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Predicting Pelargonium Responses to Climate Change in a Biodiversity

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Predicting Pelargonium Responses to Climate Change in a Biodiversity University of Connecticut OpenCommons@UConn Doctoral Dissertations University of Connecticut Graduate School 8-8-2019 Predicting Pelargonium Responses to Climate Change in a Biodiversity Hotspot throughout South Africa Tanisha Marie Williams University of Connecticut, [email protected] Follow this and additional works at: https://opencommons.uconn.edu/dissertations Recommended Citation Williams, Tanisha Marie, "Predicting Pelargonium Responses to Climate Change in a Biodiversity Hotspot throughout South Africa" (2019). Doctoral Dissertations. 2257. https://opencommons.uconn.edu/dissertations/2257 Predicting Pelargonium Responses to Climate Change in a Biodiversity Hotspot throughout South Africa Tanisha Marie Williams, PhD University of Connecticut, 2019 Climate change is causing major shifts in species distributions, which fundamentally alters the species composition and functioning of biological communities across the globe. Projections suggest that by 2100 up to one of every six species will become extinct. Such drastic changes will have significant impacts on biodiversity patterns and ecosystem functioning. Ecologists are faced with the pressing work of trying to understand how plants will respond to changing and increasingly stressful environments. To predict the long-term effects and magnitude of species responses, it is imperative that species adaptive responses are understood across the entirety of their geographic ranges. My dissertation employs an integrative approach to study the mechanisms driving interactions between functional traits, current and future distributions, historic phenological shifts, and species survival in changing environments. I use the highly diverse and charismatic flowering plant genus, Pelargonium L’Hér., as my model system. Chapter 1 assesses whether mean annual temperatures and flowering times have changed over the century and if the changes are correlated. This phenology study provides evidence of historic responses to climate change and highlighted shifts in flowering phenology associated with increases in temperatures. Tanisha Marie Williams – University of Connecticut, 2019 Chapter 2 uses common gardens to understand how species would respond to novel environments they are projected to face in the future, and identify traits related to fitness. Species exhibited significant differences among traits and across gardens, suggesting that plasticity may have a role in aiding species persistence. Lastly, Chapter 3 evaluates the relationship between environmental predictors and species occurrences using the principle of maximum entropy and then forecasts habitat suitability into the future. Results showed a wide range of responses, with most species ranges shifting towards more hot and dry conditions, which suggests species may find themselves in unfavorable conditions if they are not able to adapt or be plastic. My research strengthens our understanding of plastic responses along an environmental gradient, assesses intraspecific and interspecific variation, identifies key indicator traits needed for species adaptability, forecast species range responses, and provides the practical framework for conservation protection and management in the highly diverse ecosystems found in South Africa. Predicting Pelargonium Responses to Climate Change in a Biodiversity Hotspot throughout South Africa Tanisha Marie Williams B.S., Pennsylvania State University, 2007 M.S., California State University Los Angeles, 2012 A Dissertation Submitted in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy at the University of Connecticut 2019 Copyright by Tanisha Marie Williams 2019 ii APPROVAL PAGE Doctor of Philosophy Dissertation Predicting Pelargonium Responses to Climate Change in a Biodiversity Hotspot throughout South Africa Presented by Tanisha Marie Williams, B.S., M.S. Co-Major Advisor ______________________________________________________________ Kent E. Holsinger Co-Major Advisor ______________________________________________________________ Carl D. Schlichting Associate Advisor ______________________________________________________________ Elizabeth L. Jockusch University of Connecticut 2019 iii Dedicated to my great-grandmother, Grace Alice Hawkins. For without her unconditional love, support and laughter this journey would have not been possible. Thank you so much. iv ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS “It takes a village.” – African Proverb This journey is not one that is taken alone. It requires a lot of support, thought-provoking conversations, laughter, early mornings, late nights, encouragement and love. I have been fortunate to have many people form my village. For