LAO NATIONAL COMMISSION ON DRUG CONTROL AND SUPERVISION

Annual Opium Poppy Survey

1999/2000

With the support of UNDCP – Laos and the Illicit Crops Monitoring Programme. Vientiane, October 2000 Table of contents

Summary...... 3 Introduction ...... 4 I. The 2000 National Opium Survey...... 5 Objectives...... 5 Methodology...... 5 The Baseline...... 5 The Random Sample...... 5 The Interviews and Field Measurement...... 6 The opium growing farmers interview ...... 6 The field measurement ...... 6 Organisation and Staff...... 7 Training ...... 9 Survey constraints...... 9 Data processing ...... 9 II. Survey findings ...... 10 Provincial Poppy Cultivation...... 10 District Poppy Cultivation ...... 14 Location of Poppy Cultivation...... 16 Yield ...... 17 Production ...... 19 Comparison of the 1992, 1996, 1998 and 2000 results...... 20 Opium Prices...... 21 Addiction ...... 22 Field Damage ...... 25 Annexes:...... 26 Annex 1 :The Baseline questionnaire...... 26 Annex 2 Number of villages surveyed by district...... 27 Annex 3 The village survey questionnaires...... 28 Annex 4 The field measurement method...... 29 Annex 5 The yield estimate...... 30 Annex 6 List of Supervisors...... 31 Annex 7 Training Schedule...... 32 Annex 8 Estimation by District...... 34 Annex 9 Map of Opium Poppy Cultivation by District...... 35 Annex 10Map of Villages Cultivating Opium Poppy...... 36 Annex 112000 Opium Farm Gate Price...... 37 Annex 12Addiction by District...... 38

Lao Annual Opium Poppy Survey 2000 Page 2 Summary

The Lao National Commission on Drug Control and Supervision, jointly with UNDCP, conducted opium poppy survey in 1992, 1996, 1998 and 2000. The surveys are primarily a monitoring tool and aim to provide information on the extent of cultivation of opium poppy, the production of its derivative, the opium gum, and its addiction in the country. The surveys provide a resource that contributes to planning and resource allocation.

Like the previous survey, the survey covering the 1999-2000 opium season was based on a sampling methodology. The baseline data were established in collaboration with the district authorities and then a sample of villages was surveyed. At the village level, the surveyors interviewed the village headman and opium poppy farmers. The surveyors physically measured a sample of opium poppy fields.

In 2000, 391 villages were surveyed out of the 6,404 villages of the 11 provinces of northern Laos.

Main Findings of the 2000 Opium Survey Cultivation Nationally, the survey estimated that there were 19,052 hectares of opium poppy under cultivation in the 1999-2000 season. This represented a reduction in total opium poppy area of nearly 30% compared with the 1998 estimate of 26,800 ha.

The survey confirmed that opium poppy cultivation mainly took place in the 6 provinces targeted by the Opium Elimination Programme. The cultivation in these 6 provinces accounted for 93 % of the total area under cultivation.

In every district where alternative development projects are being implemented, a significant decrease was noticeable.

Yield and Production The national yield was estimated at 8.7 kg/ha with important provincial variations. The total production ranged at about 167 tons of raw opium.

Opium Addiction The estimate for opium addiction indicated similar pattern then previous survey. The total number of opium addicts was estimated at 62,895 persons, against 63,248 persons in 1998. At the national level, this represented 2.26% of the population above 15 years old. In the northern provinces alone, the rate was 4.84% of the population above 15 years old.

Opium Prices. At the country level, the farm gate price of opium was estimated at 695,257 KIP/kg (or 92 USD/kg), but with important provincial variations. The 1998 survey estimated the price of one kilo of raw opium at 65 USD.

Lao Annual Opium Poppy Survey 2000 Page 3 Introduction

The first comprehensive survey to produce national estimate took place only in 1992. This survey was jointly undertaken by the Government of Lao PDR and UNDCP. The survey was based on a inventory of all known opium-producing villages and data from a sample of opium producing villages. Similar surveys were conducted in 1996 and 1998.

The information provided by the surveys constituted an invaluable tool for planning activities to tackle the supply and demand sides of opium use. In particular, the in-depth survey carried out in 1998 was used in the selection of the programme area of the “Balance Approach to Opium Elimination in Lao PDR”.

The 2000 survey, providing estimates for the 1999-2000 opium growing season, followed the methodology used in the previous surveys, but introduced the use of new technology instruments such as GPS during the field work and Geographical Information System for mapping the results.

This survey was conducted by the Lao National Commission on Drug Control and Supervision (LCDC), in close collaboration with the provincial and district authorities. In particular, the newly established provincial drug control committees directly participated to the survey. The National Statistics Center provided methodological guidance, tools and staff from survey inception to analysis. The UNDCP provided financial and technical support.

Lao Annual Opium Poppy Survey 2000 Page 4 I. The 2000 National Opium Survey

Objectives

The main objective of the survey was to provide information on the extent of area planted with opium poppy and its location. The secondary objectives were to provide information regarding the yield, from which the production was estimated, the farm gate price of opium and the addiction rate.

The information provided by the previous surveys and the present one, constitute a unique and rich picture of the opium producing region and its people. It is a good basis for planning and monitoring and is used in the selection of the Programme area of the “Balanced Approach to Opium Elimination in Lao PDR”.

Methodology

The 2000 survey, like the 1992, 1996 and 1998 surveys, was ground based and carried out in a sample of villages in the 10 northern provinces of Lao PDR and the Saysomboun Special Region. As there is no evidence of opium cultivation in the southern provinces of the country, these provinces are not covered by the opium surveys.

Only a random sample of villages was surveyed. This required as an initial step the building of a baseline (or a population) from which the sample was drawn.

The Baseline

The baseline questionnaires were sent to every district prior to the fieldwork, in December 1999. The questionnaires were pre-filled with the official codes and village names provided by the National Statistics Centre. The district authorities were requested to provide information on the village demography, opium growing status and the estimated number of households growing opium. An example of baseline questionnaire is in Annex 1.

The Random Sample

From the baseline, a random sample of villages was drawn. A table of random numbers was used for the village selection. A total of 391 villages were surveyed, out of the 6,404 villages considered for the survey, i.e. about 6.10% of the villages in northern Laos.

The number of villages to be surveyed in each district depends on the opium cultivation ranking of the district in the 1998 survey and the total number of villages in the district. To satisfy the survey objectives within the time and budget constraint the focus was put on the villages reported growing opium poppy. A number of villages reported not growing opium were also surveyed, mainly to collect data on opium addiction in these

Lao Annual Opium Poppy Survey 2000 Page 5 villages. In the main opium cultivating districts (defined as the 34 districts contributing to 85% of the total area estimated in 1998), about 8% of the villages in each district were surveyed. The villages of the other districts were put together and a random sample of about 4% of these villages was drawn. A summary of the number of villages surveyed by district is in Annex 2.

The Interviews and Field Measurement

A ground based approach means that the data were collected by interviews of key informants and by physical measurement of the opium fields. The interviews followed a questionnaire and were made of 3 parts: the village leader interview, the opium growing farmer interview and the field measurement. The questionnaires are in Annex 3.

The village leader interview

The main purpose of the village headman interview was to obtain first hand information on the village demography and the number of households growing opium. These information were used to cross-check or complement the data provided by the district authorities.

Another very important information that was gathered at this stage was the number of opium addicts by gender and age.

Other information included the walking time to the opium fields, the opium farm gate price and for some villages, the geographical co-ordinates were measured with GPS1 instruments.

The opium growing farmers interview

From the village headman’s list of households and by using table of random numbers, a random sample of farmers growing opium was drawn. Between 6 and 10 opium farmers were interviewed in each village.

The main purpose of this interview was to collect data on the number of opium fields cultivated by farmer and the opium farm gate price.

The field measurement

Once the farmer’s interview was completed, the opium farmer led the surveyors to the opium fields. A number of data were gathered directly from the surveyor inspection of the field as well as by additional questions to the farmer regarding the field being surveyed.

The surveyor, using the same equipment2 and method as for the Lao Agricultural Census (98/99) then measured the opium field. All the fields cultivated by the farmers are measured. A description of the measurement method is in Annex 4.

1 Global Positioning System 2 Rented from the National Statistics Center

Lao Annual Opium Poppy Survey 2000 Page 6 Where the opium fields were matured, the surveyors measured the capsule diameter and height to be used for the yield estimate. A description of the yield estimate methodology is in Annex 5.

2000 National Opium Survey Provinces 11 Districts 82 Villages 6,404 Villages surveyed 391 Opium fields for area measurement 1,899 Opium fields for yield measurement 516 Capsules measured 20,546

Organisation and Staff

The Lao Commission on Drug Control and Supervision (LCDC) conducted the survey, in close collaboration with the provincial and district authorities. In particular, the newly established provincial drug control committee directly participated in the survey. The UNDCP provided financial support as well as technical support through the Illicit Crops Monitoring Programme.

