European Economy. Convergence Report 2004

Total Page:16

File Type:pdf, Size:1020Kb

European Economy. Convergence Report 2004 European Economy Convergence Report 2004 – Technical annex A Commission services working paper SEC(2004)1268 PROVISIONAL LAYOUT The definitive version will be published as European Economy No 6/2004 http://europa.eu.int/comm/economy_finance/publications/european_economy/convergencereports2004_en.htm Acknowledgements This paper was prepared in the Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs under the supervision of Klaus Regling, Director-General, and Antonio J. Cabral, Deputy Director-General. The main contributors to the paper were Johan Baras, Sean Berrigan, Carsten Brzeski, Adriaan Dierx, Christine Gerstberger, Alexandr Hobza, Fabienne Ilzkovitz, Filip Keereman, Paul Kutos, Baudouin Lamine, João Nogueira Martins, Moises Orellana Pena, Lucio R. Pench, Jiri Plecity, Stéphanie Riso, Delphine Sallard, Charlotte Van Hooydonk, Johan Verhaeven and Joachim Wadefjord. Country-specific contributions were provided by Georg Busch, Juan Ramon Calaf Sole, Nathalie Darnaut, Per Eckefeldt, Luis Fau Sebastian, Barbara Kauffmann, Filip Keereman, Viktoria Kovacs, Carlos Martinez Mongay, Marek Mora, Willem Noë, Mateja Peternelj, José Luis Robledo Fraga, Agnieszka Skuratowicz, Siegfried Steinlein, Kristine Vlagsma, Helga Vogelmann and Ralph Wilkinson. Charlotte Van Hooydonk edited the paper. Statistical and technical assistance was provided by Vittorio Gargaro, Tony Tallon and André Verbanck. Contents 1. Introduction and overview.................................................................................................................1 1.1. Introduction................................................................................................................................. 1 1.2. Application of the criteria ........................................................................................................... 2 1.2.1. Legal compatibility ............................................................................................................................... 2 1.2.2. Price stability......................................................................................................................................... 3 1.2.3. Government budgetary position............................................................................................................ 5 1.2.4. Exchange rate stability .......................................................................................................................... 5 1.2.5. Long-term interest rate convergence..................................................................................................... 6 1.2.6. Additional factors.................................................................................................................................. 6 2. Compatibility of national legislation with the Treaty as well as with the Statute of the European System of Central Banks and of the European Central Bank .......................................9 2.1. Introduction................................................................................................................................. 9 2.2. Scope of necessary adaptation of national legislation................................................................ 9 2.2.1. General.................................................................................................................................................. 9 2.2.2. Objectives ........................................................................................................................................... 10 2.2.3. Independence ...................................................................................................................................... 10 2.2.4. Integration of NCBs in the ESCB and other legislation...................................................................... 11 2.2.5. Prohibition of monetary financing ...................................................................................................... 13 2.2.6. Legislation outside the scope of Article 109 of the Treaty.................................................................. 13 2.3. Timing of adaptation................................................................................................................. 13 2.4. Situation in the Member States ................................................................................................. 14 2.4.1. Czech Republic ................................................................................................................................... 14 2.4.1.1. Current legal situation ............................................................................................................... 14 2.4.1.2. Assessment of compatibility...................................................................................................... 15 2.4.2. Estonia................................................................................................................................................. 15 2.4.2.1. Current legal situation ............................................................................................................... 15 2.4.2.2. Assessment of compatibility...................................................................................................... 16 2.4.3. Cyprus................................................................................................................................................. 16 2.4.3.1. Current legal situation ............................................................................................................... 16 2.4.3.2. Assessment of compatibility...................................................................................................... 17 2.4.4. Latvia .................................................................................................................................................. 17 2.4.4.1. Current legal situation ............................................................................................................... 17 2.4.4.2. Assessment of compatibility...................................................................................................... 17 2.4.5. Lithuania ............................................................................................................................................. 18 2.4.5.1. Current legal situation ............................................................................................................... 18 2.4.5.2. Assessment of compatibility...................................................................................................... 