Consumption in the Circular Economy: Learning from Our Mistakes
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Journal of Econometrics Consumption and Labor Supply
Journal of Econometrics 147 (2008) 326–335 Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Journal of Econometrics journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/jeconom Consumption and labor supply Dale W. Jorgenson a,∗, Daniel T. Slesnick b a Department of Economics, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138, United States b Department of Economics, University of Texas, Austin, TX 78712, United States article info a b s t r a c t Article history: We present a new econometric model of aggregate demand and labor supply for the United States. Available online 16 September 2008 We also analyze the allocation full wealth among time periods for households distinguished by a variety of demographic characteristics. The model is estimated using micro-level data from the Consumer JEL classification: Expenditure Surveys supplemented with price information obtained from the Consumer Price Index. An C81 important feature of our approach is that aggregate demands and labor supply can be represented in D12 D91 closed form while accounting for the substantial heterogeneity in behavior that is found in household- level data. As a result, we are able to explain the patterns of aggregate demand and labor supply in the Keywords: data despite using a parametrically parsimonious specification. Consumption ' 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. Leisure Labor Demand Supply Wages 1. Introduction employed, we impute the opportunity wages they face using the wages earned by employees. The objective of this paper is to present a new econometric Cross-sectional variation of prices and wages is considerable model of aggregate consumer behavior for the United States. The and provides an important source of information about patterns model allocates full wealth among time periods for households of consumption and labor supply. -
What Role Does Consumer Sentiment Play in the U.S. Economy?
The economy is mired in recession. Consumer spending is weak, investment in plant and equipment is lethargic, and firms are hesitant to hire unemployed workers, given bleak forecasts of demand for final products. Monetary policy has lowered short-term interest rates and long rates have followed suit, but consumers and businesses resist borrowing. The condi- tions seem ripe for a recovery, but still the economy has not taken off as expected. What is the missing ingredient? Consumer confidence. Once the mood of consumers shifts toward the optimistic, shoppers will buy, firms will hire, and the engine of growth will rev up again. All eyes are on the widely publicized measures of consumer confidence (or consumer sentiment), waiting for the telltale uptick that will propel us into the longed-for expansion. Just as we appear to be headed for a "double-dipper," the mood swing occurs: the indexes of consumer confi- dence register 20-point increases, and the nation surges into a prolonged period of healthy growth. oes the U.S. economy really behave as this fictional account describes? Can a shift in sentiment drive the economy out of D recession and back into good health? Does a lack of consumer confidence drag the economy into recession? What causes large swings in consumer confidence? This article will try to answer these questions and to determine consumer confidence’s role in the workings of the U.S. economy. ]effre9 C. Fuhrer I. What Is Consumer Sentitnent? Senior Econotnist, Federal Reserve Consumer sentiment, or consumer confidence, is both an economic Bank of Boston. -
Demand Composition and the Strength of Recoveries†
Demand Composition and the Strength of Recoveriesy Martin Beraja Christian K. Wolf MIT & NBER MIT & NBER September 17, 2021 Abstract: We argue that recoveries from demand-driven recessions with ex- penditure cuts concentrated in services or non-durables will tend to be weaker than recoveries from recessions more biased towards durables. Intuitively, the smaller the bias towards more durable goods, the less the recovery is buffeted by pent-up demand. We show that, in a standard multi-sector business-cycle model, this prediction holds if and only if, following an aggregate demand shock to all categories of spending (e.g., a monetary shock), expenditure on more durable goods reverts back faster. This testable condition receives ample support in U.S. data. We then use (i) a semi-structural shift-share and (ii) a structural model to quantify this effect of varying demand composition on recovery dynamics, and find it to be large. We also discuss implications for optimal stabilization policy. Keywords: durables, services, demand recessions, pent-up demand, shift-share design, recov- ery dynamics, COVID-19. JEL codes: E32, E52 yEmail: [email protected] and [email protected]. We received helpful comments from George-Marios Angeletos, Gadi Barlevy, Florin Bilbiie, Ricardo Caballero, Lawrence Christiano, Martin Eichenbaum, Fran¸coisGourio, Basile Grassi, Erik Hurst, Greg Kaplan, Andrea Lanteri, Jennifer La'O, Alisdair McKay, Simon Mongey, Ernesto Pasten, Matt Rognlie, Alp Simsek, Ludwig Straub, Silvana Tenreyro, Nicholas Tra- chter, Gianluca Violante, Iv´anWerning, Johannes Wieland (our discussant), Tom Winberry, Nathan Zorzi and seminar participants at various venues, and we thank Isabel Di Tella for outstanding research assistance. -
