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Hybrid Threats: Lithuania's Response Futures Approach to Saving the Baltic Sea the Baltic Rim Countries Can Lead the Change Fo

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Hybrid Threats: Lithuania's Response Futures Approach to Saving the Baltic Sea the Baltic Rim Countries Can Lead the Change Fo october 2018 ISSUE no. 3 EITVYDAS BAJARŪNAS Saara-Sofia Hybrid threats: Sirén Lithuania‘s Futures approach response to saving the Baltic Sea arto räty The Baltic Rim countries can lead the change Maximo Q. Mejia jr. for a cleaner Developing a regulatory world framework for autonomous shipping To receive a free copy, register at www.utu.fi/pei The Pan-European Institute publishes the Baltic Rim Economies (BRE) review which deals with the development of the Baltic Sea region. In the BRE review, public and corporate decision makers, representatives of Academia, as well as several other experts contribute to the discussion. Pan-European Institute ISSN 1459-9759 Editor-in-Chief | Kari Liuhto (responsible for writer invitations) Technical Editor | Reetta Mansikkaviita University of Turku Turku School of Economics Pan-European Institute Rehtorinpellonkatu 3 FI-20500 TURKU, Finland Tel. +358 29 450 5000 www.utu.fi/pei [email protected] Data protection description 31.10.2018 Baltic Rim Economies ISSUE # 3 expert articles Elsi Katainen 4 Galina Gribanova 22 Zaiga Krišjāne 42 The Baltic Sea Region - US Russia-NATO confrontation on Seeing potential of young return relationship in the current trade the Baltic Sea migrants to Latvia turbulence Ivan Kurilla 23 Evija Klave 43 Saara-Sofia Sirén 5 US – Russian relations as Third country nationals’ integration Futures approach to saving international manifestation of in Latvia the Baltic Sea domestic culture wars NICO GROENENDIJK 44 Jaakko Ossa 6 Marcin Kaczmarski 24 The Baltic States: Affluent societies? Corporate income tax in Finland Russia and China: fellow travellers Gediminas Vitkus 45 EITVYDAS BAJARŪNAS 7 Mark D. Steinberg 25 The Euroscepticism in the Baltic Hybrid threats: Lithuania‘s response The Russian revolution in prison: States: Manifested and latent When history matters Cees Bansema 8 Kārlis Krēsliņš 47 Dutch-Finnish economic relations Olavi Arens 27 Role of education in regional Brest-Litovsk in retrospect: development: A case of Ventspils Imants Lieģis 9 A hundred year Russia’s impact on regional Franka Marie Herfurth 48 security Pavel Trunin 28 Cross-border vocational education Russia’s external debt and training Aleksandr Jefimov 10 Narva is running for the title of Alexander Bulatov 29 Sigitas Brazinskas 49 European Capital of Culture Offshore orientation of Russian Digital industrial platforms as in 2024! FDI enablers of a closer Nordic integration Turo Mattila 11 Maria Zotova & Alexander Sebentsov 30 Our cybersecurity requires New challenges to the cross- Aleksandr Izgorodin 50 European deterrence border cooperation in the Lithuanian manufacturing: Rapid Kaliningrad region growth accompanied by challenges Marius Laurinavičius 12 Russian meddling in Western Heli Simola 31 Alexandra Middleton & Andrey Mineev 51 politics has been simplified Finnish-Russian trade recovering What are the business opportunities gradually and development challenges in the Wolfgang Schareck 13 Arctic? On the way to becoming a Svetlana Stepanova 32 beacon of excellence in the Cross-border tourist routes in the Aki Pulli 52 Baltic Sea Region Finnish-Russian borderland Ukraine’s increasing presence in Baltic region Piotr Stepnowski 14 Adam A. Ambroziak 33 University of Gdansk in Baltic Russia’s embargo on the Polish Tiina Ritvala 53 Sea region apple exports Grand challenges and the small wins strategy Arto Räty 15 Merit Tatar 34 The Baltic Rim countries can lead Developing smart and sustainable Aleksandra Wąsowska 54 the change for a cleaner world urban transport systems Political and social strategies of multinationals in Sub-Saharan Keith Martin 17 Maximo Q. Mejia Jr. 36 Africa: A focus on Polish firms Nord Stream 2: A European project Developing a regulatory framework in the Baltic Region for autonomous shipping Matti Ponkala 55 Cuba attracts more than ever – Tadas Jakštas 18 Milla Harju 37 Bokira´s view Maritime threats to energy security Global challenges call for local in the Baltic Sea region response through common goals Kari Liuhto 56 The future of Cuba: Reform or Miriam Holstein 20 Leonard Rozenberg & Dariusz Zarzecki 38 revolution Open innovation is the key to Shipbuilding – reality and success also in the Nordic region challenges for Poland Evgeny Lebedev 21 Tomasz Abramowski 41 Belarus-Finland investment Deep sea mining – raw materials cooperation new perspective 3 www.utu.fi/pei 31.10.2018 Baltic Rim Economies ISSUE # 3 Elsi Katainen The Baltic Sea Region - US relationship in the current trade turbulence Expert article • 2394 alking about global trade these days is a tricky matter, economy closer to EU. Simultaneously, US is creating distance especially global trade relations with US is a challenging between its own trading partners. In addition to China, the US-Russia topic. As EU