The survey team leader was the Chief of the Narcotic and Psychotropic Department and member of the LCDC. He was assisted in his work by 10 supervisors recruited from various line ministries. The list of the supervisors is in Annex 6.

After being trained, each supervisor was assigned a province. Two provincial technicians were requested to assist each supervisor. Together, the provincial surveyor and the supervisor went at the district level to collect the baseline and select the villages to survey. The assistance of 6 district technicians was requested and a training was conducted by the supervisor. In each district, 3 teams, headed by the supervisor or the provincial surveyor, were formed and sent to the selected villages. The supervisor was responsible for carrying out the random selection of villages, train the district and provincial technicians, organise the teams and their schedule.

At the village level, the village headman was first interviewed. The opium farmers were randomly selected from the village leader population list. After the opium farmer interview, field measurements took place. The supervisor or the provincial technicians conduct all interviews. The district technicians assisted in locating the village, translating if required and in field measurement.

Lao Annual Opium Poppy Survey 2000 Page 7 The survey was also conducted in alternative development projects. Technical staff from UNDCP projects, NCA, GTZ and the Lao-American projects attended the training and actively participated in the opium survey in their respective project area.

2000 National Opium Survey Central Level Supervisor 11 Project Surveyors 5 Field activities started 10/01/00 Field activities ended 03/04/00

Lao Annual Opium Poppy Survey 2000 Page 8 Training

In January, a one-week training for the supervisors took place in Vientiane. The training covers interview techniques, description of the survey process, description of the questionnaires, the use of GPS, the field measurement technique, the capsule measurement technique, the random selection of villages and opium farmers. A 2 days field practice took place at Ban Talat.

After this training, the surveyors, some of whom participated in the previous survey, were able to train the provincial surveyor and organise the field work. The training schedule is in Annex 7.

In the fields, the surveyors could rely on an “instruction manual” that described all steps of the survey, including the interviews, the field measurement and the random sampling methods.

Survey constraints

The use of GPS was limited to the central level supervisors. Only 10 teams were equipped with GPS during the survey.

To avoid security issues, the districts of Morkmay and Khoune in Xieng Kouang Province were not considered for the village survey.

Data processing

The database and the data entry programme was designed in MS Access by the Illicit Crops Monitoring Programme and installed on the computers of the National Statistic Centre. 3 technicians from the National Statistic Centre and one person hired by UNDCP did the data entry. The data entry was supervised and checked by UNDCP technical staff and took one month (total of 4 men-months).

The filled-in database was sent to UNDCP-ICMP for standardisation of the analysis and analysis of the 2000 results.

Lao Annual Opium Poppy Survey 2000 Page 9 II. Survey findings

Provincial Poppy Cultivation

The estimated area cultivated with opium poppy was based on the field measurements made by the surveyors.

The following steps were used to estimate the area cultivated per province:

1) The village survey data were grouped at the provincial level; 2) The provincial household average plot size was calculated; 3) The provincial average number of households cultivating opium was calculated; 4) The provincial household average plot size (2) was multiplied by the provincial average number of households cultivating opium (3) to obtain the average village poppy area per province; 5) The average village poppy area per province (4) was multiplied by the number of villages cultivating opium poppy in the province obtained in the baseline.

At the country level, the survey estimates that there were 19,052 hectares of poppy under cultivation in the 1999-2000 season. This represents a reduction of 7,700 ha compared with the 1997-1998 season (26,800 ha). It is however comparable to the results of the previous surveys of 1992 (19,190 ha) and 1996 (21,600 ha).

The sharp decrease compared to the 1998 estimates is due to two factors:

1) a reduction in the number of villages reported growing opium by the district authorities (from 2,056 villages in 1998 to 1,940 villages in 2000) 2) a reduction in the average household field size, from 0.36 ha/household to 0.31 ha/household.

Lao Annual Opium Poppy Survey 2000 Page 10 The estimates per province are presented here below:

Area Estimates By Province Province Villages Fields Avg Avg HH Avg Villages Total Surveyed Measured Area Growing Area Growing Area per Opium per Opium (Ha) HH per Village village (Ha) UdomXay 63 245 0.52 30.0 15.56 261 4,061 Huapanh 61 435 0.33 27.8 9.25 424 3,921 Phongsaly 44 240 0.29 29.1 8.38 462 3,872 Luang Prabang 60 388 0.41 33.8 13.87 219 3,036 Luang Namtha 30 170 0.28 24.3 6.85 221 1,514 Xieng Khuang 21 181 0.31 24.5 7.64 180 1,376 Xayabouri 16 63 0.23 28.5 6.51 78 508 Bokeo 14 80 0.34 28.5 9.73 46 448 Xaisombun 5 22 0.31 28.5 8.95 25 224 Bolikhamsay 13 74 0.12 28.5 3.34 22 73 Vientiane 1 1 0.33 28.5 9.54 2 19 Country 328 1,899 1,940 19,052

The survey confirmed that opium poppy cultivation mainly took place in the 6 provinces targeted by the Opium Elimination Programme. The cultivation in these 6 provinces accounted for 93 % of the total area under cultivation.

Poppy Cultivation: Provincial Shares

Vientiane Xaisombun Bokeo 0.10% 1.18% 2.33%

Bolikhamsay Xayabouri 0.39% 2.67% UdomXay Xieng Khuang 21.32% 7.22%

Luang Namtha 7.95%

Luang Prabang 15.94% Huapanh 20.59%

Phongsaly 20.33%

Lao Annual Opium Poppy Survey 2000 Page 11 The following table shows the estimated area of poppy cultivation for each province for the present and past surveys:

Area Estimates Over the Years (in ha) 1992 1996 1998 2000

UdomXay 1,860 2,416 5,597 4,061 Huapanh 3,770 3,817 3,450 3,921 Phongsaly 2,840 3,558 5,778 3,872 Luang Prabang 3,510 3,550 2,786 3,036 Luang Namtha 1,730 2,197 3,593 1,514 Xieng Khuang 2,880 2,916 2,902 1,376 Xayabouri 400 754 1,014 508 Bokeo 620 785 428 448 Xaisombun n/a n/a n/a 224 Bolikhamsay 700 708 617 73 Vientiane 880* 900* 672* 19 19,190 21,601 26,837 19,052 * include Xaisombun

Area Estimates Over the Years

30,000

25,000

20,000

15,000

10,000

5,000

- 1992 1996 1998 2000

Lao Annual Opium Poppy Survey 2000 Page 12 Compared to the 1998 estimates, the most significant decreases were noticed in the provinces of Luang Namtha (- 2,079 ha or -57%) and in Phongsaly (-1,906 ha or 32%).

Some increases of low amplitude were observed in the provinces of Houaphan (+471 ha or +13%) and in Luang Prabang (+250 ha or +8%).

Provincial Area Estimates over the Years (in ha)

6,000

5,000

4,000

3,000

1992 2,000 1996 1998 2000 1,000

- 2000 1998 1996 1992 Huapanh UdomXay Phongsaly Bokeo Xayabouri Luang Prabang Luang Namtha Xieng Khuang Xaisombun Vientiane Bolikhamsay

Lao Annual Opium Poppy Survey 2000 Page 13 District Poppy Cultivation

The estimated area broken down by district is presented in Annex 8 and the map is in Annex 9.

Out of the 82 districts in the northern provinces, opium poppy cultivation was reported in 67 districts. Poppy cultivation is highly concentrated within a few districts. The top ten districts account for 43% of the total national area, while 80% of the cultivation takes place in the top 27 districts.

District Poppy Cultivation by District

Lao Annual Opium Poppy Survey 2000 Page 14 Compared to the 1998 estimates, a decrease in opium cultivation was observed in 56 districts. The highest decrease took place in Nonghed, where a UNDCP alternative development project is being implemented. The top 5 decreases in absolute number are presented below:

Top 5 District Decrease Province District decrease (ha) % Xieng Khuang Nonghed -1,088 -67% UdomXay Hoon -623 -49% Luang Prabang Nambak -523 -64% Huapanh Xiengkhor -481 -82%* UdomXay Beng -471 -54% * Since 1998, part of Xiengkhor district has been split into Add and Sopbao districts.

On the other hand, increases are noted in only 11 districts. The 5 highest increases in absolute number are reported below:

Top 5 District Increase Province District increase (ha) % Huapanh Xamneua 547 71% Phongsaly Khua 270 41% Huapanh Huameuang 251 55% Huapanh Xamtay 126 13% UdomXay Pakbeng 120 30%

Since the last survey, 2 districts were reported completely free of opium cultivation: Thoulakhom district in Vientiane Province and Bolikhan district in Bolikhamsay province.