AP Macroeconomics: Vocabulary 1. Aggregate Spending (GDP)
AP Macroeconomics: Vocabulary 1. Aggregate Spending (GDP): The sum of all spending from four sectors of the economy. GDP = C+I+G+Xn 2. Aggregate Income (AI) :The sum of all income earned by suppliers of resources in the economy. AI=GDP 3. Nominal GDP: the value of current production at the current prices 4. Real GDP: the value of current production, but using prices from a fixed point in time 5. Base year: the year that serves as a reference point for constructing a price index and comparing real values over time. 6. Price index: a measure of the average level of prices in a market basket for a given year, when compared to the prices in a reference (or base) year. 7. Market Basket: a collection of goods and services used to represent what is consumed in the economy 8. GDP price deflator: the price index that measures the average price level of the goods and services that make up GDP. 9. Real rate of interest: the percentage increase in purchasing power that a borrower pays a lender. 10. Expected (anticipated) inflation: the inflation expected in a future time period. This expected inflation is added to the real interest rate to compensate for lost purchasing power. 11. Nominal rate of interest: the percentage increase in money that the borrower pays the lender and is equal to the real rate plus the expected inflation. 12. Business cycle: the periodic rise and fall (in four phases) of economic activity 13. Expansion: a period where real GDP is growing. 14. Peak: the top of a business cycle where an expansion has ended. -
Pergamon J\)Ll-:' 1:1-..C\JL'r Science Ltj
View metadata, citation and similar papers at core.ac.uk brought to you by CORE provided by Research Papers in Economics .lounw/ of lntcnwtiww/ Moucr and Finam 1'. Vol. 10. Nll. -L pp. 617 h5 1. Jlll>7 �Pergamon j\)ll-:' 1:1-..c\JL'r Science LtJ. All rt�hb ll''-L'I\l'J PII: PrintcU in Great H1 ita in S0261-5606(97)00007-7 02bl<;;6()6/ll7 S17 I)() 11.1)1) Dynamic analysis in the Viner model of mercantilism HENG-FU ZOU* Institute of Advanced Studies, Wuhan University, China and The World Bank, Washington, DC, USA This paper models the central theme of mercantilism in Jacob Viner's interpretation-power vs plenty-in a framework of modern theory of international finance. It is shown that, in the Viner model of mercantil ism, a nation with strong mercantilist sentiment ends up with large foreign asset accumulation and high consumption in the long run; an import tariff leads to more foreign asset holding and more total consump tion; furthermore, in the Viner model, the Harberger- Laursen-Metzler effect exists unambiguously: a permanent terms-of-trade deterioration causes a current account deficit in the short run. (JEL F1, F3, BO). © 1997 Elsevier Science Ltd. This paper offers a mathematical model of mercantilism according to the interpretation by Jacob Viner (1937, 1948, 1968, 1991) while including the interpretations of mercantilism by Schmoller (1897), Cunningham (1907, 1968), and Heckscher (1935, 1955) as special cases of the Viner model. Even though mercantilism has been examined, criticized, or even ridiculed since Adam Smith, only recently has a formal model of mercantilism been presented by Irwin (1991) in a framework of the strategic trade theory. -
Introduction to Macroeconomics TOPIC 2: the Goods Market
Introduction to Macroeconomics TOPIC 2: The Goods Market Anna¨ıgMorin CBS - Department of Economics August 2013 Introduction to Macroeconomics TOPIC 2: Goods market, IS curve Goods market Road map: 1. Demand for goods 1.1. Components 1.1.1. Consumption 1.1.2. Investment 1.1.3. Government spending 2. Equilibrium in the goods market 3. Changes of the equilibrium Introduction to Macroeconomics TOPIC 2: Goods market, IS curve 1.1. Demand for goods - Components What are the main component of the demand for domestically produced goods? Consumption C: all goods and services purchased by consumers Investment I: purchase of new capital goods by firms or households (machines, buildings, houses..) (6= financial investment) Government spending G: all goods and services purchased by federal, state and local governments Exports X: all goods and services purchased by foreign agents - Imports M: demand for foreign goods and services should be subtracted from the 3 first elements Introduction to Macroeconomics TOPIC 2: Goods market, IS curve 1.1. Demand for goods - Components Demand for goods = Z ≡ C + I + G + X − M This equation is an identity. We have this relation by definition. Introduction to Macroeconomics TOPIC 2: Goods market, IS curve 1.1. Demand for goods - Components Assumption 1: we are in closed economy: X=M=0 (we will relax it later on) Demand for goods = Z ≡ C + I + G Introduction to Macroeconomics TOPIC 2: Goods market, IS curve 1.1.1. Demand for goods - Consumption Consumption: Consumption increases with the disposable income YD = Y − T Reasonable assumption: C = c0 + c1YD the parameter c0 represents what people would consume if their disposable income were equal to zero. -
METHODS in CONSUMPTION ANALYSIS: CONSUMERTHEORY, ECONOMETRIC ISSUESI and PHILIPPINE ESTIMATES Ma. Agnes R Quisurnbing This Paper