the many people past and present, thank you for sharing your lives with me and being a part of this journey. Whether you have listened, encouraged, supported, cooked, laughed, given advice, etc., I thank you for your support. I am truly grateful for you! I want to thank both of my advisors, Dr. Kent E. Holsinger and Dr. Carl D. Schlichting. They accepted me into their labs but most importantly, they believed in me. I thank Kent for always reminding me of the positives and teaching me so much, especially about Bayesian statistics. I thank Carl for pushing me to critically think about my research questions and what is experiments are needed to answer these questions. I thank both my advisors for their guidance, and for allowing me to find my own path. I want to especially thank them for their valuable input throughout this journey and for being my introduction into South African ecology. I also want to thank Dr. Elizabeth L. Jockusch for being an incredible committee member and always having an open door for the many questions, setbacks, and triumphs that come with a dissertation. I couldn’t have done this without many extended advisors. I must thank Dr. Cynthia Jones, Dr. John Silander, Dr. Gregory Anderson, and Dr. Paul Lewis for their support and encouragement throughout this journey. I also want to thank the many scientists from South Africa who have supported me v throughout this journey. My external South African committee has helped with research logistics, helping me familiarize myself with South African ecology, and having me over for a meal or braai. Many thanks go to: Dr. Jasper Slingsby, Dr. Tony Verboom, Dr. Tony Rebelo, Mashudu Nndanduleni, Dr. Francis Lewu, Dr. Sussi Vetter, Dr. Terry Trinder-Smith, Timothy Jasson, Philip Crous, and Tony Dold. I have to thank the many EEB and CLAS personnel who have helped along the way. I want to thank Pat Anderson for always having a smile, supportive words and being such a caring friend. I also want to thank all those who have supported my degree: Kathleen Tebo, Anne St. Onge, Lois Limberger, Mary Brescia, Dr. Robert Capers, Clinton Morse, Nicholas McIntosh, Nicholas Boston, and Madeline Hennessey. Thank you so much for all your help and for allowing me to always drop by and ask questions. I have to thank the EEB Department for their continued support throughout my degree. I also want to thank the many faculty and staff members who have helped along the way. Thank you all for asking how my day was going, how research was treating me, and having such kind words of support. I also want to thank the EEB graduate students for the many study sessions, reading groups, and social gatherings. I want to thank a few special people for their friendship and for always going above and beyond. I want to thank Kristen Nolting for being the best lab sister and friend. I truly can’t thank you enough for all the support, especially during the final months (and years) of this degree. I want to thank Kaitlin Gallagher, Katherine Taylor, and Lauren Stanley for being great friends and a great support group. There were so many friends along the way, but I have to vi give special thanks to: Dr. Holly Milton Brown, Dr. Johana Goyes, Dr. Jessie Rack, Dr. Suman Neupane, Dr. Cera Fisher, and Dr. Veronica Bueno. I was fortunate enough to have two labs, dubbed the Schlolsinger Lab. I want to thank the Holsinger Lab for the many great times in the US and South Africa! I also thank the lab members for cultivating my love for the UConn Women’s basketball team. Thank you, Kristen Nolting and Dr. Nora Mitchell for all your support! I want to thank past members of the Holsinger Lab for their valuable help with research and during the postdoc/job search phase. Thanks go to: Dr. Jane Carlson, Chris Adams, Dr. Rachel Prunier, and Dr. Krissa Skogen. I have to thank the Schlichting Lab for the many lab meetings, social outings, barbecues, and laughs. Many thanks go to: Dr. Timothy Moore, Dr. James Mickley, Dr. Kat Shaw, and Dr. Jessica Lodwick. I thank the wonderful people from around UConn that have helped support my journey. I have met so many wonderful people through the Fulbright, McNair Scholars, LSAMP, and the Bridge to Doctorate STEM programs. I thank all of the faculty, staff, and students that I was able to work with throughout the years. Special thanks go to: Dr. Rowena Grainger, LuAnn Saunders- Kanabay, Dr. Renee Gilberti, and Dr. Aida Ghiaei. I would like to thank my family for all your love and support during my life, this journey would not be possible without you. You continue to always be a source of happiness. I want to thank my mother, Christine C. Hawkins, my grandfather, William Hawkins, and my great- grandmother, Grace Alice Hawkins for all their love. I want to recognize my aunts Beatrix D. Fields, Esq. and Dr. Bonnie Davis, and my grandmother Alice T. Davis for all your support
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