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Uncertainty and Hyperinflation: European Inflation Dynamics After World War I
FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF SAN FRANCISCO WORKING PAPER SERIES Uncertainty and Hyperinflation: European Inflation Dynamics after World War I Jose A. Lopez Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Kris James Mitchener Santa Clara University CAGE, CEPR, CES-ifo & NBER June 2018 Working Paper 2018-06 https://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/publications/working-papers/2018/06/ Suggested citation: Lopez, Jose A., Kris James Mitchener. 2018. “Uncertainty and Hyperinflation: European Inflation Dynamics after World War I,” Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Working Paper 2018-06. https://doi.org/10.24148/wp2018-06 The views in this paper are solely the responsibility of the authors and should not be interpreted as reflecting the views of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco or the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Uncertainty and Hyperinflation: European Inflation Dynamics after World War I Jose A. Lopez Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Kris James Mitchener Santa Clara University CAGE, CEPR, CES-ifo & NBER* May 9, 2018 ABSTRACT. Fiscal deficits, elevated debt-to-GDP ratios, and high inflation rates suggest hyperinflation could have potentially emerged in many European countries after World War I. We demonstrate that economic policy uncertainty was instrumental in pushing a subset of European countries into hyperinflation shortly after the end of the war. Germany, Austria, Poland, and Hungary (GAPH) suffered from frequent uncertainty shocks – and correspondingly high levels of uncertainty – caused by protracted political negotiations over reparations payments, the apportionment of the Austro-Hungarian debt, and border disputes. In contrast, other European countries exhibited lower levels of measured uncertainty between 1919 and 1925, allowing them more capacity with which to implement credible commitments to their fiscal and monetary policies. -
When Fear Is Substituted for Reason: European and Western Government Policies Regarding National Security 1789-1919
WHEN FEAR IS SUBSTITUTED FOR REASON: EUROPEAN AND WESTERN GOVERNMENT POLICIES REGARDING NATIONAL SECURITY 1789-1919 Norma Lisa Flores A Dissertation Submitted to the Graduate College of Bowling Green State University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY December 2012 Committee: Dr. Beth Griech-Polelle, Advisor Dr. Mark Simon Graduate Faculty Representative Dr. Michael Brooks Dr. Geoff Howes Dr. Michael Jakobson © 2012 Norma Lisa Flores All Rights Reserved iii ABSTRACT Dr. Beth Griech-Polelle, Advisor Although the twentieth century is perceived as the era of international wars and revolutions, the basis of these proceedings are actually rooted in the events of the nineteenth century. When anything that challenged the authority of the state – concepts based on enlightenment, immigration, or socialism – were deemed to be a threat to the status quo and immediately eliminated by way of legal restrictions. Once the façade of the Old World was completely severed following the Great War, nations in Europe and throughout the West started to revive various nineteenth century laws in an attempt to suppress the outbreak of radicalism that preceded the 1919 revolutions. What this dissertation offers is an extended understanding of how nineteenth century government policies toward radicalism fostered an environment of increased national security during Germany’s 1919 Spartacist Uprising and the 1919/1920 Palmer Raids in the United States. Using the French Revolution as a starting point, this study allows the reader the opportunity to put events like the 1848 revolutions, the rise of the First and Second Internationals, political fallouts, nineteenth century imperialism, nativism, Social Darwinism, and movements for self-government into a broader historical context. -
Coordination Failure and the Sinking of Titanic