CORE Metadata, citation and similar papers at core.ac.uk Provided by Research Papers in Economics NumberTwenty=Three,Volume XIII, 1986 METHODS IN CONSUMPTION ANALYSIS: CONSUMERTHEORY, ECONOMETRIC ISSUESI AND PHILIPPINE ESTIMATES Ma. Agnes R_Quisurnbing This paper on consumption analysis will be divided into four sections: (1) a review of consumer theory and demand systems; (2) econometric issues involved in using household level data; (3) a review of Philippine estimates; and (4) the use of these estimates in nutrition policy simulation. Most of the effort in consumption analysis in recent years has been directed to obtaining functional forms which allow sufficiently flexible response coefficients, as well as to estimatin 8 income-stratum-specific demand parameters which have been used to estimate distributional impacts of various intervention policies. 1 .1. Consumer Theory and Demand Systems Complete demand systems can be derived in two ways: (1) max- imizing a utility function subject to a budget constraint, or (2) apply- Assistant Professor of Economics, University of the Philippines at Los Bal'ios. Discussionswith Robert E. Evenson, Roberto Mariano and Basilia M. Regalado have been valuable in the writing of this paper. They are, of course, not responsible for whatever errors may remain. 1. Income-group-specific parameter estimation has been. proposed on the grounds that substantial differences in consumption behavior exist at different in- come levels, and that even when compensated for the income effects of the price changes, the pure substitution, or Slutsky, elasticities are likely to be greater for low income groups. This has led Timmer (1981) to suggest that an income-related "curvature" of the Slutsky matrix exists. -
Applied Microeconomics: Consumption, Production and Markets David L
University of Kentucky UKnowledge Agricultural Economics Textbook Gallery Agricultural Economics 6-2012 Applied Microeconomics: Consumption, Production and Markets David L. Debertin University of Kentucky, [email protected] Right click to open a feedback form in a new tab to let us know how this document benefits oy u. Follow this and additional works at: https://uknowledge.uky.edu/agecon_textbooks Part of the Agricultural Economics Commons Recommended Citation Debertin, David L., "Applied Microeconomics: Consumption, Production and Markets" (2012). Agricultural Economics Textbook Gallery. 3. https://uknowledge.uky.edu/agecon_textbooks/3 This Book is brought to you for free and open access by the Agricultural Economics at UKnowledge. It has been accepted for inclusion in Agricultural Economics Textbook Gallery by an authorized administrator of UKnowledge. For more information, please contact [email protected]. __________________________ Applied Microeconomics Consumption, Production and Markets David L. Debertin ___________________________________ Applied Microeconomics Consumption, Production and Markets This is a microeconomic theory book designed for upper-division undergraduate students in economics and agricultural economics. This is a free pdf download of the entire book. As the author, I own the copyright. Amazon markets bound print copies of the book at amazon.com at a nominal price for classroom use. The book can also be ordered through college bookstores using the following ISBN numbers: ISBN‐13: 978‐1475244342 ISBN-10: 1475244347 Basic introductory college courses in microeconomics and differential calculus are the assumed prerequisites. The last, tenth, chapter of the book reviews some mathematical principles basic to the other chapters. All of the chapters contain many numerical examples and graphs developed from the numerical examples. -
Consumption Puzzles and Precautionary Savings
Journal of Monetary Economics 25 (1990) 113-136. North-Holland CONSUMPTION PUZZLES AND PRECAUTIONARY SAVINGS Ricardo J. CABALLERO* Columbia University, New York, NY 1002 7, USA Received March 1989, final version received October 1989 When marginal utility is convex, agents accumulate savings as a precautionary measure against labor-income eventualities. This paper shows that precautionary savings can go a long way in making the excess-growth, excess-smoothness, and excess-sensitivity features of consumption consistent with the stochastic processes of labor income observed in the U.S. at the microeco- nomic level. 1. Introduction Most of the empirical research on the Life-Cycle/Permanent-Income hy- pothesis (LCH/PIH), which deals with the relation between income and consumption disturbances, uses certainty-equivalence assumptions. One possi- ble explanation for the repeated use of this specification is the degree of difficulty involved in obtaining closed-form solutions in the multiperiod opti- mization problem of a consumer who faces a random sequence of (uninsur- able) labor income and whose utility function is not quadratic.’ Unfortunately, by using a quadratic utility function important aspects of the problem are ignored. Theoretical studies have shown that whenever the utility function is separable and has a positive third derivative (U “’ > 0) - a prop- erty of utility functions that exhibit nonincreasing absolute risk aversion - an increase in labor-income uncertainty, when insurance markets are not com- plete, will reduce current consumption and alter the slope of the consumption path [e.g., Leland (1968), Sandmo (1970), Dreze and Modigliani (1972), Miller (1974, 1976), Caballero (1987a), Kimball (1988), and Skinner (1988)]. -