18 2.4.6. Hungary............................................................................................................................................... 18 2.4.6.1. Current legal situation ............................................................................................................... 18 2.4.6.2. Assessment of compatibility...................................................................................................... 19 2.4.7. Malta ................................................................................................................................................... 19 2.4.7.1. Current legal situation ............................................................................................................... 19 2.4.7.2. Assessment of compatibility...................................................................................................... 20 2.4.8. Poland ................................................................................................................................................. 20 2.4.8.1. Current legal situation ............................................................................................................... 20 2.4.8.2. Assessment of compatibility...................................................................................................... 21 2.4.9. Slovenia............................................................................................................................................... 21 2.4.9.1. Current legal situation ............................................................................................................... 21 2.4.9.2. Assessment of compatibility...................................................................................................... 21 2.4.10. Slovakia.......................................................................................................................................... 22 2.4.10.1. Current legal situation ............................................................................................................... 22 2.4.10.2. Assessment of compatibility...................................................................................................... 22 2.4.11. Sweden ........................................................................................................................................... 22 2.4.11.1. Current legal situation ............................................................................................................... 22 2.4.11.2. Assessment of compatibility...................................................................................................... 23 3. Price stability ....................................................................................................................................27 3.1. The price stability criterion .......................................................................................................27
Recommended publications
  • EURO Based Currency Union: Motivation for Muslim Countries’ Economic Growth
    www.ccsenet.org/ijbm International Journal of Business and Management Vol. 6, No. 3; March 2011 EURO Based Currency Union: Motivation for Muslim Countries’ Economic Growth Mohammad Naveed Ahmed Department of Business Administration & Tourism Management Yunnan University, Kunming, China E-mail: [email protected] Kanya Hemman Department of Business Administration & Tourism Management Yunnan University, Kunming, China E-mail: [email protected] Abstract In economics, a monetary union is a situation where several countries have agreed to share a single currency (also known as a unitary or common currency) among them, for example, the EURO currency. A currency union differs from an economic and monetary union, where it is not just currency but also economic policy that is pooled or coordinated by a region. This paper will look into the EURO currency based currency union to see whether it really improves the member countries economic performance or not, which might be the motivation for Muslim countries to organize a currency union for their growth. To do this research, the economic data are collected from the World Bank Development Indicators database. Keywords: Currency Union, EURO, Gold dinar 1. Introduction Currency union is adoption of a single currency by a bunch of countries. European Union (EU) has recently formed a currency union by adopting a single currency called euro. Dollar inflation is the primary economic motivation and compulsion to seek a European substitute for the dollar. Primary aim under European Monetary Union (EMU) was to guarantee a price stability through monetary policy conducted by independent European central bank (ECB) using a single European currency.
    [Show full text]
  • Small Economies in the Euro Area
    CONTENTS EDITORIAL Mitja Gaspari: Jumping the Last Hurdle Towards the Final Stage of Convergence 1 MACROECONOMIC FRAMEWORK OF SMALL OPEN ECONOMY Willem H. Buiter and Anne C. Sibert: When Should the New Central European Members Join the Eurozone? 5 George Kopits: Policy Scenarios for Adopting the Euro 12 Dejan Krušec: Common Monetary Policy and Small Open Economies 17 Lars Calmfors: The Revised Stability and Growth Pact – A Critical Assessment 22 Fabio Mucci and Debora Revoltella: Banking Systems in the New EU Members and Acceding Countries 27 Mathilde Maurel: The Political Business Cycles in the EU Enlarged 38 FINANCIAL MARKETS AND FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS IN EMU Kevin R. James: Small Countries, Big Markets: Achieving Financial Stability in Small Sophisticated Economies 43 Garry J. Schinasi and Pedro Gustavo Teixeira: Financial Crisis Management in the European Single Financial Market 47 Franjo Štiblar: Consolidations and Diversifications in Financial Sector 56 Fabrizio Coricelli: Financial Deepening and Financial Integration of New EU Countries 70 THE CASE OF SLOVENIA Ivan Ribnikar: Slovenian »Transition« and Monetary Policy 75 Igor Masten: Expected Stabilization Effects of Euro Adoption on Slovenian Economy 83 Velimir Bole: Fiscal Policy in Slovenia after Entering Euro – New Goals and Soundness? 87 Božo Jašovič and Borut Repanšek: Application of the Balance Sheet Approach to Slovenia 95 STATISTICAL APPENDIX Matjaž Noč: Selected Macroeconomic and Financial Indicators 105 EDITORIAL Jumping the Last Hurdle Towards the Final Stage of Convergence Mitja Gaspari * n 1 January 2007, Slovenia will join the 12 current members of the euro area and adopt the single European currency. This is a historic moment for Slovenia and for euro area enlargement.
