UPDATE ON CONFLICT AND DIPLOMACY 16 NOVEMBER 2011–15 FEBRUARY 2012 COMPILED BY MICHELE K. ESPOSITO The Quarterly Update is a summary of bilateral, multilateral, regional, and international events affecting the Palestinians and the future of the peace process. More than 100 print, wire, television, and online sources providing U.S., Israeli, Arab, and international independent and government coverage of unfolding events are surveyed to compile the Quarterly Update. The most relevant sources are cited in JPS’s Chronology section, which tracks events day by day. Highlights of the Quarter: Jordan hosts Israeli-Palestinian “exploratory talks,” Abbas tem- porarily suspends the Palestinian statehood bid at the UN, Hamas and Fatah take limited steps to implement the May 2011 national reconciliation agreement, the 2d half of the Shalit prisoner release takes place, U.S. presidential candidates urge support for Israel while the Obama administration puts its diplomatic efforts on hold for elections, Israel considers early elections in fall 2012, international sanctions and support for a preemptive strike on Iran escalate, Hamas leaves Damascus as Syria descends into civil war, Egypt holds its 1st elections since the Arab Spring, Saleh leaves Yemen. THE PALESTINIAN-ISRAELI Hamas, Islamic Jihad, and the Popu- CONFLICT lar Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP). As of 11/15, at least 7,886 Pales- This quarter, the Palestinians agreed tinians (including 51 Israeli Arabs and to suspend their drive for UN recogni- 19 unidenti!ed Arab cross-border in!l- tion of statehood for a brief period to trators), 1,113 Israelis (including 354 IDF give the Quartet another chance to bro- soldiers and security personnel, 226 set- ker mutual understandings on the base- tlers, and 533 civilians), and 66 foreign lines for !nal status talks necessary for nationals (including 2 British suicide reviving serious negotiations. Though bombers) had been killed since the start Jordan made the signi!cant gesture of of the al-Aqsa intifada on 9/28/2000. hosting the Israeli-Palestinian “explor- atory talks,” in the absence of bridging The U.S.-Led Quartet Drive to proposals or guarantees by the inter- Restart Talks national community, no progress was Last quarter, Palestine submitted its made toward closing the gaps between much anticipated application for full UN the sides. The failure left Palestinian member-state status at the UN General pres. Mahmud Abbas at quarter’s close Assembly (UNGA) session on 9/23/11. poised to revive both the statehood ef- Hours later, in a last-ditch U.S.-led effort fort and reconciliation efforts with to preempt the application’s consider- Hamas. ation, the Quartet proposed a timetable Meanwhile, conditions on the ground for Israel and the Palestinians to re- remained unchanged. Israel maintained turn to negotiations. The idea was that its tight siege on the Hamas-controlled if the sides were discussing even ba- Gaza Strip, severely restricting its econ- sic procedural elements, the UN could omy and undermining quality of life. In be persuaded to delay consideration of the Fatah-controlled West Bank, Israeli the application to give the sides time to restrictions and Israel Defense Forces reach a settlement themselves, without (IDF) military operations remained rela- international interference (see Quarterly tively low, with the focus on containing Update [QU] in JPS 162 for background). Journal of Palestine Studies Vol. XLI, No. 3 (Spring 2012), pp. 169–204, ISSN: 0377-919X; electronic ISSN: 1533-8614. © 2012 by the Institute for Palestine Studies. All rights reserved. Please direct all requests for permission to photocopy or reproduce article content through the University of California Press’s Rights and Permissions website, at http://www.ucpressjournals.com/reprintInfo.asp. DOI: jps.2012.XLI.3.169. JPS4103_12_Quarterly Updated.indd 169 07/06/12 4:40 PM 170 JOURNAL OF PALESTINE STUDIES The vague Quartet timetable called on 1 precondition with another, and (2) Ab- the sides to: (1) begin preliminary dis- bas was unclear about whether the deal cussions within 1 month on resuming would result in preparatory talks only formal talks; (2) produce “comprehen- or direct negotiations between Abbas sive proposals” on borders and security and Netanyahu. Palestinian and U.S. of- (i.e., restart substantive negotiations) !cials declined to con!rm or comment. within 3 months thereafter; and (3) Of note: On 11/21, Burns was in Is- reach a !nal status agreement within 1 rael, King Abdallah of Jordan made a year. When the sides made no move to sudden, unannounced visit to Ramallah start preliminary talks by 10/23/11, the (his 1st in 10 years) with the stated pur- 1-month deadline, Quartet reps. traveled pose of brie!ng Abbas on Jordan’s inde- to the region to meet (10/26) with the pendent efforts to reconcile with Hamas negotiating teams separately and called and informing him personally