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Defense Acquisition Research Journal Analyzing Past Trends to Predict Future ACQUISITION OUTCOMES July 2017 Vol. 24 No. 3 | ISSUE 82 Analyzing Cost Growth at Program Stages for DoD Aircraft Capt Scott J. Kozlak, USAF, Edward D. White, Jonathan D. Ritschel, Lt Col Brandon Lucas, USAF, and Michael J. Seibel Estimating Firm-Anticipated Defense Acquisition Costs with a Value-Maximizing Framework LTJG Sean Lavelle, USN Informing Policy through Quantification of the Intellectual Property Lock-in Associated with DoD Acquisition Maj Christopher Berardi, USAF, Bruce Cameron, and Ed Crawley The Impact of a Big Data Decision Support Tool on Military Logistics: Medical Analytics Meets the Mission Felix K. Chang, Christopher J. Dente, and CAPT Eric A. Elster, USN Online-only Article Beyond Integration Readiness Level (IRL): A Multidimensional Framework to Facilitate the Integration of System of Systems Maj Clarence Eder, USAF (Ret.), Thomas A. Mazzuchi, and Shahram Sarkani Online-only Article Effectiveness Test and Evaluation of Non-lethal Weapons in Crowd Scenarios: Metrics, Measures, and Design of Experiments Elizabeth Mezzacappa, Gordon Cooke, Robert M. DeMarco, Gladstone V. Reid, Kevin Tevis, Charles Sheridan, Kenneth R. Short, Nasir Jaffery, and John B. Riedener Article List The Defense Acquisition Professional Reading List Destructive Creation: American Business and ARJ Extra the Winning of World War II Written by Mark R. Wilson and reviewed by Benjamin Franklin Cooling Mr. James A. MacStravic Performing the duties of Under Secretary of Defense for Acquisition, Technology, and Logistics Mr. James P. Woolsey President, Defense Acquisition University Editorial Board Dr. Larrie D. Ferreiro Chairman and Executive Editor Mr. Richard Altieri Dr. J. Ronald Fox Dr. Yvette Rodriguez Dwight D. Eisenhower School for Harvard Business School Defense Acquisition University NationalSecurity and Resource Strategy Mr. David Gallop Dr. Richard Shipe Dr. Michelle Bailey Defense Acquisition University Dwight D. Eisenhower School for Defense Acquisition University National Security and Resource Strategy Dr. Jacques Gansler Dr. Don Birchler University of Maryland Dr. Keith Snider Center for Naval Analyses Corporation Naval Postgraduate School RADM James Greene, USN Mr. Kevin Buck (Ret.) Dr. John Snoderly The MITRE Corporation Naval Postgraduate School Defense Acquisition University Mr. John Cannaday Dr. Mike Kotzian Ms. Dana Stewart Defense Acquisition University Defense Acquisition University Defense Acquisition University Dr. John M. Colombi Dr. Craig Lush Dr. David M. Tate Air Force Institute of Technology Defense Acquisition University Institute for Defense Analyses Dr. Richard Donnelly Dr. Troy J. Mueller Dr. Trevor Taylor The George Washington University The MITRE Corporation Cranfield University (UK) Dr. William T. Eliason Dr. Christopher G. Pernin Mr. Jerry Vandewiele Dwight D. Eisenhower School for RAND Corporation Defense Acquisition University National Security and Resource Strategy Dr. Mary C. Redshaw Dwight D. Eisenhower School for National Security and Resource Strategy ISSN 2156-8391 (print) ISSN 2156-8405 (online) DOI: https://dx.doi.org/10.22594/dau.072017-82.24.03 The Defense Acquisition Research Journal, formerly the Defense Acquisition Review Journal, is published quarterly by the Defense Acquisition University (DAU) Press and is an official publication of the Department of Defense. Postage is paid at the U.S. Postal facility, Fort Belvoir, VA, and at additional U.S. Postal facilities. Postmaster, send address changes to: Editor, Defense Acquisition Research Journal, DAU Press, 9820 Belvoir Road, Suite 3, Fort Belvoir, VA 22060-5565. The journal-level DOI is: https://dx.doi.org/10.22594/ dauARJ.issn.2156-8391. Some photos appearing in this publication may be digitally enhanced. Articles represent the views of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the opinion of DAU or the Department of Defense. Director, Visual Arts & Press Randy Weekes Managing Editor Deputy Director, Norene L. Taylor Visual Arts & Press Assistant Editor Emily Beliles Production Manager, Frances Battle Visual Arts & Press Lead Graphic Designer Michael Krukowski Graphic Designer, Digital Nina Austin Publications Technical Editor Collie J. Johnson Associate Editor Michael Shoemaker Copy Editor/Circulation Debbie Gonzalez Manager Multimedia Assistant Noelia Gamboa The C3 Group & Editing, Design, and Layout Schatz Publishing Group A Publication of the Defense Acquisition University July 2017 Vol. 24 No. 3 ISSUE 82 CONTENTS | Featured Research p. 386 Analyzing Cost Growth at Program Stages for DoD Aircraft Capt Scott J. Kozlak, USAF, Edward D. White, Jonathan D. Ritschel, Lt Col Brandon Lucas, USAF, and Michael J. Seibel This research examines cost growth factors from