    [Show full text]
  • Lessons from the European Monetary System
    Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland August 15, 1987 exchange-rate considerations. Because been compromised by exchange-rate many facets of policymaking and imple- of Germany's economic importance volatility of nonparticipating currencies mentation. The slow progress of the ISSN 0428·127 within the European Community, the vis-a-vis the ERM currencies. European community with respect to the other participant countries have had to In particular, the Deutsche mark tends ERM and policy coordination, however, adjust their domestic policies or their to appreciate against other European exemplifies the difficulties of achieving exchange rates to remain competitive in currencies when the dollar depreciates. 9 agreements on these many points. Im- international markets under the con- The January 1987 realignment in the plementing target zones on a wider scale ECONOMIC Lessons from the straint of German monetary policy. ERM, for example, was necessitated in would be all the more difficult. Differ- Nations participating in the ERM large part because the dollar's deprecia- ences in preferences, policy objectives, European Monetary arrangement often buy and sell foreign tion against the Deutsche mark caused and economic structures account in part System currencies to defend their exchange the mark to appreciate relative to the for these difficulties. rates. Unfortunately, when such inter- other currencies in the ERM. Such re- More fundamentally, however, coor- by Nicholas V. Karamouzis vention is not supported by a change in a COMMENTARY alignments become necessary because dination of macroeconomic policies will nation's monetary policy, nor coordi- international investors do not hold all not necessarily benefit all participant nated with the intervention activities of ERM currencies in equal proportions in countries equally, and those that benefit other central banks, it only has a limited their portfolios and because of economic the most may not be willing to compen- influence on exchange rates.
    [Show full text]
  • European Union
    EUROPEAN UNION Brussels, 27 June 2004 COMMUNIQUE At the request of the Slovenian authorities, the ministers of the euro area Member States of the European Union, the President of the European Central Bank and the ministers and the central bank governors of Denmark and Slovenia have decided, by mutual agreement, following a common procedure involving the European Commission and after consultation of the Economic and Financial Committee, to include the Slovenian tolar in the Exchange Rate Mechanism II (ERM II). The central rate of the Slovenian tolar is set at 1 euro = 239.640 tolar. The standard fluctuation band of plus or minus 15 percent will be observed around the central rate of the tolar. The agreement on participation of the tolar in ERM II is based on a firm commitment by the Slovenian authorities to continue to take the necessary measures to lower inflation in a sustainable way: these include most notably measures aimed at further liberalising administered prices and advancing further with de-indexation, in particular of the wage and certain social transfer setting mechanisms. Continued vigilance will be needed so that domestic cost developments, in particular wages, are in line with productivity growth. The authorities, together with the responsible EU bodies, will closely monitor macroeconomic developments. Fiscal policy will have to play a central role in controlling demand-induced inflationary pressures and financial supervision will assist in containing domestic credit growth. Structural reforms aimed at further enhancing the economy’s flexibility and adaptability will be implemented in a timely fashion so as to strengthen domestic adjustment mechanisms and to maintain the overall competitiveness of the economy.
    [Show full text]
  • Central Bank Sterilization Policy: the Experiences of Slovenia and Lessons for Countries in Southeastern Europe1
    √ Workshops Proceedings of OeNB Workshops Any Lessons for Southeastern Europe? Lessons for Any Emerging Markets: Any Lessons for Southeastern Europe? Emerging Markets: Emerging March 5 and 6, 2007 12 No. Workshops N0. N0. Workshops 12 Stability and Security. Central Bank Sterilization Policy: The Experiences of Slovenia and Lessons for 1 Countries in Southeastern Europe Darko Bohnec Banka Slovenije Marko Košak University of Ljubljana 1. Introduction It is well known that countries in the Southeastern European (SEE) region have experienced a substantial and gradually intensified inflow of foreign capital during the entire period of economic transition (Markievicz, 2006). Central banks in those countries had to adapt their monetary policy operations and exchange rate regimes to the changing conditions. Especially in those countries that responded by implementing a managed floating exchange rate regime, central banks had to find viable solutions in order to support the “consistency triangle” policy framework (Bofinger and Wollmershaeuser, 2001). Advocates of the “consistency triangle” policy framework claim that simultaneous determination of the optimum interest rate level and the optimum exchange rate path is possible. Effective sterilization procedures need to be activated by the central bank in order for the policy framework to be operational. The experiences of some developing countries in the 1990s confirm the viability of sterilization as a key element of the central bank’s monetary policy in circumstances of intensified inflow of foreign capital (Lee, 1996). However, certain limitations to this kind of strategy exist, which in most cases central banks need to address properly by developing alternative procedures and instruments instead of classical open-market operations.