For the first time, results were obtained from Phoun district in Xaysombun Special Region (63 ha) and in the Special Region of Bokeo Province (19 ha).

The district of Parklai in Xayabouri province is the only district where opium cultivation was recorded for the first time (13 ha).

In districts where alternative development projects are being implemented, a significant decrease is noticeable:

Trends in District With Alternative Development Projects Province District Change % (ha) Xieng Khuang Nonghed -1088 -67% UNDCP Luang Namtha Long -30 -3% UNDCP UdomXay Beng -470 -54% UNDCP Luang Namtha Sing -328 -47% GTZ Phongsaly Samphan -265 -26% Lao-US

Lao Annual Opium Poppy Survey 2000 Page 15 Location of Poppy Cultivation

The geographical co-ordinates of 5,479 villages (out of 6,404 villages) were provided by UXO-Lao. With the inclusion of these co-ordinates in the database, it is now possible to map at the village level the opium cultivation areas (see Annex 10).

This map, presented in Annex 10, confirms the concentration of opium cultivation areas in the northern part of the country, particularly in Phongsaly, in the western part of Luang Namtha, in the northern and southern parts of Oudomxay, in the eastern part of Houphan and the eastern part of Xieng Khouang.

Lao Annual Opium Poppy Survey 2000 Page 16 Yield

The yield estimate is based on a methodology developed by the US government and relies on the correlation between the capsule volume and the yield. This method provides an estimate of the potential yield with 15% moisture content. This potential yield may differ from the actual harvest, and does not include possible post-harvest losses.

The potential opium yield estimate depends on the capsule volumes and capsule density per square meter measured by the surveyors. These two measurements gave an average volume of opium capsules per square meter that rose from 93.58 cm3/m2 in 1998 to 221.51 cm3/m2 in 2000. Based on these values, the potential yield at the country level rose from 4.6 kg/ha in 1998 to 8.7 kg/ha in 2000.

To put the potential opium yield for Laos in a global context, the estimates for various countries is presented here below:

Potential Yield Estimates (kg/ha) Sources Countries 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 US Afghanistan 26.0 27.3 29.7 29.2 30.1 US Thailand 8.0 14.2 13.8 15.1 11.8 7.1 6.7 US Myanmar 13.8 15.1 15.7 15.2 13.4 12.1 9.9 US Laos 6.9 4.5 9.1 7.9 7.4 5.3 6.4 9.0 LCDC-DCP Laos 6.3 6.4 4.6 8.7

The 1998 exceptional low yield, recorded by both the Lao-UNDCP survey and by the US survey team, was attributed to the lasting drought that affected the region: On the 1998 drought that hit Southeast Asia:

“ Worldwide potential illicit opium production dropped off significantly in 1998 ... as opium yields in Southeast Asia were slashed by a regional drought.”

Source: US report on major coca and opium producing nations, 1998.

Contrary to most licit crops, opium yield is prone to wide annual variations because most opium fields, located in remote and hilly areas, do not benefit from good management practices and daily care. In addition, the lack of irrigation and the absence of improved opium varieties contribute to put the annual opium yield more at the mercy of climatic variations than food crops.

Lao Annual Opium Poppy Survey 2000 Page 17 The 2000 yield estimate returned to yield range observed in 1992 and 1996, with important provincial variations.

1992 1996 19983 2000 Luang Prabang 6.4 4.8 4.6 11.9 OudomXay 6.6 8.1 4.6 9.0 Huapanh 6.0 4.5 4.6 8.6 Phongsaly 6.7 7.7 4.6 8.2 Luang Namtha 6.6 7.7 4.6 8.1 Sayabouri 6.3 9.2 4.6 8.0 Xaysombun 6.3 Bokeo 7.1 8.5 4.6 6.2 Xieng Khuang 7.0 5.3 4.6 6.0 Bolikhamsay 6.9 8.2 4.6 2.9 Vientiane 8.0* 8.2* 4.6* 8.74 6.6 6.4 4.6 8.7 * including Xaisombun

For the first time in 2000 enough field observations were gathered to provide district yield estimates. The highest yield was observed in Pak Ou district (Luang Prabang) at 14.14 kg/ha, whereas Viengthong district in Bolikamsay showed the lowest yield at 2.63 kg/ha. In general the yields tended to increase from south to north.

The district estimates are in Annex 8 and the 5 highest district yields are presented here below:

Top 5 District Yields Province District Yield (kg/ha)

Luang Prabang Park Ou 14.14 Huapanh Add 14.07 Luang Prabang Phoukhoune 13.60 Luang Prabang Pak Xeng 13.04 Luang Prabang Viengkham 12.48

3 In 1998, the national yield estimate of 4.6 kg/ha was used for all the provinces because of the limited number of observations available. 4 The national yield was applied for Vientiane province because no field data were collected.

Lao Annual Opium Poppy Survey 2000 Page 18 Production

The production is the multiplication of the area under opium cultivation by the potential yield.

The following table shows the estimated opium production for each province for the present and past surveys:

Production Estimates over the Years (in kilo) 1992 1996 1998 2000 Udom Xai 12,300 19,600 25,747 36,536 Luang Prabang 22,400 17,200 12,816 36,007 Huaphan 22,500 17,300 15,870 33,705 Phongsali 19,000 27,500 26,580 31,824 Luang Namtha 11,500 16,900 16,526 12,211 Xieng Khuaong 20,300 15,600 13,350 8,205 Xayabouri 2,500 6,900 4,666 4,068 Bokeo 4,400 6,700 1,969 2,761 Xaysomboun n/a n/a n/a 1,400 Bolikhamxai 4,800 5,800 2,838 213 Vientiane 7,000* 6,900* 3,091* 167 126,700 140,400 123,453 167,097 * including Xaisombun

180,000

160,000

140,000

120,000

100,000

80,000

60,000

40,000

20,000

0 1992 1996 1998 2000

Lao Annual Opium Poppy Survey 2000 Page 19 Comparison of the 1992, 1996, 1998 and 2000 results

Province Villages Growing Opium Cultivation in Ha Potential Yield (kg/Ha) Opium Production in Kg Opium 1992 1996 1998 2000 1992 1996 1998 2000 1992 1996 1998 2000 1992 1996 1998 2000 OudomXay 369 n/a 234 261 1,860 2,416 5,597 4,061 6.6 8.1 4.6 9.0 12,300 19,600 25,747 36,536 Huapanh 405 n/a 312 424 3,770 3,816 3,450 3,921 6.0 4.5 4.6 8.6 22,500 17,300 15,870 33,705 Phongsaly 406 n/a 513 462 2,840 3,558 5,778 3,872 6.7 7.7 4.6 8.2 19,000 27,500 26,580 31,824 Luang Prabang 252 n/a 236 219 3,510 3,550 2,786 3,036 6.4 4.8 4.6 11.9 22,400 17,200 12,816 36,007 Luang Namtha 268 n/a 334 221 1,730 2,197 3,593 1,514 6.6 7.7 4.6 8.1 11,500 16,900 16,526 12,211 Xieng Khuang 315 n/a 184 180 2,880 2,916 2,902 1,376 7.0 5.3 4.6 6.0 20,300 15,600 13,350 8,205 Sayabouri 33 n/a 72 78 400 754 1,014 508 6.3 9.2 4.6 8.0 2,500 6,900 4,666 4,068 Bokeo 98 n/a 50 46 620 785 428 448 7.1 8.5 4.6 6.2 4,400 6,700 1,969 2,761 Xaisombun n/a n/a n/a 25 n/a n/a n/a 224 n/a n/a n/a 6.3 n/a n/a n/a 1,400 Bolikhamsay 85 n/a 61 22 700 708 617 73 6.9 8.2 4.6 2.9 4,800 5,800 2,838 213 Vientiane 84* n/a 60* 2 880* 900* 672* 20 8.0* 8.2* 4.6* 8.7 7,000* 6,900* 3,091* 167 Country 2,315 2,056 1,940 19,190 21,600 26,837 19,053 6.6 6.4 4.6 8.7 126,700 140,400 123,453 167,097 *Including Xaysombun Opium Prices

The farm gates prices for opium varies by location and time. Typically, the prices are lower just after the harvest but gradually increase as the opium gets drier and the stock available get smaller. The farmers don’t sell their opium all at once after the harvest, nor is all of it sold to traders. Most farmers keep part of the harvest for their own consumption or for sale to other people either in the same village or to nearby villages for local consumption.

During the 2000 survey, the village headman and the farmers provided information on the farm gate prices at four dates: price in March 99 corresponds to the end of the 1999 harvesting season, price in November 99 corresponds to sowing time for the 2000 season, price in February 2000 corresponds to the time of the survey, while the last one is the expected price for the 2000 harvest.