The Sinking of the Unsinkable Titanic: Mental Inertia and Coordination Failures Fu-Lai Tony Yu Department of Economics and Finance Hong Kong Shue Yan University Abstract This study investigates the sinking of the Titanic from the theory of human agency derived from Austrian economics, interpretation sociology and organizational theories. Unlike most arguments in organizational and management sciences, this study offers a subjectivist perspective of mental inertia to understand the Titanic disaster. Specifically, this study will argue that the fall of the Titanic was mainly due to a series of coordination and judgment failures that occurred simultaneously. Such systematic failures were manifested in the misinterpretations of the incoming events, as a result of mental inertia, by all parties concerned in the fatal accident, including lookouts, telegram officers, the Captain, lifeboat crewmen, architects, engineers, senior management people and owners of the ship. This study concludes that no matter how successful the past is, we should not take experience for granted entirely. Given the uncertain future, high alertness to potential dangers and crises will allow us to avoid iceberg mines in the sea and arrived onshore safely. Keywords: The R.M.S. Titanic; Maritime disaster; Coordination failure; Mental inertia; Judgmental error; Austrian and organizational economics 1. The Titanic Disaster So this is the ship they say is unsinkable. It is unsinkable. God himself could not sink this ship. From Butler (1998: 39) [The] Titanic… will stand as a monument and warning to human presumption. The Bishop of Winchester, Southampton, 1912 Although the sinking of the Royal Mail Steamer Titanic (thereafter as the Titanic) is not the largest loss of life in maritime history1, it is the most famous one2. -
The Role of Transatlantic Shipping Companies in Euro-American Relations
Ports as tools of european expansion The Role of Transatlantic Shipping Companies in Euro-American Relations Antoine RESCHE ABSTRACT Between the arrival of transatlantic steamships in the 1830s and the popularization of air transport in the 1950s, shipping companies provided the only means of crossing the Atlantic, for both people as well as goods and mail. Often linked to governments by agreements, notably postal ones, they also had the important mission of representing national prestige, particularly in the United Kingdom, but also in France, Germany, and the United States. Their study thus makes it possible to determine what the promising migratory flows were during different periods, and how they were shared between the different companies. Ownership of these companies also became an issue that transcended borders, as in the case of the trust belonging to the financier John Pierpont Morgan, the International Mercantile Marine Company, which included British and American companies. A major concern from the viewpoint of states, their most prestigious ships became veritable ambassadors tasked with exporting the know-how and culture of their part of the world. Advertising poster for the Norddeutscher Lloyd company, around 1903. Source : Wikipédia Immigrant children in Ellis Island. Photograph by Brown Brothers, around 1908. Records of the Public Health Service, (90-G-125-29). Source : National Archives and Records Administration. Transatlantic Shipping Companies, Essential Actors in Euro-American Relations? Beginning with the first crossing in 1838 made exclusively with steam power, transatlantic lines were the centre of attention: until the coming of the airplane as a means of mass transportation in the 1950s, the sea was the only way to go from Europe to the United States. -
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83 Jonathan Zatlin links: Jonathan Zatlin rechts: Guilt by Association Guilt by Association Julius Barmat and German Democracy* Abstract Although largely forgotten today, the so-called “Barmat Affair” resulted in the longest trial in the Weimar Republic’s short history and one of its most heated scandals. The antidemocratic right seized upon the ties that Julius Barmat, a Jewish businessman of Ukrainian provenance, maintained to prominent socialists to discredit Weimar by equat- ing democracy with corruption, corruption with Jews, and Jews with socialists. The left responded to the right’s antidemocratic campaign with reasoned refutations of the idea that democracy inevitably involved graft. Few socialist or liberal politicians, however, responded to the right’s portrayal of Weimar as “Jewish.” The failure of the left to identify antisemitism as a threat to democracy undermined attempts to democratize the German judiciary and ultimately German society itself. And then it