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General Mills HOWARD PENNEY ([email protected]) SHAYNE LAIDLAW ([email protected]) IN THE ACTIVIST’S CROSSHAIRS LONG: BUFFALO WILD WINGS (BWLD), A WIN-WIN SCENARIO October 25, 2016 © Hedgeye Risk Management LLC. All Rights Reserved. 1 DISCLAIMER DISCLAIMER Hedgeye Risk Management is a registered investment advisor, registered with the State of Connecticut. Hedgeye Risk Management is not a broker dealer and does not provide investment advice for individuals. This research does not constitute an offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. This research is presented without regard to individual investment preferences or risk parameters; it is general information and does not constitute specific investment advice. This presentation is based on information from sources believed to be reliable. Hedgeye Risk Management is not responsible for errors, inaccuracies or omissions of information. The opinions and conclusions contained in this report are those of Hedgeye Risk Management, and are intended solely for the use of Hedgeye Risk Management’s clients and subscribers. In reaching these opinions and conclusions, Hedgeye Risk Management and its employees have relied upon research conducted by Hedgeye Risk Management’s employees, which is based upon sources considered credible and reliable within the industry. Hedgeye Risk Management is not responsible for the validity or authenticity of the information upon which it has relied. TERMS OF USE This report is intended solely for the use of its recipient. Re-distribution or republication of this report and its contents are prohibited. For more details please refer to the appropriate sections of the Hedgeye Services Agreement and the Terms of Use at www.hedgeye.com © Hedgeye Risk Management LLC. All Rights Reserved. 2 PLEASE SUBMIT QUESTIONS TO [email protected] © Hedgeye Risk Management LLC. All Rights Reserved. 3 TABLE OF CONTENTS Topics Page(s) Hedgeye Restaurant Best Ideas list…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 5 Industry Overview…..…………………………………………………………………………….……………………………………………………………………… 6-13 Introduction: LONG BWLD.………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 14-19 Let’s Start with the Positives.………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 20-24 But There is Blood in the Water…...…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 25-31 Misguided Initiatives…..……………………………………………………………………………….………………………………………………………………. 32-40 Misguided Usage of Capital…………..…….…………………………………………..………………………………………………………………………… 41-46 Company Leadership in Disarray…………………………..……………………………………………………………………………….………………….. 47-50 Activist Plan of Attack………………………………………………………………………………………………………..………………………………………… 51-55 A Walk Down Memory Lane: DRI Case Study………………………………………………………………………………………………….……….. 56-60 Both Roads Lead to a Win for Shareholders…………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 61-62 Margin Analysis…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 63-68 Commodities………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 69-70 Sentiment & Timing Considerations…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 71-78 © Hedgeye Risk Management LLC. All Rights Reserved. 4 HEDGEYE RESTAURANT IDEAS LIST LONG LIST TRADE TREND TAIL SHORT LIST TRADE TREND TAIL 1) PNRA Panera Bread Company 1) CMG Chipotle Mexican Grill X X X 2) DFRG Del Frisco's Rest. Group - 2) PLAY Dave & Buster's X X X 3) BWLD Buffalo Wild Wings 3) SBUX Starbucks X X - 4) DNKN Dunkin' Brands X X X 5) BLMN Bloomin' Brands X X X 6) JACK Jack In The Box X X - 7) DRI Darden Restaurants X X X LONG BENCH SHORT BENCH SONC Sonic SHAK Shake Shack YUM Yum! Brands TXRH Texas Roadhouse ARCO Arcos Dorados Holdings QSR Restaurant Brands Int. EAT Brinker International CAKE Cheesecake Factory RRGB Red Robin Gourmet Burger MCD McDonald's Bench = timing is not right, or research is in progress. © Hedgeye Risk Management LLC. All Rights Reserved. 5 INDUSTRY OVERVIEW © Hedgeye Risk Management LLC. All Rights Reserved. THE RESTAURANT INDUSTRY SOMETHING HAS TO GIVE! • We will need to see the industry shake out at some point DATA SOURCE: TDn2k. © Hedgeye Risk Management LLC. All Rights Reserved. 7 3Q16 WAS VERY CHALLENGING QSR GAINING SHARE FROM FAST CASUAL • The best days for the fast casual segment are behind them DATA SOURCE: TDn2k. © Hedgeye Risk Management LLC. All Rights Reserved. 8 RESTAURANTS VS GROCERY PEOPLE ARE LOOKING FOR AN EXCUSE… • Many people perpetuate the FAFH – FAH inflation spread.. • There is more evidence that it is a myth than reality DATA SOURCE: TDn2k. © Hedgeye Risk Management LLC. All Rights Reserved. 9 INDEPENDENTS VS CHAINS INDEPENDENTS ARE TAKING SHARE “There is more growth in the total restaurant sector than in the chain restaurant numbers tracked by Black Box Intelligence, suggesting other players such as independent operators and smaller regional chains may be growing faster and taking away share from the chains.” - Sarah Atkinson Higgins Senior Director, Marketing & Communications TDn2K DATA SOURCE: TDN2K. © Hedgeye Risk Management LLC. All Rights Reserved. 