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Stock Assessment of Shortspine Thornyhead in 2013

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Stock Assessment of Shortspine Thornyhead in 2013 Stock Assessment of Shortspine Thornyhead in 2013 by Ian G. Taylor Andi Stephens Northwest Fisheries Science Center U.S. Department of Commerce National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Marine Fisheries Service 2725 Montlake Boulevard East Seattle, Washington 98112-2097 SAFE – Final Version February 12, 2014 Table of Contents Executive Summary ........................................................................................... 4 Stock ..................................................................................................................................... 4 Catches ................................................................................................................................. 4 Data and assessment ........................................................................................................... 5 Stock biomass ...................................................................................................................... 6 Recruitment .......................................................................................................................... 8 Exploitation status ............................................................................................................... 9 Ecosystem considerations .................................................................................................11 Reference points .................................................................................................................12 Management performance ..................................................................................................13 Unresolved problems and major uncertainties .................................................................14 Projections and Decision table ...........................................................................................14 Research and data needs ...................................................................................................19 1 Introduction ................................................................................................ 20 1.1 Distribution ................................................................................................................20 1.2 Stock structure .........................................................................................................20 1.3 Life History ................................................................................................................20 1.4 Ecosystem Considerations ......................................................................................21 1.5 Fishery Information ..................................................................................................21 1.6 Summary of Management History ...........................................................................22 1.7 Management Performance .......................................................................................22 1.8 Fisheries off Canada, Alaska, and/or Mexico ..........................................................22 2 Assessment................................................................................................ 22 2.1 Data ............................................................................................................................22 2.1.1 Biology .................................................................................................................22 2.1.2 Catch History .......................................................................................................24 2.1.3 Discards and retention .........................................................................................24 2.1.4 Fishery Length Compositions ...............................................................................24 2.1.5 Age Compositions ................................................................................................25 2.1.6 NMFS Surveys .....................................................................................................25 2.1.7 Changes in data from the 2005 assessment ........................................................27 2.1.8 Environmental and Ecological Data .....................................................................28 2.2 Model .........................................................................................................................28 2.2.1 Overview ..............................................................................................................28 2.2.2 Fishing fleets and surveys....................................................................................28 2.2.3 Parameters ..........................................................................................................28 2.3 Model Selection and Evaluation ..............................................................................30 2.3.1 Model Convergence .............................................................................................30 2.3.2 Stock assessments in Alaska ...............................................................................31 2.4 Response to STAR Panel Recommendations .........................................................31 2.5 Base-Model Results ..................................................................................................32 2.5.1 Spawning biomass and depletion .........................................................................32 2.5.2 Selectivity and retention .......................................................................................32 2.5.3 Recruitment .........................................................................................................33 2.5.4 Fit to data .............................................................................................................33 2.6 Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analyses ......................................................................34 2.6.1 Likelihood profiles ................................................................................................34 2 2.6.2 Sensitivity analyses..............................................................................................36 2.6.3 Retrospective analyses ........................................................................................36 2.6.4 Comparison to previous assessment ...................................................................37 2.6.5 Axis of uncertainty and states of nature ...............................................................37 3 Reference Points ....................................................................................... 37 4 Harvest Projections and Decision Tables ............................................... 37 5 Regional Management Considerations .................................................... 39 6 Research Needs ......................................................................................... 39 7 Acknowledgments ..................................................................................... 40 8 Literature Cited .......................................................................................... 41 9 Tables ......................................................................................................... 44 10 Figures .................................................................................................... 59 10.1 Catch history .............................................................................................................59 10.2 Distribution, Ecology and Life history .....................................................................61 10.3 Data and model fits ...................................................................................................71 10.3.1 Data summary .....................................................................................................71 10.3.2 Selectivity and retention .......................................................................................72 10.3.3 Indices and discard data ......................................................................................74 10.3.4 Length compositions ............................................................................................77 10.4 Model results .............................................................................................................92 10.4.1 Base model results ..............................................................................................92 10.4.2 Likelihood profiles, sensitivities, and retrospective analyses ................................99 Appendix A. Estimated numbers at age ....................................................... 113 Appendix B. SS data file ................................................................................ 119 Appendix C. SS control file ........................................................................... 149 Appendix D. SS starter file ............................................................................ 157 Appendix E. SS forecast file .......................................................................... 158 3 Executive Summary Stock This assessment applies to shortspine thornyhead (Sebastolobus alascanus) off of the west coast of the United States from the U.S.-Canadian border in the north to the U.S.-Mexico border in the south. Shortspine thornyheads have been reported as deep as 1,524 m, and this assessment applies to their full depth range although survey and fishery data are only available
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