The average prices for the 2000 opium season showed large variation between provinces. The lowest average price was observed in Phongsaly (309,000 KIP/kg) while it was ten times more in Bolikhamsay (3,611,000 KIP/kg).

Two groups of provinces could however been distinguished5: Phongsaly, Udomxay and Luang Prabang with relatively low prices, while Bokeo, Huapanh, Xieng Khouang and Bolikhamsay with relatively higher prices.

At the country level, there was little change between the average prices for the 1999 harvest (639,000 KIP/kg) and the average expected price for the 2000 harvest (695,000 KIP/kg).

In dollar-equivalent, the average opium farmgate price for the 2000 season was estimated at 92 USD/kg (at the April 00 exchange rate of 7,520 KIP for one dollar). The price in dollar for the 1999 harvest appeared much higher (145 USD/kg) because of the depreciation of the KIP to the dollar between March 99 and November 99.

5 Not enough data were collected for the provinces of Luang Namtha, Xayabouri and Xaisombun.

Lao Annual Opium Poppy Survey 2000 Page 21 Addiction

Data on opium addiction, with a breakdown by gender and age, were collected during the interview of the village headman. The addicts themselves were not interviewed during the 2000 survey and no data on their level of consumption were collected.

Data on addiction were collected in opium growing and in non-opium growing villages. The addiction rate in the opium growing villages was about 3.24%* of the entire population in these villages, whereas in non-opium growing villages, it was at about 2.55%*.

For the 11 northern provinces, the number of addicts was estimated at 62,895 persons. This made 2.71% or the total population, or 4.84% of the population over 15 years old.

The national opium addiction rate for the population over 15 years old was estimated at 2.26%.

Addiction by Province

At the provincial level, the province of Luang Prabang ranked first in number of addicts but the highest addiction rate was observed in Phongsaly.

Province Pop Addicts Addicts In Estimated Addiction Estimate in Opium Non Opium Total Rate* 2000 Growing Growing Addicts Villages Villages Phongsaly 153,370 6,798 959 7,757 5.06%* Luang Namtha 139,470 3,939 1,790 5,729 4.11%* UdomXay 232,512 2,986 3,940 6,927 2.98%* Luang Prabang 376,071 2,590 7,484 10,075 2.68%* Bokeo 112,119 451 2,511 2,962 2.64%* Bolikhamsay 200,048 146 4,893 5,038 2.52%* Huapanh 234,345 4,638 1,216 5,854 2.50%* Xieng Khuang 205,175 1,309 3,616 4,924 2.40%* Xayabouri 328,868 509 7,299 7,808 2.37%* Xaisombun 38,028 123 775 898 2.36%* Vientiane 302,698 9 4,914 4,923 1.63%* 2,322,705 23,498 39,397 62,895 2.71%*

* These rates are for the entire population, from 0 to 105 years old.

Lao Annual Opium Poppy Survey 2000 Page 22 Addiction by District

Important variations were noted between the district addiction rates. The 5 districts showing the highest addiction rate against the total population are presented here below:

Top 5 district addiction rate Province District Pop Addicts Addicts Estimated Addiction Estimate in In Non Total rate* 2000 Opium Opium Addicts Growing Growing Phongsaly Nhot Ou 25,024 1,923 169 2,092 8.36%* Huapanh Huameuang 24,734 1,348 35 1,383 5.59%* Luang Namtha Sing 25,141 1,002 335 1,337 5.32%* Phongsaly Khua 27,166 1,346 68 1,414 5.21%* Phongsaly May 22,118 779 229 1,008 4.56%*

Addiction by gender

Out of the 3,654 addicts counted during the survey, 2,874 were men (or 78%) and 780 were women (or 22%). The 1998 survey indicated comparable ratio with 79% for men and 21% for women. A breakdown of the survey data by gender and age is presented on the next page.

* These rates are for the entire population, from 0 to 100 years old.

Lao Annual Opium Poppy Survey 2000 Page 23 Addiction by age

The mean age calculated for men opium addicts was 49.2 years old (median 48 years old) and for women the mean age was 52.6 years old (median 50 years old). The 1998 survey findings indicated a mean age of 52 years old for men addicts and 56 years old for women addicts.

The frequency distribution by age classes, showed that the highest number of addicts was to be found among people between 40 and 50 years old, and this for both men and women.

Age Men relative (relative Women relative Total relative frequency frequency frequency frequency men men – women total 1998) 0-10 0 0.00% 0.3% 0 0.00% 0 0.00% 10-20 28 0.97% 5.2% 8 1.03% 36 0.99% 20-30 305 10.61% 15.4% 44 5.64% 349 9.55% 30-40 651 22.65% 20.9% 166 21.28% 817 22.36% 40-50 705 24.53% 22.7% 177 22.69% 882 24.14% 50-60 552 19.21% 20.2% 161 20.64% 713 19.51% 60-70 441 15.34% 10.2% 157 20.13% 598 16.37% 70-80 157 5.46% 3.3% 56 7.18% 213 5.83% 80-90 29 1.01% 0.9% 10 1.28% 39 1.07% 90-100 6 0.21% 0.4% 1 0.13% 7 0.19% n 2,874 780 3,654

30.00%

25.00%

20.00%

15.00%

10.00% Relative frequency of Addiction Age

5.00%

0.00% 0-10 10-20 20-30 30-40 40-50 50-60 60-70 70-80 80-90 90-100 Age

Lao Annual Opium Poppy Survey 2000 Page 24 Field Damage

Farmers are asked whether there had been any damage to their crop this season. At the country level, about 20% of the respondents claimed their crop had been damaged. The provincial rates vary widely, with the highest rate in Bolikhamsay (90%), whereas in Xaybouri province, no respondent reported any damage.

Has the field been damaged? (Yes / No) n Yes No % Yes 02 Phongsaly 41 5 36 12% 03 Luang Namtha 18 3 15 17% 04 UdomXay 184 45 139 24% 05 Bokeo 16 14 2 88% 06 Luang Prabang 375 40 335 11% 07 Huapanh 08 Xayabouri 57 0 57 0% 09 Xieng Khuang 49 12 37 24% 10 Vientiane 11 Bolikhamsay 31 28 3 90% 18 Xaisombun 3 1 2 33% Country 774 148 626 19%

No farmer reported using fertilizer on their opium poppy fields.

Lao Annual Opium Poppy Survey 2000 Page 25 Annexes:

Annex 1 :The Baseline questionnaire.

(2 pages)

Lao Annual Opium Poppy Survey 2000 Page 26 Lao National Opium Survey 1999-2000 BASELINE FORM (1) Province Name: (2) District Name: Total Villages: 23 Province Name: Bokeo District Name: Meung Province Code: 05 District Code: 03 Village Village Name Village Main Ethnic Group Number of Number of Is Opium Approximate Nr of Remarks Code (in Lao) Type Inhabitants Families Cultivated in families cultivating the Village? opium Loum/Theung/Soung/? Number Number Yes / No / ? Number / ? 1 0503001 oEg,u' ! Rural 2 0503002 3rolts;jk' Rural 3 0503004 3ro9tg]uo Rural 4 0503005 sh;pmkf Rural 5 0503008 -P'fk; Rural 6 0503009 sovocs^, Rural 7 0503011 x5'9v,cl' Rural 8 0503012 r6g]qk Rural 9 0503014 rtpks];' Rural 10 0503015 sh;pdk' Rural 11 0503016 8+c] Rural 12 0503017 zk'k, Rural 13 0503018 9jk;k Rural 14 0503019 9v,c9h' Rural 15 0503022 fvo,6o Rural 16 0503023 zkfe Rural 17 0503025 zk0k; Rural 18 0503026 sh;plko Rural 19 0503030 x5j'Ihvo Rural

22/01/01 Annex01_Baseline_form.xls, 0503 Lao National Opium Survey 1999-2000 BASELINE FORM (1) Province Name: (2) District Name: Total Villages: 23 Province Name: Bokeo District Name: Meung Province Code: 05 District Code: 03 Village Village Name Village Main Ethnic Group Number of Number of Is Opium Approximate Nr of Remarks Code (in Lao) Type Inhabitants Families Cultivated in families cultivating the Village? opium Loum/Theung/Soung/? Number Number Yes / No / ? Number / ? 20 0503034 sq;oE7k Rural 21 0503038 x5j'zk Rural 22 0503039 9jkd+ Rural 23 0503044 oEg,y' @ Rural

22/01/01 Annex01_Baseline_form.xls, 0503 Annex 2 Number of villages surveyed by district.