Milestone B to various program stages for 30 Department of Defense aircraft programs. p. 408 Estimating Firm-Anticipated Defense Acquisition Costs with a Value-Maximizing Framework LTJG Sean Lavelle, USN The author uses a value-maximizing framework to predict how firms will bid under varying levels of risk sharing, allowing the government to estimate future costs more accurately. Featured Research p. 432 Informing Policy through Quantification of the Intellectual Property Lock-in Associated with DoD Acquisition Maj Christopher Berardi, USAF, Bruce Cameron, and Ed Crawley This article introduces a quantitative analysis of intellectual property lock-in trends in DoD acqui- sition. The analysis ultimately quantifies the magnitude of the problem, illustrates trends across 8 fiscal years, and correlates lock-in to internal research and development funding. p. 468 The Impact of a Big Data Decision Support Tool on Military Logistics: Medical Analytics Meets the Mission Felix K. Chang, Christopher J. Dente, and CAPT Eric A. Elster, USN This study uses a combat simulation to demon- strate how military organizations not directly involved in logistics can use decision support tools to streamline their logistics operations. It further quantifies the benefits that one such tool designed for the military medical community might generate. A Publication of the Defense Acquisition University July 2017 Vol. 24 No. 3 ISSUE 82 | Featured Research CONTENTS Beyond Integration Readiness Level (IRL): A Multidimensional Framework to Facilitate the Integration of System of Systems Maj Clarence Eder, USAF (Ret.), Thomas A. Mazzuchi, and Shahram Sarkani Data analyses of research aimed at understanding major integration issues of DoD Space Systems has been validated by experts, resulting in development of an integration assessment framework to help assess Integration Readiness Level of System of Systems. http://www.dau.mil/library/arj Effectiveness Test and Evaluation of Non-lethal Weapons in Crowd Scenarios: Metrics, Measures, and Design of Experiments Elizabeth Mezzacappa, Gordon Cooke, Robert M. DeMarco, Gladstone V. Reid, Kevin Tevis, Charles Sheridan, Kenneth R. Short, Nasir Jaffery, and John B. Riedener This article describes methods for quantitative metrics and analyses for test and evaluation of non-lethal weapons. Results from human testing are also presented. http://www.dau.mil/library/arj Featured Research | Featured Research CONTENTS p. viii 2018 Edward Hirsch Aqcuisition and Writing Award Competition p. x From the Chairman and Executive Editor p. xii Research Agenda 2017–2018 p. xvii DAU Alumni Association p. 574 Professional Reading List Destructive Creation: American Business and the Winning of World War II Written by Mark R. Wilson and reviewed by Benjamin Franklin Cooling p. 578 New Research in Defense Acquisition A selection of new research curated by the DAU Research Center and the Knowledge Repository. p. 586 Defense ARJ Guidelines for Contributors The Defense Acquisition Research Journal (ARJ) is a scholarly peer-reviewed journal published by the Defense Acquisition University. All submissions receive a blind review to ensure impartial evaluation. p. 594 Call for Authors We are currently soliciting articles and subject matter experts for the 2017–2018 Defense ARJ print years. p. 596 Defense Acquisition University Website Your online access to acquisition research, consulting, information, and course offerings. DAU ALUMNI ASSOCIATION 2018 EDWARD HIRSCH ACQUISITION AND WRITING AWARD COMPETITION CALL FOR PAPERS Research topics may include: trolling Costs Throughout the • Improving Professionalism of the Product Life Cycle Total Acquisition Workforce • Acquisition of Defense • Career Path and Incentives Business Systems • Agile Program Management • Emerging changes to EVM • Agile Software Development • System Cyber Hardness • Incorporating Foreign Military • Cyber Training and Concepts Sales and Direct Contractor Sales • Services Management Strategies into ProgramsCon- • Should Cost Management GROUND RULES • The competition is open to anyone • The format of the paper must be interested in the DoD acquisition sys- in accordance with guidelines for tem and is not limited to government articles submitted for publication in or contractor personnel. the Defense Acquisition Research Journal. • Employees of the federal government (including military personnel) are en- • Papers are to be submitted to couraged to compete and are eligible the DAU Director of Research: for cash awards unless the paper was [email protected]. researched or written as part of the employee’s official duties or was done • Papers will be evaluated by a pan- on government time. If the research el selected by the DAUAA Board of effort is performed as part of official Directors and
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