    [Show full text]
  • Three Essays on European Union Advances Toward a Single Currency and Its Implications for Business and Investors Charlotte Anne Bond Old Dominion University
    Old Dominion University ODU Digital Commons Theses and Dissertations in Business College of Business (Strome) Administration Winter 1998 Three Essays on European Union Advances Toward a Single Currency and Its Implications for Business and Investors Charlotte Anne Bond Old Dominion University Follow this and additional works at: https://digitalcommons.odu.edu/businessadministration_etds Part of the Finance and Financial Management Commons, International Business Commons, and the International Relations Commons Recommended Citation Bond, Charlotte A.. "Three Essays on European Union Advances Toward a Single Currency and Its Implications for Business and Investors" (1998). Doctor of Philosophy (PhD), dissertation, , Old Dominion University, DOI: 10.25777/mc19-6f14 https://digitalcommons.odu.edu/businessadministration_etds/77 This Dissertation is brought to you for free and open access by the College of Business (Strome) at ODU Digital Commons. It has been accepted for inclusion in Theses and Dissertations in Business Administration by an authorized administrator of ODU Digital Commons. For more information, please contact [email protected]. Three Essays on European Union Advances Toward A Single Currency and its Implications for Business and Investors by Charlotte Anne Bond A dissertation submitted to the Faculty of Old Dominion University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor o f Philosophy (Finance) Old Dominion University College of Business Norfolk, Virginia (December 1998) Approved by: Mohammad Najand (Committee Chair) \ tee Member) Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. UMI Number: 9921767 Copyright 1999 by Bond, Charlotte Anne All rights reserved. UMI Microform 9921767 Copyright 1999, by UMI Company. All rights reserved. This microform edition is protected against unauthorized copying under Title 17, United States Code.
    [Show full text]
  • WM/Refinitiv Closing Spot Rates
    The WM/Refinitiv Closing Spot Rates The WM/Refinitiv Closing Exchange Rates are available on Eikon via monitor pages or RICs. To access the index page, type WMRSPOT01 and <Return> For access to the RICs, please use the following generic codes :- USDxxxFIXz=WM Use M for mid rate or omit for bid / ask rates Use USD, EUR, GBP or CHF xxx can be any of the following currencies :- Albania Lek ALL Austrian Schilling ATS Belarus Ruble BYN Belgian Franc BEF Bosnia Herzegovina Mark BAM Bulgarian Lev BGN Croatian Kuna HRK Cyprus Pound CYP Czech Koruna CZK Danish Krone DKK Estonian Kroon EEK Ecu XEU Euro EUR Finnish Markka FIM French Franc FRF Deutsche Mark DEM Greek Drachma GRD Hungarian Forint HUF Iceland Krona ISK Irish Punt IEP Italian Lira ITL Latvian Lat LVL Lithuanian Litas LTL Luxembourg Franc LUF Macedonia Denar MKD Maltese Lira MTL Moldova Leu MDL Dutch Guilder NLG Norwegian Krone NOK Polish Zloty PLN Portugese Escudo PTE Romanian Leu RON Russian Rouble RUB Slovakian Koruna SKK Slovenian Tolar SIT Spanish Peseta ESP Sterling GBP Swedish Krona SEK Swiss Franc CHF New Turkish Lira TRY Ukraine Hryvnia UAH Serbian Dinar RSD Special Drawing Rights XDR Algerian Dinar DZD Angola Kwanza AOA Bahrain Dinar BHD Botswana Pula BWP Burundi Franc BIF Central African Franc XAF Comoros Franc KMF Congo Democratic Rep. Franc CDF Cote D’Ivorie Franc XOF Egyptian Pound EGP Ethiopia Birr ETB Gambian Dalasi GMD Ghana Cedi GHS Guinea Franc GNF Israeli Shekel ILS Jordanian Dinar JOD Kenyan Schilling KES Kuwaiti Dinar KWD Lebanese Pound LBP Lesotho Loti LSL Malagasy
    [Show full text]
  • Exchange Rate Statistics
    Exchange rate statistics Updated issue Statistical Series Deutsche Bundesbank Exchange rate statistics 2 This Statistical Series is released once a month and pub- Deutsche Bundesbank lished on the basis of Section 18 of the Bundesbank Act Wilhelm-Epstein-Straße 14 (Gesetz über die Deutsche Bundesbank). 60431 Frankfurt am Main Germany To be informed when new issues of this Statistical Series are published, subscribe to the newsletter at: Postfach 10 06 02 www.bundesbank.de/statistik-newsletter_en 60006 Frankfurt am Main Germany Compared with the regular issue, which you may subscribe to as a newsletter, this issue contains data, which have Tel.: +49 (0)69 9566 3512 been updated in the meantime. Email: www.bundesbank.de/contact Up-to-date information and time series are also available Information pursuant to Section 5 of the German Tele- online at: media Act (Telemediengesetz) can be found at: www.bundesbank.de/content/821976 www.bundesbank.de/imprint www.bundesbank.de/timeseries Reproduction permitted only if source is stated. Further statistics compiled by the Deutsche Bundesbank can also be accessed at the Bundesbank web pages. ISSN 2699–9188 A publication schedule for selected statistics can be viewed Please consult the relevant table for the date of the last on the following page: update. www.bundesbank.de/statisticalcalender Deutsche Bundesbank Exchange rate statistics 3 Contents I. Euro area and exchange rate stability convergence criterion 1. Euro area countries and irrevoc able euro conversion rates in the third stage of Economic and Monetary Union .................................................................. 7 2. Central rates and intervention rates in Exchange Rate Mechanism II ............................... 7 II.
