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Chapter 3: Hazards, Risks, Failures

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Chapter 3: Hazards, Risks, Failures 3 Chapter 3: CHAPTER Hazards, Risks, Failures 3.0 General Natural hazards such as floods, some idea of the major flood prone areas. earthquakes, and landslides are also Flash floods can happen anywhere--even Dam failures are severe threats to life important contributors to risk. These and property and are now being recorded on small drainage areas but especially in natural phenomena existed long before and documented much more thoroughly the west. Floods are the most frequent and humanity established patterns of settle- than in the past. Recorded losses have been costly natural events that lead to disaster in ment and are considered hazards because high. Statistics on losses of life and the U.S. Therefore, flood potentials must development has placed people and property fully justify the need for dam be included in risk analyses for dam owners to better understand the risks to property in their way. Failure to adjust to failure. Hurricanes and tropical storms can the public posed by dams, the kinds of these events has been costly both to dam stall over an area, creating a significant hazards that promote those risks and owners and to the public in general. precipitation event that can result in owner liabilities associated with them, and, Human behavior is another element flooding. See Table 3.1 for extreme generally, the reasons that dams fail. of dam failure risk; simple mistakes, precipitation events in Texas. operational mismanagement, negligence, Improving a dam owner’s understanding Texas has design flood criteria derived unnecessary oversights, or destructive of realistic risks and possible reasons for from a percentage of the probable intent can interact with other hazards to failure is an essential first step in any maximum flood (PMF) based on the dam’s compound the possibility of failure. Thus, overall effort to improve dam safety and hazard potential and size classification. A a broad range of natural and human preserve the benefits of dam ownership. PMF is the flood that may be expected hazards, taken separately or in combina- from the most severe combination of tion, increase the probability of dam 3.1 Hazards as critical meteorologic and hydrologic failure and injury to people and property. conditions that are reasonably possible in Sources of Risk The following discussion of some of the region. This assumed event becomes The dam structure itself can be a the most significant hazards that lead to the basis for the design of structural and source of risk due to possible construction public risk illustrates the interrelationships hydraulic elements of the dam. flaws and weaknesses that develop because among events that can lead to dam failure. Flooding from dam failure. When a of aging. The site immediately surrounding dam fails as a result of a flood, more the structure may also increase the struc- 3.1.1 Natural Hazards people and property are generally placed in tural risk if the dam is not positioned or That Threaten Dams jeopardy than during natural floods. The anchored properly or if excessive reservoir The most important natural hazards Rapid City, South Dakota, flood of 1970, seepage erodes the foundation or abutments. threatening dams include: The physical hazards that can cause which killed 242 people, caused a dam ■ flooding from high precipitation dam failure are translated into high risks failure which added significantly to the ■ flooding from dam failure when people or property are threatened, loss of life. When a natural flood occurs ■ and where the high risks to which earthquakes near a dam, the probability of failure and Americans are exposed are exacerbated by ■ landslides loss of life almost always increases. a number of important factors. For Flooding from high precipitation. Of The sudden surge of water generated instance, in most states, people are allowed the natural events that can impact dams, by a dam failure usually exceeds the to settle below dams in potential inunda- floods are the most significant. A flood- maximum flood expected naturally; dam- tion zones, thereby compounding risk. plain map of the U.S. (Figure 3.1) gives failure inundation zones and 100-year 13 Guidelines for Operation and Maintenance of Dams in Texas Table 3.1 floodplains are seldom congruent. The Extreme Precipitation in Texas upper portion of an inundation zone almost always exceeds the 100-year floodplain Location Dates Inches Duration (hr) Comments considerably; therefore, residences and Thrall Sept. 9–10, 1921 38.2 24 36.4" in 18 hr businesses that would escape natural D’Hannis May 31, 1935 22 3 flooding can be at extreme risk from dam New Braunfels May 11, 1972 16 4 failure flooding. Hence, it is important to Taylor Ranch July 3, 1976 17.83 24 inform residents and business personnel of (San Saba Co.) the full risk to which they