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16April 2020 India Daily INDIA DAILY April 16, 2020 India 15-Apr 1-day 1-mo 3-mo Sensex 30,380 (1.0) (3.2) (27.6) Nifty 8,925 (0.8) (3.0) (27.8) Contents Global/Regional indices Dow Jones 23,504 (1.9) 16.4 (19.8) Daily Alerts Nasdaq Composite 8,393 (1.4) 21.6 (10.3) Results FTSE 5,598 (3.3) 8.7 (26.4) Wipro: Tougher test awaits Nikkei 19,312 (1.3) 13.6 (19.3) Hang Seng 24,145 (1.2) 4.7 (16.4) Change in Reco KOSPI 1,831 (1.4) 3.3 (18.0) Zee Entertainment Enterprises: And again, one step forward, two back Value traded – India Company alerts Cash (NSE+BSE) 687 526 463 13,81 Derivatives (NSE) 11,099 8,084 Tata Motors: Tough CY2020 but company will remain afloat 0 Sector alerts Deri. open interest 2,042 2,854 3,862 Banks: Hands tied Economy alerts Forex/money market Change, basis points Economy: 'Normal' monsoons on the cards 15-Apr 1-day 1-mo 3-mo Economy: WPI inflation softens; focus on growth Rs/US$ 76.6 12 231 560 10yr govt bond, % 6.9 (5) 10 (20) Net investment (US$ mn) 13-Apr MTD CYTD FIIs (139) 219 (6,384) MFs (154) (619) 4,782 Top movers Change, % Best performers 15-Apr 1-day 1-mo 3-mo DRRD IN Equity 3,808 1.6 34.7 29.6 DIVI IN Equity 2,395 2.3 26.6 26.1 CDH IN Equity 339 (4.1) 36.0 25.5 CIPLA IN Equity 592 (0.1) 49.8 23.7 HUVR IN Equity 2,488 6.0 28.1 21.4 Worst performers IHFL IN Equity 92 (2.2) (40.3) (70.2) IIB IN Equity 424 3.3 (36.1) (69.4) EDEL IN Equity 35 (1.6) (44.6) (66.5) RBK IN Equity 121 2.5 (26.0) (65.2) TTMT IN Equity 73 (1.8) (12.1) (63.1) [email protected] Contact: +91 22 6218 6427 For Private Circulation Only. FOR IMPORTANT INFORMATION ABOUT KOTAK SECURITIES’ RATING SYSTEM AND OTHER DISCLOSURES. REFER TO THE END OF THIS MATERIAL. REDUCE Wipro (WPRO) IT Services APRIL 16, 2020 RESULT Sector view: Cautious Tougher test awaits. Wipro’s revenue growth of 0.4% met our estimate, while margin CMP (`): 187 decline disappointed. FCF generation declined sharply partly on account of higher receivables. Tough FY2021 awaits the industry courtesy Covid-19; Wipro has the additional Fair Value (`): 195 challenge of dealing with CEO change and energizing a multi-year underperforming BSE-30: 30,380 ship. We do not expect any quick fixes and expect underperformance to continue. We cut estimates further; expect steeper revenue contraction in FY2021E and only marginal recovery in FY2022E. REDUCE stays; we cut our FV to Rs195 from Rs200. Wipro Stock data Forecasts/valuations 2020 2021E 2022E 52-week range (Rs) (high,low) 302-159 EPS (Rs) 16.6 15.8 17.1 Mcap (bn) (Rs/US$) 1,066/14 EPS growth (%) 11.1 (5.0) 8.3 ADTV-3M (mn) (Rs/US$) 984/13 P/E (X) 11.2 11.8 10.9 Shareholding pattern (%) P/B (X) 2.0 1.7 1.6 Promoters 74.0 EV/EBITDA (X) 6.5 6.4 5.6 FIIs 10.9 RoE (%) 17.3 15.1 14.9 MFs/BFIs 1.3/5.8 Div. yield (%) 0.8 1.1 4.6 Price performance (%) 1M 3M 12M Sales (Rs bn) 615 597 622 Absolute (5) (25) (35) EBITDA (Rs bn) 127 117 124 Rel. to BSE-30 6 4 (17) Net profits (Rs bn) 97 90 97 0.7-0.8% revenue impact due to Covid-19; EBIT margin declines 80 bps on higher staff costs Wipro reported in-line sequential c/c and yoy revenue growth of 0.4% and 2.6% in March 2020 quarter. Revenues declined 1% in reported terms to US$2,074 mn. Service discontinuity due to inability of employees to work from home and project cancellations/ ramp down attributed to Covid-19 impacted March-20 quarter revenues by US$14-US$16 mn (0.7-0.8% of revenues). Four of the seven verticals— banking, consumer, communications and manufacturing reported qoq revenue decline while healthcare and technology grew by 2.3% and 3.2% sequentially. From a service line standpoint, BPO declined 5.3% qoq while other service lines were flat or reported marginal growth. IT services EBIT margin declined 80 bps qoq to 17.6% missing our estimates by 120 bps even as Rupee depreciation (+40 bps margin tailwind), higher utilization (+320 bps qoq) and reduced S&M and travel expenses provided tailwind to margins. IT services employee costs increased 140 bps, adversely impacting margins in the quarter. Net income at Rs23.3 bn declined 5.3% qoq and 6.3% yoy due to miss at EBIT level. FCF generation at 37% of net income was weak in the quarter due to advance payment of employee wages i.e. March 31 vs the usual first day of next month. DSO increased by 2 to 88 yoy as collections in March declined due to a few glitches Long list of headwinds—pricing pressure, higher credit days, discretionary spending cuts Wipro highlighted a list of