started like a guilty thing Upon a fearful summons.1 In a spectacular operation on New Year’s Eve 1924, the Berlin state prosecutor’s office sent some 100 police officers to arrest Julius Barmat and two of his four brothers. With an eye toward capturing headlines, the prosecutors treated Barmat as a dangerous criminal, sending some 20 policemen to arrest him, his wife, and his 13-year old son in his villa in Schwanenwerder, an exclusive neighbourhood on the Wannsee. The police even brought along a patrol boat to underscore their concern that Barmat might try to escape custody via the river Havel. The arrests of Barmat’s leading managers and alleged co-conspirators over the next few days were similarly sensational and faintly ridiculous. -
GERMANY for Australian Senior Secondary Students of Age of Imperialism Modern History
NELSON NELSON MODERNHISTORY MODERNHISTORY NELSON MODERNHISTORY Nelson Cengage has developed this series A Globalised World GERMANY for Australian senior secondary students of Age of Imperialism Modern History. The series includes titles Australia 1918–1950s that encompass the period from the 18th GERMANY century to the contemporary world and China and Revolution they explore the social, cultural and political Civil Rights in the United States of America developments that shape the 21st century. Decolonisation Written by experienced educators and 1918–1945 1918–1945 Germany 1918–1945 experts in their fields, each book builds on India a narrative framework to incorporate recent research and historiography, primary and Recognition and Rights of Indigenous Peoples secondary sources, and learning activities. Russia and the Soviet Union These key features combine to support the The American Revolution development of historical knowledge and The Changing World Order understanding and historical skills that will enable students to interpret and reflect on The Enlightenment the experience and developments that have The French Revolution created the world in which they live. The Industrial Revolution The Struggle for Peace in the Middle East United States of America 1917–1945 Germany 1918–1945 Women’s Movements The Stahlhelm (steel helmet) was introduced to the German Army in early 1916 as a protective Workers’ Rights helmet. Replacing earlier cloth and leather headgear such as the Pickelhaube, the Stahlhelm has become a potent symbol of German militarism in the first half of the 20th century. During the 1920s the right-wing veteran’s organisation, Der Stahlhelm, Bund der Frontsoldaten, which became the paramilitary wing of the German National People’s Party and was later absorbed into the SA, used the helmet as both its name and symbol. -
Kurt Von Schleicher the Soldier and Politics in the Run-Up to National Socialism: a Case Study of Civil-Military Relations
View metadata, citation and similar papers at core.ac.uk brought to you by CORE provided by Calhoun, Institutional Archive of the Naval Postgraduate School Calhoun: The NPS Institutional Archive Theses and Dissertations Thesis Collection 2013-06 Kurt von Schleicher the soldier and politics in the run-up to national socialism: a case study of civil-military relations Bitter, Alexander B. Monterey, California: Naval Postgraduate School http://hdl.handle.net/10945/34631 NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY, CALIFORNIA THESIS KURT VON SCHLEICHER—THE SOLDIER AND POLITICS IN THE RUN-UP TO NATIONAL SOCIALISM: A CASE STUDY OF CIVIL-MILITARY RELATIONS by Alexander B. Bitter June 2013 Thesis Co-Advisors: Donald Abenheim Carolyn Halladay Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK REPORT DOCUMENTATION PAGE Form Approved OMB No. 0704–0188 Public reporting burden for this collection of information is estimated to average 1 hour per response, including the time for reviewing instruction, searching existing data sources, gathering and maintaining the data needed, and completing and reviewing the collection of information. Send comments regarding this burden estimate or any other aspect of this collection of information, including suggestions for reducing this burden, to Washington headquarters Services, Directorate for Information Operations and Reports, 1215 Jefferson Davis Highway, Suite 1204, Arlington, VA 22202–4302, and to the Office of Management and Budget, Paperwork Reduction Project (0704–0188) Washington DC 20503. 1. AGENCY USE ONLY (Leave blank) 2. REPORT DATE 3. REPORT TYPE AND DATES COVERED June 2013 Master’s Thesis 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE 5. FUNDING NUMBERS KURT VON SCHLEICHER—THE SOLDIER AND POLITICS IN THE RUN-UP TO NATIONAL SOCIALISM: A CASE STUDY OF CIVIL-MILITARY RELATIONS 6. -