are exposed so Albany August 4, 1978 29.05 24 23" in 8 hr that they can respond accordingly. Medina August 4, 1978 48 52 When one dam fails, the sudden surge Alvin July 26, 1979 25.75 24 NWS reported of water may well be powerful enough to 42" in 19 hr destroy another dam downstream, Odem Oct. 19, 1984 26 4 compounding the disaster. The potential Comanche May 31, 1988 18 5 for such a snowball effect is great, but the Pearland Oct. 17, 1994 28.2 48 problem may seem remote to a dam owner Lake Conroe Oct. 16–19, 1994 27.76 96 who has not studied the potential impacts of upstream dams on his or her own Sources: Bomar (1983); National Weather Service, San Antonio; NWS, Houston-Galveston; U.S. Geological Survey (2003). structure. Upstream dams may seem too Figure 3.1 Estimated Proportion of Land in Floodplain Source: Thompson and White (1985: 417). 14 TEXAS COMMISSION ON ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY Guidelines for Operation and Maintenance of Dams in Texas far away to be a real threat, but inundation history of seismic activity in their locality 3.1.2 Hazards From zones and surge crests can extend many and should develop their emergency Human Activity miles downstream, especially if the procedures accordingly. Human activity must also be consid- reservoir behind the collapsed dam held a Landslides. Rock slides and landslides ered when analyzing the risks posed by large quantity of water. may affect dams directly by blocking a dams. In Texas, the hazard classification of Earthquakes. Earthquakes are also spillway or by eroding and weakening dams is based on the potential for loss of significant threats to dam safety. Both abutments. Indirectly, a large landslide life and economic loss in the area down- earthen and concrete dams can be into a reservoir behind a dam can cause an stream of the dam, not on its structural damaged by ground motions caused by overflow wave that will exceed the capacity safety. Thus, dams that may be of very seismic activity. Cracks or seepage can of the spillway and lead to failure. A sound construction are labeled “high develop, leading to immediate or delayed landslide (or mudslide) can form a natural hazard” if failure could result in cata- failure. Dams such as those in Califor- dam across a stream which can then be strophic loss of life—in other words, if nia—located near relatively young, active overtopped and fail. In turn, failure of people have settled in the potential faults—are of particular concern, but dams such a natural dam could then cause the inundation zone. The “high hazard” (especially older concrete and earthen overtopping of a downstream dam or by structures) located where relatively low- designation does not imply structural itself cause damage equivalent to the scale seismic events may occur are also at weakness or an unsafe dam. See 30 Texas failure of a human-built dam. In addition, risk. Areas of the U.S. where significant Administrative Code Chapter 299 for the large increases in sediment caused by such seismic risks exist are indicated in Figure Texas criteria for classifying dams in the 3.2. However, recent detailed seismic events can materially reduce storage three hazard potential categories. analyses have indicated a much broader capacity in reservoirs and thus increase a Risk may well increase through time area of seismic activity sufficient to downstream dam’s vulnerability to because few governmental entities have damage dams than previously considered; flooding. Sedimentation can also damage found the means to limit settlement below the seismic risk is essentially nationwide. low-level gates and water outlets; damage dams. The hazard level of more dams is Dam owners should be aware of the to gates and outlets can lead to failure. rising to “high” or “significant” as develop- Figure 3.2 Seismic Map of the United States ZONE 0 No damage. ZONE 1 Minor damage, distant earthquakes may cause damage to structures with fundamental periods greater than 10 seconds, corresponds to intensities V and VI of the M.M.* Scale. ZONE 2 Moderate damage, corresponds to intensity VII of the M.M.* Scale. ZONE 3 Major damage, corre- sponds to intensity VIII and higher of the MM* Scale. ZONE 4 Those areas within Zone 3 determined by the proximity to certain fault systems *Modified Mercatal Intensity Scale of 1931 Source: U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (1985). TEXAS COMMISSION ON ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY 15 Guidelines for Operation and Maintenance of Dams in Texas ment occurs in potential inundation zones Mechanical equipment and associated also be important and useful. Still, exact below dams previously rated “low hazard.” control mechanisms should be protected quantitative and probabilistic tools are not Many other complex aspects of from tampering, whether purposeful or yet applicable in many situations and do settlement and development must be inadvertent.
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