    [Show full text]
  • Number 37 May 2000 Euro Coins from Design to Circulation
    EUROPEAN COMMISSION Number 37 May 2000 (XURFRLQV From design to circulation © European Communities, 2000. (XURFRLQV )URPGHVLJQWRFLUFXODWLRQ 'LUHFWRUDWH*HQHUDOIRU(FRQRPLFDQG)LQDQFLDO$IIDLUV EURO COINS 7+(/(*$/%$6(6 7KH7UHDW\ 7KHWZR5HJXODWLRQVRI0D\ &5($7,1*7+((852&2,16 &KRRVLQJWKHQDPH &KRRVLQJWKHGHQRPLQDWLRQVRIWKHFRLQV 'HWHUPLQLQJWKHWHFKQLFDOVSHFLILFDWLRQVRIWKHFRLQV &KRRVLQJWKHFRPPRQVLGHRIWKHFRLQV &KRRVLQJWKHQDWLRQDOVLGHRIWKHFRLQV &UHDWLQJFROOHFWRUFRLQV…………………………………………………………………………..16 352'8&,1*7+((852&2,16 'HWHUPLQLQJWKHTXDQWLWLHVWRSURGXFH &RQWUROOLQJTXDOLW\ 3527(&7,1*7+((852&2,16« )LOLQJDFRS\ULJKWRQWKHFRPPRQVLGHV 3UHYHQWLQJDQGVXSSUHVVLQJFRXQWHUIHLWLQJ ,1752'8&,1*7+((852&2,16 )LQDOLVLQJWKHVFKHGXOHIRUWKHLQWURGXFWLRQRIWKHFRLQV 'HILQLQJWKHOHQJWKRIWKHSHULRGRIGXDOFLUFXODWLRQ ,1)250$7,216+((76 1R7KHFKRLFHRIWKHHXURV\PERO««««««««««««««««««««««««« 1R6LWXDWLRQRI0RQDFR9DWLFDQ&LW\DQG6DQ0DULQR« 1R8VHIXO,QWHUQHWOLQNV« 1R$GGUHVVHVDQGFRQWDFWVRIWKHFRLQWHVWLQJFHQWUHV« $11(;(6 $UWLFOH H[D RIWKH7UHDW\HVWDEOLVKLQJWKH(XURSHDQ&RPPXQLW\« &RXQFLO5HJXODWLRQ (& 1RRI0D\RQWKHLQWURGXFWLRQRIWKHHXUR &RXQFLO 5HJXODWLRQ (& 1R RI 0D\ RQ GHQRPLQDWLRQV DQG WHFKQLFDO VSHFLILFDWLRQV RI HXUR FRLQV LQWHQGHGIRUFLUFXODWLRQ««« 2/45 &RXQFLO5HJXODWLRQ (& 1RRI)HEUXDU\DPHQGLQJ5HJXODWLRQ (& 1RRQGHQRPLQDWLRQV DQGWHFKQLFDOVSHFLILFDWLRQVRIHXURFRLQVLQWHQGHGIRUFLUFXODWLRQ««««««««« &RPPLVVLRQ5HFRPPHQGDWLRQRI-DQXDU\FRQFHUQLQJFROOHFWRUFRLQVPHGDOVDQGWRNHQV«« 5HSRUWIURPWKH&ROOHFWRU&RLQ6XEJURXSRIWKH0':*IRUWKH(XUR&RLQ6XEFRPPLWWHHRIWKH()&«« &RXQFLO 'HFLVLRQ RI $SULO H[WHQGLQJ (XURSRO V PDQGDWH
    [Show full text]
  • Information Guide Economic and Monetary Union
    Information Guide Economic and Monetary Union A guide to the European Union’s Economic and Monetary Union (EMU), with hyperlinks to sources of information within European Sources Online and on external websites Contents Introduction .......................................................................................................... 2 Background .......................................................................................................... 2 Legal basis ........................................................................................................... 2 Historical development of EMU ................................................................................ 4 EMU - Stage One ................................................................................................... 6 EMU - Stage Two ................................................................................................... 6 EMU - Stage Three: The euro .................................................................................. 6 Enlargement and future prospects ........................................................................... 9 Practical preparations ............................................................................................11 Global economic crisis ...........................................................................................12 Information sources in the ESO database ................................................................19 Further information sources on the internet .............................................................19
    [Show full text]
  • Currencies of the European Union. Eurozone European Union