concerns that were expected—instances of clients reducing budgets, cutting discretionary spends, pricing discounts, restructuring existing IT spends and even extended payment terms. Retail, airlines, hospitality, airports, oil and auto have faced higher impact. Combined, these verticals could account for ~20% of revenues. The company did not quantify the impact of the above factors. Wipro suspended its long practice of providing quarterly revenue guidance. We forecast sequential revenue decline of 6.5% in June 2020 and 1.9% in September 2020 quarters. We forecast revenue decline of 4.3% in FY2021E in c/c. Kawaljeet Saluja Twin challenges—external environment and internal execution; Cautious view stays FY2021E will be a challenging year for the industry. Wipro has the additional challenge of Sathishkumar S dealing with a CEO change. The new CEO, when announced, will have the unenviable task of fixing execution, tightening performance management systems, fine-tuning of strategy and building up mega-deal engine. This is a tough assignment even in a healthy environment; leave alone in a possible recessionary scenario. We do not expect any quick fix solutions. Expect revenue decline of 4.3% in c/c in FY2021E, EBIT margin decline of 150 bps and EPS decline of 5%. Maintain REDUCE with a FV of Rs195 valuing the company at ~11X FY2022E earnings [email protected] Contact: +91 22 6218 6427 For Private Circulation Only. FOR IMPORTANT INFORMATION ABOUT KOTAK SECURITIES’ RATING SYSTEM AND OTHER DISCLOSURES, REFER TO THE END OF THIS MATERIAL. Wipro IT Services The stock may seem inexpensive but multiples are fair for a company that has barely grown even in a healthy demand environment. Suspends guidance; a good move Wipro suspended quarterly revenue guidance. We believe this is a sensible move. With fast- paced changes to spending and pricing, it will be difficult to gauge revenue stream for any business manager. Rather than anchor the business around a guidance number, the current situation demands flexibility to deal with customer demands, and be nimble on execution. Here is Wipro’s statement on guidance, “Due to the uncertainty around the course of the Covid-19 pandemic, we do not have visibility into the extent to which it will disrupt our operations, and we have decided to not provide revenue guidance for the quarter ending June 30, 2020. We anticipate that we will resume providing revenue guidance when we have increased certainty of both demand and supply side factors” Free cash flow impacted due to payment of salary in advance and high DSO FCF/ net income was down to 37% from the usual range. The decline was due to—(1) payment of employee salaries on March 31 as compared to the usual April 1. This reduced the payables and impacted cash conversion to the extent of 30% of net profit, (2) increase in receivable collection cycle by 2 days on yoy comparison. This was due to technical glitches due to sudden lockdown impacting collections. We expect weak operating and free cash generation in FY2021 as the company (and the industry) may agree to customer demand of a longer credit cycle temporarily. We model a nine-day increase in DSO (including unbilled revenues) in FY2021E. Payout ratio to be maintained Wipro will continue to use buyback as the primary form of payout to shareholders. Expect miniscule dividend payout (Rs1/ share). The company is eligible to announce next buyback in September 2020. Search for new CEO on; a challenging assignment Search for new CEO after Abidali Neemuchwala resigned in the month of January 2019. Wipro will look at both external and internal candidates for the post. Wipro’s growth turnaround thread requires additional focus on a few important areas—(1) performance management systems have scope for further tightening, (2) focus on fewer verticals. Wipro has lost relevance in some of the verticals. While it is imperative to keep the existing relationships going, allocation of growth funds can be directed towards core verticals, (3) mega-deals are a critical growth driver. Wipro has announced deals sporadically in the past as compared to competition. The company has the full service suite to offer but may have been constrained by sales/ large deals team execution. At a broader level a new CEO would have the tough task of taking Wipro out of the vicious cycle of slower growth feeding through talent management to wallet share of clients spending budget.
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