S/S Nevada, Guion Line
Page 1 of 2 Emigrant Ship databases Main Page >> Emigrant Ships S/S Nevada, Guion Line Search for ships by name or by first letter, browse by owner or builder Shipowner or Quick links Ships: Burden Built Dimensions A - B - C - D - E - F - G - H - I - J - K - L - operator M - N - O - P - Q - R - S - T - U - V - W - X - 3,121 1868 at Jarrow-on-Tyne by Palmer's 345.6ft x Y - Z - Æ - Ø - Å Guion Line Quick links Lines: gross Shipbuilding & Iron Co. Ltd. 43.4ft Allan Line - American Line - Anchor Line - Beaver Line - Canadian Pacific Line - Cunard Line - Dominion Line - Year Departure Arrival Remarks Guion Line - Hamburg America Line - Holland America Line - Inman Line - 1868 Oct. 17, launched Kroneline - Monarch Line - 1869 Feb. 2, maiden voyage Liverpool Norwegian America Line - National Line - Norddeutscher Lloyd - Red Star Line - - Queenstown - New York Ruger's American Line - Scandia Line - 1870 Liverpool New York Aug. 13 Liverpool & Great Wester Steam Scandinavian America Line - State Line - Swedish America Line - Temperley Line Ship Company - Norwegian American S.S. Co. - 1870 Liverpool New York Sept. 25 Liverpool & Great Wester Steam Thingvalla Line - White Star Line - Wilson Line Ship Company 1870 Liverpool New York Nov. 06 Liverpool & Great Wester Steam Agents & Shipping lines Ship Company Shipping lines, Norwegian agents, authorizations, routes and fleets. 1871 Liverpool New York Aug. 07 Agent DHrr. Blichfeldt & Co., Christiania Emigrant ship Arrivals 1871 Liverpool New York Sept. 17 Trond Austheim's database of emigrant ship arrivals around the world, 1870-1894. 1871 Liverpool New York Oct. -
Infoblatt Mit Technischen Angaben (PDF)
„Das Reichsarbeitsministerium 1933–1945: Beamte im Dienst des Nationalsozialismus“ Eine Ausstellung der Stiftung Topographie des Terrors 1_Über die Ausstellung ............................................................................................................................................................... 2 2_Inhaltlich-gestalterischer Aufbau ...................................................................................................................................... 3 3_Ausstellungselemente und technische Daten ............................................................................................................... 3 4_Grundriss im Dokumentationszentrum Topographie des Terrors ........................................................................ 4 5_Aluminiumrahmen (Kapitel 1-6) .......................................................................................................................................... 5 6_Biografiestelen .......................................................................................................................................................................... 7 7_Zitate an den Wänden ............................................................................................................................................................ 8 8_Einleitungstext .......................................................................................................................................................................... 9 9_Medienstationen und Lesepulte ...................................................................................................................................... -
Editorials Eugene Vidal
Journal of Air Law and Commerce Volume 6 | Issue 4 Article 17 1935 Editorials Eugene Vidal Martin Wronsky Follow this and additional works at: https://scholar.smu.edu/jalc Recommended Citation Eugene Vidal et al., Editorials, 6 J. Air L. & Com. 578 (1935) https://scholar.smu.edu/jalc/vol6/iss4/17 This Comment is brought to you for free and open access by the Law Journals at SMU Scholar. It has been accepted for inclusion in Journal of Air Law and Commerce by an authorized administrator of SMU Scholar. For more information, please visit http://digitalrepository.smu.edu. EDITORIALS AERONAUTICAL DEVELOPMENTS* From time to time there has been public criticism of the manner in which this Administration is dealing with civil