(2 pages)

Lao Annual Opium Poppy Survey 2000 Page 27 LAO NATIONAL OPIUM SURVEY 1999-2000

Baseline Inventory Village Survey Villages Villages Villages Reported Villages Villages Reported Villages Total Reported Non Reported Reported Non Reported P Province D District Villages Growing Growing Unknown Growing Growing Unknown 02 Phongsaly 01 Phongsaly 86 57 29 6 1 02 Phongsaly 02 May 91 54 37 6 1 02 Phongsaly 03 Khua 122 59 6 57 9 1 02 Phongsaly 04 Samphanh 92 88 4 6 02 Phongsaly 05 Boon Neua 67 40 26 1 5 02 Phongsaly 06 Nhot Ou 98 72 26 7 1 02 Phongsaly 07 Boontai 57 40 16 1 4 1 613 410 144 59 43 4 1 03 Luang Namtha 01 Namtha 74 28 33 13 6 03 Luang Namtha 02 Sing 109 47 53 9 8 1 03 Luang Namtha 03 Long 126 101 15 10 9 1 03 Luang Namtha 04 Viengphoukha 55 18 35 2 5 2 03 Luang Namtha 05 Nalae 87 7 80 451 201 216 34 28 4 0 04 UdomXay 01 Xay 149 46 102 1 12 2 04 UdomXay 02 La 65 38 27 4 1 04 UdomXay 03 Namor 105 46 55 4 6 2 04 UdomXay 04 Nga 100 23 77 6 3 04 UdomXay 05 Beng 97 23 74 15 3 04 UdomXay 06 Hoon 172 38 126 8 11 4 04 UdomXay 07 Pakbeng 82 33 48 1 6 1 770 247 509 14 60 16 0 05 Bokeo 01 Huoixai 136 7 118 11 2 1 05 Bokeo 02 Tonpheung 59 5 54 2 1 05 Bokeo 03 Meung 23 1 22 1 05 Bokeo 04 Pha Oudom 111 13 98 3 2 05 Bokeo 05 Paktha 48 13 32 3 3 1 05 Bokeo 06 Special Region 10 2 8 387 41 332 14 11 5 0 06 Luang Prabang 01 Luang Prabang 125 9 111 5 2 1 06 Luang Prabang 02 Xieng Ngeun 105 21 84 7 1 06 Luang Prabang 03 Nan 68 5 44 19 2 06 Luang Prabang 04 Park Ou 73 9 64 3 06 Luang Prabang 05 Nambak 160 21 136 3 11 2 06 Luang Prabang 06 Ngoi 158 29 128 1 10 4 06 Luang Prabang 07 Pak Xeng 113 10 103 3 2 06 Luang Prabang 08 Phonxay 92 19 71 2 6 1 06 Luang Prabang 09 Chomphet 82 16 66 3 2 06 Luang Prabang 10 Viengkham 147 48 98 1 10 2 06 Luang Prabang 11 Phoukhoune 49 26 22 1 3 1 1,172 213 927 32 60 16 0 07 Huapanh 01 Xamneua 151 141 8 2 10 2 07 Huapanh 02 Xiengkhor 66 11 55 4 1 07 Huapanh 03 Viengthong 84 17 57 10 4 6 07 Huapanh 04 Viengxay 130 17 113 9 1 07 Huapanh 05 Huameuang 88 48 40 6 1 07 Huapanh 06 Xamtay 189 110 72 7 14 1 07 Huapanh 07 Sopbao 76 16 60 5 1 07 Huapanh 08 Add 75 27 46 2 5 1 859 387 451 21 57 14 0

22/01/01 Annex02_Baseline_Report_&_Villages_Surveyed.xls, Villages By District 1/2 LAO NATIONAL OPIUM SURVEY 1999-2000

Baseline Inventory Village Survey Villages Villages Villages Reported Villages Villages Reported Villages Total Reported Non Reported Reported Non Reported P Province D District Villages Growing Growing Unknown Growing Growing Unknown 08 Xayabouri 01 Xayabury 122 19 94 9 5 1 08 Xayabouri 02 Khop 38 11 27 1 1 08 Xayabouri 03 Hongsa 62 13 48 1 1 1 08 Xayabouri 04 Ngeun 29 10 19 2 08 Xayabouri 05 Xienghone 66 15 51 2 1 08 Xayabouri 06 Phiang 61 4 56 1 2 08 Xayabouri 07 Parklai 77 2 75 08 Xayabouri 08 Kenethao 58 58 08 Xayabouri 09 Botene 32 32 08 Xayabouri 10 Thongmyxay 16 16 561 74 476 11 13 4 0 09 Xieng Khuang 01 Pek 96 11 84 1 1 1 09 Xieng Khuang 02 Kham 111 26 73 12 6 2 09 Xieng Khuang 03 Nonghed 111 69 41 1 9 1 09 Xieng Khuang 04 Khoune 89 41 48 09 Xieng Khuang 05 Morkmay 28 14 9 5 09 Xieng Khuang 06 Phookood 37 8 26 3 1 1 09 Xieng Khuang 07 Phaxay 39 2 36 1 1 511 171 317 23 18 5 0 10 Vientiane 01 Phonhong 81 81 1 10 Vientiane 02 Thoulakhom 72 72 1 10 Vientiane 03 Keo Oudom 32 31 1 10 Vientiane 04 Kasy 57 1 55 1 1 10 Vientiane 05 Vangvieng 74 1 71 2 1 10 Vientiane 06 Feuang 59 58 1 10 Vientiane 07 Xanakharm 49 49 10 Vientiane 08 Mad 41 41 10 Vientiane 09 Hinhurp 18 18 10 Vientiane 10 Viengkham 48 48 531 2 524 5 2 2 0 11 Bolikhamsay 01 Pakxanh 76 76 1 11 Bolikhamsay 02 Thaphabath 31 31 11 Bolikhamsay 03 Pakkading 57 51 6 11 Bolikhamsay 04 Bolikhanh 50 48 2 1 11 Bolikhamsay 05 Khamkheuth 163 9 119 35 7 8 3 11 Bolikhamsay 06 Viengthong 43 4 26 13 3 420 13 351 56 10 9 4 18 Xaisombun 01 Saysomboun 26 8 17 1 2 18 Xaisombun 02 Thathom 11 5 3 3 1 18 Xaisombun 03 Hom 37 3 33 1 2 18 Xaisombun 04 Longxan 29 29 18 Xaisombun 05 Phoun 26 15 11 129 16 97 16 5 0 0

TOTAL 82 6,404 1,775 4,344 285 307 79 5

22/01/01 Annex02_Baseline_Report_&_Villages_Surveyed.xls, Villages By District 2/2 Annex 3 The village survey questionnaires.

(7 pages)

Lao Annual Opium Poppy Survey 2000 Page 28 Lao National Opium Survey 1999-2000 SURVEY FORM VILLAGE HEADMAN & VILLAGE DEVELOPMENT COMMITTEE From the Surveyor: Position of the village 1) Surveyor ID: 3) GPS Number: 2) Date: / / 2000 4) Waypoint : 5) Latitude: N 6) Longitude: E 7) Altitude: mt 8) PDOB:

9) Province Name: Province Code: 10) District Name: District Code: 11) Village Name: Village Code:

From Village Development Committee: 12) Ethnic Group: Ethnic Code: 13) Number of inhabitants: 14) Number of households:

15) How long does it take to walk from your village to the nearest road or river (whichever the nearest) where you can get on board a car or a bus (or, for river, a boat): Hours Minutes

16) How many households in the village cultivate opium poppy? Households

17) How long does it take to walk from the village to the nearest opium poppy field? Hours Minutes

18) How long does it take to walk from the village to the farthest opium poppy field? Hours Minutes

What was the price the farmers got from selling raw opium, (For the surveyor: Please, let the interviewee answers in his own unit. Once the price is known, convert the local unit into kilogram by using the handheld balance.) Kip Local Unit Kg 19) after last year harvest, around March 99? 20) at the time of sowing opium, around November 99?

21) What is the price today? 22) What is the expected price for this harvest?

23) Who buys the raw opium? Lao Citizens Foreigners

Annex03_a_VDC_form.doc 1/2 Lao National Opium Survey 1999-2000 SURVEY FORM VILLAGE HEADMAN & VILLAGE DEVELOPMENT COMMITTEE

24) Write down the name, gender and age of the people in the village who use opium every day: (The name of the person is not important for the survey. It should just help the interviewee to correctly remember all the persons who use opium every day. What is important for the survey is the total number of people using opium every day in the village and the information on gender and age for every one of them).

# Name Gender Age # Name Gender Age 1. 31. 2. 32. 3. 33. 4. 34. 5. 35. 6. 36. 7. 37. 8. 38. 9. 39. 10. 40. 11. 41. 12. 42. 13. 43. 14. 44. 15. 45. 16. 46. 17. 47. 18. 48. 19. 49. 20. 50. 21. 51. 22. 52. 23. 53. 24. 54. 25. 55. 26. 56. 27. 57. 28. 58. 29. 59. 30. 60.

