Dædalus Journal of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences Winter 2018 Ending Civil Wars: Constraints & Possibilities Karl Eikenberry & Stephen D. Krasner, guest editors with Francis Fukuyama Tanisha M. Fazal · Stathis N. Kalyvas Charles T. Call & Susanna P. Campbell · Lyse Doucet Thomas Risse & Eric Stollenwerk · Clare Lockhart Tanja A. Börzel & Sonja Grimm · Steven Heydemann Seyoum Mesfin & Abdeta Dribssa Beyene Nancy E. Lindborg & J. Joseph Hewitt Richard Gowan & Stephen John Stedman Sumit Ganguly · Jean-Marie Guéhenno The Last English Civil War Francis Fukuyama Abstract: This essay examines why England experienced a civil war every fifty years from the Norman Conquest up until the Glorious Revolution of 1688–1689, and was completely stable after that point. The reasons had to do with, first, the slow accumulation of law and respect for the law that had occurred by the seventeenth century, and second, with the emergence of a strong English state and sense of nation- al identity by the end of the Tudor period. This suggests that normative factors are very important in cre- ating stable settlements. Rational choice explanations for such outcomes assert that stalemated conflicts will lead parties to accept second- or third-best outcomes, but English history, as well as more recent expe- riences, suggests that stability requires normative change as well. In establishing the rule of law, the first five centuries are always the hardest. –Gordon Brown Following the Norman Conquest in 1066, England experienced a civil war roughly every fifty years. These conflicts, often extremely bloody, continued up until the great Civil War of the 1640s. The issues underlying the latter conflict were not finally re- solved until the Glorious Revolution of 1688–1689, bringing about a constitutional settlement that es- FRANCIS FUKUYAMA is a Senior tablished once and for all the principle of parliamen- Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Insti- tary supremacy. The last battle to be fought on En- tute for International Studies and the Mosbacher Director of the glish soil was the Battle of Sedgemoor in 1685; from Center on Democracy, Develop- that moment up until the present, England itself has ment, and the Rule of Law at Stan- been peaceful and internally stable.1 ford University. He is the author Why was England so unstable in the nearly six cen- of Political Order and Political Decay: turies following the Conquest, and so stable there- From the Industrial Revolution to the after? To answer this question, we must look at the Globalization of Democracy (2014), history of those earlier civil wars, and compare their The Origins of Political Order: From Prehuman Times to the French Revolu- causes and resolutions with the last civil war in the tion (2011), and America at the Cross- seventeenth century. We can then compare this rec- roads: Democracy, Power, and the Neo- ord against existing general theories of civil conflict conservative Legacy (2006). and against specific interpretations of English history. © 2018 by the American Academy of Arts & Sciences doi:10.1162/DAED_a_00470 15 The Last To anticipate the bottom line of this analy- fell apart after Jonas Savimbi decided he English sis, the durability of the 1689 settlement was strong enough to resume the civil war. Civil War proceeded from two primary factors: first, In Bosnia, the 1995 Dayton Accords finally the slow accumulation both of law and re- brought an end to the civil war, with each spect for the law on the part of English po- side accepting what, for them, was a sec- litical actors; and second, the emergence of ond-best outcome. The Bosniaks had to ac- an English state and a strong sense of En- cept a semi-autonomous Republika Srpska, glish national identity. These explanations while the Serbs did not succeed in either depend heavily on normative changes that separating or joining Serbia. While this has took place in English political conscious- brought stability to the Western Balkans for ness during the late Middle Ages and, par- more than twenty years, the Accords appear ticularly, on innovative ideas about politi- to be fraying in 2017 as the weakening of the cal sovereignty that took hold in the second European Union and the emboldening of half of the seventeenth century. Rational Russia have increased the self-confidence choice explanations that assume that all of the Serbian community. elites are maximizing predators, and see The problem with the rational choice in- stability as the result of elite bargains, are terpretation is that several prior English insufficient to explain these outcomes. civil wars had produced a similar outcome: This interpretation has important impli- the dethroning or effective political neu- cations for our approach to the settlement tering of a king by other elites, followed by of civil wars today. The rational choice in- a political settlement that put the monar- terpretation suggests that settlements oc- chy