    CURRENCIES OF THE EUROPEAN UNION. EUROZONE EUROPEAN UNION The European Union (EU) is an economic and political union of 28 member states which are located primarily in Europe. The EU traces its origins from the European Coal and Steel Community (ECSC) and the European Economic Community (EEC), formed by six countries in 1958. CURRENCIES OF THE EUROPEAN UNION As of 2015 there are 11 currencies; The principal currency - Euro (used by 19 members of the EU – Eurozone); All but 2 states are obliged to adopt the currency: Denmark and the United Kingdom, through a legal opt-out from the EU treaties, have retained the right to operate independent currencies within the European Union. The remaining 8 states must adopt the Euro eventually. CURRENCIES OF THE EUROPEAN UNION № Currency Region Year Euro adoption plans 1 Euro Eurozone 1999/2002 Also used by the institutions 2 Bulgarian lev Bulgaria 2007 No target date for euro adoption British pound sterling United Kingdom 3 1973 Opt-out Gibraltar pound Gibraltar 4 Croatian kuna Croatia 2013 No target date for euro adoption 5 Czech koruna Czech Republic 2004 No target date for euro adoption 6 Danish krone Denmark 1973 Opt-out 7 Hungarian forint Hungary 2004 No target date for euro adoption 8 Polish złoty Poland 2004 No target date for euro adoption 9 Romanian leu Romania 2007 Official target date: 1 January 2019 10 Swedish krona Sweden 1995 Pending referendum approval Also unofficially used in Büsingen Campione 11 Swiss franc 1957 am Hochrhein, Germany. Swiss d'Italia(Italy) Franc is issued by Switzerland. EUROZONE The European Union consists of those countries that meet certain membership and accession criteria.
    [Show full text]
  • Currency Crisis and Collapse in Interwar Greece
    8 Currency crisis and collapse in interwar Greece: Predicament or Policy Failure? Nicos Christodoulakis This version: December 2012 Currency crisis and collapse in interwar Greece: Predicament or Policy Failure? Nicos Christodoulakis Abstract: In 1928 Greece viewed the anchoring to the Gold Exchange Standard as the imperative choice of the time in order to implant financial credibility and carry over an ambitious plan of reforms to modernise the economy. After the pound sterling exited the system in 1931, Greece, instead of following suit, chose a defence that drove interest rates at high levels, squeezed the real economy and exhausted foreign reserves. Unable to borrow from abroad, it quitted the system in 1932 and the Drachma was heavily devalued. Despite a rise in competitiveness, improvements in the trade balance were hindered by the wave of protectionism, while the erosion of real incomes cut domestic demand and unemployment continued to rise. Rather than a fast recovery after the collapse, the country entered a period of acute social and political instability that ended with the imposition of dictatorship in 1936. The lessons are relevant today for the costs that Greece would likely face by exiting the Eurozone. A model of Balance of Payments crises with partial capital controls is employed to analyze the response of currency pegs to external shocks and examine under which circumstances the regime collapses. Its main predictions are found to be in agreement with the actual outcomes in 1932. JEL classification : N14, N24, F32. Keywords: Gold Exchange Standard, reserves, exchange rate. Acknowledgement: I am deeply thankful to three anonymous referees for valuable suggestions and corrections on earlier drafts.
    [Show full text]