared that task force (11/17); the governance SG’s the “mutually reinforcing objectives” of elections working group (11/22, 2/2), Palestinian statehood and Israeli secu- judicial reform SWG (1/19), municipal rity could not be achieved as long as development and local government SWG settlement activity continues (see Doc. (12/7), and security SWG (12/14); the A1). Shocked by the tone of the state- infrastructure SG’s solid waste thematic ment, Israel denounced (12/21) the EU group (12/6); and the social and human- states for interfering in Israel’s inter- itarian assistance SG’s education SWG nal affairs. Israeli FM spokesman Yigal (2/2) and social protection SWG (2/9).

JPS4103_12_Quarterly Updated.indd 204 07/06/12 4:40 PM