aero- nautics, and particularly of the Administration's treatment of the scheduled air lines. Herewith are some facts and figures of an impartial nature prepared by the Bureau of Air Commerce, De- partment of Commerce, which show the progress of the industry (luring the past two years. The scheduled operators are now in the midst of a campaign of record breaking. In the first six months of 1935 the scheduled air lines (domestic and foreign extensions) flew 28,729,128 miles, carried 377,339 passengers on air journeys totaling 162,858,746 passenger miles, and transported 2,221,013 pounds of express. The passenger, passenger miles, which are after all a measure of rev- enue, and express totals were new records. The total number of passengers carried in six months, from January to June of this year, was more than double the number for the entire year 1929, and 60 per cent above 1933, the year prior to the air mail cancella- tions. -
Bibliography
Bibliography AIR FRANCE Carlier, c., ed. 'La construction aeronautique, Ie transport aenen, a I'aube du XXIeme siecle'. Centre d'Histoire de l'Industrie Aeronautique et Spatiale, Uni versity of Paris I, 1989. Chadeau, E., ed. 'Histoire de I'aviation civile'. Vincennes, Comite Latecoere and Service Historique de l'Annee de l'Air, 1994. Chadeau, E., ed. 'Airbus, un succes industriel europeen'. Paris, Institut d'Histoire de l'Industrie, 1995. Chadeau, E. 'Le reve et la puissance, I'avion et son siecle'. Paris, Fayard, 1996. Dacharry, M. 'Geographie du transport aerien'. Paris, LITEC, 1981. Esperou, R. 'Histoire d'Air France'. La Guerche, Editions Ouest France, 1986. Funel, P., ed. 'Le transport aerien fran~ais'. Paris, Documentation fran~aise, 1982. Guarino, J-G. 'La politique economique des entreprises de transport aerien, Ie cas Air France, environnement et choix'. Doctoral thesis, Nice University, 1977. Hamelin, P., ed. 'Transports 1993, professions en devenir, enjeux et dereglementation'. Paris, Ecole nationale des Ponts et Chaussees, 1992. Le Due, M., ed. 'Services publics de reseau et Europe'. Paris, Documentation fran ~ise, 1995. Maoui, G., Neiertz, N., ed. 'Entre ciel et terre', History of Paris Airports. Paris, Le Cherche Midi, 1995. Marais, J-G. and Simi, R 'Caviation commerciale'. Paris, Presses universitaires de France, 1964. Merlin, P. 'Geographie, economie et planification des transports'. Paris, Presses uni- versitaires de France, 1991. Merlin, P. 'Les transports en France'. Paris, Documentation fran~aise, 1994. Naveau, J. 'CEurope et Ie transport aerien'. Brussels, Bruylant, 1983. Neiertz, N. 'La coordination des transports en France de 1918 a nos jours'. Unpub lished doctoral thesis, Paris IV- Sorbonne University, 1995. -
Shipping Made in Hamburg
Shipping made in Hamburg The history of the Hapag-Lloyd AG THE HISTORY OF THE HAPAG-LLOYD AG Historical Context By the middle of the 19th Century the industrial revolution has caused the disap- pearance of many crafts in Europe, fewer and fewer workers are now required. In a first process of globalization transport links are developing at great speed. For the first time, railways are enabling even ordinary citizens to move their place of residen- ce, while the first steamships are being tested in overseas trades. A great wave of emigration to the United States is just starting. “Speak up! Why are you moving away?” asks the poet Ferdinand Freiligrath in the ballad “The emigrants” that became something of a hymn for a German national mo- vement. The answer is simple: Because they can no longer stand life at home. Until 1918, stress and political repression cause millions of Europeans, among them many Germans, especially, to make off for the New World to look for new opportunities, a new life. Germany is splintered into backward princedoms under absolute rule. Mass poverty prevails and the lower orders are emigrating in swarms. That suits the rulers only too well, since a ticket to America produces a solution to all social problems. Any troublemaker can be sent across the big pond. The residents of entire almshouses are collectively despatched on voyage. New York is soon complaining about hordes of German beggars. The dangers of emigration are just as unlimited as the hoped-for opportunities in the USA. Most of the emigrants are literally without any experience, have never left their place of birth, and before the paradise they dream of, comes a hell.