2618 HK) % Upside 42% Attractive Valuation and Yield Limit Downside Risk Despite Lack of Catalysts
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Pan Asia Research www.equities.htisec.com Target Price HK$8.30 Distributed by Societe Generale and its affiliates Current Price HK$5.84 TCL Communication Technology Holdings (2618 HK) % Upside 42% Attractive Valuation and Yield Limit Downside Risk Despite Lack of Catalysts Technology Hardware Revise Down Earnings Forecasts and Cut TP to HK$8.30 Hong Kong Summary: We recently held a non-deal roadshow with the management of TCL 25 Nov 2015 Communication Technology Holdings (TCLC) in Shanghai. In general, investors still seem to be concerned about the company’s growth prospects, given the recent slowdown in its sales of smartphones, reflecting weakening demand in emerging markets due to BUY currency depreciation against the USD. We estimate that TCLC derives at least 60% of its total sales from emerging markets. However, most investors also acknowledge the Target: HK$8.30 attraction of the shares on a FY15–17 PER of 5.6–6.2x and dividend yield of 7.0–7.7%, % Upside: 42% which should limit the downside risk from the last close, we believe, even though we see no likely near-term catalyst for share price appreciation. Our BUY rating is on a 12-month 52wk Low HK$5.84 52wk High view, during which time TCLC’s sales of smartphones may pick up again when currencies HK$4.97 (-15%) 24 Nov 2015 HK$9.98 (71%) in emerging markets stabilize and demand picks up. Moreover, we believe that Unchanged improving stock market sentiment could lift TCLC’s multiples. Target Price and Catalyst: We have lowered our target price from HK$9.70 to HK$8.30, equal to 8.5x our new FY16 EPS forecast. Possible catalysts for share price appreciation Basic Share Information include (1) an earlier pick-up of demand in emerging markets than we expect, and Market cap HK$7.38b / US$0.95b (2) cooperation with leading Chinese internet companies to develop a new source of Daily volume (3mth) US$1.24m income from mobile internet services. Shares outstanding 1,259m Free float 32% Net debt-to-equity 27.1% Earnings: In view of a weaker outlook, we have lowered our sales and profit forecasts for 1 yr high HK$9.98 FY15–17. Q3 FY15 sales rose 8% QoQ but fell 9% YoY to HK$7.1bn, below our forecast of 1 yr low HK$4.97 HK$8.5bn and the consensus estimate of HK$8.3bn. Gross margin was 21.8%in Q3 FY15, Major shareholding 64% up from 19.0% in Q3 FY14 and 19.5% in Q2 FY15, exceeding our estimate of 19.4% and Last HTI contact w/ Co 6 Nov 15 the consensus estimate of 19.0%, mainly because of one-off sales of high-margin feature Note: Share prices and market data as of 24 November 2015 phones. OPM reached 3.2% in Q3 FY15, up from 2.7% in Q3 FY14 and 2.0% in Q2 FY15. NP in Q3 was HK$316mn, up 7.5% YoY and 18.1% QoQ but 8.6% below our estimate. Price/Volume Valuation and Risks: Our new target price of HK$8.30 is based on a PER of 8.5x our new FY16 EPS estimate, whereas our previous target price of HK$9.70 was based on 9.0x the Price Close Rel. to Hang Seng Index (rhs) 10.4 119.0 average of our previous EPS forecasts for FY15 and FY16. We forecast an NP CAGR of 5% 9.4 109.0 8.4 99.0 for FY16–17, which translates into a PEG ratio of 1.7x. Our target PER of 8.5x is in line 7.4 89.0 6.4 79.0 with TCLC’s historical mean. We expect TCLC to maintain a dividend payout ratio above 5.4 69.0 4.4 59.0 40 40% through FY17. The main risks to the attainment of our target price are: (1) slower 30 20 growth in the company’s smartphone shipments than we project due to poor execution 10 Volume m Volume by the company and continuing slowing demand from emerging markets, and (2) stiff Nov-14 Feb-15 May-15 Aug-15 competition, which could weaken the growth of TCLC’s smartphone shipments and Source: Bloomberg margins. 