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Enhancing Risk Analysis Capacities for Flood, Tropical Cyclone Severe Wind and Earthquake for the Greater Metro Manila Area

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Enhancing Risk Analysis Capacities for Flood, Tropical Cyclone Severe Wind and Earthquake for the Greater Metro Manila Area FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Enhancing Risk Analysis Capacities for Flood, Tropical Cyclone Severe Wind and Earthquake for the Greater Metro Manila Area Component 4 – Tropical Cyclone Severe Wind Risk Analysis PHILIPPINE ATMOSPHERIC, GEOPHYSICAL AND ASTRONOMICAL SERVICES ADMINISTRATION GEOSCIENCE AUSTRALIA M.A. Cecilia Monteverde1, Thelma. A. Cinco1, Flavia D. Hilario1, Cynthia P. Celebre1, Analiza Tuddao1, Emma Ares1 and W. Craig Arthur2 1. Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration 2. Geoscience Australia © Republic of the Philippines and the Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia) 2014 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Contents Executive Summary ................................................................................................................................. v 1 Introduction ............................................................................................................................................ 1 1.1 Background ...................................................................................................................................... 1 1.2 Project objectives ............................................................................................................................. 2 1.3 Study area ........................................................................................................................................ 2 2 Literature Review .................................................................................................................................. 4 2.1 Historical Tropical Cyclone (TC) Data ............................................................................................. 4 2.2 LiDAR and Elevation Data ............................................................................................................... 5 2.3 Land Cover Data .............................................................................................................................. 5 2.4 Exposure Data ................................................................................................................................. 6 2.5 Vulnerability ..................................................................................................................................... 6 3 Methods ................................................................................................................................................. 8 3.1 Regional tropical cyclone severe wind hazard for the Philippines and GMMA ............................... 9 3.2 Development of site-exposure multipliers ...................................................................................... 10 3.2.1 Hillshape multiplier (Mh) ........................................................................................................... 12 3.2.2 Land cover classification .......................................................................................................... 15 3.2.3 Terrain multiplier (Mz) ............................................................................................................... 15 3.2.4 Shielding multiplier (Ms) ........................................................................................................... 17 3.3 Combined multipliers ..................................................................................................................... 18 3.4 Exposure data development .......................................................................................................... 21 3.5 Vulnerability models ....................................................................................................................... 22 3.6 Severe wind risk estimation for GMMA ......................................................................................... 25 3.6.1 Measures of damage ............................................................................................................... 25 3.6.2 Risk calculation ........................................................................................................................ 25 3.6.3 Aggregation to barangay and municipality/city level ................................................................ 27 4 Discussion ........................................................................................................................................... 28 4.1 Severe Wind Hazard ...................................................................................................................... 28 4.1.1 Regional severe wind hazard ................................................................................................... 30 4.1.2 Local severe wind hazard ........................................................................................................ 32 4.2 Estimation of damage from wind hazard ....................................................................................... 42 4.2.1 Damaged Floor Area Equivalent for the 0.2% AEP (1/500) event ........................................... 43 4.2.2 Barangay Building Damage Cost (PHP million/km²) ................................................................ 48 5 Conclusion ........................................................................................................................................... 55 References ............................................................................................................................................. 56 Appendix A - Taguig City Severe Wind Hazard Maps ........................................................................... 57 Appendix B - GMMA Severe Wind Hazard Maps .................................................................................. 63 Appendix C - Taguig City Damaged Floor Area Equivalent Maps ......................................................... 69 Appendix D - GMMA Damage Floor Area Equivalent Maps .................................................................. 75 Appendix E - Taguig City Damage Building Cost Maps ......................................................................... 80 Enhancing Risk Analysis Capacities for Earthquake, Tropical Cyclone Severe Wind and Flood for the iii Greater Metro Manila Area – Tropical Cyclone Severe Wind Risk Analysis FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Appendix F - GMMA Damage Building Cost Maps ............................................................................... 85 Appendix G - Sample Case: Typhoon Milenyo (International Name: Xangsane - 0615) ...................... 90 Appendix H - Risk calculation ................................................................................................................ 93 Measures of damage ........................................................................................................................ 94 Risk calculation process ................................................................................................................... 94 iv Enhancing Risk Analysis Capacities for Earthquake, Tropical Cyclone Severe Wind and Flood for the Greater Metro Manila Area – Tropical Cyclone Severe Wind Risk Analysis FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Executive Summary In this study, a tropical cyclone severe wind hazard modeling and impact assessment for Greater Metro Manila Area (GMMA) is presented. The Tropical Cyclone Risk Model (TCRM) developed by Geoscience Australia (GA) is used in the study to generate the regional level wind speed data across the entire Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) based on historical tropical cyclone (TC) record from 1951-2011. It uses statistical and parametric models to simulate tropical cyclone behavior and effects, and a statistical model to generate several thousand years of storms to determine an average recurrence interval or annual exceedance probability for given wind speeds. Statistical and probabilistic approaches using the General Extreme Value (GEV) and the Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) analyses are employed to model the gust wind speeds. The Regional maximum wind hazard maps for various return periods were generated for the whole Philippines using the Powell Method. The model output is combined with the analysis of the observed maximum wind speed (3-second peak gust) to adjust the various return periods (RPs) of maximum wind gust. The regional wind speed is translated into a local or site specific wind speed to account for the effects of terrain, shielding due to the building structures and topographic or hill shape factors. These factors were evaluated by using digital elevation model (DEM) and land cover classification derived from LIDAR data for GMMA using GIS and ENVI software. The wind risk assessment is a function of the interaction of the wind hazard, building exposure and the vulnerability of the building structures that will be damaged by the wind hazard. This wind risk assessment can be used to determine what might be the expected losses in terms of property damage. This will provide planners and emergency managers the estimates of the expected damage. Results show that the eastern to north-eastern part of GMMA are considered to experience the highest wind hazard. In terms of risk, the western and the central sections of GMMA are subject to severe wind impact and have a higher risk than the other half of GMMA. Said areas are densely built-up with high proportion of vulnerable building types (makeshift, wood-type) and high proportion of old structures. The expected cost of wind damage depends on the proportion
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