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BT Group PLC: Wholesale-Only Overhang

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Equity Research Telecommunications | European Telecom Services BT Group PLC 3 May 2018 Stock Rating EQUAL WEIGHT Wholesale-Only overhang from Overweight Industry View POSITIVE In a separate report published today, The Rise of Wholesale Only, we analyse the Unchanged impact Open Fiber is having in Italy and the extent to which it can be replicated Price Target GBp 280 elsewhere. Italy appears an ideal market for fostering alternative infrastructure lowered -20% from GBp 350 build (and increased retail competition). We note actual competitor builds to date in the UK have been few and far between, even if the narrative has been consistently Price (01-May-2018) GBp 245 noisy. However, we do see BT as potentially vulnerable, especially given the Potential Upside/Downside +14.3% increased focus of numerous infrastructure funds and regulatory direction. Tickers BT/A LN / BT.L Resolution of this overhang for BT looks unlikely, in our view. Reflecting this, we lower our medium-term forecasts, cut our PT to 280p and move BT to Equal Weight. Market Cap (GBP mn) 24591 Shares Outstanding (mn) 9921.90 Wholesale-only is not new – Why worry now? We have become accustomed to a Free Float (%) 84.31 spate of alternative FTTH build announcements in recent months from numerous 52 Wk Avg Daily Volume (mn) 22.4 players. In reality, FTTH build has been limited. However, having met recently with 52 Wk Avg Daily Value (GBP mn) 60.93 Open Fiber in Italy, we see an opportunity to make double-digit IRRs for alternative Dividend Yield (%) 6.3 build in markets like Italy/the UK/Germany. As in Italy, we believe key stakeholders in Return on Equity TTM (%) 22.10 the UK (broadband service providers, mobile network operators and Current BVPS (GBp) 82.34 Source: Thomson Reuters government/regulator) are keen to see the model succeed, increasing the likelihood of greater infrastructure competition for BT. For BT the problem of incumbency (material Price Performance Exchange-LSE copper FCF annuity value) makes it hard to find the right wholesale price, and/or 52 Week range GBP 3.18-2.16 accelerate FTTH build, as we discussed in UK Fibre - playing the long game (28 February 2018). Valuation appears undemanding (PT to 280p, from 350p), even on lower forecasts. Our FY19 estimates are barely impacted, but FY20e EBITDA falls 1.6%, EPS by 4%. We estimate BT trades on 5.7x March 2019E EV/EBITDA, 11.0x EV/OpFCF, 8.4% equity FCF yield and offers a 7.2% dividend yield (sector on 6.2x, 12.8x, 6.6% and 5%, respectively). Our equity and EV multiples adjust for BT’s pension deficit. Link to Barclays Live for interactive charting BT.L: Financial and Valuation Metrics EPS GBp European Telecom Services FY Mar 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Maurice Patrick EPS 26.8A 28.9A 28.0E 28.6E 28.3E +44 (0)20 3134 3622 [email protected] Previous EPS 26.8A 28.9A 28.0E 28.8E 29.3E Barclays, UK Consensus EPS 32.8A 28.7A 27.3E 28.2E 28.4E P/E 9.2 8.5 8.7 8.6 8.6 Mathieu Robilliard +44 203 134 3288 Source: Barclays Research. Consensus numbers are from Thomson Reuters received on 02-May-2018; 13:35 GMT [email protected] Barclays, UK Simon Coles +44 (0)20 3555 4519 [email protected] Barclays Capital Inc. and/or one of its affiliates does and seeks to do business with Barclays, UK companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the Daniel Morris firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors +44 (0)20 7773 2113 should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. [email protected] This research report has been prepared in whole or in part by equity research analysts Barclays, UK based outside the US who are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA. PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATION(S) AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES BEGINNING ON PAGE 15. Barclays | BT Group PLC European Telecom Services Industry View: POSITIVE BT Group PLC (BT.L) Stock Rating: EQUAL WEIGHT Income statement (£mn) 2017A 2018E 2019E 2020E CAGR Price (01-May-2018) GBp 245 Revenue 24,082 23,878 23,648 