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Latam Outlook 2021 LatAm Outlook 2021 Where thethe UKUK meets LatinLatin AmericaAmerican and & IberiaIberia ISBN number: 978-1-9165047-4-5 Edited by Ian Perrin, Cristina Cortes, and Joe Brandon This report has been compiled and published by Contents Canning House 126 Wigmore Street, Biographies P. 4 London, W1U 3RZ Overview P. 6 Telephone: +44 (0) 207 811 5600 Political Outlook P. 9 Email: [email protected] Regional Trends P. 9 Country Political Outlooks P. 16 Economic Outlook P. 29 Regional Trends P. 29 Country Economic Outlooks P. 32 Health Outlook P. 45 Social Outlook P. 59 Regional Overview P. 59 Perceptions of 2020 P. 60 What worries Latin America P. 60 What will happen in 2021? P. 63 Environmental Outlook P. 69 Security & Corruption Outlook P. 79 Regional Trends P. 79 Copyright © 2021, Canning House in all countries. Country Security & Corruption Outlooks P. 82 All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, Conclusions P. 96 stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, electrical, chem- ical, mechanical, optical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without the prior written permission of the publishers. Page 2 - LatAm Outlook 2021 Page 3 - LatAm Outlook 2021 Biographies Cristina Cortes, CEO, Canning House Dr Clare Wenham, Assistant Professor of Global Health Policy, London School of Economics Cristina Cortes is an Oxford and LSE politics and economics graduate. Having worked in government, Clare Wenham is Assistant Professor of Global Health Policy at London School of Economics banking and energy across a variety of commercial, and Political Science (LSE). She specialises in global health security and the politics and policy business development and government relations roles of pandemic preparedness and outbreak response, through analysis of influenza, Ebola in London, Houston, Venezuela, Colombia, Argentina and Zika. Her work considers global health governance, role of WHO, national priorities and and Brazil, in 2015 she joined Canning House, the UK’s innovative financing for pandemic control, particularly in Latin America. More recently she leading forum for Latin America and Iberia. She took has been analysing the downstream effects of global health security policy on women, with a over as CEO in 2018. forthcoming OUP book offering a feminist critique of the Zika outbreak. Her work features in The Lancet, BMJ, Security Dialogue, International Affairs, BMJ Global Health and Third World Quarterly. She previously worked at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Michael Stott, Latin America Editor, delivering projects relating to surveillance and transmission of infectious disease. Financial Times Michael Stott is the Latin America editor of the Financial Jean-Christophe Salles, CEO Latin America, Ipsos Times based in London and has reported from more than 60 countries in more than three decades as a Jean-Christophe Salles is CEO of Ipsos Latin America, based in Santiago, Chile. He has over foreign correspondent and news executive. Michael 25 years’ experience in the market research sector, having previously worked at GfK, a global reported from Latin America between 1990-1998, living German market research company, in both Latin America and his native France. He holds in Brazil, Colombia and Mexico. Michael graduated a PhD in social sciences from the University of Paris/HEC business school, and a master’s from Cambridge University with an MA in Modern degree in Marketing from Paris Arts et Métiers. Jean-Christophe has given lectures in various Languages and is a regular speaker and moderator at French universities and business schools, and has also published various papers in Marketing conferences on Latin America. magazines as well as participating as a speaker in various events throughout Latin America and Europe. João Pedro Bumachar Resende, Senior Latin America Economist, Itaú Unibanco Oliver Wack, Partner and General Manager Colombia and Andean Region, Control Risks João Pedro Bumachar Resende is responsible for covering Latin American economies at Itaú Unibanco. Oliver Wack is the General Manager for Colombia and the Andean Region for Control He holds a Business Management degree from FGV-SP Risks. Based in Bogotá, Oliver is responsible for supporting the successful execution of our (2003) and a master’s degree in Economics from PUC- clients’ operations and investments in the Andean region. Oliver’s specific areas of expertise RJ (2006). He worked in the economics department of include risk intelligence, issues management, crisis-driven investigations, stakeholder Banco BBM for two years before joining Itaú Unibanco, engagement and corporate reputation risk management, among others. also in the economics department, in October 2008. Dr David Purkey, Latin America Centre Director, Stockholm Environment Institute David Purkey directs the Stockholm Environment Institute’s regional research centre in Latin America, located in Bogotá, Colombia. This, the newest SEI centre, opened in January 2018. Prior to accepting this position, David led the Water