1mth 3mth 12mth Absolute 0.7% 16.3% -24.2% Dec-13A Dec-14A Dec-15E Dec-16E Dec-17E Trend Absolute USD 0.7% 16.3% -24.1% Total turnover (HK$m) 19,362 30,691 30,722 33,179 36,497 Relative to HSI 3.1% 10.0% -18.7% Operating profit (HK$m) 50.4 771.8 675.9 729.9 839.4 Pre-tax profit (HK$m) 298 1,149 1,246 1,280 1,369 Net income to ord equity (HK$m) 313 1,093 1,193 1,226 1,312 Jones Ku Net profit growth na 248.6% 9.2% 2.7% 7.0% Haitong International Research Ltd P/E (x) 21.23 6.38 6.16 6.00 5.61 [email protected] Adj EV/EBITDA (x) 5.86 3.66 3.43 2.85 2.32 Lily Xu P/B (x) 2.29 1.70 1.54 1.35 1.19 ROE 12.0% 31.2% 26.9% 24.0% 22.5% Haitong International Research Ltd Dividend yield 1.8% 6.8% 7.0% 7.2% 7.7% [email protected] EPS HTI old (HK$) 0.28 0.92 1.03 1.13 1.22 EPS HTI New (HK$) 0.28 0.92 0.95 0.97 1.04 Local Knowledge, Global Reach Consensus EPS (HK$) 0.25 0.89 0.89 0.88 0.94 Tokyo Office (81) 3 6402 7620 HTI EPS vs Consensus 11.4% 3.4% 6.6% 10.4% 10.6% London Office (44) 20 7397 2700 Source: Company data, Bloomberg, HTI estimates Click here to download the working model Hong Kong Office (852) 2899 7090 This research is the product of Haitong International Research Limited (“HTIRL”), which is authorized and regulated by the Securities and Futures Commission (“SFC”) of Hong Kong. It is issued by HTIRL and distributed by Société Générale (“SG”) and its affiliates in their respective jurisdictions. See the Appendix at the end of this document for the HTIRL analyst certification and non-US HTIRL analyst disclosure, Important Disclosures and Disclaimers regarding HTIRL and SG and Distribution and RegionalThis Notices document which includeis being SG’s provided EU regulators for the in the exclusive “Notice to use UK Investors”.of SAMUEL ONG (HAITONG INTERNATIONAL)Powered by EFA Platform TCL Communication Technology Holdings (2618 HK) Buy Valuation P/E (x) vs EPS Growth 800 10,000% 700 8,500% Investment Thesis 600 7,000% 500 5,500% 400 4,000% 300 2,500% 200 1,000% BUY 100 -500% 0 -2,000% Jul-13 Jul-14 Jul-15 Jul-12 Jan-15 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-12 While we see no likely near-term catalyst for share price appreciation, we see Rolling P/E (x) (lhs) EPS growth (rhs) limited downside risk for the share price from the 24 November 2015 close, given the Source: Company data, Bloomberg, HTI estimates company’s low PER and high dividend yield. Earnings Trends 2,000% On our forecasts, the PER is 6.2x in FY15, falling to 5.6x in FY17,and the dividend 1,500% 1,000% yield is 7.0–7.7%. We believe that TCLC offers one of the highest dividend yields among 500% 0% Chinese technology hardware companies listed in Hong Kong. -500% Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-13 We expect TCLC to continue to benefit from its broad exposure to emerging markets Revenue growth Operating profit growth outside China, where we foresee stronger growth in sales of smartphones than in China Net profit growth EPS growth Source: Company data, Bloomberg, HTI estimates over the next couple years. Earnings: HTI vs Consensus The company’s software business could emerge as a new earnings driver over the 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% next 2–3 years. HTI EPS HTI vs Consensus (top) Potential cooperation and alliances with leading Chinese internet companies could Consensus EPS help boost the stock’s valuation over the medium term, although the earnings 0.84 0.86 0.88 0.9 0.92 0.94 0.96 contributions from such initiatives may come later. -7% -6% -5% -4% -3% -2% -1% 0% Vivek Misra and Alain Bokobza of Société Générale recommended in their Asia HTI P/E Equity Compass published on 22 September 2015 that investors buy Chinese stocks HTI P/E at Target listed in Hong Kong on compelling valuations and receding fears of a hard landing HTI vs Consensus Consensus P/E (top) among China's investors thanks to policy easing. We believe these factors could improve market sentiment and lift TCLC's valuations. 0 2 4 6 8 10 Source: Company data, Bloomberg, HTI estimates FY15 Sales Breakdown 7.0% 4.0% Title: 36.5% Source: 52.5% Company Snapshot Europe, Middle East and Africa TCL Communication Technology Holdings (TCLC) was founded in 2004 as a subsidiary of Please fill in the values above to have them entered in your report Americas TCL Industrial Holdings (unlisted) and listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in 2004. The Asia Pacific company is a global mobile communications vendor that manufactures and markets China feature phones and smartphones. TCLC produces handsets under the brands TCL and Source: HTI estimates Alcatel OneTouch, distributes mobile phone components, and manufactures fixed-line telephone products.