Annex03_a_VDC_form.doc 2/2 Lao National Opium Survey 1999-2000 SURVEY FORM FARMER

From the surveyor 1) Surveyor ID: 2) Date: / / 2000

3) Province code: 4) District code: 5) Village code:

6) Farmer number:

Questions to the Opium Growing Farmer 7) How many opium poppy fields do you cultivate? (For the surveyor: Please, fill one “field measurement form” for every field mentioned by the farmer.)

8) For how many years have you been cultivating opium? years

9) What is the main reason why your household begun growing opium? (Give only one reason). For cash. For medical reason. To offset food shortage. For religious/social reasons. Other: (For the surveyor: If the answer is “Other”, please, write the reason in the space left)

10) What would be your preferred alternative to growing opium? (Give only one preferred alternative): Animal husbandry. Other cash crop. Small business. Other: (For the surveyor: If the answer is “Other”, please, write the preferred alternative in the space left)

What was the price the farmers got from selling raw opium, (For the surveyor: Please, let the interviewee answers in his own unit. Once the price is known, convert the local unit into kilogram by using the handheld balance.) Kip Local Unit Kg 11) after last year harvest, around March 99? 12) at the time of sowing opium, around November 99?

13) What is the price today? 14) What is the expected price for this harvest?

15) Who buys your raw opium? Lao Citizens Foreigners

Annex03_b_farmer_form.doc 1/1 Lao National Opium Survey 1999-2000 SURVEY FORM FIELD MEASUREMENT

From the surveyor: 1) Surveyor ID: 6) Farmer Number: 2) Date: 7) Field Number: Position of the Opium Field 3) Province Code: 8) GPS Number: 4) District Code: 9) Waypoint: 5) Village Code: 10) Latitude N 11) Longitude E 12) Elevation Mt 13) PDOB:

14) Has the farmer started to harvest opium on this field? Yes No For the surveyor: If “Yes”, you must survey the capsules on this field (see page 3). 15) Is the field irrigated? Yes No

16) Is there other crop than poppy in the field? Yes No 17) If “Yes”, what is the main other crop?

18) What is the walking time from the village to the field? Hours Minutes Questions to the farmer on the field to be surveyed 19) This season, which type of opium poppy did you sow? Early type (Ya fin do) Late type (Ya fin bpi)

20) For how many years has opium poppy been planted on this field? Years

21) This season, what was the crop just before opium poppy on this field? 22) What will be the crop following opium poppy on this field?

23) Did you use fertiliser/manure on this opium poppy field? Yes No

24) Has this opium poppy field suffered any damage (diseases, pests, drought)? Yes No 25) If “Yes”, by how much will the expected harvest be reduced? %

26) How many times do you lance each mature capsule? 27) What is your estimate for the opium production on this field? For the surveyor: Please, let the interviewee answers in his own unit. Once you know the local unit, convert it into kilogram by using the handheld balance. Quantity Local unit Kg for one local unit

28) What is your estimate for the area of this field? For the surveyor: Please, let the interviewee answers in his own unit. Once you know the local unit, convert it into square meter by using a blank “field measurement form”. Quantity Local unit Square meters for one local unit

Annex03_c_field_measurement_form.doc 1/3 Lao National Opium Survey 1999-2000 SURVEY FORM FIELD MEASUREMENT

Approximate field shape

Measurements

Line Angle Distance Line Angle Distance 1. 14. 2. 15. 3. 16. 4. 17. 5. 18. 6. 19. 7. 20. 8. 21. 9. 22. 10. 23. 11. 24. 12. 25. 13. 26.

Error Area ha Slope Actual Area ha

2/3 Lao National Opium Survey 1999-2000 SURVEY FORM FIELD MEASUREMENT For the surveyor: * Please, only fill this form for mature opium fields (harvest already started). * You may fill in the form for only 3 plots per field, but you must collect data for a minimum of 30 plots per village. Please try to survey as many fields as you can. * For “Flower buds” and “Immature Capsules”, please only count those you think will reach maturity. Ask the assistance of the farmer. Growth Stage Plot 1 Plot 2 Plot 3 Plot 4 Plot 5 Plot 6 Plot 7 Plot 8 Flower buds Immature Caps. Mature Caps. Mature Caps. D H D H D H D H D H D H D H D H 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35

For the surveyor: If you are not able to fill in this form for a mature field, please explain the reason:

3/3 Annex 4 The field measurement method.

(6 pages)

Lao Annual Opium Poppy Survey 2000 Page 29 The field measurement method

The method described as been set up by the Statistics Division of FAO.

A traditional method of measurement or areas in agricultural statistics consists of identifying the boundaries of a field to be measured by use of sight poles and taking compass bearings and measuring the length of each side of a so obtained polygon.

The data obtained are then computed on a programmed pocket calculator. Using calculators enable to avoid the possible errors in the more classical method of sketching the field. Errors in plotting the sketch, errors in measuring the areas form he sketch and in particular, errors in applying the scale factor are eliminated with the use of the calculator.

The use of the calculators permits the application of methods of distributing the closure error to all vertices, which is superior to the hand method of handling the closure error. The most important advantage of the calculator is the possibility to use it directly in the field when measurement are made as the closure error can be evaluated directly on the spot and is case of too large an error the measurement can be repeated.

Calculation of the area of a polygon

Let a polygon with n sides be defined by

ai, , "i i= 1, 2,…………, n where ai, is the length of the side i and "i is the angle this side forms with North measured in clockwise direction.

Denote with a i the vector which represents the side i in a two dimensional space XOY in which Y-axis coincides with the North.

The horizontal and vertical projections of the vector a i (see figure 1) are respectively:

ai Sin "i

ai Cos "i Figure 1

Define vectors i

(1) R i =3 aj i= 1,2, ...... , n

j=1

Their horizontal and vertical projections will be respectively: i

(2) Xi = 3 aj Sin "j j=1

i (3) Yi = 3 aj Cos "j j=1 If the polygon is closed, then:

Figure 2

The area of a triangle formed by two vectors which start from the same point can be calculated as a function of their horizontal and vertical projections.

Thus, the area of the triangle between vectors R1 and R2 (see figure 2) is given by:

A1 = ½ (X2 Y1 – X1 Y2)

It should be noted that this area will have a positive value if the vector R1 precedes the vector R2 (looking clockwise), otherwise it will be negative.

The area of the whole polygon calculated as a sum of areas of triangles, each formed by the two consecutive vector Ri, will be:

n-2

A = ½ 3 (Xi+1 Yi – Xi Yi+1) i=1 where Xi and Yi are given by (2) and (3). Closure error and corrected area of a polygon

In practice the polygon defined by the data which are collected in the field will never close. In this case

Rn … 0

The length of the vector Rn

2 2 Rn = Xn + Yn can be used as a measure of error. The normal practice is, however, to express the closure error as percent of the perimeter of the polygon:

n 3 C = (Rn / a ) x 100 i=1

If the closure error is below a certain value, say 2% or 3%, the error may be considered as acceptable. The polygon can be closed in different ways and the area of a so closed polygon calculated. Closing the polygon: Closure from the mid-point

Figure 3

The closed polygon OBCDO is obtained by connecting the mid-point 0 between end points A and A1 with the ends of the first and the last side of the open polygon, that is with points B and D.

Define new vectors Ri’:

Ri’ = Ri - ½ Rn i= 1,2, ...... , n-1 with projections

(4) Xi’ = Xi – ½ Xn

(5) Yi’ = Yi – ½ Yn

Then, the area of the closed polygon will be:

n-2

A = ½ 3 (X’i+1 Y’i – X’i Y’i+1)

i=1 or after substituting X’i and Y’i from (4) and (5) n-2

A = ½ 3 (Xi+1 Yi–Xi Yi+1) + (Yn / 4)(X1-Xn-1) – (Xn / 4)(Y1-Yn-1) i=1

where Xi and Yi are defined by (2) and (3). Annex 5 The yield estimate.

The methodology used to determine the yield was developed by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) after studying fields in Myanmar and Thailand. This methodology is based on the correlation between the poppy capsule volume and yield per square meter. It provides a yield estimate with a 15% moisture content.

The survey team measures at least 6 fields per village. All field are measured, but only those where the harvest has already started are considered for capsule measurement.

The survey team select a random point in the field from which to draw a transect line connecting the furthest borders of the poppy field. They use a meter square collapsible frame to measure 3 square plots6 along the transect-line. A random table was used to determine the location of the plots along the transect.

For each plots, the surveyors record the number of flowers, the number of immature capsules and the number of mature capsules. The diameter and height of all mature capsules are then measured with a caliper.

Of the flowers and the immature capsules, only 77% are considered reaching maturity.