that Jor- on them to submit their borders and dan had invited Mishal (barred from security proposals by 1/26/12. The Pal- Jordan since 1999) for an of!cial visit to estinians held fast to their longstanding Amman (see “Jordan” below). A week demand that Israel cease all settlement later, on 11/28, King Abdallah hosted expansion in the West Bank and East Je- Israeli pres. Shimon Peres in Amman rusalem before and during negotiations, to discuss reviving Israeli-Palestinian arguing that Israel’s ongoing settlement talks. No details of either meeting were construction predetermined !nal bor- released and no breakthroughs were ders. Israel rejected the Palestinian de- reported. mand as an unacceptable “precondition” With the stalemate continuing, Quar- to resuming talks. tet reps. returned (12/13–14) to the re- As of the opening of the quarter in gion to press the Israeli and Palestinian mid-11/2011, the sides had yet to make negotiating teams in Jerusalem and Ra- any move to meet. Instead, in absence mallah once again. No success was re- of serious peace diplomacy, Palestinian ported, and Palestinian sources noted Authority (PA) pres. Abbas and Hamas (New York Times [NYT] 12/14) “a grow- leader Khalid Mishal agreed to meet in ing disconnect between the Quartet Cairo on 11/24 to discuss implement- talks and the situation on the ground,” ing their suspended 5/2011 national but did not elaborate. reconciliation agreement as an alterna- tive way forward (see “National Recon- Subtle Changes Alter the Prospects ciliation” below). Before the meeting for Talks could take place, the U.S. dispatched Though Quartet diplomacy went no- Dep. Secy. of State William Burns to where, by mid-12/2011 several devel- the region to press Abbas (11/20) and opments had unfolded that were seen Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu (11/21) (particularly by the U.S.) as improving to return to the table and to warn Ab- conditions for resuming peace talks. bas against forming a unity government Most notably, ever since winning full with Hamas. Anonymous U.S. of!cials membership in UNESCO on 11/1/11 said that Burns sought to eliminate Pal- (see QU in JPS 162), Abbas made no ef- estinian demands for a settlement freeze fort to press the statehood issue at the as an obstacle to reviving talks, but UN, either by urging quick consider- gave no details. Anonymous Israeli of!- ation of Palestine’s application or by cials later claimed (Ha’Aretz 12/28) that seeking membership in other UN bodies Burns placed heavy pressure on Ab- or international organizations. Second, bas to scale back his settlement freeze Abbas’s 11/24 meeting with Mishal in demand and that Abbas had offered to Cairo, while deemed positive and pro- drop it altogether if Israel would release ductive by the leaders, resulted in little 100 Palestinian prisoners jailed since substantive movement toward imple- before the Oslo process began in addi- menting the 5/2011 national unity deal tion to the 550 yet to be released under (see “National Reconciliation” below). In the Shalit prisoner exchange (see “Stage light of these 2 points, Israel gave in to 2 of the Shalit Prisoner Swap Is Imple- heavy U.S. and international pressure to mented” below). They said Israel had re- restore (11/30) the transfer of VAT taxes jected the offer because: (1) it replaced collected on the PA’s behalf, which it JPS4103_12_Quarterly Updated.indd 170 07/06/12 4:40 PM UPDATE ON CONFLICT AND DIPLOMACY 171 had suspended on 11/1 to punish the attend out of respect for Jordan. Observ- Palestinians for winning UNESCO mem- ers noted (NYT 1/4) that the planned bership. Lastly, Israel completed the 2d meeting was highly unpopular with stage of the Shalit prisoner release, free- Palestinians in the territories, who saw ing mostly West Bank Fatah cadres as it as caving in to Israeli and U.S. pres- a gesture to Abbas (see “Stage 2 of the sure. Acknowledging the criticism, Ab- Shalit Prisoner Swap Is Implemented” bas vowed (1/3, reiterated 1/19) that in below). the absence of serious progress by 1/26, At base, however, neither side he would take “harsh measures against seemed to have changed its funda- Israel,” including reviving the Palestin- mental positions: Abbas stressed (ca. ians’ UN statehood bid. 11/28) that he remained committed to On 1/3, Israeli and Palestinian ne- the statehood initiative. Israel warned gotiators met with Quartet reps. (in- (11/30) that VAT transfers could be sus- cluding special envoy Tony Blair) and pended again if Abbas moved toward then with Jordanian FM Nasser Judeh. reconciliation with Hamas or revived Afterward, Judeh stated that the Pal- statehood efforts. A Netanyahu aide estinian team had turned over its po- acknowledged (11/23) that threatening sition papers on security and borders to bankrupt the Palestinian Authority as requested, and that the Israeli team (PA), thus jeopardizing the salaries of a had formally received them.