10 INDUSTRY SEGMENT TRENDS BROAD INDUSTRY SLOWDOWN • Fast casual is having a harder time competing DATA SOURCE: TDn2k. © Hedgeye Risk Management LLC. All Rights Reserved. 11 INDUSTRY SEGMENT TRENDS • Fast Casual could be in a secular decline DATA SOURCE: TDn2k. © Hedgeye Risk Management LLC. All Rights Reserved. 12 REGIONAL PERFORMANCE • California was the only region with positive same- store sales DATA SOURCE: TDn2k. © Hedgeye Risk Management LLC. All Rights Reserved. 13 LONG BWLD © Hedgeye Risk Management LLC. All Rights Reserved. KEY POINTS BATTLE WITH THE ACTIVIST IS ESCALATING 1 Management has yet to budge in its battle with the activist and the war is heating up. On August 17, 2016, Marcato sent a detailed letter to BWLD’s board of directors, followed by another letter on October 13th, in which they threatened legal action if The Board continued to ignore their requests for pertinent shareholder and Company information. It seems as if BWLD has poked the bear one too many times, and now the bear if forced to show its teeth, and The Board’s initial reluctance could be viewed as them not working for the benefit of the shareholders and the overall business MANAGEMENT’S INABILITY TO LEAD IS APPARENT 2 BWLD’s lack of leadership is evident in the Company’s lack of direction, as it has made irrational investments in other companies that have stalled. Additionally, the debacle that was the Analyst Day was another example of management’s lack of leadership, as they failed to provide shareholders with a level of specificity necessary to maintain confidence in the business. HISTORY WILL LIKELY REPEAT ITSELF | DRI CASE STUDY 3 Like the Darden situation, the evidence against the current BWLD management team is substantial. The road to an activist victory is often not linear, there will be bumps along the way. We are confident we know how this is going to end! A WIN-WIN SCENARIO ON THE LONG SIDE 4 If the fundamentals turn, you win. If fundamentals get worse, Sally will ultimately lose her job, and the activist/shareholders win. As expressed in our “Dear Sally” note, as the market perceives the activist gaining control, the stock price has traded higher, and the same can be expected if the fundamentals turn back on-course. DATA SOURCE: COMPANY FILINGS, HEDGEYE © Hedgeye Risk Management LLC. All Rights Reserved. 15 BUSINESS MIX BREAKDOWN Company-Owned / Franchise-Owned Beverage Mix vs. Food 65% 90% 61.0% 79% 80% 80% 76% 78% 78% 60% 57.2% 56.3% 70% 54.6% 55% 60% 50.7% 50.7% 49.3% 49.3% 50% 50% 45.4% 40% 43.7% 45% 42.8% 30% 24% 39.0% 22% 22% 21% 20% 40% 20% 35% 10% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 % Owned % Franchised Food and Non-alcoholic bev Alcoholic bev FY2015 Revenue = $1.8 billion Total Units as of 4Q15= 1,175 DATA SOURCE: COMPANY FILINGS, RESTAURANT RESEARCH, HEDGEYE RISK MANAGEMENT. © Hedgeye Risk Management LLC. All Rights Reserved. 16 PRICE PERFORMANCE BWLD HAS UNDERPERFORMED THE MARKET OVER THE LAST YEAR 1 Year Performance vs. S&P 500 3 Year Performance vs. S&P 500 110 190 105 170 100 150 95 90 130 85 110 80 90 75 70 70 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Oct-13 Apr-14 Oct-14 Apr-15 Oct-15 Apr-16 Oct-16 BWLD - Indexed S&P 500 - Indexed BWLD - Indexed S&P 500 - Indexed DATA SOURCE: FACTSET. UPDATED ON 10.18.16. © Hedgeye Risk Management LLC. All Rights Reserved. 17 5 YEAR EV/EBITDA NTM VALUATION LEVELS ARE BELOW THE 5 YEAR AVERAGE 13x 12x 11x 10x 9x 8x 7x 6x 5x Apr-11 Oct-11 Apr-12 Oct-12 Apr-13 Oct-13 Apr-14 Oct-14 Apr-15 Oct-15 Apr-16 Oct-16 Average +1 ST DEV -1 ST DEV EV / NTM EBITDA DATA SOURCE: FACTSET. UPDATED ON 10.18.16. © Hedgeye Risk Management LLC. All Rights Reserved. 18 FY16 EPS REVISIONS VS. STOCK PRICE 200 $7.50 • Estimates have stepped down 190 throughout the $7.00 year 180 170 $6.50 160 Share Price Share $6.00 150 FY EPS Estimates 140 $5.50 130 120 $5.00 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Share Price EPS - FY1 DATA SOURCE: FACTSET. UPDATED ON 10.18.16. © Hedgeye Risk Management LLC. All Rights Reserved. 19 LET’S START WITH THE POSITIVES © Hedgeye Risk Management LLC. All Rights Reserved. DESIRABLE BRAND THAT IS GROWING SHARE THIS IS A DIFFERENTIATED CONCEPT THAT DRAWS TRAFFIC Buffalo Wild Wings Market Share 14% Segment Market Share Rank Based on FYE 2015 Sales ($ Billions) 11.9% 12% 11.2% Chain System Sales % Market Share Apple $4.7 15.5% 9.8% Olive Garden $3.8 12.4% 10% 8.9% Buffalo Wild Wings $3.6 11.9% Chili's Grill & Bar $3.5 11.7% 7.7% Outback $2.6 8.5% 8% 6.7% Red Lobster $2.5 8.1% Texas Roadhouse $2.1 6.8% 5.8% 6% Cheesecake Factory $1.9 6.3% 4.7% T.G.I. Friday's $1.5 5.1% 4.0% LongHorn $1.5 5.1% 3.6% 4% 3.0% Red Robin $1.5 5.0% Ruby Tuesday $1.2 3.8% Segment Total $30.4 100% 2% 0% 2011 2013 2014 2012 2015 2010 2007 2008 2005 2006 2009 DATA SOURCE: RESTAURANT RESEARCH.
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