The formula to estimate the yield from the capsule volume is:

Yield = 0.0365 * CVOL + 2.02 where CVOL is the accumulated capsules volume of the sample.

6 8 plots were taken during the 197-1998 survey

Lao Annual Opium Poppy Survey 2000 Page 30 Annex 6 List of Supervisors.

Name From Province supervised Mr. Vongtavanh Ministry of Health Luangnamtha (Team Leader) Mr. Bounleuane Ministry of Health Phongsaly Mr. Saykhame Ministry of Health Bokeo Mr. Yavang National Statistic Center Xiengkhouang Mr. Soulinho Ministry of Health Xiengkhouang Mr. Sounthala National Statistic Center Houaphanh Mr. Phouvong National Statistic Center Oudomxay Mr. Bounsy Ministry of Interior (CNO) Bolikhamxay Mr. Khamla Ministry of Interior (CNO) Xaisomboune Xayabouly Mr. Mixaikone Ministry of Education Luangphrabang Ms. Khamla Ministry of Education Luangphrabang

Lao Annual Opium Poppy Survey 2000 Page 31 Annex 7 Training Schedule.

Wednesday 5 January 2000

08.00 – 08.30 Welcome Address

08.30 – 10.00 Objectives of the survey. General methodology to obtain the national estimate. General organization of the survey (Provincial and district team). The role of central level supervisors 10.00 – 11.00 Presentation of : - the baseline form - the village headman form - the farmer form - the field measurement form 11.00 – 12.00 Administrative arrangements and planning by province. (Dr Vongtavanh)

13.00 – 15.00 Theory on field area measurement and Capsules measurement. 15.00 – 16.00 Exercise of field area measurement and Capsules measurement. (National Statistics and Dr Vongtavanh)

Thursday 6 January 2000

8.00 – 10.00 Theory on GPS 10.00 – 12.00 Exercise on GPS (Mr Rorie Wurst, Terran GIS)

13.00 – 14.30 Theory on random selection of villages to survey Theory on random selection of fields to survey 14.30 – 16.00 Exercise on random selection of villages and fields. (Mr Denis Destrebecq, UNDCP)

Friday 7 January 2000 07.00 – 09.00 Travel to Nam Ngum 09.00 – 10.30 Exercise on GPS 10.30 – 12.00 Exercise on field measurement

13.00 – 16.00 Testing interview technique in one village 16.00 – 17.00 Wrap up and question time

Lao Annual Opium Poppy Survey 2000 Page 32 Saturday 8 January 2000 08.00 – 12.00 Testing interview technique in another village

13.00 – 14.00 Final wrap up and question time 15.00 – 17.00 Travel back to Vientiane

Monday 10 January 2000 08.00 – 10.00 Summary of important points. Questions - Answers 10.00 – 12.00 Review with each supervisor the planning by province

13.00 – 16.00 Distribution of survey equipment (Mr Thavisack, UNDCP) Distribution of air ticket Distribution of funds (LCDC)

Lao Annual Opium Poppy Survey 2000 Page 33 Annex 8 Estimation by District.

(2 pages)

Lao Annual Opium Poppy Survey 2000 Page 34 Lao Opium Survey 2000 Estimation by District

Village Growing Applied Estimated Province District 2000 Area 2000 Yield Production Phongsaly Phongsaly 58 486 8.22 3,995 Phongsaly May 54 453 8.22 3,720 Phongsaly Khua 110 922 8.89 8,193 Phongsaly Samphanh 88 737 7.71 5,686 Phongsaly Boon Neua 40 335 8.22 2,755 Phongsaly Nhot Ou 72 603 9.62 5,804 Phongsaly Boontai 40 335 4.98 1,671 462 3,872 8.22 31,824 Luang NamthaNamtha 33 226 7.04 1,591 Luang NamthaSing 52 356 7.36 2,624 Luang NamthaLong 109 747 8.86 6,614 Luang NamthaViengphoukha 20 137 7.26 995 Luang NamthaNalae 7 48 8.06 387 221 1,514 8.07 12,211 UdomXay Xay 52 809 9.68 7,835 UdomXay La 38 591 6.67 3,943 UdomXay Namor 48 747 8.58 6,406 UdomXay Nga 24 373 10.58 3,952 UdomXay Beng 25 389 10.13 3,939 UdomXay Hoon 41 638 9.16 5,841 UdomXay Pakbeng 33 513 9.00 4,619 261 4,061 9.00 36,536 Bokeo Huoixai 7 68 6.17 420 Bokeo Tonpheung 5 49 7.41 361 Bokeo Meung 1 10 7.90 77 Bokeo Pha Oudom 14 136 5.83 794 Bokeo Paktha 17 165 5.98 988 Bokeo Special Region 2 19 6.17 120 46 448 6.16 2,761 Luang PrabangLuang Prabang 9 125 11.86 1,480 Luang PrabangXieng Ngeun 21 291 12.42 3,615 Luang PrabangNan 8 111 11.86 1,315 Luang PrabangPark Ou 9 125 14.14 1,764 Luang PrabangNambak 21 291 11.63 3,385 Luang PrabangNgoi 31 430 8.18 3,516 Luang PrabangPak Xeng 10 139 13.04 1,808 Luang PrabangPhonxay 19 263 11.86 3,124 Luang PrabangChomphet 17 236 11.86 2,795 Luang PrabangViengkham 48 666 12.48 8,303 Luang PrabangPhoukhoune 26 360 13.60 4,902 219 3,036 11.86 36,007 Huapanh Xamneua 142 1,313 8.44 11,086 Huapanh Xiengkhor 11 102 7.17 730 Huapanh Viengthong 21 194 8.60 1,669 Huapanh Viengxay 17 157 8.68 1,365 Huapanh Huameuang 76 703 8.60 6,042 Huapanh Xamtay 114 1,054 7.80 8,225 Huapanh Sopbao 16 148 7.25 1,073 Huapanh Add 27 250 14.07 3,514 424 3,921 8.60 33,705

22/01/01 Annex08_District_Area_Yield_Prod.xls, 2000 District Area Yield Prod 1/2 Lao Opium Survey 2000 Estimation by District

Village Growing Applied Estimated Province District 2000 Area 2000 Yield Production Xayabouri Xayabury 20 130 8.01 1,043 Xayabouri Khop 12 78 8.01 626 Xayabouri Hongsa 14 91 8.01 730 Xayabouri Ngeun 10 65 8.01 522 Xayabouri Xienghone 16 104 8.01 835 Xayabouri Phiang 4 26 8.01 209 Xayabouri Parklai 2 13 8.01 104 Xayabouri Kenethao - - 8.01 - Xayabouri Botene - - 8.01 - Xayabouri Thongmyxay - - 8.01 - 78 508 8.01 4,068 Xieng Khuang Pek 12 92 5.96 547 Xieng Khuang Kham 30 229 5.96 1,368 Xieng Khuang Nonghed 69 527 5.91 3,118 Xieng Khuang Khoune 41 313 5.96 1,869 Xieng Khuang Morkmay 17 130 5.96 775 Xieng Khuang Phookood 9 69 6.42 442 Xieng Khuang Phaxay 2 15 5.70 87 180 1,376 5.96 8,205 Vientiane Phonhong - - Vientiane Thoulakhom - - Vientiane Keo Oudom - - Vientiane Kasy 1 10 8.76 84 Vientiane Vangvieng 1 10 8.76 84 Vientiane Feuang - - Vientiane Xanakharm - - Vientiane Mad - - Vientiane Hinhurp - - Vientiane Viengkham - - 2 19 8.79 167 Bolikhamsay Pakxanh - - 2.91 - Bolikhamsay Thaphabath - - 2.91 - Bolikhamsay Pakkading - - 2.91 - Bolikhamsay Bolikhanh - - 2.91 - Bolikhamsay Khamkheuth 15 50 3.04 152 Bolikhamsay Viengthong 7 23 2.63 61 22 73 2.92 213 Xaisombun Saysomboun 8 72 6.00 430 Xaisombun Thathom 6 54 8.19 440 Xaisombun Hom 3 27 3.05 82 Xaisombun Longxan 1 9 6.25 56 Xaisombun Phoun 7 63 6.25 392 25 224 6.25 1,400 TOTAL 1,940 19,052 8.77 167,098

22/01/01 Annex08_District_Area_Yield_Prod.xls, 2000 District Area Yield Prod 2/2 Annex 9 Map of Opium Poppy Cultivation by District.

(1 page)

Lao Annual Opium Poppy Survey 2000 Page 35

Annex 10 Map of Villages Cultivating Opium Poppy.

