The Role of German American Isolationist Tradition for Trump's
Electoral Studies 71 (2021) 102309 Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Electoral Studies journal homepage: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/electstud A swing vote from the ethnic backstage: The role of German American isolationist tradition for Trump’s 2016 victory Klara Dentler a,b,*, Thomas Gschwend c, David Hünlich d,e a Graduate School of Economic and Social Sciences, University of Mannheim, 68131, Mannheim, Germany b GESIS - Leibniz-Institute for the Social Sciences, P.O. Box 122155, 68159, Mannheim, Germany c Department of Political Science, University of Mannheim, 68131, Mannheim, Germany d IDS - Leibniz-Institute for the German Language, R 6-13, Mannheim, 68161, Germany e IMIS - Institute for Migration Research and Intercultural Studies, University of Osnabrück, Osnabrück, 49069, Germany ARTICLE INFO ABSTRACT Keywords: We question the growing consensus in the literature that European Americans behave as a homogenous pan- Ancestry ethnic coalition of voters. Seemingly below the radar of scholarship on voting groups in American politics, we Presidential election identify a group of white voters that behaves differently from others: German Americans, the largest ethnic Trump group, regionally concentrated in the ‘Swinging Midwest’. Using county level voting returns, ancestry group American politics information from the American Community Survey (ACS), current survey data and historical census data going Isolationism Assimilation back as early as 1910, we provide evidence for a partisan and a non-partisan pathway that motivated German Americans to vote for Trump in 2016: a historically grown association with the Republican Party and an acquired taste for isolationist attitudes that mobilizes non-partisan German Americans to support isolationist candidates.
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