Consumption and the Consumer Society
Consumption and the Consumer Society By Brian Roach, Neva Goodwin, and Julie Nelson A GDAE Teaching Module on Social and Environmental Issues in Economics Global Development And Environment Institute Tufts University Medford, MA 02155 http://ase.tufts.edu/gdae This reading is based on portions of Chapter 8 from: Microeconomics in Context, Fourth Edition. Copyright Routledge, 2019. Copyright © 2019 Global Development And Environment Institute, Tufts University. Reproduced by permission. Copyright release is hereby granted for instructors to copy this module for instructional purposes. Students may also download the reading directly from https://ase.tufts.edu/gdae Comments and feedback from course use are welcomed: Comments and feedback from course use are welcomed: Global Development And Environment Institute Tufts University Somerville, MA 02144 http://ase.tufts.edu/gdae E-mail: [email protected] NOTE – terms denoted in bold face are defined in the KEY TERMS AND CONCEPTS section at the end of the module. CONSUMPTION AND THE CONSUMER SOCIETY TABLE OF CONTENTS 1. INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................. 5 2. ECONOMIC THEORY AND CONSUMPTION ............................................... 5 2.1 Consumer Sovereignty .............................................................................................. 5 2.2 The Budget Line ....................................................................................................... 6 2.3 Consumer Utility ...................................................................................................... -
GDP As a Measure of Economic Well-Being
Hutchins Center Working Paper #43 August 2018 GDP as a Measure of Economic Well-being Karen Dynan Harvard University Peterson Institute for International Economics Louise Sheiner Hutchins Center on Fiscal and Monetary Policy, The Brookings Institution The authors thank Katharine Abraham, Ana Aizcorbe, Martin Baily, Barry Bosworth, David Byrne, Richard Cooper, Carol Corrado, Diane Coyle, Abe Dunn, Marty Feldstein, Martin Fleming, Ted Gayer, Greg Ip, Billy Jack, Ben Jones, Chad Jones, Dale Jorgenson, Greg Mankiw, Dylan Rassier, Marshall Reinsdorf, Matthew Shapiro, Dan Sichel, Jim Stock, Hal Varian, David Wessel, Cliff Winston, and participants at the Hutchins Center authors’ conference for helpful comments and discussion. They are grateful to Sage Belz, Michael Ng, and Finn Schuele for excellent research assistance. The authors did not receive financial support from any firm or person with a financial or political interest in this article. Neither is currently an officer, director, or board member of any organization with an interest in this article. ________________________________________________________________________ THIS PAPER IS ONLINE AT https://www.brookings.edu/research/gdp-as-a- measure-of-economic-well-being ABSTRACT The sense that recent technological advances have yielded considerable benefits for everyday life, as well as disappointment over measured productivity and output growth in recent years, have spurred widespread concerns about whether our statistical systems are capturing these improvements (see, for example, Feldstein, 2017). While concerns about measurement are not at all new to the statistical community, more people are now entering the discussion and more economists are looking to do research that can help support the statistical agencies. While this new attention is welcome, economists and others who engage in this conversation do not always start on the same page. -
The Effect of Consumer Sentiment on Consumption
Research Discussion Paper The Effect of Consumer Sentiment on Consumption Christian Gillitzer and Nalini Prasad RDP 2016-10 The Discussion Paper series is intended to make the results of the current economic research within the Reserve Bank available to other economists. Its aim is to present preliminary results of research so as to encourage discussion and comment. Views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the Reserve Bank. Use of any results from this paper should clearly attribute the work to the authors and not to the Reserve Bank of Australia. Enquiries: Phone: +61 2 9551 9830 Facsimile: +61 2 9551 8033 Email: [email protected] Website: http://www.rba.gov.au Figures in this publication were generated using Mathematica. The contents of this publication shall not be reproduced, sold or distributed without the prior consent of the Reserve Bank of Australia and, where applicable, the prior consent of the external source concerned. Requests for consent should be sent to the Secretary of the Bank at the email address shown above. ISSN 1448-5109 (Online) The Effect of Consumer Sentiment on Consumption Christian Gillitzer* and Nalini Prasad** Research Discussion Paper 2016-10 November 2016 *Economic Research Department, Reserve Bank of Australia **School of Economics, University of New South Wales We would like to thank Richard Holden, Greg Kaplan, Christopher Kent, Mariano Kulish, Terra McKinnish, James Morley, Adrian Pagan, Michael Plumb, Bruce Preston, John Simon, Ken West, Yu Zhu and seminar participants at the 2015 RBA Research Workshop, the 2nd WAMS Workshop 2015, the University of Melbourne and the University of Technology Sydney.