(1 page)

Lao Annual Opium Poppy Survey 2000 Page 36

Annex 11 2000 Opium Farm Gate Price. (1 page)

Lao Annual Opium Poppy Survey 2000 Page 37 Lao Opium Survey 2000 Opium Farm Gate Price

Average Kip Price Estimated 2000 Expected Production Price for Province (kg) Mar 99 Nov 99 Feb 00 2000 Phongsaly 31,824 179,769 316,340 278,469 309,160 Luang Namtha 12,211 UdomXay 36,536 287,980 416,333 357,387 346,531 Bokeo 2,761 3,621,000 3,600,500 3,186,470 3,281,673 Luang Prabang 36,007 340,173 483,210 391,144 359,190 Huapanh 33,705 1,486,000 2,267,078 2,228,774 1,604,970 Xayabouri 4,068 515,333 490,000 Xieng Khuang 8,205 2,127,500 2,451,887 2,139,386 2,049,600 Vientiane 167 Bolikhamsay 213 4,246,667 3,611,111 3,986,667 3,611,111 Xaisombun 1,400 National Weighted Mean Price 167,097 639,958 909,732 839,741 695,257

Base 100 = National Avg Price Expected 00

Expected Province Mar 99 Nov 99 Feb 00 Price for 2000 Phongsaly 26 45 40 44 Luang Namtha UdomXay 41 60 51 50 Bokeo 521 518 458 472 Luang Prabang 49 70 56 52 Huapanh 214 326 321 231 Xayabouri 74 70 Xieng Khuang 306 353 308 295 Vientiane Bolikhamsay 611 519 573 519 Xaisombun National Weighted Mean Price 92 131 121 100

Dollar Province Mar 99 Nov 99 Feb 00 Exp 00 Exchange rate Kip/Dollar 4425 8000 7470 7520 Phongsaly 41 40 37 41 Luang Namtha UdomXay 65 52 48 46 Bokeo 818 450 427 436 Luang Prabang 77 60 52 48 Huapanh 336 283 298 213 Xayabouri 64 66 Xieng Khuang 481 306 286 273 Vientiane Bolikhamsay 960 451 534 480 Xaisombun National Weighted Mean Price 145 114 112 92

Annex11_Opium_Price_new.xls Price Annex 12 Addiction by District

(2 pages)

Lao Annual Opium Poppy Survey 2000 Page 38 Lao Opium Survey 2000 Estimation by District

Addicts in Non Pop Opium Opium Estimated Estimate Growing Growing Total Addiction Province District 2000 Villages Villages Addicts Rate* Phongsaly Phongsaly 23,952 815 199 1,014 4.23% Phongsaly May 22,118 779 229 1,008 4.56% Phongsaly Khua 27,166 1,346 68 1,414 5.21% Phongsaly Samphanh 25,343 1,119 28 1,147 4.53% Phongsaly Boon Neua 14,457 494 149 643 4.45% Phongsaly Nhot Ou 25,024 1,923 169 2,092 8.36% Phongsaly Boontai 15,310 323 117 440 2.87% 153,370 6,798 959 7,757 5.06% Luang Namtha Namtha 37,111 897 525 1,422 3.83% Luang Namtha Sing 25,141 1,002 335 1,337 5.32% Luang Namtha Long 38,965 1,639 134 1,773 4.55% Luang Namtha Viengphoukha 14,104 289 229 518 3.67% Luang Namtha Nalae 24,148 112 567 679 2.81% 139,470 3,939 1,790 5,729 4.11% UdomXay Xay 52,841 756 877 1,633 3.09% UdomXay La 16,731 387 177 564 3.37% UdomXay Namor 28,886 413 400 813 2.81% UdomXay Nga 27,231 425 528 953 3.50% UdomXay Beng 30,186 277 571 848 2.81% UdomXay Hoon 52,414 488 1,018 1,506 2.87% UdomXay Pakbeng 24,224 240 369 609 2.51% 232,512 2,986 3,940 6,926 2.98% Bokeo Huoixai 39,401 75 954 1,029 2.61% Bokeo Tonpheung 17,093 54 399 453 2.65% Bokeo Meung 5,603 9 137 146 2.61% Bokeo Pha Oudom 32,158 153 717 870 2.71% Bokeo Paktha 15,212 140 251 391 2.57% Bokeo Special Region 2,652 20 54 74 2.79% 112,119 451 2,511 2,962 2.64% Luang Prabang Luang Prabang 65,641 176 1,480 1,656 2.52% Luang Prabang Xieng Ngeun 33,443 120 650 770 2.30% Luang Prabang Nan 28,677 126 615 741 2.58% Luang Prabang Park Ou 21,426 98 456 554 2.59% Luang Prabang Nambak 51,045 239 1,077 1,316 2.58% Luang Prabang Ngoi 40,501 390 791 1,181 2.92% Luang Prabang Pak Xeng 25,608 84 567 651 2.54% Luang Prabang Phonxay 25,088 198 484 682 2.72% Luang Prabang Chomphet 26,228 242 505 747 2.85% Luang Prabang Viengkham 38,797 529 635 1,164 3.00% Luang Prabang Phoukhoune 19,618 388 224 612 3.12% 376,071 2,590 7,484 10,074 2.68% Huapanh Xamneua 41,195 1,051 25 1,076 2.61% Huapanh Xiengkhor 18,006 135 155 290 1.61% Huapanh Viengthong 22,279 262 173 435 1.95% Huapanh Viengxay 34,230 144 307 451 1.32% Huapanh Huameuang 24,734 1,348 35 1,383 5.59% Huapanh Xamtay 52,708 768 216 984 1.87% Huapanh Sopbao 20,734 583 169 752 3.63% Huapanh Add 20,461 347 135 482 2.36% 234,345 4,638 1,216 5,854 2.50%

* Rates are from the the entire population, from 0 to 100 years old Annex12_Addiction_by_district.xls 1/2 Lao Opium Survey 2000 Estimation by District

Addicts in Non Pop Opium Opium Estimated Estimate Growing Growing Total Addiction Province District 2000 Villages Villages Addicts Rate* Xayabouri Xayabury 67,993 132 1,451 1,583 2.33% Xayabouri Khop 22,276 84 389 473 2.12% Xayabouri Hongsa 26,971 72 533 605 2.24% Xayabouri Ngeun 13,991 57 234 291 2.08% Xayabouri Xienghone 38,690 111 748 859 2.22% Xayabouri Phiang 43,790 34 1,044 1,078 2.46% Xayabouri Parklai 56,352 17 1,401 1,418 2.52% Xayabouri Kenethao 33,869 - 864 864 2.55% Xayabouri Botene 16,349 - 417 417 2.55% Xayabouri Thongmyxay 8,586 - 219 219 2.55% 328,868 509 7,299 7,808 2.37% Xieng Khuang Pek 58,563 186 1,308 1,494 2.55% Xieng Khuang Kham 42,286 253 787 1,040 2.46% Xieng Khuang Nonghed 34,620 281 334 615 1.78% Xieng Khuang Khoune 29,168 341 401 742 2.54% Xieng Khuang Morkmay 6,812 105 68 173 2.54% Xieng Khuang Phookood 20,309 125 392 517 2.55% Xieng Khuang Phaxay 13,417 17 325 342 2.55% 205,175 1,309 3,616 4,925 2.40% Vientiane Phonhong 51,391 - 837 837 1.63% Vientiane Thoulakhom 47,246 - 769 769 1.63% Vientiane Keo Oudom 17,385 - 283 283 1.63% Vientiane Kasy 22,666 4 363 367 1.62% Vientiane Vangvieng 40,626 5 653 658 1.62% Vientiane Feuang 38,461 - 626 626 1.63% Vientiane Xanakharm 31,778 - 517 517 1.63% Vientiane Mad 14,285 - 233 233 1.63% Vientiane Hinhurp 15,816 - 258 258 1.63% Vientiane Viengkham 23,044 - 375 375 1.63% 302,698 9 4,914 4,923 1.63% Bolikhamsay Pakxanh 42,026 - 1,072 1,072 2.55% Bolikhamsay Thaphabath 21,631 - 552 552 2.55% Bolikhamsay Pakkading 33,870 - 864 864 2.55% Bolikhamsay Bolikhanh 24,732 - 631 631 2.55% Bolikhamsay Khamkheuth 61,587 104 1,427 1,531 2.49% Bolikhamsay Viengthong 16,203 42 346 388 2.39% 200,048 146 4,893 5,039 2.52% Xaisombun Saysomboun 7,665 38 135 173 2.26% Xaisombun Thathom 3,243 28 38 66 2.04% Xaisombun Hom 10,907 14 256 270 2.48% Xaisombun Longxan 7,294 4 180 184 2.52% Xaisombun Phoun 8,290 39 166 205 2.47% 38,028 123 775 898 2.36% TOTAL 2,322,705 23,498 39,397 62,895

* Rates are from the the entire population, from 0 to 100 years old Annex12_Addiction_by_district.xls 2/2