23,515 -0.8% Price Target GBp 280 EBITDA 7,645 7,505 7,509 7,449 -0.9% Why Equal Weight? We believe improving operational EBIT 4,135 4,016 3,985 3,917 -1.8% performance and continued cost-cutting can improve Finance costs - net -803 -746 -727 -686 N/A FCF generation at BT. The pension position is also Pre-tax income 2,354 2,684 3,160 3,132 10.0% likely to have materially improved by the next review, enabling BT to increase dividends and deleveraging. Tax rate (%) 19 20 19 19 0.4% Net income 1,908 2,051 2,518 2,496 9.4% EPS (adj) (GBp) 28.9 28.0 28.6 28.3 -0.6% Upside case GBp 405 Diluted shares (mn) 9,930 9,894 9,860 9,859 -0.2% If BT were to realise synergies higher than announced from its acquisition of EE (announced synergies are at DPS (£) 0.15 0.16 0.16 0.16 1.8% the low end compared with other European M&A deals) we could see upside to our price target. Margin and return data Average EBITDA margin (%) 31.7 31.4 31.8 31.7 31.7 Downside case GBp 200 EBIT margin (%) 17.2 16.8 16.9 16.7 16.9 An extended cable rollout combined with escalating Pre-tax margin (%) 9.8 11.2 13.4 13.3 11.9 content costs and increased aggression from TalkTalk Net margin (%) 7.9 8.6 10.6 10.6 9.4 represent the key downside risks to our price target. It Operating CF margin (%) 23.1 20.0 22.9 21.2 21.8 should be noted that we already assume elevated ROCE (%) 10.7 10.2 10.0 10.0 10.2 investment in Fibre. We estimate £3.1-3.3bn capex for RONTA (%) 21.0 19.4 19.6 19.2 19.8 BT (including EE) ROA (%) 7.8 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.6 ROE (%) 28.4 33.3 32.0 28.7 30.6 Upside/Downside scenarios Cash flow and balance sheet (£mn) CAGR Cash flow from operations 6,725 5,617 6,409 6,349 -1.9% Capex and acquisitions -3,123 -3,460 -3,906 -4,662 N/A Free cash flow 2,438 1,340 1,505 322 -49.0% NOPAT 3,359 3,193 3,228 3,173 -1.9% Tangible fixed assets 16,498 16,489 16,569 16,602 0.2% Intangible fixed assets 15,029 15,029 15,029 15,029 0.0% Cash and equivalents 528 -115 -568 -2,018 N/A Total assets 42,372 42,865 42,222 40,543 -1.5% Short and long-term debt 12,713 14,979 14,679 14,579 4.7% Other long-term liabilities 2,703 1,444 1,205 -247 N/A Total liabilities 34,037 34,055 32,480 29,907 -4.2% Net debt/(funds) 8,932 9,372 9,525 10,875 6.8% Shareholders' equity 8,335 8,810 9,742 10,636 8.5% Valuation and leverage metrics Average P/E (adj) (x) 8.5 8.7 8.6 8.6 8.6 Prop. EV/EBITDA 5.8 6.0 5.8 5.6 5.8 Prop. EV/OpFCF 9.9 11.1 11.1 10.7 10.7 Prop. EFCF yield (%) 8.5 7.7 8.2 9.2 8.4 P/BV (x) 2.9 2.8 2.5 2.3 2.6 Dividend yield (%) 6.3 6.5 6.6 6.6 6.5 Total debt/capital (%) 60.4 63.0 60.1 57.8 60.3 Net debt/EBITDA (x) 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.3 Selected operating metrics (k) Average Total mobile subscribers - UK 23,712 23,377 23,177 22,637 23,226 Broadband lines retail - UK 9,276 9,366 9,447 9,520 9,402 Source: Company data, Barclays Research Note: FY End Mar 3 May 2018 2 Barclays | BT Group PLC The rise of wholesale-only Our separate report this morning (The rise of the Wholesale-Only model) considers the wholesale-only business model, and makes the following key conclusions: Feedback from meeting Open We recently met with Open Fiber, the highest-profile wholesale-only infrastructure operator Fiber in Europe with plans to build an extensive FTTH network in Italy. Our key takeaways are as follows: Rollout on track – set to accelerate. After initial delays on organic rollout, the company appears to be fully on track to deliver an acceleration of FTTH roll-out in the next three years; we estimate it will pass c.2.5m homes per year and reach close to 10m homes by YE2020. Open Fiber will rely on established third-party service providers (local broadband and mobile operators) to drive the business case. There is no retail offering. Open Fiber has secured wholesale deals with Vodafone and Wind Tre and we see a clear path to monetize these investments, as service providers are keen to migrate off the incumbent. Financing secured; double-digit IRR potential. On 13th April 2018 Open Fiber indicated that it had secured financing for its investment plan, removing one source of uncertainty about the project.
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