Member states, all the Baltic Sea countries are trade relationship can, when taking unexpected turns, reflect strongly under the EU external trade policy. For this very reason, it on EU, especially when it comes to EU’s energy policy and supply. is hard to examine these countries as separate from the Every increased tariff or import quota US launches makes its trade Trest of the Union. What makes these countries even more relying on partners, EU among the quickest, to look for other reliable partners the common trade policy set by the EU, is the fact that their economic to import raw materials from and markets to export our products to. stability relies heavily on external trade. Protectionism harms all. During the past couple of years, namely after the election of The harm US creates with its current trade policy has unlimited the current president of the United States, global trade has been number of negative consequences. For Baltic Sea region, and for under pressure. Three years back, the whole EU, one of them is the risk the future still seemed bright: EU was of jeopardizing the functionality of the part of various ambitious plurilateral World Trade Organisation (WTO). negotiations such as the Environmental The instability of the In today’s global trade, it is merely Goods Agreement (EGA) and the impossible to speak about a functioning Trade in Service Agreement TiSA. EU current EU and US trade and fair, rule-based trading system was even negotiating a bilateral trade without WTO. The actions US serving agreement with the US. No doubt, relations is only a side president has taken to weaken the closing these agreements would have global trading institution is astonishing. been a great victory for EU, EGA effect of a bigger picture. The fact, that US is no longer willing especially for the Nordic member to trade according to jointly set rules states. Times have changed since. and norms is not beneficial to anyone, Consequences of Brexit and number of protectionist trade measures especially to US itself, in the long run. have dominated recent debate at the International Trade Committee Although Europe now must look for alternative trading partners of the European Parliament. by signing ambitious agreements, such as the one with Japan, it is Most of the Baltic Sea countries are, just like Finland, depending equally of important for EU to continue dialogue with US. We must on the global trade and global value chains. These countries are not keep engaging good trade relations with countries and markets, who self-sufficient in raw materials or in energy, and their economic growth share our values and beliefs. US is a one of our main trade partners relies mainly on goods and services sold at external markets. These and this relation is one to keep. With its unanimous and consensus- factors underline the importance of the current inflammatory state seeking trade strategy, EU has proven to be the world’s strongest and of global trade and trade relations with US. Market changes of the stable trade front. This line needs to continue in the future. Constructive near future seem challenging to predict and our trade relation with negotiations, yet firm stand underlining the importance of global rule- the US remains uncertain. The current US administration has proven based trade, is the only way to navigate in the storm. It is also crucial to be unpredictable trading partner and this can make global trade, that we have like-minded trading partners who will proceed the same especially investments related to US trade, unattractive for European way. EU should not turn its back to US but work actively to stabilise companies. the global market and guarantee that our companies have partners EU-US block accounts for more than fourth of the global GDP to trade also in the future. In this light, Baltic Sea region can act as a per year and US remains to be one of EU’s biggest trading partners. forerunner in EU trade policy. This relationship has been shadowed by the ongoing discussions of new tariffs that could harm the trade between the continents. After the steel tariff dispute spurted last spring, an interesting fact was brought Elsi Katainen up, a point which describes well the current irrationality of Trump’s Member of the European Parliament trade policy: the proposed tariffs on European manufactured steel Member of the International Trade would not even cover the asymmetric of the trade statistic EU and US Committee share on the bilateral trade. Global trade and trade relations are like domino blocks: when one falls, others will follow. The instability of the current EU and US trade relations is only a side effect of a bigger picture. The main enemy for Trump in his pre-trade war is China. However, every action US is now taking to block China from global markets is bringing the giant Eastern 4 www.utu.fi/pei 31.10.2018 Baltic Rim Economies ISSUE # 3 Saara-Sofia Sirén Futures approach to saving the Baltic Sea Expert article • 2395 asic idea in Futures studies is that the future cannot be very varying attitudes regarding the status of the sea.
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