Research Group within SEI’s US Centre for 12 years. In his prior position, David was able to put into practice his academic training in hydrology and water resources management that culminated in a Ph.D. from the University of California, Davis. His primary research interest is the proper use of modeling and analysis within multi-actor, multi-objective negotiations related to the management of shared water resources. Page 4 - LatAm Outlook 2021 Page 5 - LatAm Outlook 2021 However, the overall objectives have not changed. As before, this second Canning House LatAm The Canning House LatAm Outlook continues Outlook focuses on the six major countries - Brazil, to get beneath superficial headlines to what is Mexico, Argentina, Colombia, Chile and Peru. really going on in Latin America. It addresses Wider Regional developments are considered fundamental questions such as: through the lens of their impact on those countries. Similarly, developments in the wider world – e.g., • What are the forces shaping Latin America’s emanating from the USA or China – are also social, political, economic, and business looked at in terms of their impact on “the big six”. environment? The rationale is that these are the countries that businesses have told us they are predominantly • What are the likely impacts on people, the interested in. No value judgements are implied environment, government policies and as to the intrinsic importance of other countries; economic development, and trade and nor does it imply that there are not perfectly good Overview investment? individual business opportunities to be found elsewhere in LatAm. Cristina Cortes, CEO, Canning House • What are the resulting risks and uncertainties facing the major countries of interest to As previously, most of the focus will be on the businesses, investors and NGOs? next five years. Because there are legislative, Last year, I introduced the Canning House LatAm Outlook with the following statement: presidential and even constitutional elections In the process, the report and its associated events taking place in four of our six majors this year, will seek to address questions such as: against a continued backdrop of considerable Nothing happens in a vacuum. We cannot assess, let alone anticipate, risks uncertainty over the progress of both vaccine unless we have a good understanding of the factors driving them. Business • How will the Region fare in terms of vaccine rollout and economic recovery, looking beyond roll-out – compared to other geographies? the next five years will be exceptionally difficult. conditions are driven by economics which in turn tend to be governed by But, because there are strategic structural issues political forces; the latter are the result of (often not clearly articulated) social • There is much talk in the US and Europe impacting the region which will take more than pressures which, in their turn, are deeply influenced by culture and history. of “building back better” post-Covid-19 – one presidential or congressional term to fix, we If you have a good grip on all these inter-related forces, then very few things addressing climate change and social injustice will continue to dare to look further and consider as they recover. In LatAm is it more a question mega-trends out towards a 10-year horizon. We should come as a complete surprise. of whether the Region recovers at all or will also consider what further forces - or grim whether it faces another “lost decade”? surprises - might knock current trends off-course. While that statement undoubtedly holds true, We have great continuity and we have also added • Populism might be on the retreat in the the fact remains that our expectations and great value in this 2021 edition of the Canning USA, but what about Argentina and Mexico predictions were, in March 2020, about to be House LatAm Outlook. I am delighted to say that (left-wing populism) and Brazil (right-wing completely upended by Covid-19. Not only has our partners from 2020 are still with us – the FT’s populism)? Could historically conservative the virus changed the Outlook for Latin America Latin America editor Michael Stott, Itau Bank of countries like Chile and Peru turn populist after politically, economically, socially and from a Brazil, Ipsos and Control Risks. And we have added their upcoming elections? security perspective; it also added great impetus to contributors from the LSE’s Global Health Policy Canning House’s objective to progressively expand faculty and from the Stockholm • When it comes to Sustainable Development, the scope of our Canning House LatAm Outlook – Environment Institute. can the Region exorcise its deforestation in this instance to include both health and demons and instead take on a global the environment. leadership role? Page 6 - LatAm Outlook 2021 Page 7 - LatAm Outlook 2021 Political Outlook Michael Stott, Latin America Editor, Financial Times Regional Trends The long difficult road out of the pandemic The coronavirus pandemic hit Latin America with wealth inequalities and large informal economies.
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