under clear constitutional constraints. cur as a result of stalemated conflicts in Yet, unlike the results of the Glorious Rev- which the warring parties recognize that olution, none of these earlier settlements their second- or third-best outcome–a ne- were “self-enforcing”: the king imme- gotiated political agreement–has become diately sought to break free of legal con- more appealing than continuing to strug- straints once the balance of power shift- gle for their first-best choice (total victory ed back in his favor. Second-best outcomes for their side). Economists Douglass North were not preferable to maximal ones if the and Barry Weingast have argued that the latter seemed feasible. Two other things Glorious Revolution produced a “self-en- are needed for durable settlements: a nor- forcing” equilibrium due to the fact that mative belief in the intrinsic value of con- two monarchs had been removed by Par- stitutionalism and the rule of law, and state liament, forcing future monarchs to accept institutions that have some degree of au- limits on predatory behavior.2 tonomy from the competing political fac- There are several contemporary examples tions. Paradoxically, the emergence of a of fragile stalemated settlements. In Cam- constrained state required the prior evo- bodia, the United Nations sponsored elec- lution of a state made strong by its under- tions and then a power-sharing arrange- lying legitimacy and capacity. Absent these ment including Prime Minister Hun Sen, factors, political settlements are likely to who succeeded, as soon as he was strong be nothing more than truces in prolonged enough to do so, in overturning the arrange- competitions for power, as they were for ment through a coup in 1997. In Angola, the English over the span of many centu- the peace accords negotiated in the early ries. This suggests that we need to lower 1990s between the People’s Movement for our expectations for the sustainability of the Liberation of Angola and the National postconflict settlements and focus more Union for the Total Independence of Angola on bringing about normative change. 16 Dædalus, the Journal of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences During the Middle Ages, the English tween his daughter Mathilda and her hus- Francis fought an extraordinary number of civil band Geoffrey Plantagenet of Anjou, on the Fukuyama wars, here defined as a violent conflict in one side, and Henry’s nephew Stephen of which organized groups within a single so- Blois, on the other. This civil war eventual- ciety seek to gain political power and, ul- ly led to the establishment of the Angevin timately, dominance. In the English case, Plantagenet dynasty and the coronation of these wars occasionally involved tens of Geoffrey’s son as Henry II. Henry II and his thousands of combatants on both sides, son Richard I were strong authoritarian rul- and led to the deaths of equal numbers of ers who provided domestic stability. people, especially when we include collat- The second civil war occurred less than eral civilian casualties. a generation later in 1173, when Henry II’s In this section, I present a brief overview three oldest sons and wife took up arms of English political history, together with against him and, in effect, sought to seize an analysis of the common characteristics the crown from him. The rebellion was put of English civil wars.3 Many of these con- down in about a year. flicts had a structure like the last civil war The next civil war involved King John. of the seventeenth century: they involved While he is popularly remembered as a a struggle for power between a king and great tyrant, he was not necessarily more his “barons,” that is, powerful elites who cruel or tyrannical than his two Angevin sought to limit the king’s power. Several of predecessors.4 However, he exacted large these wars produced constitutional settle- payments from his barons to fight an un- ments in which the parties agreed to a for- successful war to expand his French posses- mal legal specification of the rights and du- sions, which he subsequently lost after de- ties of both the crown and its subjects. Yet feat at the Battle of Bouvines. In May 1215, a none of these earlier settlements, including group of barons took up arms; the conflict the Magna Carta, proved enforceable over was stalemated and the two sides negoti- a prolonged period of time. ated, producing the charter at Runnymede England’s medieval history was punctu- that came to be known as the Magna Carta. ated by its conquest in 1066 by a foreign, The Magna Carta contained a large num- French-speaking dynasty from Normandy ber of specific provisions to regulate be- led by William the Conqueror. The Nor- havior on both sides and embodied gener- man Conquest itself was one of the caus- al principles that played an important role es of subsequent instability: the Norman in the development of property rights in En- kings had to manage territorial possessions gland.