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The Daily Brief The Daily Brief Market Update Friday, 22 January 2021 SARB on Hold South Africa's central bank kept its main lending rate at 3.5% on Thursday, saying overall risks to the inflation outlook appeared to be balanced in the near and medium term. Three members of the monetary policy committee wanted to hold the repo rate and two preferred a 25 basis point cut, Governor Lesetja Kganyago said. The decision was in line with a Reuters poll published last week. "The committee notes that the slow economic recovery will help keep inflation below the midpoint of the target range for this year and next," Kganyago added, referring to the bank's 3% to 6% target range. The South African Reserve Bank cut interest rates by a cumulative 300 basis points last year to cushion the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Inflation in Africa's most industrialised economy has been benign, giving the bank space to be accommodative. "Monetary policy has eased financial conditions and improved the resilience of households and firms to the economic implications of COVID-19," Kganyago said. "Economic and financial conditions are expected to remain volatile for the foreseeable future. In this highly uncertain environment, policy decisions will continue to be data dependent and sensitive to the balance of risks to the outlook." Global Markets Asian shares eased from record highs on Friday as investors took some money off the table after a recent rally that was driven by hopes a massive U.S. economic stimulus plan by incoming President Joe Biden will help temper the COVID-19 impact. "The markets had such a strong run yesterday after the presidential inauguration in the U.S. and the run-up to that, that the lead coming in from the U.S. is a bit messy," said Shane Oliver, chief economist at investment manager AMP Capital in Sydney. "A lot of the good news is out there. I suspect a fairly flat day." MSCI's broadest gauge of Asia Pacific stocks outside of Japan was off 0.2% at 722.49 points, a whisker away from its all-time high of 727.31 touched on Thursday. The index has jumped 3.7% so far this week, reflecting relief over an orderly transition of power in the United States and strong expectations that U.S. stimulus will provide continued support for global assets. Republicans in the U.S. Congress have indicated they are willing to work with President Joe Biden on his administration's top priority, a $1.9 trillion U.S. fiscal stimulus plan, though some are opposed to the price tag. Democrats took control of the U.S. Senate on Wednesday, though they will still need Republican support to pass the program. Australia's benchmark index was down 0.2% while Japan's Nikkei eased 0.4%. Chinese shares started on the backfoot with the blue-chip CSI300 index down 0.1% and Hong Kong's Hang Seng was off 0.1%. Overnight on Wall Street, both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite closed at record highs. The Dow Jones Industrial Average eased a touch, falling into negative territory in the final minutes of trading. In currency markets, the U.S. dollar picked up against a basket of currencies after three straight days of losses. It is down 0.7% so far this week. Against the Japanese yen, the dollar has slipped 0.25% so far this week. The commodity-sensitive Australian dollar is up 0.6% this week while the euro has climbed 0.7% in the period. The single currency was flat even as European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde warned about a renewed surge in COVID-19 infections and the prospect of prolonged restrictions that could challenge the region's economic outlook. The ECB, which kept interest rates steady on Thursday, also pledged to provide more support for the economy if needed. The greenback's recent slide has been led by investors ploughing money into higher-yielding currencies on optimism about a rapid economic recovery led by massive U.S. stimulus. Popular cryptocurrency bitcoin fell to an almost three-week low on Friday on profit-taking and worries about extra regulations. In commodities, oil prices slipped after an unexpected build-up in U.S. crude stockpiles. Brent was off 23 cents at $55.86 a barrel while U.S. crude inched 26 cents lower to $52.86. Spot gold was down 0.2% at 1,865.5 an ounce. Domestic Markets South Africa's rand firmed on Thursday, supported by the central bank's decision to leave interest rates unchanged and expectations that the new U.S. administration will unveil a massive stimulus package. At 1600 GMT, the rand traded at 14.8250 versus the dollar, 0.5% stronger on the day. The South African Reserve Bank kept the repo rate at 3.5% in a close decision. Three out of five members of the monetary policy committee wanted to hold the rate while two preferred a rate cut that could have dented the appeal of investing in rand assets. Republicans in the U.S. Congress have indicated they are willing to work with President Joe Biden on one of his administration's priorities, a $1.9 trillion stimulus plan, boosting the market mood globally. The Johannesburg Stock Exchange recorded small gains, with concerns over the country's coronavirus vaccine rollout plans counteracting buoyant offshore sentiment. The All-share index gained 0.1% to end the day at 64,175 points, while the Top-40 index closed up 0.19% at 58,969 points. The gold mining index was up 1.92% and the platinum index up 2.75% at market close. In fixed income, the yield on the 2030 government bond was up 0.5 basis points at 8.725%. Corona Tracker The number of new cases is distorted by cut-off times. Source: Thomson Reuters Market Overview Notes to the table: The money market rates are TB rates “BMK” = Benchmark “NCPI” = Namibian inflation rate “Difference” = change in basis points Current spot = value at the time of writing NSX is a Bloomberg calculated Index Important Note: This is not a solicitation to trade and CAM will not necessarily trade at the yields and/or prices quoted above. The information is sourced from the data vendor as indicated. The levels of and changes in the yields need to be interpreted with caution due to the illiquid nature of the domestic bond market. Source: Bloomberg For enquiries concerning the Daily Brief please contact us at [email protected] Disclaimer The information contained in this note is the property of Capricorn Asset Management (CAM). The information contained herein has been obtained from sources which and persons whom the writer believe to be reliable but is not guaranteed for accuracy, completeness or otherwise. Opinions and estimates constitute the writer’s judgement as of the date of this material and are subject to change without notice. This note is provided for informational purposes only and may not be reproduced in any way without the explicit permission of CAM. .
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